Comments Off

By Jimmy, 2/3/2011 12:43 pm

Big news concerning the Yankees: Andy Pettitte has decided to retire according to various reports.

Pettitte would have easily been penciled into the Yankees rotation had he decided to pitch in 2011. As of right now, the 4th and 5th starters in the New York depth chart appear to be Freddy Garcia (yes, the guy who pitched for Seattle 1,000 years ago) and Ivan Nova.

Of course, in today’s world of sports, “retiring” doesn’t actually mean retiring. I’d say the probability of Pettitte being the #5 starter on the Yankees in 2012 is around 50%. But, it appears that they will need to scramble a bit to fill out the back-end of that rotation in the short term.

Comments (4)

By Jimmy, 1/11/2011 11:20 am

Managers should really adhere to the MLB uniform rules, like they did in the old days...wait, what?

2010 Record: 81-81
Run Scoring: 4.09 runs per game (11th out of 14)
Run Prevention: 3.86 runs per game (1st out of 14) 

The A’s 2nd place finish in the AL West last season was a tad unexpected, as the team’s young pitching staff managed to dominate the American League.  Under the tutelage of pitching coach Curt Young, the A’s rotation has seemingly perfected the art of inducing ground balls to a science, as they managed to prevent runs despite modest strikeout rates. 

As most of their key pitchers are cost-controlled and will be returning in 2011, the A’s spent the offseason finding creative ways to improve their glaring weakness: offense.  The team is finally rid of Eric Chavez after years of gauze-wrapped disappointment, and Rajai Davis will no longer be creating outs. 

While the offense should be better, the biggest question facing this team will be whether or not the Oakland pitching staff can rediscover the magic they found in 2010 now that Curt Young has been ripped away by an evil big-market team. 

Let’s look at the projected roster: 

Suzuki and Kouzmanoff, both in their prime, should hit a little bit better than they did in 2010, while Ellis is a good bet to regress as he enters his mid-thirties.  DeJesus and Willingham are both significant improvements to what was an anemic Oakland outfield last year, while Coco Crisp should be decent in centerfield as long as he remains healthy. 

As much as I like Trevor Cahill, I can’t see him continuing to post an ERA under 3.00 with that strikeout rate of his.  He’ll be decent, but expect a few more batted balls to sneak through in 2011.  However, the rotation as a whole should perform reasonably well. 

Best Case Scenario: Barton continues to add power and becomes Kevin Youkilis 2.0, Matsui rakes, the rotation pitches as well as they did last year, and the A’s win roughly 95 games and beat out Texas for the AL West title. 

Worst Case Scenario: Willingham struggles against AL pitching, Matsui and Ellis decline drastically, and the rotation proves that 2010 was a fluke.  A’s finish in 3rd place, a few games under .500. 

Conclusion: This is a team whose Pythagorean record in 2010 was 85-77, and they appear to have addressed several weaknesses this offseason.  With a slew of good, young pitchers under their control and an improving offense, we could be seeing the beginning of a steak of success similar to 2000-2003 (i.e. the “Moneyball” years). 

Projected record: 91-71

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 1/10/2011 5:04 pm

It looks like the Red Sox are somewhat confident that Hideki Okajima will win the last remaining spot in the team’s bullpen this spring, since they reportedly signed him to a guaranteed $1.75 million for 2011, a contract that could exceed $2 million if certain incentives are met.

In related news, the Cubs have claimed catcher Max Ramirez off of waivers after the Sox removed him from the 40-man roster to make room for Okajima.  Not really shocking news, since Ramirez would have had to face waivers eventually once the Sox designated him for assignment after spring training (assuming he wouldn’t have beaten out Jason Varitek for the backup catcher spot – a fair assumption indeed).

I’m not a big fan of the Okajima signing.  He’s a pitcher in his late-30′s who has been declining steadily over time.    Left-hander Rich Hill was very impressive in Pawtucket last year, and appears more than able to handle a pseudo-specialist role.  While there are a handful of candidates for the final bullpen spot, the money given to Okajima seems to indicate that the job is his to lose.  Hopefully, the money isn’t a factor in the decision of who makes the team this spring.

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 1/7/2011 10:06 am

The State of Massachusetts gave John Henry and the Red Sox a Dikembe Mutombo style finger wagging yesterday, denying them the tax credits they planned on using to move the fences in by nine feet.  As a result of this, the renovation has been placed on hold indefinitely.

Not really the best PR move for the Sox, since they cited safety concerns as their primary reason for moving in the fences.

The whole idea seemed odd in the first place.  If anyone can find any records of an injury caused by the “narrow bullpen” in the 100 year history of Fenway Park, please let me know.

Other tidbits:

• The catcher picked up by Sox on waivers, Max Ramirez, is out of options and will need to pass through waivers (again) in order to be sent to the minors.  Note, this is the guy who came very close to being traded for Mike Lowell early in the 2010 season.
• From the same article liked above, the Sox currently have the 19th and 26th overall picks in this year’s Amateur Draft, in addition to two sandwich picks (three if a team signs Felipe Lopez).
• I’m a day late on this, but as you’ve heard, Boston Herald sportswriter Steve Buckley announced that he was gay yesterday.  Bold move, considering a large chunk of the Herald’s target community considers traits like “progressive” and “educated” to be bad things.  I can’t imagine it will be fun for him to work in the same building as Howie Carr and friends.  Best of luck to WEEI’s baseball trivia king.

Comments (7)

By Jimmy, 1/6/2011 10:16 am

In case you missed the announcement yesterday, here are the results of this year’s Hall of Fame vote:

Alomar and Blyleven will both deservedly get in.  The names highlighted in that sad shade of blue will be dropped off of future ballots (Parker due to the 15 year rule, the others due to the <5% rule).  A few thoughts:

• OK, I get the non votes for guys like McGwire and Palmeiro.  I don’t agree with it, but I get it.  However, the only reason to not vote for Jeff Bagwell is if you are accusing him of using roids / HGH.  His performance was obviously Hall-worthy.  Shouldn’t the null hypothesis be an assumption of innocence?  Why do we insist that Alomar is clean while Bagwell isn’t?  People have really swallowed the idea that steroids = home runs (and vice versa), and that’s unfortunate.
• I’m not a Kevin Brown fan, and a small part of me is laughing at him now, but he really got screwed here.  Postseason notwithstanding, Brown’s career was nearly identical to Curt Schilling’s, and I’m guessing Curt will be elected without much resistance (as he should be).  There is no doubt that Brown was a better pitcher than say, Jack Morris.
• I was expecting more of a groundswell of support for Tim Raines on this year’s ballot, but it looks like he has stagnated at around 40%.  Not a good sign for him.
• Prediction for 2012: Barry Larkin is the sole inductee.

Unrelated gripe:

I often consider getting more into biking, since part of my commute includes 1.5 miles of walking and Boston has become more bike-friendly recently.  However, certain encounters make me not want to become a part of that culture, like this morning, for instance:

Me: (walking on a sidewalk near the BU Bridge in 20 degree weather, listening to loud music on headphones)
Biker: “LEFT!!” (in a frustrated “Oh come on!” sort of tone)
Me: (realizing he had said this a few times and I hadn’t heard it, now stepping aside): “sorry man”
Biker: (after pedaling safely 15 yards away from me): “DICK!!”
Me: sigh…

I refuse to become that guy.  Walking is just fine.

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 1/5/2011 10:44 am

If you are 30-ish, and a nerd, this image will likely bring back memories.

2010 Record: 57-105
Run Scoring: 3.62 runs per game (16th out of 16)
Run Prevention: 5.35 runs per game (16th out of 16th)

There’s not a whole lot to be said.  The Pirates, a team that has been bad for nearly 20 years, were historically terrible in 2010.  By far the worst team in baseball; the team with the worst offense and the worst pitching.  Their 105 losses were the highest total by the franchise since 1952.

Last year’s atrocities aside, there is a glass-half full way to look at this team.  First and foremost: things can only get better from here.  The Pirates cannot lose more than 105 games (right? RIGHT?).  Secondly, and most importantly, the team features some very talented young players with very high ceilings.  Both Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez are possible superstars in the making, and both Neil Walker and Jose Tabata appear to be decent players on the rise.

The harsh reality, however, is that the team’s ownership doesn’t seem to be interested in spending money.  Hopeful Pirates fans might point to the turnaround experienced by the Detroit Tigers after their 119 loss season in 2003, but unlike the Pirates, the Tigers ownership has been willing to sign big paychecks.  The team hasn’t been good enough in the draft to rely on cost-controlled talent like Tampa Bay has done in recent years (it’s a pity that they were just “good” enough to miss the boat on Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg).

With all that said, let’s  see how the team looks going into the 2011 season:

Like I mentioned earlier, there are a few reasons to tune into Pirates games in 2011.  Pedro Alvarez will be 24-years-old, and should provide some much-needed offense after fully usurping the job from Andy Laroche.  Also, Andrew McCutchen could develop into one of the best centerfielders in the game in the next year or two.

While the offense should improve a bit, the pitching will still be terrible.  The Pirates late-inning bullpen options  (Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan) are decent, but they shouldn’t be expected to replicate last year’s success, and the team’s awful starting rotation won’t allow them to pitch with the lead very often.

Best Case Scenario: Alvarez emerges as an elite offensive third baseman, and McCutchen and Walker continue to improve.  The Pirates finish in last place again, but not by a large margin.

Worst Case Scenario: One of their young players gets hurt, and the team replicates 2010.

Conclusion: The highlight of the team’s summer will be making the first overall selection in the 2011 Amateur Draft this June.  They really can’t afford screw that one up.

Projected record: 64-98

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 12/18/2010 11:02 am

As Emperor Palpatine would say, the Red Sox bullpen construction appears to be “complete” and the relief corps is now “fully operational”.  Boston has agreed to terms with Dan Wheeler (I described him here a few days ago).

Right now, the Red Sox bullpen is looking like this:

Jonathan Papelbon, RHP
Dan Bard, RHP
Bobby Jenks, RHP
Dan Wheeler, RHP
Scott Atchison, RHP
Tim Wakefield, RHP
Obligatory Lefty, LHP

“Obligatory Lefty” will be one out of a group of Rich Hill, Felix Doubront, Lenny DiNardo, and Andrew Miller.  It probably won’t be decided until late March, but I’ll make a very premature prediction: Rich Hill makes the team, Felix Doubront joins the rotation in Pawtucket in an effort to develop him as a starting pitcher, Lenny DiNardo carpools with Doubront to Pawtucket, and Andrew Miller is released during Spring Training.

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 12/17/2010 11:38 am

Yesterday, we reported that the Red Sox have an agreement in place (pending a physical) with Bobby Jenks for $12 million dollars over two years.

We’re now hearing that the Yankees have signed reliever Pedro Feliciano to a slightly less expensive deal ($8 million over two years).

To summarize:

Note: Before we fall in love with the Jenks contract, let’s wait for the physical tomorrow morning.  Normally, the term “pending a physical” is no big deal.  However, in this case…

…we’ll go ahead and wait to hear from the man with the stethoscope.

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 12/16/2010 3:51 pm

There have been recent reports that the Red Sox are on the verge of signing right-handed reliever Bobby Jenks.

Jenks is a behemoth with closer-caliber stuff who was non-tendered by the Chicago White Sox earlier in the offseason.  He’s had high K rates and low HR rates throughout his career, and could be a terrific addition to the Red Sox bullpen.

Nothing is done yet, so we’ll monitor this one.

Update:

Rob Bradford tells us that an agreement is in place: $12 million over 2 years.

As of right now, on paper, this appears to be one of the best Red Sox teams ever assembled in my lifetime.  The caveat is that they still need to actually play the games, but on paper, the talent on this team in on par with the 2004 team.

This team is engineered to win the World Series.

Comments Off

By Jimmy,

Let’s take a quick look at a couple of more relievers having their tires kicked by the Red Sox front office.  Both of these names should be familiar:

Dan Wheeler, RHP: Wheeler is a local guy who was taken in the 35th round of the draft back in 1996, and has managed to put together a nice long career in middle relief.  He’s been very consistent over the last few seasons, and maintains a decent strikeout rate despite having a fastball that sits around 90 MPH.  He’s 33, and still effective.  He’d likely be the third best reliever on the team, if signed.

On a quick side note, I played a couple of high school basketball games against Dan back in the day, and I actually had to guard him (and vice versa).  As you might have guessed, that didn’t work out very well for me.

Lenny DiNardo, LHP: Lenny has a 2004 World Series ring.  Alas, like most of his World Champion teammates, he is not really a viable major league player in 2011.  It’s a cool little novelty, seeing the Red Sox sign him to a minor league deal seven years after he rode a duck boat down Boylston Street in front of 500,000 people.  However, I don’t see him being a more effective pitcher than, say, Felix Doubront.

He’s very good at getting a ground ball here and there, but he’s also very hittable and walks too many batters.  Expect him to spend most of 2011 in Pawtucket.

Other tidbits:

Bob Feller passed away.  A Hall of Fame pitcher who really morphed into a “get off my lawn” type of guy in his later years.  Meh.  That’s the natural order of things.  I’d like to think that in 50 years I’ll be the hip, fun-loving old man who enjoys live jazz and embraces America’s youth.  But, in reality, I’ll probably end up much more like Feller (as will you).

Comments (4)

By Jimmy, 12/15/2010 10:15 am

Multiple outlets are reporting that the Red Sox are about to sign former Orioles reliever Matt Albers.  He’ll be competing with a few other guys (some of whom have yet to be acquired) for one of the two bullpen spots that are open at the moment.

It’s the shotgun approach for building the back-end of a bullpen.  I think this is the best way to go;  bring in a bunch of low-cost / moderate-upside pitchers to compete for the last few spots.  Spend your monetary / prospect resources on more crucial roster spots.

Albers will be 28 next month and hasn’t had a ton of success in the majors thus far, but if I were to guess what the Red Sox see in him, I’d say it is this:

Other tidbits:

The Yankees managed to nab catcher Russell Martin, who was previously rumored to be a likely Red Sox acquisition.  Slight disappointment here; he’s a talented player with upside and I would have liked to see what he can do in a new environment.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 12/14/2010 7:40 am

In another shocking development, coveted pitcher Cliff Lee has decided to sign with the Phillies for 5 years and $115 million.  There’s two things that make this news surprising: the Phillies had not been mentioned at all as a possible suitor for Lee’s services, and the Yankees had a 7 year, $138 million deal on the table for Lee.

Most people just take the Tappan Zee Bridge when they want to avoid New York.  Cliff Lee paid $23 million dollars to do it.

Other tidbits:

• The New York Yankees rotation, as it stands, is CC, Burnett, Hughes, Ivan Nova, and David Phelps. I’ll raise a mimosa to that.  You’d have to think that they’ll make a hard run at Zack Greinke now.  If I’m Kansas City GM Dayton Moore, I tell New York that the discussion starts at Jesus Montero.  KC has all the leverage here.
• Despite rumors to the contrary, there is no deal in place to send pitcher Joe Blanton from Philly to Boston.  They did discuss a trade.  I’m not sure if the Sox see Blanton as a starter or a reliever.  If it’s the former, another move would obviously need to be made (most likely involving Daisuke Matsuzaka).

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 12/9/2010 10:55 am

I came across this amazingly useful tool developed at Katron.org that overlays a player’s MLB hit chart onto the dimensions of any other stadium you choose, basically allowing you to see what would have happened in the player hypothetically played his home games at that park.

Here is the 2010 Tropicana Field hit chart for Carl Crawford, overlayed on Fenway Park’s dimensions:

The orange dots are fly ball outs, light blue dots are doubles, royal blue dots are triples, and the dark blue dots are of course home runs.  It doesn’t appear that much would have changed for Carl in 2010.  Maybe 1 or 2 extra home runs if we assume a high trajectory, but nothing significant.

Other tidbits:

• I’m still not 100% sold on the effectiveness of defensive metrics “Range Factor” (baseballreference.com) or “UZR” (fangraphs.com), but both of them seem to agree that Carl Crawford has been the best defensive left fielder in the game during most of his career.
• Heard this morning on the radio via Peter Abraham: the Red Sox were one of the teams that offered Cliff Lee a 7-year deal.  They weren’t really trying to sign him; it was more of an effort to drive up the price for a certain other team.  It appears that their effort was a successful one.

Comments (3)

By Jimmy,

I couldn’t sleep, so I decided to turn on the computer and see what the “Hot Stove” had cooked up overnight.  I was expecting a new journeyman reliever, or maybe a right-handed hitting DH type.  This one, I did not expect.

The contract is for 7 years and $142 million.  Considering the fact that Jayson Werth got 7 years and only $2.3 million less per year in average annual value, the money seems fair.

As I pointed out, Crawford won’t hit for much power in Fenway.  However, he’ll do pretty much everything else.

I’ll have more on this later.  As it stands right now, it appears that the Red Sox are the big winners of Offseason 2011.

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 12/7/2010 9:58 am

• The Red Sox front office is reportedly shifting their focus to the free agent bullpen market.  We’ll take a look at what’s available there.
• Another run down of the Top 25 prospects in the Red Sox system, which is of course different than it was a few days ago. (It won’t be as simple as taking my last list and subtracting the traded players; I’ll be re-ranking guys based on new info)
• Taking a look at options for the bench.  Right-handed hitters, in particular.

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 12/6/2010 10:48 am

Now that the dust from the Adrian Gonzalez trade is beginning to clear, let’s take a quick look at what we have here.

First and foremost, any analysis of Gonzalez should be done while using his road performance, since his home park is extremely favorable to pitchers.  Let’s take a look at how he fared on the road, in comparison to his elite peers at first base:

Keep in mind, Adrian’s shoulder injury was sustained in May.  He was playing hurt most of the year, and was forced to change his approach at the plate to compensate for the weak shoulder.  Still, he ended up with some pretty impressive power numbers despite the shoulder issues.

The shoulder surgery is a mild concern, but we’d have to think that the Red Sox medical staff kicked the tires here before any decision was made.

Let’s take a look at what type of hitter Gonzalez is, and how his style might translate to Fenway Park.  Earlier, I commented on how Carl Crawford (another left-handed hitter) might struggle to hit for any power here since he was a dead-pull hitter and Fenway is deep in straight-away right field.  Fortunately, Gonzalez does not discriminate when it comes to the long ball:

Those were his home runs in 2010 thanks to HitTrackerOnline.com.  Plotting his homers, doubles, and fly outs at Petco on MLB.com tells a similar story:

See that nice little cluster of fly ball outs near the left field wall in Petco Park?  In Fenway, those will not be caught by any outfielder who isn’t wearing circus clown stilts.

Okay, now that we’ve established that Gonzalez is a lefty who hits to all fields, we can address the other concern people have in regards to left-handed power hitters; how does he do against left-handed pitching?  Before 2010, Adrian did struggle a bit against lefties.  However, his splits have gradually improved until last year he managed to actually hit better against left-handed pitching than he did against righties.  Behold:

Finally, let’s take a look at how Gonzalez performed against difficult competition (Interleague play and a select few elite pitchers with whom he’s familiar):

Adrian crushed the opposition in Interleague play last season, and has done fairly well against some very good pitchers, with the exception of Lincecum and Jiminez.

While no one is exactly sure how Adrian will play in Boston over the next few years (assuming he signs an extension) most of the recent data we have available seems to indicate that he will probably excel here.  It appears that Red Sox fans have a reason to be excited over this one.

Other tidbits:

• It doesn’t look like any contract extension is in place as of yet.
• Seven years for Jayson Werth.  Good god.  I’m guessing Nationals ownership will get a holiday fruit basket from the MLBPA union lawyers, and another one from Carl Crawford.

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 12/5/2010 8:56 pm

Per Jon Heyman (who is generally a decent source, despite everything) Adrian Gonzalez is now a member of the Boston Red Sox.

I’m officially burnt to a crisp by the “Hot Stove” for today.   More details tomorrow.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy,

This weekend, I started pontificating on the Adrian Gonzalez trade as if it was a done deal.  Now, it looks like that isn’t quite the case, and I am wiping egg off my face (along with many other writers, both amateur and professional) .

I still think the deal will happen with or without a contract extension, despite the hardball and gamesmanship on both sides.  It’s a trade that works well for all parties involved.

Gonzalez is likely flying back to the west coast as I type this, so it doesn’t seem like anything will change tonight.  I’ll post an update in the morning.

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 12/4/2010 4:14 pm

Superstar first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, a 28-year-old who had a .573 slugging percentage outside of Petco Park last season, will be wearing a Red Sox uniform in 2011 (and likely for the next several seasons after that).

In exchange for the heavy hitter, the Sox give up three prospects: 1B Anthony Rizzo, SP Casey Kelly, and OF Reymond Fuentes.  While most consider Kelly to be the best prospect in this group, the guy I consider most valuable is Rizzo.  Back in September, I ranked these guys #3, #5, and #17 in the organization, respectively.

The Sox actually gave up less than I thought they would, and I’m pleasantly surprised they were able to hang on to shortstop Jose Iglesias.

My initial reaction to this deal is extreme optimism and exuberance.  They did give up some quality prospects that could have great careers in San Diego, but Gonzalez is one of the top hitters in the game.  The last time I was this excited over an acquisition was in the winter of 2000, when the team signed a certain free agent left fielder.  Gonzalez has the potential to put up similar numbers in Fenway Park.

We’ll take a closer look at Gonzalez on Monday morning.

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 12/3/2010 10:23 am

I’ll start off by saying that I think it would help the Red Sox immensely if they were to sign Carl Crawford, thus allowing them to perhaps package one of Ryan Kalish or Jacoby Ellsbury in a prospect-laden deal for another offensive weapon in the near future.  However, I feel the need to point something out.

I’ve heard some folks (most recently, John Wallach on 98.5) claim that Crawford’s power numbers should increase in Fenway Park.  I don’t really think this is the case.

When Crawford, a lefty, hits the ball in the air, he is a dead-pull hitter.  He’s Johnny Damon with slightly less power.  Let’s take a look at this home run chart from last season, courtesy of HitTrackerOnline.com:

The vast majority of Crawford’s home runs were hit to right field, which in Fenway in deep (with the exception of the area near the foul pole).   Even when the fences are moved in 8 feet this season, it will still be one of the more difficult straight away RF areas to hit a home run.

If you need more evidence, check out Crawford’s home run rate at Fenway compared to everywhere else:

Crawford would bring a lot to the table were he to come to Boston.  A dynamic presence at the top of the order.  Elite baserunning.  Excellent defense in LF.  Just don’t assume that he will morph into a 25-30 HR guy in a Red Sox uniform.  It probably won’t happen.

Other tidbits:

• Ron Santo, a guy on the top of the list of those snubbed by the HoF, has died.  If only he had some sort of aquatic creature nickname, like “Sturgeon”, “Pickerel”, or “Zebra Mussel”, he’d be enshrined by now.
• In an odd turn of events, the Red Sox have non-tendered Taylor Buchholz and Andrew Miller (yes, the two pitchers they acquired last month).  My guess is that the team may have some sort of verbal agreement worked out with one or both guys.