A few weeks ago I scoffed at the idea that Bobby Valentine was a serious candidate for the managerial role in Boston. Fast forward to today, and it seems as if he is not only a candidate, but the odds-on favorite to win the position.
The 62-year-old Valentine’s most-recent MLB gig was 10 years ago, when he finished in last place with an overpaid, aging Mets team (my apologies: “overpaid & aging” and “Mets team” is a redundancy). I admit to not being very familiar with Valentine’s managerial tactics. Neither is Dan Shaughnessy, it seems. However, that did not stop Danny Boy from penning an entire column on why Valentine is the right guy for the job. Oh, sure, Dan mentions interesting tidbits, like the fact that Valentine is Ralph Branca’s son-in-law, and the fact that he has a cult following in Japan. Not much was said about Valetine’s actual track record and tendencies as a manager, though.
I think that I should be an astronaut. Why? Well, I may or may not be a direct descendant of the Bourbon Kings of Naples, and I can belch really, rally loudly on command. The above statement makes just about as much sense as much of Shaughnessy’s column promoting Valentine. Here is the most memorable trait of Bobby Valentine: he once wore a Groucho Marx mask while hiding in the dugout after being ejected. It made Sportscenter.
Valentine is a pseudo-celebrity, and Dan’s one salient point is that this might help him in the leadership department. Players might be more prone to respect a guy with star power. While I can agree with that, there’s a whole lot more that should go into this type of analysis, and as of now, I haven’t read much else in the media’s argument for Valentine.
“Nothing gold can stay.”
- Robert Frost
Ladies and gentlemen of New England, we are now looking into the abyss. Over the course of the past 3 months, we have experienced extreme heartache, shock, anger, betrayal, and loss. Recent events have us wondering if the Red Sox franchise is, after all, cursed. And just as we think we’ve clawed our way out of this unforgiving chasm of despair and pain, we’re hit with the ultimate blow, one that sends us reeling back into the very bottom of that same abyss.
They tell you that whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. Does it? Does it really? If there is a supreme being, why on Earth would he torture us like this? Maybe we are ants in the cosmic spectrum, and He is an ill-tempered child with a magnifying glass. I really don’t know.
There may come a day when I can look back and understand the reasons for the terrible news. Today, however, all we can do is pick up the pieces.
Alas, Heidi Watney is leaving NESN.
As the departure of bullpen ace Jonathan Papelbon leaves a glaring hole in an already-unstable bullpen, the Red Sox will now need to find an impact arm or two to fill his absence.
There are some direct way to go about doing this, such as offer a large contract to a notable MLB closer such as Ryan Madson (the guy who Papelbon is replacing in Philadelphia). However, as we’ve seen with Papelbon’s new contract, pitchers with an established reputation as a closer will demand top dollar in this free-agent market. Let’s face it, teams aren’t just paying for the numbers, they are paying for the “bulldog mentality” or whatever intangibles are supposedly inherent in a guy who can finish close baseball games on a nightly basis. The magnitude of impact that these intangibles have on performance (assuming they even exist) is quite debatable, which leads me to believe that this may be an area where a more savvy GM can save a bit of coin without sacrificing too much in terms of actual talent.
I’ve always been a strong supporter of two types of moves:
- Acquiring a middle reliever with good peripheral numbers but little/no closer experience.
- Attempting to convert an inconsistent starting pitcher with good “stuff” into a reliever.
Today, I’ll touch on the second option, a move which I think takes a bit more creativity and courage from the front office. One of the things that makes the conversion difficult is the simple fact that most pitchers would rather be a starter than a reliever, and you can’t really blame them for that. In most cases, from Little League on, the better pitchers will usually be starters. Starters get more playing time, more limelight, and once you hit the pros, typically more money.
Considering this barrier, the type of pitcher we are looking for is a guy who isn’t a hot commodity in the starter market. A back-end starter, someone who isn’t heading for a $12 million a year deal anytime soon. Someone who is probably close to or over the age of 30, since teams are generally loath to give up on young pitchers with upside. Someone who has had potential, a plus pitch or two, decent peripheral numbers, but has struggled for some reason. (Ideally, the reason isn’t “inability to throw strikes”, as this would make the pitcher an unattractive option for high-leverage situations).
Just to summarize some of the qualities we are looking out for here:
- Availability: a free agent or someone who might be deemed expendable\
- Inconsistency as a starter: while it would be nice to hire Roy Oswalt as your closer, it’s not going to happen.
- Decent K rate: someone who strikes guys out will have more success than someone who doesn’t, all else being equal
- Decent GB%: if you don’t get a strikeout, a routine ground ball is the next best thing
- Good stuff: fastball velocity, accuracy/effectiveness of breaking pitches. Year-to-year trends are important here
- Early-inning success: a starter who comes out of the gate strong might be better suited to one-inning appearances
- ERA – FIP: While ERA is sort of the industry-wide accepted barometer for pitching success, FIP is actually a better indicator. Someone with a high ERA but a lower FIP is typically going to be undervalued by the market
With the exception of “availability” and “inconsistency as a starter”, not all of the above traits are necessary. However, it would help to find someone with at least a few. Now that we have a rough set of guidelines out of the way, we can look around to see if anyone might be a fit.
I will update this later on with some ideas.
The solid play of Marco Scutaro in 2011 made it a certainty that the Red Sox would pick up his $6 million option for 2012. The decision is made even easier by Jed Lowrie’s inability to stay healthy, as well as Jose Iglesias’ inability to hit AAA pitching. While the latter might change, it doesn’t seem like the former ever will, and Lowrie will always be a “10th man” type of player.
Keeping in mind the fact that Scutaro celebrated his 36th birthday yesterday, the Sox will need to brace themselves for the inevitable plummit in productivity which may or may not occur next season. The easy approach would be to use a loose RHP/LHP platoon with Lowrie, who hits left-hand pitching very well. A more bold approach would be to kick the tires on free-agent superstar Jose Reyes, shop Lowrie, and use Scutaro as a utility infielder. This, of course, is less likely.
Other notes:
- In relation to my Reyes note above, the worst possible effect of the John Lackey / Carl Crawford contracts would be Red Sox management and ownership becoming irrationally gun shy on the free agent market. Even ignoring the strong possibility that Crawford turns things around next season, there have been many, many success stories resulting from teams taking on long-term risk in free agency. Consider where the Yankees would have been without C.C. Sabathia over the past few years, or the Cardinals without Matt Holliday. Or, the 2004-2007 Red Sox without one Manuel Aristides Ramirez. We can only hope that Ben Cherington isn’t the reactionary type.
- The Sox begin interviewing candidates for the manager role today, starting with Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin. My early wager is on DeMarlo Hale being promoted internally, but I suppose a lot of that will depend on the scope of the political fallout (if any) from Terry Francona’s departure.
Brand new Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington just now confirmed a rumor that had been floating around this morning: troubled pitcher John Lackey will indeed undergo Tommy John surgery. Recovery is typically 12-16 months, which means he will miss the entire 2012 season.
From looking at his track record over the course of the last several years, it’s pretty clear that his durability and effectiveness have both been steadily deteriorating, at a relatively young age. He has had bouts of elbow discomfort in the past, so the TJS news isn’t exactly a bombshell.
I’m not happy with his 2011 performance, but I’m also not very comfortable with the way he’s treated here. From Bob Stanley, to Jose Offerman, to Julio Lugo, and now Lackey…the angry mob mentality displayed by most of the fan base just isn’t my cup of tea.
Here’s hoping for a year of tranquility.
Pitching coach Curt Young is the latest staff member to grab the nearest unoccupied escape pod and blast his way to safety. Young, who I was very optimistic about when the Sox initially hired him last Novermber, returns to his previous job in Oakland.
While the Red Sox clearly have their problems, the Oakland A’s have not had a winning season in 5 years. I guess, sometimes, the low-hanging fruit tastes pretty sweet.
According to NBC Sports, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has agreed to a $15 million deal with the Chicago Cubs.
Can’t say I really blame him. The bar is set pretty low at Wrigley Field.
It would have been nice if he didn’t enter in to a bunch of high-risk long-term contracts in the two years prior to his exodus. In the often-used Titanic analogy, this would be the equivalent of the captain jumping ship immediately after hitting the iceberg, and boarding a smaller, lesser-known ship.
According to various reports, the Red Sox and Terry Francona have mutually decided to part ways after 8 seasons.
We’ve seen many managerial regime changes here in Boston, most of them without much sentiment.
This one’s going to be tough.
9/13/11: Red Sox 18, Blue Jays 6
Box Score
If you were to analyze the pool of baseball fans in America, at both ends of the spectrum you’d notice two extremes: the old school fan who shuns statistics and relies more on intuition and first-hand experiences, and the quantitative SABR type who embraces statistics and scoffs at the gut feeling approach to baseball analysis. I probably lean towards the latter. However, there’s one thing that the SABR extremists sometimes fail to recognize: sometimes it’s OK to be irrationally sentimental. After all, we’re spending our time obsessing over men who are paid vast fortunes to hit leather balls with wooden sticks, which is a very irrational act in itself.
Therefore, I think it’s OK to throw some props towards Tim Wakefield this morning. We don’t have to pretend that he’s having a good year, or that he pitched well last night, or that the win statistic is very meaningful. For better or for worse, milestones like this one are meaningful to most observers, and that alone makes them important.
Key Players:
- Hero of the Game: Dustin Pedroia (4 for 5, 2 HRs, 4 runs, 5 RBI, 29.5% WPA)
- Goat of the Game: Brandon Morrow (5 runs allowed in 5.1 innings, -41.9% WPA)
I was in attendance last night, and I can tell you that both of Pedroia’s home runs were the type of shots that earned him the nickname “Laser Show”; scorching shots that left the park in an instant.
Top 3 Plays:
- With the bases loaded and two outs in the 1st, Toronto first baseman David Cooper scoops up a routine grounder hit by Josh Reddick, and air-mails the ball over the pitcher covering first. Two runs score on the error. (16.0% WPA)
- Jacoby Ellsbury hits a solo HR with 2 outs in the 4th (12.9% WPA).
- Dustin Pedroia immediately follows Ellsbury’s HR with one of his own (12.7% WPA).
Quote of the Day:
“Panic is unbecoming.”
- Larry Lucchino, Red Sox CEO
According to WEEI.com (despite their dreadful radio product, the blog is quite nice), Junichi Tazawa will be added to Boston’s expanded roster today, marking his return to the Major Leagues after 2-years of recovery from Tommy John surgery.
The Red Sox pitching staff has been decimated by injuries and ineffectiveness at a time where they really can’t afford it, so Tazawa’s call-up isn’t at all a ceremonial “let’s throw him a bone and give him a few garbage innings” gesture; it’s all hands on deck. In a few small sample of innings in Pawtucket (all in relief), Tazawa was very effective, striking out 19 hitters in 14.1 innings including a .160 batting average against left-handed hitters.
I’m guessing his usage will be in soft of a hybrid LOOGY/long relief role, where he could come in to face one hitter, or he could mop up for someone like Lackey if he shits the bed in the 3rd inning.
Other notes:
- Manny Ramirez continues to piss all over his legacy. Brick by brick, he’s dismantling the whole goofy teddy bear image, and replacing it with that of a unrepentant asshole.
- Old friend Mike Cameron was released by the Marlins, and may retire. He was actually playing fairly well for Florida, but it seems the move was more about arithmetic than it was performance.
This is why I generally don’t like hearing other fans (or media personalities) question an athlete’s injury. You never really know when it’s something like this.
For example, a relatively well-known local writer Tweeted this gem last week:
Clay Buchholz will throw off mound Monday despite feeling “stuff” in his back. It’s time for little camper Clay to buck up and pitch thru it
Now, baseball is not this particular writer’s forte, and the view from outsiders tends to be that the purveyors of our national pastime are “soft” in comparison to their mullet-headed ice skating cousins from the north. However, the statement doesn’t look any less idiotic when we are now faced with the news that Clay Buchholz has a stress fracture in his lower back, and his season is likely over.
In related news, the Sox did trade for left-handed starter Erik Bedard. More on that (along with an updated prospect list) next.
The Red Sox had a day off yesterday after traveling down to lovely Philadelphia, so it’s a good time to update the prospect rankings.
Click here for the new rankings, or the link at the top of the page.
A couple of notes:
- Several players fell out of the top 25: pitcher Michael Bowden, catcher Dan Butler, and catcher Luis Exposito.
- Josh Reddick is on the list, however, he recently passed the rookie threshold and is no longer a “prospect” by definition. He’ll be off the list when I re-rank these again.
6/26/11: Red Sox 4, Pirates 2
Box Score
I’m not exactly sure how it feels to be waterboarded (although, they have been stepping up the security measures at MBTA stations, and I do have a tan, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities). However, I imagine the sensation is similar to watching the Red Sox lose a string of games to the Padres and Pirates.
That streak was mercifully put to a stop yesterday afternoon, but it wasn’t exactly a clean victory. Were it not for a slew of errors and miscues on the part of the Pirates, the Red Sox likely would have been swept by the team that began the year in dead last place in my power rankings.
Top 5 Heroes:
| Player |
WPA |
Notes |
| J Papelbon |
9.5% |
scoreless 9th, save |
| D Bard |
9.2% |
perfect 8th |
| D Ortiz |
8.6% |
pinch hit walk, scored go-ahead run |
| A Aceves |
8.4% |
perfect 7th |
| A Miller |
6.9% |
6 innings, 5 hits, 2 walks, 4 Ks, 1 earned run |
It’s another odd day in terms of WPA, as there isn’t one starting position player in the Top 5. The only hitter there is David Ortiz, who entered the game as a pinch hitter for Andrew Miller. It was an ugly game, which is fitting, because the prior 4 games were also hideous. There’s something about interleague play during the regular season. It’s just…awkward.
Buzz Kill:
J.D. Drew was hurt again, after fouling a pitch off of his face in batting practice. Darnell McDonald entered the game and proceeded to go 0 for 4, and he’s now hitting .109/.163/.174. Carl Crawford can’t get healthy soon enough.
Quote of the Day:
“That’s OK, I hate him, too,”
- Jonathan Papelbon, busting the balls of a young reporter who informed him that Philadelphia fans hate Terry Francona
Prospect Watch:
- AAA – Jose Iglesias, whose name hasn’t appeared in this section as much as I would have expected this year, went 3 for 4 with a double. Catcher Ryan Lavarnway (DH’ing in this game) went 2 for 4 and is now hitting .356/.420/.667 for Pawtucket.
- Low A – Outfielder Brandon Jacobs went 2 for 5 with a HR, and first baseman Miles Head went 2 for 5 with two doubles. They are hitting .319/.392/.532 and .338/.409/.612, respectively.
Other Notes:
- It was a bittersweet victory; if the Sox had lost, I was planning to create this awesome Photoshop where a ship full of pirates (real ones) were making Red Sox players walk the plank. The Sox probably won’t play the Pirates for another 3 years at least, so this idea will sadly be archived away.
- Apparently, I’m not supposed to hit the space bar twice after each sentence? Well, I can’t stop doing it now. In a related note, do you know that my high school was once disaccredited? I was initially shocked when I heard that, but in retrospect, they somehow managed to fuck up Typing 101. Maybe the authorities knew what they were doing in this particular case.
6/19/11: Red Sox 12, Brewers 3
Box Score
The Ageless Wonder once again turned in a stunning performance, allowing only 5 base runners over the course of 8 strong innings. Unlike most Tim Wakefield starts of late, he was treated with plenty of run support against Milwaukee, as 8 of their 14 hits were for extra bases.
Top 5 Heroes:
| Player |
WPA |
Notes |
| J Ellsbury |
13.2% |
2 for 5 with a double, 2 RBI, 1 run |
| T Wakefield |
10.8% |
8 strong innings |
| K Youkilis |
10.6% |
3-run HR in the 1st inning |
| D Pedroia |
7.8% |
3 for 4 with a HR, 2 RBI, 2 runs |
| A Gonzalez |
7.6% |
2 for 5 with a triple (!), 2 RBI, 2 runs |
Note the abnormally low WPAs (the entire team added up to around 50%). You’ll see this when the game gets out of hand early, as it did yesterday afternoon. Once the bottom of the first inning had ended as the score was 6-0, the probability of the Red Sox winning was over 90%. Everything else that occurred in the game, such as Pedroia’s 6th inning HR, wouldn’t have much of an impact on win probability.
This is one of the strengths of WPA, as a metric. It distinguishes the important plays from the ones that occur in garbage time.
Buzz Kill:
Clay Buchholz (back) and Carl Crawford (hamstring) are both on the disabled list, and both hope to return during the series in their home state, at Houston. I talked about Buchholz, but the Crawford situation is just as troubling, if not more. Speed is, of course, a big part of Crawford’s game. If hamstring problems become chronic for him as he ages, the Red Sox will be stuck with a very expensive, very mediocre outfielder.
Quote of the Day:
“It had good movement on it. Some of them went in to right-handers, some of them went in to left-handers. It did what good knuckleballs do. It was frustrating.”
- Milwaukee 1B Prince Fielder, on the knuckleball
By the way, if you’re wondering whether or not Wakefield ever faced Prince’s dad, Cecil Fielder…he did. 30 times. Like father, like son; Cecil hit .111/.200/.148 against Wakefield.
Prospect Watch:
- SS A – The short-season Lowell Spinners started their 2011 campaign over the weekend, and there are a couple of interesting players up in the Cradle of the Industrial Revolution. The one that stands out, however, is third baseman Garin Cecchini, who is regarded as one of the best hitting prospects in the system. In his debut on Friday, he went 2 for 4 with a double and a SB.
- R – The Gulf Coast League Red Sox begin play today. This is where you’ll see a few of the high school draftees and the prospects who graduated from the Dominican Summer League. Two names jump of the page right now: shortstop Jose Vinicio and outfielder Kendrick Perkins.
Just a few quick thoughts as I try to get back on my regular schedule after a few grueling weeks. Yes; recaps, previews, and rankings will continue here posthaste.
- HBO’s Game of Thrones is currently the best show on television, and last Sunday’s episode left me unable to sleep. With all the different versions of “NCIS”, “Top Chef”, and “30 Yuppies Fighting Over an Expensive Prostitute” (or whatever that show is actually called), it’s great to once again have something worth using the DVR space on.
- If the NBA Finals had gone a different way, I probably would have lost 100% of my interest in the league. Lebron James is simply too despicable. This guy actually made statements after the game to the effect of “It’s God’s plan for me to eventually win” and “My critics are just bitter because they’re poor and miserable”, and such. Sure, I am poor and miserable, but correlation doesn’t equal causation, Bron!
- Before the 2010 season, I predicted a bust-out All Star campaign from Jacoby Ellsbury that included a modest increase in power to go along with his high batting average and dominance of the basepaths. Of course, he had his collision with Adrian Beltre and that never happened. However, I feel somewhat vindicated considering his torrid play this season. Right now, he is one of the best lead-off hitters in the game.
- Beer recommendation: this is something that I imagine would be very difficult to get outside of the Boston area, but there is a local craft brewery called “Pretty Things” that has a few outstanding selections. Yeah, the name is a little dainty and they’ll likely serve it to you in a tulip glass, but once you swallow your pride and have a sip or two, you’ll thank me.
- While it seems like just about everyone on the Red Sox roster is on fire, the one guy who was hitting back in April has cooled down considerably. Jed Lowrie is hitting .226/.293/.323 since May 1st.
- J.D. Drew has also been quiet this year, but sadly, I think it’s a function of him getting old. Drew, of course, was always injury prone, but when you hit your mid thirties, the tightness and the soreness that once would go away in a 24 hour span now lingers for quite a bit longer. It’s not a fun thing to encounter.
- Catching prospect Ryan Lavarnway, a guy who has shown an improvement in his defense this year, has been promoted to Pawtucket. He is certainly someone to keep an eye on.
- The one thing that will get me out of my seat quickly: seeing Sarah McLachlan appear on the television. As soon as her Canadian face pops up on my screen, a frantic scramble for the remote ensues. I swear, I’m like Vince Wilfork going after a loose ball; my lightning-quick hands and feet propelled by immense fury and hunger as I grab that piece of plastic and push either the “Channel Up” or “Channel Down” button (it doesn’t matter which). I have nothing against Sarah or her music, but I just don’t feel like seeing any more footage of a one-eyed puppy, you know?
- A re-worked prospect list will be published shortly, however, I’m not going to include any of the draftees until they actually sign.
So, it looks like neither Bell nor Norris will be happening, as the Sox took a college outfielder with their final pick in Day One of the draft. Jackie Bradley was one of the best outfielders in college baseball as a sophomore last season before hurting his wrist and having a mediocre junior year. This sort of follows the strategy the Sox employed when drafting both Anthony Ranaudo and Bryce Brentz in 2010; taking polished college players whose stock dropped due to a recent injury.
He’s a quick, athletic left-handed hitting outfielder. The Sox have gravitated towards this type of player several times in recent drafts, and it’s worked out fairly well for them.
On that note…good night. More during Day Two tomorrow afternoon.
This pick took a little wind out of my sails, as I was expecting the Sox to go after one of the two ultra-expensive high school talents still on the draft board (Josh Bell or Daniel Norris). However, I really can’t get too disappointed with a 6’6″ left-handed high schooler whose fastball touches 94 MPH.
Aside from a decent fastball, Henry Owens also throws an array of breaking balls that could prove difficult to hit for the big left-handed hitters in professional ball.
As with the others, more later.
Here you are seeing the first example of the Red Sox attempting to out-muscle the other franchises with their wallet in this draft, as Blake Swihart is a high-priced high school catcher who is committed to play for his dream school, the University of Texas. Swihart, aside from being the most highly-touted catcher in this draft class, is one of the best high school bats and likely would have been drafted sooner were it not for his price tag and his strong commitment to attend college.
He’s very quick and athletic for a catcher, and some actually believe that he would be better suited at 2B or 3B. The Sox will likely try their hardest to develop him behind the plate, where he would have the most value.
More on him later.
Early June is usually a busy time in sports (mostly of the non-baseball variety), so the Amateur Draft will occasionally sneak up on you if your mind is on other things, as it did to me here.
This is one of those years that you will want to pay close attention, as the Red Sox have 4 picks in the first 40, and their rivals down in St. Petersburg have 10 picks (!) in the first 60.
We’ll provide coverage of the Red Sox draft picks in real-time, or close to it, depending on my work schedule.
As far as a preview goes, there are quite a bit of interesting prospects but the one that stands out to me is a high school outfielder from Texas by the name Josh Bell. Bell is committed to attend the University of Texas and has reportedly made statements suggesting he will be very difficult to sign, but the Red Sox are known to pursue this type of prospect and have the financial resources to make just about any high school kid break their academic commitments.
Much to my chagrin, the first day of the draft is now held at night; it will be televised tonight at 6pm on the MLB Network. It’s a practice that began last year, and I still haven’t warmed to the idea. For decades, professional baseball has slowly been migrating from a daytime sport to a nighttime one. The new MLB Draft is just the latest example of that. I should probably just stop my bitching and accept it. So, I will.
Heck in here tonight for draft coverage and commentary.
Left-handed reliever Rich Hill, a Boston area native who made a triumphant return to the big leagues after injuries derailed his once-promising career as a starter, is reported to require season-ending surgery after hurting himself in yesterday’s game.
Hill was one of the most reliable relievers on the team during his time in the big leagues in 2011. Note: he may throw like a LOOGY, but he wasn’t really used as one: Hill faced nearly as many right-handed hitters (14) as he did lefties (16). He was highly successful against both in the small sample of innings he pitched this year: 8 IP, 3 hits, 12 Ks, no runs allowed.
Pawtucket’s Felix Doubront is the most likely replacement in the bullpen.
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