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By Jimmy, 11/22/2011 9:30 am

A few weeks ago I scoffed at the idea that Bobby Valentine was a serious candidate for the managerial role in Boston. Fast forward to today, and it seems as if he is not only a candidate, but the odds-on favorite to win the position.

The 62-year-old Valentine’s most-recent MLB gig was 10 years ago, when he finished in last place with an overpaid, aging Mets team (my apologies: “overpaid & aging” and “Mets team” is a redundancy). I admit to not being very familiar with Valentine’s managerial tactics. Neither is Dan Shaughnessy, it seems. However, that did not stop Danny Boy from penning an entire column on why Valentine is the right guy for the job.  Oh, sure, Dan mentions interesting tidbits, like the fact that Valentine is Ralph Branca’s son-in-law, and the fact that he has a cult following in Japan. Not much was said about Valetine’s actual track record and tendencies as a manager, though.

I think that I should be an astronaut. Why?  Well, I may or may not be a direct descendant of the Bourbon Kings of Naples, and I can belch really, rally loudly on command.  The above statement makes just about as much sense as much of Shaughnessy’s column promoting Valentine.  Here is the most memorable trait of Bobby Valentine: he once wore a Groucho Marx mask while hiding in the dugout after being ejected. It made Sportscenter.

Valentine is a pseudo-celebrity, and Dan’s one salient point is that this might help him in the leadership department. Players might be more prone to respect a guy with star power. While I can agree with that, there’s a whole lot more that should go into this type of analysis, and as of now, I haven’t read much else in the media’s argument for Valentine.

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By Jimmy, 11/15/2011 10:57 am

As the departure of bullpen ace Jonathan Papelbon leaves a glaring hole in an already-unstable bullpen, the Red Sox will now need to find an impact arm or two to fill his absence.

There are some direct way to go about doing this, such as offer a large contract to a notable MLB closer such as Ryan Madson (the guy who Papelbon is replacing in Philadelphia). However, as we’ve seen with Papelbon’s new contract, pitchers with an established reputation as a closer will demand top dollar in this free-agent market. Let’s face it, teams aren’t just paying for the numbers, they are paying for the “bulldog mentality” or whatever intangibles are supposedly inherent in a guy who can finish close baseball games on a nightly basis. The magnitude of impact that these intangibles have on performance (assuming they even exist) is quite debatable, which leads me to believe that this may be an area where a more savvy GM can save a bit of coin without sacrificing too much in terms of actual talent.

I’ve always been a strong supporter of two types of moves:

1. Acquiring a middle reliever with good peripheral numbers but little/no closer experience.
2. Attempting to convert an inconsistent starting pitcher with good “stuff” into a reliever.

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By Jimmy, 10/31/2011 9:14 am

The solid play of Marco Scutaro in 2011 made it a certainty that the Red Sox would pick up his $6 million option for 2012. The decision is made even easier by Jed Lowrie’s inability to stay healthy, as well as Jose Iglesias’ inability to hit AAA pitching.  While the latter might change, it doesn’t seem like the former ever will, and Lowrie will always be a “10th man” type of player.

Keeping in mind the fact that Scutaro celebrated his 36th birthday yesterday, the Sox will need to brace themselves for the inevitable plummit in productivity which may or may not occur next season.  The easy approach would be to use a loose RHP/LHP platoon with Lowrie, who hits left-hand pitching very well.  A more bold approach would be to kick the tires on free-agent superstar Jose Reyes, shop Lowrie, and use Scutaro as a utility infielder. This, of course, is less likely.

Other notes:

• In relation to my Reyes note above, the worst possible effect of the John Lackey / Carl Crawford contracts would be Red Sox management and ownership becoming irrationally gun shy on the free agent market. Even ignoring the strong possibility that Crawford turns things around next season, there have been many, many success stories resulting from teams taking on long-term risk in free agency. Consider where the Yankees would have been without C.C. Sabathia over the past few years, or the Cardinals without Matt Holliday. Or, the 2004-2007 Red Sox without one Manuel Aristides Ramirez.  We can only hope that Ben Cherington isn’t the reactionary type.
• The Sox begin interviewing candidates for the manager role today, starting with Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin. My early wager is on DeMarlo Hale being promoted internally, but I suppose a lot of that will depend on the scope of the political fallout (if any) from Terry Francona’s departure.

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By Jimmy, 10/25/2011 4:20 pm

Brand new Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington just now confirmed a rumor that had been floating around this morning: troubled pitcher John Lackey will indeed undergo Tommy John surgery. Recovery is typically 12-16 months, which means he will miss the entire 2012 season.

From looking at his track record over the course of the last several years, it’s pretty clear that his durability and effectiveness have both been steadily deteriorating, at a relatively young age. He has had bouts of elbow discomfort in the past, so the TJS news isn’t exactly a bombshell.

I’m not happy with his 2011 performance, but I’m also not very comfortable with the way he’s treated here.  From Bob Stanley, to Jose Offerman, to Julio Lugo, and now Lackey…the angry mob mentality displayed by most of the fan base just isn’t my cup of tea.

Here’s hoping for a year of tranquility.

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By Jimmy, 10/21/2011 12:57 pm

Pitching coach Curt Young is the latest staff member to grab the nearest unoccupied escape pod and blast his way to safety. Young, who I was very optimistic about when the Sox initially hired him last Novermber,  returns to his previous job in Oakland.

While the Red Sox clearly have their problems, the Oakland A’s have not had a winning season in 5 years.  I guess, sometimes, the low-hanging fruit tastes pretty sweet.

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By Jimmy, 8/1/2011 9:03 am

This is why I generally don’t like hearing other fans (or media personalities) question an athlete’s injury. You never really know when it’s something like this.

For example, a relatively well-known local writer Tweeted this gem last week:

Clay Buchholz will throw off mound Monday despite feeling “stuff” in his back. It’s time for little camper Clay to buck up and pitch thru it

Now, baseball is not this particular writer’s forte, and the view from outsiders tends to be that the purveyors of our national pastime are “soft” in comparison to their mullet-headed ice skating cousins from the north. However, the statement doesn’t look any less idiotic when we are now faced with the news that Clay Buchholz has a stress fracture in his lower back, and his season is likely over.

In related news, the Sox did trade for left-handed starter Erik Bedard.  More on that (along with an updated prospect list) next.

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By Jimmy, 7/5/2011 10:12 am

Now that the actual MLB All-Star rosters have been constructed, it’s time to do what every other baseball fan with spare times does at this point: pedantically critique the selections and offer our own unsolicited opinion on the matter.

Here are my 2011 All-Star rosters:

The names in blue are players I selected, but were left off of the real All-Star teams.  The names in grey are the final omissions from my All-Star squads, names that I had difficulty leaving out.  I did adhere to the mandatory representative rule, so every MLB team has an All-Star amongst my selections.

Now, let’s take a look at the scrubs; the guys who don’t deserve to be going to Phoenix for this year’s Mid-Summer Classic:

American League Scrubs:

1) Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees
No commentary is really needed.  It’s been said thousands of times before.  Jeter is a living, breathing example of a flawed system.  If he really did “respect the game” or whatever, he would gracefully bow out and allow a more deserving player to take in the festivities (there are about 5 other shortstops who fit this description).

2) Jose Valverde, RP, Tigers
In modern-day baseball, as a general rule, closers tend to be overrated and middle-relievers tend to be underrated.  The All-Star game is an annual reminder of this.  Jose Valverde averages 5 walks per 9 innings, and is the third-best reliever on his own team.  I could probably find at least 20 other relief pitchers in the American League who I’d rather call upon in a close situation.

3) Michael Young, DH, Rangers
I guess I just don’t understand the logic of choosing an actual DH to be the “backup DH” on your team, unless that DH happens to be the best hitter available for the spot (Young isn’t). I’d much rather have seen Konerko in this role.

National League Scrubs:

1) Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves
The Jeter selection is almost understandable, because he was chosen by idiots.  You don’t blame a dog for shitting in your yard, you just grab a plastic bag and deal with it.  This, however, is ridiculous.  An actual baseball person selected Chipper Jones to be an All-Star, in a year where he is one of the most unproductive third basemen in the league.  Yes, he’s a future Hall of Famer.  Yes, he deserves recognition for his play over the past 18 years.  But, this isn’t the proper forum for that.

2)  Jonny Venters, RP, Braves
Yeah, an ironic choice, given what I wrote about Jose Valverde.  Venters is a middle reliever who was chosen instead of the closer on his own team (Kimbrel) who is having a much more dominant season.  It looks like the selection was based upon ERA, and not much else.

3) Brian Wilson, RP, Giants
He’s a MLB poster boy, and he’ll probably go to a few more All-Star Games before his career is over, but 2011 hasn’t been a standout year for him.  There are a bunch of other more deserving pitchers.

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By Jimmy, 6/20/2011 8:38 am

6/19/11: Red Sox 12, Brewers 3

Box Score

The Ageless Wonder once again turned in a stunning performance, allowing only 5 base runners over the course of 8 strong innings.  Unlike most Tim Wakefield starts of late, he was treated with plenty of run support against Milwaukee, as 8 of their 14 hits were for extra bases.

Top 5 Heroes:

Note the abnormally low WPAs (the entire team added up to around 50%).  You’ll see this when the game gets out of hand early, as it did yesterday afternoon.  Once the bottom of the first inning had ended as the score was 6-0, the probability of the Red Sox winning was over 90%.  Everything else that occurred in the game, such as Pedroia’s 6th inning HR, wouldn’t have much of an impact on win probability.

This is one of the strengths of WPA, as a metric.  It distinguishes the important plays from the ones that occur in garbage time.

Buzz Kill:

Clay Buchholz (back) and Carl Crawford (hamstring) are both on the disabled list, and both hope to return during the series in their home state, at Houston.  I talked about Buchholz, but the Crawford situation is just as troubling, if not more.  Speed is, of course, a big part of Crawford’s game.  If hamstring problems become chronic for him as he ages,   the Red Sox will be stuck with a very expensive, very mediocre outfielder.

Quote of the Day:

“It had good movement on it. Some of them went in to right-handers, some of them went in to left-handers. It did what good knuckleballs do. It was frustrating.”

- Milwaukee 1B Prince Fielder, on the knuckleball

By the way, if you’re wondering whether or not Wakefield ever faced Prince’s dad, Cecil Fielder…he did.  30 times.  Like father, like son; Cecil hit .111/.200/.148 against Wakefield.

Prospect Watch:

• SS A – The short-season Lowell Spinners started their 2011 campaign over the weekend, and there are a couple of interesting players up in the Cradle of the Industrial Revolution.  The one that stands out, however, is third baseman Garin Cecchini, who is regarded as one of the best hitting prospects in the system.  In his debut on Friday, he went 2 for 4 with a double and a SB.
• R – The Gulf Coast League Red Sox begin play today.  This is where you’ll see a few of the high school draftees and the prospects who graduated from the Dominican Summer League.  Two names jump of the page right now: shortstop Jose Vinicio and outfielder Kendrick Perkins.

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By Jimmy, 6/14/2011 8:43 am

Just a few quick thoughts as I try to get back on my regular schedule after a few grueling weeks.  Yes; recaps, previews, and rankings will continue here posthaste.

• HBO’s Game of Thrones is currently the best show on television, and last Sunday’s episode left me unable to sleep.  With all the different versions of “NCIS”, “Top Chef”, and “30 Yuppies Fighting Over an Expensive Prostitute” (or whatever that show is actually called), it’s great to once again have something worth using the DVR space on.
• If the NBA Finals had gone a different way, I probably would have lost 100% of my interest in the league.  Lebron James is simply too despicable.  This guy actually made statements after the game to the effect of “It’s God’s plan for me to eventually win” and “My critics are just bitter because they’re poor and miserable”, and such.  Sure, I am poor and miserable, but correlation doesn’t equal causation, Bron!
• Before the 2010 season, I predicted a bust-out All Star campaign from Jacoby Ellsbury that included a modest increase in power to go along with his high batting average and dominance of the basepaths.  Of course, he had his collision with Adrian Beltre and that never happened.  However, I feel somewhat vindicated considering his torrid play this season.  Right now, he is one of the best lead-off hitters in the game.
• Beer recommendation: this is something that I imagine would be very difficult to get outside of the Boston area, but there is a local craft brewery called “Pretty Things” that has a few outstanding selections.  Yeah, the name is a little dainty and they’ll likely serve it to you in a tulip glass, but once you swallow your pride and have a sip or two, you’ll thank me.
• While it seems like just about everyone on the Red Sox roster is on fire, the one guy who was hitting back in April has cooled down considerably.  Jed Lowrie is hitting .226/.293/.323  since May 1st.
• J.D. Drew has also been quiet this year, but sadly, I think it’s a function of him getting old.  Drew, of course, was always injury prone, but when you hit your mid thirties, the tightness and the soreness that once would go away in a 24 hour span now lingers for quite a bit longer.  It’s not a fun thing to encounter.
• Catching prospect Ryan Lavarnway, a guy who has shown an improvement in his defense this year, has been promoted to Pawtucket.  He is certainly someone to keep an eye on.
• The one thing that will get me out of my seat quickly: seeing Sarah McLachlan appear on the television.  As soon as her Canadian face pops up on my screen, a frantic scramble for the remote ensues.  I swear, I’m like Vince Wilfork going after a loose ball; my lightning-quick hands and feet propelled by immense fury and hunger as I grab that piece of plastic and push either the “Channel Up” or “Channel Down” button (it doesn’t matter which).  I have nothing against Sarah or her music, but I just don’t feel like seeing any more footage of a one-eyed puppy, you know?
• A re-worked prospect list will be published shortly, however, I’m not going to include any of the draftees until they actually sign.

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By Jimmy, 6/6/2011 10:41 pm

So, it looks like neither Bell nor Norris will be happening, as the Sox took a college outfielder with their final pick in Day One of the draft.  Jackie Bradley was one of the best outfielders in college baseball as a sophomore last season before hurting his wrist and having a mediocre junior year.  This sort of follows the strategy the Sox employed when drafting both Anthony Ranaudo and Bryce Brentz in 2010; taking polished college players whose stock dropped due to a recent injury.

He’s a quick, athletic left-handed hitting outfielder.  The Sox have gravitated towards this type of player several times in recent drafts, and it’s worked out fairly well for them.

On that note…good night.  More during Day Two tomorrow afternoon.

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By Jimmy,

This pick took a little wind out of my sails, as I was expecting the Sox to go after one of the two ultra-expensive high school talents still on the draft board (Josh Bell or Daniel Norris).  However, I really can’t get too disappointed with a 6’6″ left-handed high schooler whose fastball touches 94 MPH.

Aside from a decent fastball, Henry Owens also throws an array of breaking balls that could prove difficult to hit for the big left-handed hitters in professional ball.
As with the others, more later.

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By Jimmy,

The Connecticut contingent of Red Sox Nation (this generally refers to any denizens of the Constitution State residing east of Interstate 91) ought to be pleased at the Sox’ first pick in the draft.  Matt Barnes is a 6’4″, 205 lb right-handed pitcher from the UConn Huskies.

Barnes supposedly has a pretty good fastball in the mid to low 90′s.  I just saw some film on his on the MLB Network, and a couple of things stood out:

1) In an interview, he referred to his fastball the “no-seam fastball”.  He then demonstrated his grip for the camera, and sure enough, both his index and middle fingers rest firmly on the leather portion of the ball, between the seams.  You don’t see that very often.

2) I’m sure I’m not the only one that balked a bit when he said “My favorite player is Joba Chamberlain“.  I mean, I get that he’s a Yankees fan given the geography, but does he really have to pick the most loathsome player in the entire league?  “My favorite player is the fat, drunken, underachieving hick on the most unlikable team in professional sports“.   Um, red flag anyone?

Seriously though, I’ll update this with a more thorough scouting report once I gather more information.  In summary, the Red Sox appeared to go with a relatively safe, projectable pick at #19, drafting a polished college-age workhorse who could slide into the back of the rotation in a few years if he stays healthy.

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By Jimmy,

Early June is usually a busy time in sports (mostly of the non-baseball variety), so the Amateur Draft will occasionally sneak up on you if your mind is on other things, as it did to me here.

This is one of those years that you will want to pay close attention, as the Red Sox have 4 picks in the first 40, and their rivals down in St. Petersburg have 10 picks (!) in the first 60.

We’ll provide coverage of the Red Sox draft picks in real-time, or close to it, depending on my work schedule.

As far as a preview goes, there are quite a bit of interesting prospects but the one that stands out to me is a high school outfielder from Texas by the name Josh Bell.  Bell is committed to attend the University of Texas and has reportedly made statements suggesting he will be very difficult to sign, but the Red Sox are known to pursue this type of prospect and have the financial resources to make just about any high school kid break their academic commitments.

Much to my chagrin, the first day of the draft is now held at night; it will be televised tonight at 6pm on the MLB Network.  It’s a practice that began last year, and I still haven’t warmed to the idea.  For decades, professional baseball has slowly been migrating from a daytime sport to a nighttime one.  The new MLB Draft is just the latest example of that.  I should probably just stop my bitching and accept it.  So, I will.

Heck in here tonight for draft coverage and commentary.

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By Jimmy, 4/15/2011 9:46 am

As everyone suspected, the actual long-term contract between 1B Adrian Gonzalez and the Red Sox was just a formality.  Until now.

Per multiple reports, the Sox will announce Gonzalez’ seven year $154 million contract today.  The slugger’s average annual salary of $22 million dollars makes his the highest paid player on the team.

Based on what we believe Adrian can do offensively, I’d say the money is worth it.  Like everything else, we just need to see those paper projections converted to real-life performance.  The first few weeks of the season have been a glaring reminder that this doesn’t always happen.

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By Jimmy, 4/11/2011 3:06 pm

Lost in the smoke of the Sox/Yanks series was the news that the Red Sox have signed pitcher Clay Buchholz to a new 4 year deal (plus two team option years).

Depending on incentives and optionality, the deal could be worth between $7.6 million AAV over 4 years and $9.45 million AAV over 6 years (I’m not including 2011 in the calculation, which is why my numbers differ from Abraham’s in the linked article).

Unless Buchholz suffers a serious injury, which is always a possibility when dealing with young pitchers, he should have no problem performing up to the value of that contract.  For some perspective, Fangraphs.com estimates Buchholz’s 2010 season as being worth $14.7 million dollars.  He may not be that good ever again, but at $9 million a year (roughly half of John Lackey’s annual salary) he doesn’t need to be.

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By Jimmy, 4/8/2011 4:24 pm

Some breaking news on the Red Sox radio broadcast: Manny Ramirez, on the roster of the Tampa Bay Rays, has announced his retirement from professional baseball.

More on this later.

Update: There’s been some murmuring regarding a drug-related issue.  If this is actually a second violation, and not some residual issue from the first time he was caught, then a) he’s officially pissed away his Hall of Fame chances, and b) he’s officially the dumbest player in baseball history.

Update 4:40 pm:  It is a new violation.  Manny failed another drug test during spring training.  He was facing a 100 (one hundred) game suspension, so he decided to instead retire. Sigh…

Here’s an old piece I wrote on Manny, ranking the top “Manny Ramirez Moments” during his time in a Red Sox uniform.

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By Jimmy, 4/6/2011 10:26 am

The Sox can officially cross “But, we’re playing a good team!” off the list of available excuses, as the lowly Cleveland Indians silenced the high-priced Sox lineup in front of a rowdy group about 60 or 70 Indians fans.  Josh Beckett pitched fairly well despite some control issues, but the  brunt of this loss falls squarely on the primarily left-handed lineup that was dominated by a mediocre soft-tossing AAAA-caliber righty.

Pie of Shame:
.40 – Carl Crawford: 0 for 4 and a weak attempt to throw out a tagging runner from shallow LF.
.25 - Adrian Gonzalez: 0 for 4 against the aforementioned right-hander.  These are the types of pitchers that Gonzo and Crawford should be feasting on.
.25 - Jacoby Ellsbury: he’s started off well, so last night was certainly a buzzkill.
.10 - Josh Beckett: He wasn’t bad, but 100 pitches in 5 innings isn’t a good thing in terms of bullpen preservation.  Remember, Dice-K is pitching tonight.  Those relievers might be needed.

Silver Lining: The bullpen was magnificent again, striking out 8 hitters (!) in 3 innings of work.  Daniel bard seems to have recovered nicely from his disastrous appearance in Texas.

Notes: If you’re craving some baseball that won’t give you the urge to put the barrel of a shotgun in your mouth, there is good news; the minor leagues begin play tomorrow.

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By Jimmy, 3/15/2011 9:58 am

It’s been assumed over the past few months that the Red Sox had some sort of verbal contract agreement in place with Adrian Gonzalez’ camp, and they were delaying the announcement in a clever (and possibly unethical) attempt to dodge additional luxury tax penalties.  However, according to the slugger’s agent, that’s not true.

There’s two ways of looking at this:

1. There actually is a loose deal in place, and the agent is just playing ball.  He’s saying the right things in order to not upset Bud Selig, who I assume would go apeshit if it was revealed that the Red Sox postponed a contract announcement to evade luxury taxes.  Selig has already fined John Henry $500,000 (the equivalent of $100 for you and me) for speaking out against MLB’s socialism this winter; the Sox are clearly on his radar screen.
2. The agent speaks the truth.  There is no deal in place, and it’s quite possible that Adrian will test the market in the fall.

I happen to think that scenario #1 is more likely.  However, if I’m wrong and we’re looking at scenario #2, remember that Albert Pujols will be a free agent along with Gonzalez.  Since the Yankees are completely set at first base for the next few years, the Sox would have to be the front-runners to sign him, right?  At the very least, it gives the team a little bit of leverage at the negotiating table.

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By Jimmy, 2/9/2011 4:31 pm

Adrian Gonzalez, who wore #23 during his tenure in San Diego, has told reporters that he has no connection to his old number (currently taken by Mike Cameron) and will be wearing #28 for the Red Sox.

That’s pretty cool. I fully expected him to negotiate for #23 with Cameron, offering a Rolex or some suits as barter. By not giving a shit about his uniform number, he displays an air of selflessness and humbleness; good traits for a new teammate.

I know I’m reading way too much into this. It’s February, cut me some slack.

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By Jimmy, 2/8/2011 5:04 pm

Per Nick Cafardo, the Red Sox have signed former Yankee reliever Alfredo Aceves to a major league contract after the right-hander was non-tendered by New York. Aceves is coming off of back surgery, and will likely miss much of spring training.

He’s only 28 and he boasts a career ERA of 3.21 (142 ERA+) in 126 innings, however, his BABIP during that stretch is an unsustainable .239.  He’s not really a strikeout pitcher or a ground ball pitcher, but his pinpoint command of a four pitch arsenal makes him a solid bullpen candidate.

If healthy, he’s probably an upgrade over Scott Atchison, but I wouldn’t expect to see him on the Opening Day roster.

Update: Various sources indicate that the Sox envision Aceves as a starter. Like I said above, I think he’s been helped a bit by luck during his brief MLB career, so he’s not someone I would want to see starting many games here. He’d be fine as an emergency starter / long-relief type. Essentially, he’s a possible replacement for Tim Wakefield if this is the year that the knuckleballer finally decides that enough is enough.