After Daisuke Matsuzaka notched his 11th victory of the season last night in Seattle, it might be interesting to sneak a preliminary gander at the American League Cy Young Award race. As early as it is, this is typically the time of year where a handful of guys have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

Note: I’m not going to delve too deeply into things like K/BB or FIP or anything like that, because they likely won’t be considered by the voters, not nearly as much as the Triple Crown stats (wins, Ks, ERA).

Your major candidates in alphabetical order, as of 7/23/08:

Justin Duchscherer - Oakland A’s
10-6, 1.87 ERA.  1st in ERA.
The league leader in ERA will always be considered a strong candidate for the award (as long as he has a winning record, of course), and Justin has nearly a half-run lead on the runner up.  The Duke also has a bit of a Cinderella Factor at play, although it can be debated if his non-household name will help him or hurt him in the minds of the voters.  The major point against him is his absence from the list of K leaders.

Roy Halladay - Toronto Blue Jays
11-7, 2.89 ERA, 127 Ks.  3rd in ERA, 4th (t) in wins, 3rd (t) in strikeouts.
Halladay has the cachet and the respect of the writers for being a stoic workhorse, as he’s comfortably in the lead for AL innings pitched.  In this day and age, Roy is a bit of an anomaly and a throwback, as his 7 complete games is something you would see on the back of a 1980’s baseball card. I have to think this will help him in the voting totals.

Cliff Lee - Cleveland Indians
13-2, 2.29 ERA, 110 Ks.  1st in wins, 2nd in ERA.
Cliff is a guy who has been a case study in mediocrity for his entire career…up until 2008.  The AL starter of the All-Star Game has an extremely attractive win-loss record and ERA, and thus should be considered at or near the top of the list of candidates.  He also has a sentimentality factor at play, as people love a story of a guy who had toiled for years before finally having that one legendary season.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - Boston Red Sox
11-1, 2.63 ERA, 83 Ks.  4th (t) in wins.
Dice-K would be 3rd in ERA if he qualified (which he will, barring a major injury).  For Red Sox fans, it’s almost inconceivable that this guy is on the list, as his command has been horrific at times.  Still, his W/L and ERA numbers are both extremely impressive.

Ervin Santana - Anaheim Angels
11-4, 3.37 ERA, 130 Ks.  4th (t) in wins, 2nd in Ks, 9th in ERA
Santana has been strikeout machine and pitches for the best (read: winningest) team in the league.  Spent years as a hyped power arm with raw potential, and is finally living up to the lofty projections.  Could win 20 games while pitching in the weak AL West.

Just making the cut:
Mike Mussina, Jon Lester, Joe Saunders, Francisco Rodriguez, Shaun Marcum

Factoring in both their numbers and the other qualities at play, I would rank them like this (most likely to win on top):

Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Justin Duchscherer
Ervin Santana
Daisuke Matsuzaka

If you tuned in to ESPN this evening to take in the annual All-Star Home Run Derby, you wouldn’t have seen some of the names you might have expected. There’s no A-Rod or Manny. No Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn. Luckily, a guy named Josh Hamilton put on the show of a lifetime, and Sports Illustrated’s Rick Reilly tried his hardest to flush his television career down the toilet, so the viewers got their money’s worth and more. But, lets face it: players are simply becoming more and more hesitant to enter the contest, for whatever reason.

Is there something to this? Does the Derby have some sort of swing-altering effect which negatively impacts a hitter’s game throughout the remainder of the season? Let’s take a look at the last 10 Derby winners (I’m picking the winners because they are the guys who took the most swings, and therefore would likely be most heavily impacted), and how they fared both before and after the All-Star Break.

1998 - Coors Field
Ken Griffey Jr.
First Half: .299/.382/.678
Second Half: .267/.345/.531
OPS Swing: -185 (720 PA)

1999 - Fenway Park
Ken Griffey Jr.
First Half: .310/.404/.620
Second Half: .255/.360/.522
OPS Swing: -142 (706 PA)

2000 - Turner Field
Sammy Sosa
First Half: .305/.388/.574
Second Half: .338/.428/.711
OPS Swing: +174 (705 PA)

2001 - Safeco Field
Luis Gonzales
First Half: .355/.443/.745
Second Half: .290/.412/.620
OPS Swing: -157 (728 PA)

2002 - Miller Park
Jason Giambi
First Half: .318/.430/.602
Second Half: .309/.442/.593
OPS Swing: +003 (689 PA)

2003 - U.S. Cellular
Garret Anderson
First Half: .316/.345/.597
Second Half: .313/.344/.463
OPS Swing: -136 (673 PA)

2004 - Minute Maid Park
Miguel Tejada
First Half: .311/.358/.506
Second Half: .311/.363/.566
OPS Swing: +066 (725 PA)

2005 - Comerica Park
Bobby Abreu
First Half: .307/.428/.526
Second Half: .260/.376./411
OPS Swing: -168 (719 PA)

2006 - PNC Park
Ryan Howard
First Half: .278/.341/.582
Second Half: .355/.509/.751
OPS Swing: +366 (704 PA)

2007 - AT&T Park
Vladimir Guerrero
First Half: .325/.416/.547
Second Half: .323/.387/.548
OPS Swing: -027 (660 PA)

What I find most interesting is not one of these guys suffered any kind of serious injury during their Derby seasons. Not even Ken Griffey, who was on a first name basis with just about every hospital employee in Seattle. The lowest plate appearance total was 660 from Vlad last season.

The weighted average OPS swing (change between the first half and second half of the season) is -21, which is a very insignificant amount, since we are dealing with OPS numbers in the 900-1100 range for these guys. 4 of the 10 players actually had better offensive numbers after the All-Star Break. Just looking at the lack of injuries and aggregate performance, one might say that the Derby shouldn’t have much of an effect on players at all.

However, there is one piece of evidence in the favor of the “Anti-Derby” camp: one Kenneth Griffey Junior. Griffey’s career 1st Half/2nd Half split is nearly down the middle: 926 OPS vs 914 OPS. However, during his 2 Derby seasons detailed above, he suffered a large decline in performance after the All Star Break.

Other than that, there is not much here that tells me that the Derby is a season killer. It may have hindered Ken Griffey a bit, but every player reacts differently to this type of thing.

Next July, grab a bat, gentlemen. They aren’t going to bite.

“Who’s that creepy guy lurking in the corner?”

“Oh, just a friend of mine.”

“Is that…Matt Belisle! OHMIGOD!”

Maybe in Cincinnati. The rest of the country has little reason to pay attention to a twenty-eight-year-old fighting for a spot in the Reds’ rotation. His triple crown numbers were underwhelming: 8-9, 5.32 ERA, 125 Ks, 177 IP. There are sexier candidates named Bailey and Cueto. Hell, nobody in Cincy gets ink unless Dusty is drooling his latest idiotic misconceptions.

Strangely, Belisle has popped up a lot recently. His name has been near the top of random stat sorts that distract me from my actual work. He is the most illustrative part of this article at Baseball Analysts. My dreams are haunted by Marge Schott whispering “Belisle…Belisle” and I wake up in cold sweats. I can’t escape him!

He was almost exactly league average in K% (16.21) and GB% (41.75) and FB% (36.3) in 2007. The one thing he did well was not walking people (2.18 BB/9). Actually, he was really good at not walking people. That rate was 18th in baseball last year, between two guys named Dan Haren and Johan Santana. If he was so average to slightly above, why was his ERA+ only 88?

According to Rich Lederer, he is part of the group of pitchers that “live on the edge with very little margin for error.” I contend that on that edge he was hurt by bad luck more than the rest of that group, which includes guys like Mark Buehrle, Tom Gorzellany and Josh Towers.

Two things broke against him:

• Only Kip Wells had a greater negative difference in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and ERA, indicating he was significantly hurt by poor defense.

• He gave up too many dingers, but Great American Ballpark had something to do with that. In 2007, he allowed 17 at home and 9 on the road in only 7 fewer innings.

GAB has been among the top three in Home Run Park Factor since its opening. That undoubtedly has something to do with the Reds’ crappy staffs, but we’re knee deep in a chicken-and-egg problem now. My guess: it’s not kosher. Reds pitchers were bad, but they were also hurt by the park. According to all his rate stats, Belisle isn’t bad, he’s average, and his tendency to give up bombs at home can be attributed to park effects, at least in part.

I harbor no delusions. Belisle will be never be a top tier pitcher, but he can and will contribute. Don’t forget, to be average you have to beat half the guys out there. Get him out of Cincy or in front of a good defense and he’ll thrive.

I love you: Fangraphs and The Hardball Times

It’s over.  The Red Sox are the World Champions.  They have reached the ultimate goal, the only acceptable outcome.  A dear friend, who has a great deal more perspective than I do, said recently “ninety-five of the emotion during most seasons is agony, the other five is relief.”  This season, more than 2004, has proven that true.  There is no burden of a long winless streak lifted, just a successful ending to another season.  The first time is always the best, but the only emotion after game four was relief.  If 2004 was like bagging the hottest chick in high school, 2007 was like making out with her tom-boy twin sister.

After basking in the afterglow for a few days, we set our sights on next year with bragging rights secured for the next eleven months.  The Red Sox are in a nice position.  The loss of Mike Lowell is meager compared to years past.  If a team can position itself to have no more than two major holes to fill each offseason, they’re a well-managed squad.  This team has one.  With the resigning of Curt Schilling, the Sox can turn their full attention to the 1B/3B void left by Lowell, who shouldn’t get a four year contract.  I’m not going to get into that though.

There are two guys available that really excite me: Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera.  I’m going to assume a few things to illustrate my point, which you might disagree with:

1. Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera will put up comparable offensive numbers for the next six years.  Not unreasonable.
2. Clay Buchholz will develop into an All-Star caliber pitcher.  Also not out of the realm of possibilities.
3. Cabrera will cost the Sox Clay Buccholz.  Likely, considering other names being thrown around: Kershaw, Gallardo, Hughes.

On the surface, the two elite third basemen have different costs.  After looking into it a little further, I’m not so sure they do.  We all understand dollars, right?  A-Rod is easy, 300 million of them.  If the Sox sign A-Rod, they’ll get to keep Clay Buchholz, who will cost approximately $30 million in arbitration ($8, $10, $12mil).  So on one side we’ve got A-Rod and Buccholz around $330 million.

Cabrera will cost Clay Buchholz and approximately $40 million in arbitration over the next three years.  After that, he’d be looking for A-Rod type money, or more likely, $25 million for six years ($150 million).  So what does the loss of Clay Buchholz cost?  Its tough to say, but if he develops into a top of the rotation starter, he would be worth $18-22 million on the free agent market.  Conservatively, a Buccholz replacement would be $15 million for 6 years, or $90 million.  On this side we’ve got Cabrera and an unnamed pitcher for $280 million.

There’s about fifty million bucks on one side, but that comes with the increasing waistline of Fat Miguel.  A-Rod at third and Youkilis at first would be a better infield combo than Youkilis at third and Cabrera in the dugout, but will Clay Buccholz develop into better than a $15 million a year pitcher?  If the answer is yes, you keep him and throw as much money as you want at A-Rod.  The A-Rod sticker shock is extreme, but the dollars associated with Cabrera aren’t far off.

The Boston Celtics acquired the 5th pick in tonight’s draft lottery, despite having the 2nd most balls in the drawing.  In other words, they’ll be selecting another 6′9″ power forward, or another “athletic” 19-year-old point guard who can’t shoot.

So…how ’bout them Sox?

There is literally nothing to be learned from his start on Thursday. Sorry, there just isn’t, other than a Yankees starting rotation desperate for arms to go deep in the game are likely not to find an answer from The Boy King. Monday told a different story all together, even though the Rangers are what can only be accurately described as a ‘crappy major league team’.

The start against the Blue Jays was a cautionary tale of having a young base baller on the mound for you. It really was a generic appearance…he had good command of his fastball, but poor control. Spotty command of his breaking pitches, and no real off speed pitch that could fool major league hitters. One at bat, you saw a flash of absolute greatness, the next at bat was a battle of Major Leaguer versus Not-Yet-Ready.

Take a look at the debut games of guys like Felix Hernandez, or Andrew Miller…recent young right handers who were pushed into service.

But something happened between Thursday and Monday…Philip Hughes put it all together (as youngsters do sometimes…especially pre-drinking age) against the Rangers. They absolutely couldn’t touch him.

Handed a six run lead before the game even entered the second third, Hughes strung together those ‘flashes’ I mentioned earlier, and was using his curve and fastball to eliminate any chance the Rangers had to get back in the game. By the time he was pulled in the 7th, he had thrown 83 pitches, 53 for strikes. He struck out Kenny Lofton, Mark Teixeira, Victor Diaz, Brad Wilkerson twice, and Gerald Laird. Only three outs were recorded in the air. This game was pitched by developing pitcher with a unobtainable ceiling…not a guy with a lot of hype and 4 MLB innings under his belt.

That is the story that should have been written. Instead, I get to bore you with some reality, because I’m sure as you know, Phil Hughes left the game with a hamstring injury.

This is very, very dangerous for a very specific reason…the legs are the most important part of the body in baseball. In pitching, if you have to change your leg mechanics at all, it might shift the strain on your upper body. The most famous example is that Dizzy Dean broke his foot, and came back before he was completely healed. He had to change his landing spot on the mound, to alleviate the pain on his foot. In doing so, his mechanics were out of wack, his arm died, and so did his career.

This is where the Yankees have to be very careful. The official word is that he’s on the shelf for four-to-six weeks…but in order for his arm not to atrophy, he’ll likely start pitching when he can put weight on his hamstring. If the leg isn’t completely healed, this 20-year-old…already in the throes of a deadly part of his career, injury-wise…faces a dire injury situation. Stress that used to be on the shoulder and oblique muscle could be transfered to the elbow.

The Yankees can’t shut him down obviously, so they are in a precarious position. The margin for error is fairly tight with any young pitcher, and considering Hughes is the hurling future of the Yankees, being overly cautious might be the best track.

So here it is, the first installment of the annual match up of bitter American League East rivals, the Boston Red Sox and the New York Kiddie Touchers.

I’m not going to waste your time talking about the pedophilic tendencies of the Yankees, since there is baseball to be played. Just remember to keep your children safe at the park this weekend.

What I decide to do here was to actually write an honest-to-God preview of the upcoming clash, with a more in depth look at the state of the two teams than I would normally do. The particulars of the series actually bode well for the Red Sox, because it’s in Fenway, where they can bend the will of men, and the pitching match ups all favor the Red Sox. The normal caveats about all predictions and stats apply…there is no real way to prognosticate baseball…everything is just too random. Keep in mind that the things I talk about are in a theoretical realm, where what is supposed to happen is more important than what actually does happen. We’re through the looking glass here people.

Leading off
Julio Lugo – SS .280/.345/.360 5.9 rc/27
Johnny Damon – CF .300/.440/.475 10.51 rc/27

Offensively, the numbers are pretty ugly when you look up and down the lineup. The Yankees offense is running pretty well right now, and the top is eating much of the burden of slow starts by the bottom of the order. Damon is really off to a good start so far, mostly centered around his walk spike so far. The concerning thing is that he’s only making contact in 66% of his at bats, which is a crater for him. Something to keep an eye on as the year moves along.

Lugo has been a slight disappoint to me so far, as his slugging is lower than what it should be, and he should be walking a bit more. I would be interested to see him hitting sixth in front of Lowell just so he could use his speed more in front of a guy that makes a lot of contact, but doesn’t walk much.
Advantage: Yankees

Second
Kevin Youkilis – 1B .235/.316/.333 5.1 rc/27
Derek Jeter – SS .323/.391/.371 5.2 rc/27

The differences between the two men’s rates are pretty substantial, obviously. Jeter outpaces Youks by over 35 points in all three. So why have they been contributing essentially the same amount to their respective offenses? For one, Jeter is chewing up outs, basically only contributing singles. That’s not a bad thing really, with the guys behind him hitting the crap out of the ball, but the runs scoring are as much them as him…basically, he should be hitting more doubles ect.

The other big thing is that there are 3 runs (per 27 outs) difference between them with runners on. Youks right now is +1.8 in hitting with RISP and HR with men on base. Jeter is –1.2.
Advantage: Yankees

Third
David Ortiz – DH .288/.383/.673 7.9 rc/27
Bobby Abreu – RF .345/.406/.414 8.5 rc/27

We’re seeing the humanity of David Ortiz lately, as he hasn’t done anything heroic lately. For example, Scott Downs overmatched Ortiz yesterday afternoon (a fantastic game, by the way). And Ortiz just looked mortal. This is not a criticism of Papi, or anything at all. It just proves that regression to the mean affects deities as well.

Bobby Abreu is being mentioned as the forgotten man so much that I actually wonder if someone, somewhere forgot him.
Advantage: Red Sox

Cleanup
Manny Ramirez – LF .200/.310/.280 4.2 rc/27
Alex Rodriguez – 3B .351/.418/.965 15.1 rc/27

Alex Rodriguez is hitting otherworldly. He really is. But it’s so tied up in luck (the random concentration of his ‘goodness’, not the word-holder use that explains everything the numbers don’t show.) that he’s absolutely bound to get booed (figuratively) in the next month.

Most of his value this year is tied up in home runs. Half of his hits have been homers. He is hitting .351, but his on base isn’t much higher than usual (he’s a .390-.400 guy anyway).

It’s the homers. Not only that, of his 10 homers, he’s hit 9 with men on base. At the risk of sounding too nerdy, given his home run rate (10 in 57ab’s), he should have hit 5.6 homers with his 32 ab’s with men on base. He’s hit 9.

In other words, Alex Rodriguez is a bad, bad man right now, but he will stop hitting like he has eventually, and I would guess, very soon.

Manny is a couple steps behind, but I doubt there will be much difference in their overall numbers at the end of the year.
Advantage: Yankees

Fif
JD Drew – RF .341/.434/.455 9.4 rc/27
Jason Giambi – DH .255/.349/.509 6.1 rc/27

Kudos to me for the Dave Chappelle reference. I can really see why people hate JD Drew, and I don’t mean this sarcastically. Everything he does is very, very smooth, very quiet. He’s the type of player that gets labeled a ‘waste of talent’ because everything just comes naturally to him. His uniform always looks clean, he never looks like he’s running hard, he never gets too high or low. If only, ONLY, he would run harder, or dive for a ball, or send his helmet after striking out…imagine how good he would be then!

This hit me during Opening Day. Drew lead off the 7th and the Royals were up 6-1. He hits a grounder to first and Mike Sweeney lumbered over to the bag. As soon as he stepped on first, you saw Drew flying into the picture. In a five run game, our new right fielder that doesn’t care was hauling ass down the first base line on a grounder to first.

Jason Giambi’s days of hitting .300 are long gone, but if he can keep a stable walk rate and rip 35 homers a year, then he’ll likely only be overpaid by about $15 million this year.
Advantage: Red Sox

Sixth
Mike Lowell – 3B .280/.309/.460 4.4 rc/27
Jorge Posada – C .353/.393/.529 6.8 rc/27

Lowell is a freak of nature so far. Right now, he has only had five plate appearances that haven’t ended with him running to first. He’s trotted four times (one homer, three walks), and hung his head in shame once (one strikeout). He’s put the ball in play in 93% of his plate appearances (Ichiro is at 76%).

Jorge Posada is in a funny ESPN commercial with David Ortiz that ends with Wally the Green Monster just being completely horrified. The big eared bastard doesn’t even have the good sense to bend his brim.
Advantage: Red Sox

Seventh
Jason Varitek – C .189/.262/.243 1.7 rc/27
Robinson Cano – 2b .268/.323/.304 3.4 rc/27

Cano might win a batting title, but he sure won’t even be one of the most productive Yankee hitters. I’ve wasted too many words on these two to bore you with more…plus I’m missing my self-induced deadline/
Advantage: Yankees

Baseball’s Cruel Joke to Offense
Coco Crisp – CF .167/.212/.229 1.3 rc/27
Doug Mientkiewicz – 1B .147/.237/.235 0.3 rc/27

Occasionally, if I’m bored, I’ll go on to Wikipedia and feed my nerdish brain. Like, I’ll figure out how many Rhode Islands can fit in Greenland (688.7) or some other such nonsense to waste time. Much like the at bats of these two ‘hitters’. It would take 9.4 Crispkiewicz’s to equal one ARod.
Advantage: Red Sox

Ninth
Dustin Pedroia – 2B .167/.302/.167 2.4 rc/27
Melky Cabrera – LF .204/.228/.204 1.0 rc/27

They are hitting better than the men right above them but still below your more frisky pitchers. These are the wrong two markets to struggle in as rookies. Cabrera really shouldn’t be anything more than a forth outfielder for most of his career, but was thrown into the fold when Matsui went down, and Pedroia was anointed the second baseman, with the only pressures coming from Little Joey Cora. Both these guys are probably the best chances of being upgraded on in the trade market.
Advantage: Red Sox

Bench
Boston:
Alex Cora
Eric Hinske
Doug Mirabelli
Wily Mo Pena

New York:
Miguel Cairo
Will Nieves
Josh Phelps
Kevin Thompson

The Red Sox Opening Day payroll is $143million (from Cot’s. The Yankees cost $189.6million. The Sox have two guys that could start for some of the lower half teams (Pena and Hinske) and two more that should be serviceable backups this year (Cora and Mirabelli). The Yankees have nothing of the kind, though some of their fans have convinced themselves that Miguel Cairo is useful. I’ve also always liked Phelps, and I actually think he’ll break out of the platoon he’s in once Torre realizes that Minky can’t hit. See you in August, Josh!
Advantage: Red Sox (very big, but insignificant)

Pitching Matchups
Friday 7:05pm
Curt Schilling 2-1 2.84 (3.03 Dips, 4.87 runs saved/52.0 over 32 starts)
Andy Pettitte 1-0 1.59 (3.13 Dips, 6.73 runs saved/71.8 over 32 starts)

It looks like Pettitte should get the nod here, but I can’t do it. He’s allowed three earned runs, but allowed six overall. The unearned runs weren’t all his fault, obviously, but if you look at the pitchers that don’t get burned by them much…they are almost always the best pitchers in baseball. So what I’m saying is that if Pettitte his being hurt by defensive errors, he’s not doing enough to bail himself out either.
Advantage: Red Sox

Saturday 3:55pm
Josh Beckett 3-0 1.50 (2.83 Dips, 7.3 runs saved/77.9 over 32 starts)
Darrell Rasner 0-1 3.86 (5.58 Dips, 2.0 runs saved/21.5 over 32 starts)

Beckett might be the most fun pitcher to watch on the Red Sox when he’s on, which is no small praise on a staff with Schilling, Daisuke, and Papelbon. He’s been pitching like Boston expected him to when they relegated Hanley Ramirez to the swamp, but, being the jerk that I am, keep in mind that it’s still very early in the year, and his horrors started last year with the Yankees.

I don’t know much about Rasner, other than he will surely shut out the Red Sox. This is mostly based on the fact that he has been in the league less than two seasons.
Advantage: Red Sox

Note: ESPN had Rasner this morning as the probable starter, which is impressive since he pitched yesterday. It will be Jeff Karstens.

Sunday 8:05pm
Daisuke Matsuzaka 1-2 2.70 (2.37 Dips, 5.4 runs saved/58.1 over 32 starts)
Chase Wright 1-0 5.40 (6.27 Dips, -0.1 runs saved/-4.445 over 32 starts)

This is Daisuke’s first real test of American Baseball Offensive Might, after dropping games to the Mariners against a one hitter, and the Blue Jays, only struggling for about 4 hitters.

Chase Wright was my favorite character on Laguna Beach.
Advantage: Red Sox

Bullpens
Red Sox:
Brendan Donnelly
Hideki Okajima
Joel Piniero
JC Romero
Kyle Snyder
Mike Timlin
Jonathan Papelbon

Yankees:
Chris Britton
Brian Bruney
Sean Henn
Mike Myers
Scott Proctor
Luis Vizcaino
Mariano Rivera

The Yankees pen has thrown 60.3 innings, and Joe Torre has raised his arm 57 times. The Sox counter that with 35.7 innings, and Terry Francona only waddling out of the dugout 42 times. Most of this is the fault of the starting pitching, with the Yankees starters not even averaging five innings a start (4.9) and the Sox going deep into ballgames (6.2). But the harbinger of things to come is that the pitchers that Torre trusts are older, and if he keeps hitting them up for innings in April and May, they might not be there in September and October.

All told, the Sox pen, thought a weakness has been either inert (way not to screw up guys!) or down right good. The Yankees pen hasn’t been awful, other than a few slips here and there, but they are being ridden hard early, and their peripherals can’t support their ERA (2.69 actual vs. 4.25 Dips).

Rivera gave up a home run to Marco Scutaro. Papelbon is striking out 18.6 guys per nine.
Advantage: Red Sox (for now)

I tend to be conservative with these things, so I’m going to say that because two of the games are sure to be in coolish, night weather (which depresses offense) and are at Fenway, the Red Sox should take two of three.

Enjoy the games.

During the Spring Chein-Meng Wang hurt his hamstring. Then, this weekend, Carl Pavano, and Mike Mussina were felled by forearm and hamstring injuries.

That leaves the pitching rotation to Andy Pettitte, Kei Igawa, Chase Wright, Darrell Ranser, and probably, Sean Henn until Wang is ready (presumably on April 24th). This shows the folly of building a rotation around pitchers that have durability/age issues.

Truthfully, there is no reason for Team Yankee to even feign surprise. Pavano hasn’t pitched really since 2005. Mussina is 38 years old and hasn’t been the paragon of heath the last few seasons. Wang is young, but come on…he’s still a pitcher. Jeff Karstens was supposed to be the fifth starter, and his shoulder tightened up in spring. He’s scheduled to start his rehab assignment this week.

The Yankees are reaching down to their 7th, 8th, and 9th starters in April, which is unfortunate and unlucky. But the chances of not having to reach into that well this year at all were slight. Chances are, by the trading deadline, these guys plus perhaps Humberto Sanchez and Philip Hughes would have started games anyway with the volatility in the staff when it comes to health.

The question of what the Yankees could have done is unanswerable. They could have sent Jose Tabata and Hughes to Florida to get Dontrelle Willis, or dropped the coin to get Matsuzaka, or even someone who is less talented but can be counted on for innings, like Jeff Suppan. This question revolves around information we don’t know, such as how willing the Yankees were to make noise like that, and how willing they were to try and bludgeon teams to death with their offense.

The rotation is broken. The Yankees might have a reversal of luck in the upcoming months, with Pavano, Mussina, and Wang coming back soon and being effective, while Pettitte and Igawa both stay healthy. The chances of that happening are nill, and that’s not even considering performance issues, such as Mussina and Pettitte struggling last year, Pavano having a season and a half of rust on him, Igawa adjusting to the U.S. and Wang out pitching his rates.

The Yankees under Brian Cashman have a history of not sitting idly by while their team goes to shit. Some team will have a solid pitcher available, perhaps complete with a teammate with a poison pill contract that only a handfull of teams able to swallow and only the Yankees willing to. The fear might be that teams are wising up and forcing Cashman’s hand, when it comes to his prospects, especially Hughes and Tabata. The alternative might be a third place finish.

Unlike most Red Sox fans, I don’t wish ill on the Yankees. I hope they lose, but that’s only because the Red Sox success is directly tied to them losing…much like the Blue Jays losing, the Orioles losing, or Tampa losing. I look forward to Red Sox/Yankee games because of the intensity of the game…not because of some feud that started decades ago and now get driven up in a media induced furor. I don’t hate ARod.

But the Yankees rotation is the determinate of success for the team. The Yankees will hit, and the back of their bullpen will be solid, as long as Rivera doesn’t face Marco Scutaro and Bill Mueller. Actually, they will hit a lot. But much like the margin for error is very low with a team that wins 3-2, winning 10-8 is even riskier because of the potential of bullpen blow out during the year.

The Yankees are really only as good as their starter can hold other teams in check. They are off to a scary start.

Predicting player performance is a risky business and a 65% success rate is deemed good. When millions of dollars are at stake, it’s easier and more efficient to predict the changes in the market for categories of players (left handed corner outfield, right handed middle reliever, etc.) than specific individual performance.  In a market flooded with a particular talent, that talent’s price will fall but its value remains the same.  Simply, a player will be cheap if he’s got a common talent one year, but the next year his price (but not value) will have changed.  This is an important difference from the Moneyball A’s philosophy.  They sought players who other teams discarded due to a flaw; be it age, weight problems, or attitude, these players came cheap because no one else wanted them.  The players I will discuss: B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett and Vernon Wells have no significant flaws, but happened to be signed at significant times.

J.P. Ricciardi did a fantastic job of recognizing that the salary market in baseball would explode in the 06-07 offseason, so he spent a lot of his free agent money in 2005.  The signings of A.J. and B.J. were derided by sports writers and fans alike.  It’s hard to believe, but even I was wrong about these moves (GASP!).

Ryan’s contract was the largest for a reliever in baseball history, 5 years 47 million (average annual value of $9.4m), but he backed it up.  Are 38 saves, a 1.37 ERA, and a .86 WHIP worth $10m?  Your 2007 Red Sox would love to have him at that cost and commitment.  A five year deal is about a year too long, but Ricciardi wasn’t going to get him for under $45m and why not keep him for a fifth year?  Great move.

Burnett was injured and only made 21 starts in 2006, but his deal at 5/55 is an absolute steal when Zito gets more than double that amount.  Do I even need to point out that Gil Meche got the exact same deal?

I ask you, the readers, what kind of contracts would AJ and BJ have gotten if they were on the market this year?

“Well, why didn’t he lock up Vernon Wells last year? Huh? HUH?!”

I’m glad you asked.  J.P. didn’t know what Vernon was worth, and he knew he had him for at least two more seasons (2006 and 2007).  It would have been a huge gamble to sign him long term before 2006.  It’s a significantly smaller gamble now, and Ricciardi is betting that the bidding war for Andruw Jones and Wells would’ve gotten very expensive.  The price he got is good.

The acumen to understand where a market is going, be it baseball or stocks, is the key to success in either enterprise.  J.P. Ricciardi didn’t care what the newspapers and experts were saying when he inked his latest players and they’ve all turned out to be good moves.  It would be wrong to say that he knew that Ryan would dominate in 2006, but he recognized that there were going to be very few capable closers available in the near future and spent a little extra to get one of the best.

You know, he can dance if he wants to…

It’s been now what, four days, since the Worst Trade Ever in the Last Ten Years (this is a Steve Phillips proclamation) hath been executed by the men that occupy the Big Chairs in Cincinnati and Washington.

Usually, after a period of a few days when seemingly lopsided trades come down the pipe, the outrage dies down and there are a few people that come out on the other side. Case in point…it took about 2 days for the balance of the Nomar trade to come out a little bit. However, the thoughts of this trade have mainly stayed along the lines of “Cincy blew it, and should be contracted.” Or at the very least, Wayne Krivsky should be fired, and harvested for his organs. Except his brain. That has no use to anyone.

As a refresher, he was the trade:
To Washington:
Felipe Lopez
Austin Kearns
Ryan Wagner

To Cincinnati:
Gary Majewski
Bill Bray
Royce Clayton
Brenden Harris
Daryl Thompson

For the sake of simplicity and the fact I don’t want to write a whole lot, I’m going to strip out Harris and Thompson from the discussion…these guys are roster filler at this point. I’m also going to not really talk about Ryan Wagner much.

The principles of the trade are Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, Ryan Wagner, Royce Clayton, Gary Majewski, and Bill Bray. Ryan Wagner started this trend of drafting high ceiling, close-to-the-majors college closers high and rushing them through the system. Also, he’s been the worst, having no major league success and currently swearing at guys like Chad Cordero, Huston Street and Craig Hansen. “What makes them so good?” asks Wagner.

I’m going to make a quick assumption that Cincy was at the end of their rope with Wagner. I mean, despite the fact he was supposed to be piling up various relief accolades, he currently is getting turked by AAA hitters (ERA: 6.23).

That leaves Kearns, and Lopez going to the Nationals and Clayton, Majewski, and Bray coming to Queen City.

I’m going to change gears here for a second and try to figure out why the Reds made this trade at all. Here is what I came up with:
1. Cincinnati has a chance of winning a playoff spot, pretty much for the first time since 1999.
2. Their bullpen, park adjusted, was the 15th best in the National League.
3. The Cardinals have no starting pitching past Chris Carpenter.
4. The Reds offense, also park adjusted, has the 6th best offense in the National League.
5. The Cincinnati defense isn’t very good

Now, normally, trades are looked at in a vacuum. It’s A+B for C+D. This isn’t the case. Trades are mechanisms that really affect way more things on the team than just the principles. Case in point: The Reds didn’t just trade Kearns, they opened up the right field position, which means they needed to have a replacement. This is also me stating the obvious.

Now to the nitty-gritty. Felipe Lopez is the best player in the trade. He plays an up-the-middle position, and he hits well at it. However, he’s 26, and he’s regressed from his 2005 level. It’s never a good sign to see your 26 year old regress with the bat, even if it is a statistical blip. He’s eligible for free agency after the 2008 season, as a 28 year old.

Austin Kearns is also a 26 year old, 2008 free agent, and is a player with gobs of potential, and not enough performance to back up his perceived value. Gary Majewski is also 26, but he won’t be free agent eligible until 2010, when he is a ripe 30.

Bill Bray is a lefty that John Sickles liked, and I generally take everything he writs pretty seriously. He rates as a B- in his 2006 book, which means he’s a B/B+ prospect in normal-fan talk.

Royce Clayton is pretty much famous for his inability to hit and the fact he replaced Ozzie Smith.

But here is a dirty little secret…Kearns isn’t very good. He never has been. I love looking at rate stats, because they give you a very quick snap shot at the ability of the player doing the big things that hitters need to do in order to increase scoring for his team. But there are plenty of things that the rates don’t tell you. And through out his career, Kearns has been pretty bad at these things.

[Stat Geek Out to follow]Take this year for example. His pre-trade line is 274/351/492, which is good. Except he’s a right fielder. They should be hitting better. Next is the park, which inflates his value 2.6%. He grounds into double plays every 10.4 times he has the opportunity too. For comparisons sake, Mike Lowell is worst on the Red Sox by doing it every 11.2 times.

Now, his batting with runners on base, and scoring position actually cost the Reds 3.6 runs. He strikes out in 23% of his plate appearances, which isn’t terrible, but it’s coupled with a 10.2% walk rate. Add all this together, and you have a right fielder, who should be one of the best 3 (in the National League) hitters on your team. Kearns, because of his weaknesses at the small stuff, actually has the same value offensively as Felipe Lopez does, who his a shortstop having a down year, and slugging 100 points less than Kearns.

The numbers? Kearns creates (park adjusted) 4.83 runs for ever 27 outs he burns up. Lopez creates 4.80.[Stat Geek Out ends]

If you read that (and I wouldn’t blame you if you took a pass), then you could be asking why there is a discrepancy as large as there is between OPS and his RC. The answer is pretty much “Because runs created measures things that are ignored by the rates.”

Anyway, now the Reds have a right fielder who is overrated by virtue of his potential, and a shortstop who can’t really field (he’s a second baseman to be). “Why not trade them?!?” asks our Men Without Hats loving GM.

Jim Bowden loves to trade, and has a couple of bullpen arms that he could move. Say there is a conversation between the two involving Washington being a seller and Cincy being a buyer. Knowing that they don’t have a good bullpen (it’s horseshit) nor a good defense, Krivsky looks for an upgrade at short (with the glove) and is willing to swallow the relatively minor offensive hit in losing Kearns and Lopez, while getting Studs for the Bullpen.

The only value Royce Clayton has is that he can get the glove on the ball better than Lopez. There is a significant offensive downgrade between the two. But their bullpen gets stabilized by Majewski (who has only two minor blemishes, his IP’s have been pretty high this year, and his control leaves him sometimes. He does keep guys from scoring though, which is pretty important for relievers) and Bray (Future LOOGY or maybe a power arm closer –Me paraphrasing John Sickels.)

That sucking sound you hear is the hole in right field of Cincinnati, no? No. Filling in now is a kind of time share, between Ryan Freel (who rates as better than Kearns, even if he’s still a below average offensive right fielder. For the sake of comparison, Freel has a 5.52 Rc/27. Sorry, I’m a nerd), and minor league hitter Chris Denorfia (he’s has a high OB% anyway). I don’t see much evidence that those two won’t be better than Kearns in 2006, and at the very least, cheaper in 2007 onward.

To sum up…I think this is a negative for the future of the Reds. They did give up the best player in the trade for a couple of relievers, who are notoriously inconsistent. However, rather than trading someone awesome (Austin Kearns), I see it more them punting on a player that is a year or two away from being an expensive fourth outfielder.

Currently, in 2006, I think the Reds do alright for themselves here. I think they could have probably gotten a better package than roster filler and Majewski/Bray, but it’s not a complete pooch screw. From what we do know right now is that the Reds are finishing off a sweep of the Rockies, are primed to make a run in a wide open Wild Card race in the National League, and are probably the front runners to grab Julio Lugo from the DRays. Though not the best trade, it’s not like the Nationals just got Scott Kazmir or
anything.

In their last 17 games, the Red Sox have lost three times. They lost once when Dontrelle Willis started for the Florida Marlins and they have lost consecutively to Devil Rays’ hurlers Scott Kazmir and Casey Fossum. Notice any similarities between these three guys? They all throw with their left arm of course, and in case you haven’t noticed observationally, I’d like to point out that the Red Sox don’t hit very well against pitchers of this sort. Some data…and keep in mind that none of this is park-adjusted so the Red Sox actually will look better than they are since they play half their games in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway.

Overall AL OPS Leaders

1. Toronto: .850
2. Chicago: .824
3. Boston: .822
4. New York: .816
5. Cleveland: .813

AL OPS Leaders vs. RHP

1. Toronto: .852
2. Boston: .846
3. Chicago: .845
4. Detroit: .817
5. New York: .817

AL OPS Leaders vs. LHP

1. Toronto: .845
2. Texas: .829
3. Cleveland: .824
4. New York: .813
5. Chicago: .789
6. Kansas City: .777
7. Boston: .766
8. Tampa Bay: .765
9. Minnesota: .760

Remember, Tampa Bay and Minnesota play in environments that are far less favorable to hitters, so it is fair to say that they have hit lefties better than the Sox this year.

It’s just an interesting tidbit, and not one to worry all that much about because the American League playoff contenders do not feature too many scary southpaws. But should the Sox be fortunate to qualify for post-season play and the Minnesota Twins, and their combination of Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano somehow overtake the White Sox or Yankees for the Wild Card, look out. These Sox probably wouldn’t stand a chance.

Hi folks.

Long time, no see. Err, talk. Err …. write? Read?

Regardless, I apologize for my prolonged absense and give Sully all the credit in the world for carrying the load on his own. He’s the best writer of the bunch (with Jeff being the stathead, and me being … the techie?), so if someone’s going to do the bulk, at least you got to read the best.

The short version is that I’ve been working at a new job for about 9 months now and I’ve simply been swamped with work. Making it more interesting is the fact that my new job is actually doing web stuff, so I after spending 10-12 hours at work on the web, the last thing I want to do when I get home is spend more time on the web.

However, things are swinging back into balance, so I figure this is a good time to poke my head back in.

So, the Sox aren’t so bad, eh? I’m not convinced this is a World Series winning team, but as Sully mentioned the other day, at least they’ve finally dispensed with the pleasantries and are playing the best players regardless of age or veteran status. Last year’s front office wouldn’t have jettisoned J.T. Snow. Last year’s front office wouldn’t have tossed aside Clement, Seanez, and Tavarez for Lester, Delcarmen, and Hansen. For better or for worse, this year’s front office is doing that, and that’s making a huge difference in my faith that they’re not going to punt wins to support clubhouse chemistry.

Winning breeds chemistry. It’s that simple.

Now, the Sox are out performing their raw Pythag by 3 games at this point, but they’re dead on BP’s 3rd order wins, so that gives me a little bit of solace. Digging in a bit on a few players …

Kevin Youkilis rules. He ruled last year. He ruled the year before. He’s the poster boy for an organizational philosophy, yet the very same organization kept him down behind Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, and then potentially a J.T. Snow/Mike Lowell combo. I don’t think it’s possible to doubt any longer that Youks is a major league hitter, and further, a straight up major league player. I don’t think he’ll slug .500+ for the duration of the season, but he has proven that not giving him 500 ABs last season was a mistake, and one that most decidedly cost the Red Sox the AL East title.

Mike Lowell doesn’t suck. At least not yet. The scary thing is that he’s taken his June nosedive, just like he has every year in recent memory, buoyed by a good BA and handful of walks. I’m not ready to declare him done just yet, and I’ll readily admit to being wrong on the Lowell bounceback, but I think he’s probably going to tail off some as the season wears on, which makes me hope that Hee Seop Choi will get a chance to see some major league action.

Coco Crisp is performing exactly as I’d expected, so I’m not let down at all. I didn’t buy into the hype. His track record was that of a guy with speed and spotty plate discipline, and that’s what he’s shown when he hasn’t been hurt. His stats in ‘05 were helped by a somewhat high BABIP. He’ll make great trade bait should the Red Sox ever get a real CF.

Josh Beckett. What to say? He’s dominant, then less dominant. I’m firmly in the camp that he’s not worth a huge long-term deal, at least not yet. He’s had obvious trouble adapting to the AL, which isn’t surprising since he’s never been judicious with his pitches. The Red Sox don’t need a young stud pitcher, they just need a stud pitcher. With guys like Jason Schmidt potentially available at the deadline, and potential free agents like Jose Contreras, Greg Maddux, and Andy Pettitte in the off-season, I’m not convinced it would be prudent for the Sox to overspend on a pitcher just because he’s young. Beckett’s been around long enough that it’s not a certainty he’ll get any better. He’s a great pitcher, and one I’d love to lock up, but not for Burnett money. Under $10mm/season, I’m in. Over that, he can find a new home.

Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. The fact that I can turn on EEI and still hear people talking about trading Manny for Alfonso Soriano makes me happy that I can turn my radio off.

Finally, the guy who gives me the most trouble, Jason Varitek. As a former catcher, I’ve been a huge fan of Varitek’s. How can you not love the no nonsense approach he takes. He seemed like a perfect home team type guy. Then he bent the Sox over and they agreed to the worst contract they currently have on the books. He justfied it 2005, and has fallen apart in ‘06. He’s now passed the mythical 1000 games caught mark, and he’s taken the normal nose dive that catches take. He still hits well for a catcher, just not a $10mm catcher. The big gotcha, of course, is the intangibles. I, personally, have not been impressed with Varitek’s pitch calling since Joe Kerrigan departed. His “stand-up-for-the-high-strike” move infuriates me. But, his pitchers swear by him. The results just aren’t there. What pitchers has he made better? Pitchers don’t seem to get markedly better coming to the Sox, nor do they seem to get markedly worse leaving the Sox. It’s not a knock on the Captain, it’s just the truth.

At the end of the day, the Sox have a pretty good, but not showstopping rotation (Schilling is back to being a #1, Beckett/Wakefield are #3/4 guys, and Lester/Clement/Wells/Pauley are a crapshoot). The bullpen is similar. Papelbon is lights out, but the rest of the ‘pen is hit or miss. It is, of course, further evidence you shouldn’t spend a whole lot of money on your bullpen unless you’re signing a stud. Middle relievers are a dime a dozen and aren’t worth more than the league minimum.

The offense has been solid, if unspectacular. They’ve got moderate holes at SS, CF, and C (holes only in the sense that the Sox offense is usually studly at all positions). They probably won’t actively seek to upgrade those positions, since these Sox are apparently the defensive Sox, and while Crisp is probably stretched a bit in CF, there’s no one to replace him in the system.

The bench is iffy, but whatever, the Sox never pay attention to the bench and the guys they have their are always pacifiers and blankies to keep the manager or other players happy.

There you have it. My almost-first-half-summary. The Sox are in good position to keep plugging along, never getting too far ahead or behind the Yankees or Blue Jays. Things will get mighty interesting over the next month, as the Sox will probably try to find another starter, and possibly another bat. The bat might come out of the farm (Choi, possibly Dustin Pedroia, or the magically rejuvenated David Murphy), but the arm most certainly won’t. So don’t get too attached to the guys in Portland/Greenville/Lowell/etc., as they might not be around in a few months.

I’m noodling around an idea that makes me sad, which is basically a post that the Sox front office has been pretty mediocre since October 2004. But that’s for another time.

Last thing. I’ll try to keep it clean. F%#& Steve Silva and f$%* anyone who subscribes to the Boston Dirt Dog mentality. If you boo Pedro when he takes the mound the first time, you not only have no idea of the scope of what he meant to the Red Sox, you don’t deserve to ever understand it. You deserve to live in the minority of Red Sox nation who think that curses exist and anyone who doesn’t play here is a traitor and that the Yankees suck even though we’re playing the Twins. In other words, you’re a goddamn moron.

Boo him all you want after the first inning. But give the man the ovation he deserves when he takes the mound.

The Red Sox kept it going last night thanks to a phenomenal outing from Josh Beckett (8 innings, 8 K’s) and two towering home runs off the bat of Manny Ramirez. For good measure, just to add to his bizarre legacy around these parts, Gabe Kapler blasted a three-run home run of his own after replacing Ramirez late in the game. Don’t ask me about Kapler. He’s been a bad baseball player for a few years running now but somehow keeps getting a gig with these Red Sox. Now this year is a bit different because with Wily Mo Pena hurt, the Sox don’t have much else but still, I will never understand the Gabe Kapler phenomenon - not the annual job on a platter and not the fan fascination with such a shitty player. Remember, this is the same group of fans that booed poor Mark Bellhorn in the ALCS the year Bellhorn was probably the very best 2nd Baseman in the American League and just before he would go on a legendary tear in Games 6 and 7, and then 1 and 2 of the World Series. But I digress - good for Kapler. His home run last night was definitely one of the more fun moments of the season. Coming back from an achilles injury is nothing to sneeze at.

Like a number of their previous six wins, the Red Sox’s seventh consecutive victory came pretty easily and they have now outscored their opponents 55-22 over the last seven games. To their credit, the Red Sox have seemed more hellbent than I can ever remember on getting the best players onto the field as often as possible. There are no Roberto Petagine or Kevin Youkilis situations from years past where clearly superior talent got a good ticket to the game and little more. No, the best are playing this year. Wily Mo got his shot early and often, the kids are getting honest looks in the bullpen and most importantly, Jon Lester has a job taking a rotation turn with the Red Sox. Playing your best guys, intuitively, seems like a bare-minimum requirement for any baseball team management staff but surprisingly, teams have trouble doing this - to the point that it clearly costs them wins.

There have been numerous examples of this phenomenon in 2006. After a dismal start, the Minnesota Twins are 13-7 on the month and really appear to be hitting their groove. I predicted them to win the AL Central this season, but with Detroit and Chicago playing so well, it may be too tall an order to catch those guys. It would have been an impossible order with Lew Ford, Tony Batista, Juan Castro, Rondell White and Kyle Lohse playing prominent roles. With Michael Cuddyer, Nick Punto/Terry Tiffee, Jason Bartlett, Jason Kubel and Francisco Liriano now in the fold, I am not ready to abandon my pre-season pick. Add the AL’s best pitcher and one of its very best players to this enticing group of young talent and all of a sudden you are looking at a Twins team that will be making noise the rest of the way. Joe Sheehan summarized the Twins nicely yesterday (registration required).

The most egregious hose-job of a young talent this season did not take place in Minneapolis however, but rather in Orange County. Bill Stoneman, Mike Scioscia and whoever else was involved in the decision to demote Jered Weaver can lay claim to the most idiotic transaction of the season. For four starts with the big club Weaver posted a 0.76 WHIP, a 1.37 ERA and struck out about 7.5 batters per nine innings. In short, he was as good as a starting pitcher could possibly be.

Well last night he made his second start back in AAA. Want to know how he did? Well here’s the box. Pitching for Salt Lake, Weaver went the distance, struck out 14 and yielded just two singles and a walk. Meanwhile, the Halos reside comfortably in the cellar of the American League West. Just incomprehensible. Go check out Rich Lederer’s stuff on Jered Weaver to get a sense of how good the kid has been. Rich kept close tabs on him when he was a Dirtbag at Long Beach State (Rich resides in Long Beach) and has advocated that, despite some quibbles the scouting crowd has with the kid, he’s pretty freaking good. Put it this way - who would you want right now, Mark Prior or Jered Weaver?

The lesson is simple for GM’s and their staffs out there. Play your best players. Don’t mess around with veterans because they are leaders/likeable/cordial/kind/jokesters/cuddly or any other bullshit reason you see get floated about. Identify the 25 best guys in your organization, get them on the big club and figure out their roles. It will save you both early-season losses while your better players dominate the Minor Leagues and the embarassment of even casual fans demonstrating a clearer vision for your franchise’s success than you have.

It’s wet out, but my Dad and I are headed to the luxury box for the Phills game today - so we’ll comfortably wait it out as long as we have to. Curt Schilling takes on that piece of shit.

I’m a bit of a web dork. Hmm, let me rephrase: I’m a huge web dork. I work for a web hosting company, do most of the day-to-day tech stuff that affects our fair site, dig RSS, AJAX, and all of those other fun internet acronyms. So, for a while now, I’ve been using some of the “meme-tracker” websites — the most notable being tech.memeorandum.com.

A meme-tracker is, basically, a quick way of seeing what the big stories are in the internet world that day. The site does some nifty behind the scenes work of tracking a bunch of big sites, looking to see what stories are being linked to, and as more people link to/talk about a story, it shows up on the site. It’s kind of an easy way of looking at the big stories in a particular space (tech.memeorandum.com being technology, the original memeorandum.com being politics).

The man behind memeorandum created a baseball meme-tracker called ballbug.com. Ballbug is a nifty little site, where you can pop in and see a snapshot of what other folks are writing about. In one quick swoop, you can get a nice high level look into baseball for the day, with the ability to drill down a bit further.

There’s just one problem — baseball is already subdivided into 30 separate interest groups. They’re called teams. That fact tends to mean that the baseball blogosphere is already pretty well divided and insulated. There’s going to be just one or two interesting things for each team, each day (generally, a game or an injury). So, you can scan, see the big news, and drill down further … but because there’s not a lot of cross-pollination (we’re not linking to a whole lot of Bronx Banter posts …. yet), there’s not really any “big” stories. Each story is big only to the people in its area of interest.

Striketwo.net is another baseball meme-tracker. I’ve been using it for the past few weeks to help pick out stories for the “News from Around the League” posts I’ve been doing (which will be back, I promise, since I know how much you all *loved* them). It’s a nice tool, but it’s main page has the same problem that Ballbug has: there’s so little cross-pollination that there’s no convergence around big stories; instead, there’s just a big grouping around a game story or injury. Now, that will probably change if there’s a huge baseball story (Bonds being indicted, or a big steroid suspension), but even on a big day like Jackie Robinson Day, there’s just not a lot of commonality in the baseball blogosphere.

But … that’s not the end of striketwo.net’s talents. The greatest feature on the site is unique to striketwo.net, and the reason that it outshine’s Ballbug. It’s the Player Tag Cloud feature, and it’s fantastic. A tag cloud is used to give you a quick insight into which terms are being used most often. The larger the usage, the bigger the tag in the cloud (take a look, it’s easy to figure out). Striketwo.net has a tag cloud of player names. Each time a player is mentioned in a story, it gets tracked. Right now, Bronson Arroyo and Barry Bonds have both been mentioned a bunch. Val Majewski, well, he’s got sort of a small tag. There’s some team bias here: more folks write about the Red Sox and Yankees, so they get more mentions. But, it’s not so bad that it removes the usefullness of the tool.

This goes a level deeper. The tag cloud isn’t just used to see how often a player is mentioned. When you click on that player name, you’re dropped into a list of items that have referenced the player in recent days. It’s an incredibly useful feature, and something I find myself using often. Oh … did I mention you can get an RSS feed of a player? So, you want to know everytime someone writes something about Nook Logan? Or Kevin Youkilis? Just click on their name and snag the RSS feed into your favorite RSS reader (if you need more info on RSS, maybe start here).

Now, in the spirit of full disclosure, our fair site is tracked by striketwo.net. But we pretty much have zero influence. So this wasn’t done in any way to make ourselves appear bigger. The nature of a tool like striketwo.net is that one blog/site/person can’t game the system. Now, if you linked to this article on your site (and they told two friends, and they told two friends … ), then this would pop up on striketwo.net. That’s how it works–the more folks that link to something, or discuss a common issue, the more likely that it’ll vault up to the top of the home page.

We’re a couple of weeks into the season, and that’s given me a few weeks to use striketwo.net. I’ve found it incredibly useful, and useful enough that I thought I would spread the gospel a bit. Head on over and poke around a bit … and drop us a comment to let us know what you think. Or, take advantage of the striketwo technology–write your own review of striketwo, link it here, and watch the discussion get picked up.

Technology is pretty great sometimes.

Jimmy Piersall, Lyman Bostock, Willie McGee, Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran, Randy Winn and Mark Kotsay all have in common?

They are close (top 20) Pecota comps for Coco Crisp.

Of this list, Piersall, McGee, Damon, and Winn have all had volitility in their careers. Their power/discipline tends to be tied up to batting average, and although they have decient periphs, they go up and down based on the location of a few bleeders and bloopers that a defense gobble up.

Beltran and Kotsay were much more stable going foward until they both had dips in 2005.

Bostock was dead by the time he was 27.

Best player by age:
20: Piersall
21: Damon
22: Beltran (Crisp 6th out of 6)
23: McGee (7th out of 7)
24: Beltran (5th/8)
25: McGee (3rd/8)
26: Bostock
27: Beltran
28: Kotsay
29: Damon (note…Damon’s age 29 season would have been the 5th best if he had it in his age 28. All 5 players (minus Crisp and Beltran who aren’t there yet, and Bostock, who was dead, declined from 28-29)
30: Damon (They all bounced back, minus Kotsay, who is entering his Age-30)
31: Winn

From 32 on, McGee and Piersall ceased to be good baseball players, and instead were 4th outfield types. When McGee was 33, he had a big spike before he declined to his 40s.

In something unreleated to Crisp, Beltran probably will bounce back in 2006. I’m guessing the Age 29 decline came a year early.

What this tells me is that if the Sox get Crisp, there is a really good chance:
1. He will be a good 4th to 7th best hitter on a good ball team type
2. He will be decent defensively, enough not to hurt the team
3. He will have volitility of performance, but probably not big enough to be detectible considering he’s going from the best pitchers park in the AL (in 2005) to the 3rd best hitters park.
4. He will probably suck balls when he is 29…the year before he’s a FA.

As a note, I’m guessing that age 29 was the first year their collective speed started to decay. Less infield hits…triples become doubles things like that. In their age 30 year, they start to walk more and start getting those “old people skills” that James talks about, and their career gets a few years of that before they turn into guys that hang around and spell the starters.

Behold! The 2005 Chicago White Sox!

As you see, this team is pretty much a garden variety “Secondary market team” payroll wise. You have a few high priced players, a bunch of young guys, and a few vets on short contracts/money.

Now, enter the Wu…

The italics signify estimated arb awards.

Part of the issue with anything but the big market teams winning the World Series is that the younger guys will get big bumps in their arb awards, due to the “winning the World Series” thing.

However, we are looking at a $30 million bump in actual payouts to players from one year to the other. It’s unlikely the White Sox would win 99 games again, due to a few guys having very good years, and the oddity of them winning 99 games in the first place*. Even if you assume that Thome and Vazquez perform to their talent level, the White Sox wouldn’t be expected to put together a 110 win season. They basically added $30 million to tread water.

Now, the White Sox will probably still win the Central, due to the Twins running in circles, the Indians having some holes unfilled, and the Lions and Chiefs playing football. A 2nd consecutive Central title will probably cover the $30 million more in revenue, meaning the only thing that is really affected is Jerry Reinsdorf’s profit margin.

Still, jumping from $73 million in payouts to $100 million is a 36% nudge in salary, which I am willing to bet is pretty historic (save the New York teams). The White Sox are making a gamble on the weakness of their opponents as much as their own strengths.

*Jumping 16 wins while really only adding Podsednik, Dye, and AJP seems a bit much, given conventional weaponry, no?

Note: Neil Brenner and Ryan Toohil gave a hand with this thing. Blame them for the mistakes.

In the 7th inning, the score stood at 2-1 Cardinals.

“You shall not win so easily,” said the Gods of Baseball. “Sons of LaRussa shall be tested in faith!”

And just like that, an error, a single, and a home run put the Astros ahead 4-2. Lance Berkman, being the disciple of the aforementioned mythical spirit of baseball, launched the baseball bleacher-ward.

As you know by now, Uber-closer Brad Lidge had his 2nd straight shaky outing, notching two outs against the chafe of the Cardinals order, Dos Johns. Then a seeing eye single by David Eckstein, who was then proclaimed the best/toughest/grittiest (might as well just called him “whitest”) baseball player ever by Thom Brenneman and Bob Brenley. Steve Lyons just smugly nodded. He knows who butters his Eckstein.

I digress. Lidge, fearful of Jim Edmonds, throws but one pitch in five in the vicinity of the strike zone. Luckily, Edmonds obliged by swinging at a nasty slider. The rules of baseball where on Edmonds side, where four balls signify a walk and he trotted down to first. Cue Pujols. Two pitches later, the ball is crushed into the relatively large Texas (that’s where Houston is) night.

Lidge pouts. Pujols chortles. 5-4 St Louis final.

The Astros have won two playoff series in their 43 year history: the 2004 NLDS, and the 2005 NLDS, both against Atlanta. Twice before, they were in the NLCS (out of three times) and held the elimination game and blew it in the final two (2-1 in 1980 [best of five] and 3-2 in 2004). Right now, baseball is forcing the Astros to look down the same barrel of the same gun.

What is in the Astros’ favor? Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens are slated to pitch the next two games, and the kind of bizarre fluky fact that the Cardinals are 1-3 in NLCS in the Wild Card era. Also, it’s pretty tough to lose a series when you stake out to the 3-1 lead (though it has happened in the last two seasons).

In the checkered history of the Houston Astros, they have folded more than they have succeeded. Although they are still odds-on-favorite to take this series, the game tonight obviously didn’t help bring the Astros their first National League pennant.

Tonight guaranteed more baseball to be played by these two teams. I have no real rooting interest in this game, so I could just watch and enjoy, and I was treated to one of the better games of the post season so far. For the first time since mid-September, baseball is fun again. Yes, my friends, baseball is fun again because of the drama of the post season was rejuvenated by Messers Pujols and Berkman.

For the first time since 1959, the Chicago White Sox are going to the World Series. Bully for them.

One of the things that I talk to my friends about is how much I hate the White Sox franchise. Not only did they try to ruin baseball through tight-fisted ownership, and actually throwing the World Series, but they have had an intensely boring franchise history, with very few players that can conjure up enough feeling to say “Man, I sure do want to hear more about them…” In fact, until this postseason, I would have said they were more pathetic than the cross town Cubs, because they hadn’t won a playoff series since 1917, and no one cares. Not even in home town Chicago.

Of course, the 2005 version of the White Sox have told me to shut up, and slapped me across my face. I have to say that this year, my feelings against the Pale Hose probably caused me to underrate them. Of the four American League teams in the playoffs this year, I would have given the White Sox the longest odds to capture the pennant. My bad…

Anyway, I am not writing to tell you all this. One thing that has annoyed me this offseason is that the Small Ball mantra has been beaten into the heads of the viewers by such intellects as Tim McCarver and Thom Brenneman. I wrote the following about the idea of White Sox small ball perception vs. the way the Angels actually play on the Blair Wasdin Project:

The White Sox hit 200 Hr, 5th most in baseball. The Angels were 21st, with 147.

Despite this, the Angels scored more runs in a pitchers park (760) than did the White Sox in a hitter’s park (741).

The LAA’s K’ed a scant 847 times in 2005, 29th most in baseball. The White Sox were higher…17th (1002). As a result, the K:BB for the hitters was 1.90 for the Angels, and 2.30 for the Pale Hose (comparison: Red Sox was 1.60 despite their take and rake approach. The Yankees were even better at 1.55)

The reason for this is that the Angels actually played small ball smartly. They sacrificed 4 times for every 600 PA’s, they gained 9 bases through SB this year (approximately worth 5 runs, or half a win) while running at a 74% clip. Because they make contact a lot, they can hit and run successfully. Basically, the Angels play smartball. They don’t go deep in to counts because they don’t walk or strike out a lot, but they put the ball in play enough that their “single, run and hold the line for Vlad” offense actually works.

The White Sox are credited for SmartBall, despite hitting and running with guys that aren’t equipped for it (such as game 1 when AJP was nailed at 2nd), running without rhyme or reason (67% steals…but because they ran 204 times, they lost a whopping 42 bases to being caught. That’s just over 23 runs, or about 2 wins). They bunt a lot…almost 5 times per 600 PA’s. That’s a lot of outs to give up to net 741 runs. In fact, adjusted for park’s the White Sox scored 4.5 runs a game. This is compared to the Angels 4.9. (This might seem like a small difference, but its 65 runs over the course of the season…the difference between having the Yankees offense and the Reds…or even more dramatically, the Braves vs. the Royals.)

Basically, saying the teams are similar is all kinds of lazy analysis with the bats.

With the arms, the White Sox have 4 “#1 level” pitchers (one of the top 30 starters in baseball)…the Angels have 2, with one of them not available for the season. The White Sox bullpen is full of guys having their best years…the Angels are full of guys that throw really, really hard with crazy movement.

Are the two teams alike? Kinda…

But the Angels actually play the White Sox game well. The White Sox just keep trying to beat themselves, and are bailed out by a very good pitching staff and a home run. The Angels are the team the White Sox get credit for being.

In the next week, expect more talk of the fraud of SmartBall. Rest assured that I will be adding this as another reason I hate the White Sox.

The Chicago White Sox, flawed though they may be, present a real challenge for the Red Sox in the American League Division Series. Their run prevention unit is one of the best in baseball, as their starters are dependable, their bullpen lights-out and their defense very good. Fortunately for Boston, as superior as Chicago may be at keeping runs off the scoreboard, Boston is that much better at scoring them. This series will provide a litmus test of sorts for the �pitching wins� crowd.

The White Sox have four starting pitchers that all had better seasons than any one of Boston�s starters. Jose Contreras, Freddy Garcia, Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland contributed more than 890 innings of 3.52 ERA pitching. That�s just remarkable. Problem is, I think the Red Sox might present a tough match-up for these four. Like St. Louis� pitchers last season, these are four guys with under-whelming strikeout totals (combined 5.70 K/9) that rely on batted balls being converted into outs. The Red Sox tend to be able to handle these types, as they are patient enough to work hitters� counts and wait on a cookie (Think Trot Nixon�s 3-0 double off of Jason Marquis in Game 4 of last season�s World Series). Though Garland, Garcia and Buehrle show a bit of slippage since the All-Star Break, all three have still been pretty good. The Red Sox will just have to go up there with the same approach they normally take; get into favorable counts by exercising sound pitch-recognition and make pitchers pay.

If the Red Sox want to win this thing, they�ll probably have to hit Chicago�s starters because their bullpen is one of the best in the biz. In Neal Cotts, Bobby Jenks, Dustin Hermanson, Damaso Marte, Cliff Politte and Luis Vizcaino, the White Sox have 6 relievers that are probably better than any one option the Sox have. If that�s an overstatement, it�s only a slight one. Shit with Brandon McCarthy and/or El Duque potentially in the mix, it might be an understatement.

Defensively, the White Sox are also superior. Aaron Rowand and Scott Podsednik are two outfielders that can cover real estate with the best of them. Their infield defense is solid as well. Juan Uribe gets to balls Edgar Renteria can only reminisce about being able to reach. Tadahito Iguchi leaves a bit to be desired at 2nd Base but Joe Crede and Paul Konerko are just fine at the corners.

The adage �pitching wins� is not without merit but remember, pitching doesn�t take place in a vacuum. These White Sox pitchers, though better than Boston�s, have a decided handicap when matched up against the Red Sox pitchers. They have to face the Red Sox hitters. So you take your pick. Is Jose Contreras a better pitcher than Matt Clement? Bet your ass he is. But would I bet on Jose Contreras against a team that hits at a .280/.356/.453 clip over Matt Clement against a team batting .263/.323/.425? I�m not sure. The Red Sox offensive advantage is every bit as decisive as Chicago�s pitching edge. Paul Konerko is a bona fide good hitter but Chicago�s 2nd best offensive player, Jermaine Dye, hits at a level that is about in line with what the Sox crop of contributors not named Ortiz or Ramirez chip in. Guys like Damon, Nixon, Graffanino, Olerud, Mueller�you know, the solid guys. Nice players each and every one of them, but probably not the type of guy you want to be your 2nd most productive player on a championship aspirant club. Worse for the Pale Hose, there is a considerable drop-off after Dye. Iguchi is an offensive asset too but the rest of the lineup is made up of guys that would make for nice roster filler and little more. Podsednik and Rowand are well below average and the same goes for Crede and Carl Everett. A.J. Pierzynski is fine but with a .308 On-Base, he ain�t doing all that much. Chicago�s bench won�t help them either. Timo Perez, Russ Gload, Geoff Blum�blah blah blah.

Chicago has doubtless overachieved this season, but that doesn�t mean they can�t do considerable damage in these playoffs. Any one of their starters is capable of spinning a gem, while their bullpen is good enough to bail them out early and often should a starter or two have some problems. They very well may struggle with the bats, but then again, they haven�t excelled all year at putting runs on the board and they�ve come this far. Besides, there isn�t an offense above Double-A that, on a given day, couldn�t put some crooked numbers up against this Red Sox pitching staff. The Carmine Hose overlook their Pale brethren at their own peril.

For in-depth White Sox coverage, check out Exile in Wrigleyville over at All-Baseball.

The three division races in the Senior Circuit are all but decided but boy does the National League have a doozy going on for the Wild Card. Three teams remain in contention, and all three have a legitimate crack at winning this thing. Standings and each team�s remaining schedules�

FLA: 78-67 �
PHI: 77-68 1GB
HOU: 76-68 1.5GB

FLA:
2 @ HOU
3 vs. PHI
3 @ NYM
3 @ ATL
3 vs. WAS
3 vs. ATL

PHI
2 vs. ATL
3 @ FLA
3 @ ATL
3 @ CIN
3 vs. NYM
3 @ WAS

HOU
2 vs. FLA
3 vs. MIL
4 @ PIT
3 @ CHC
2 @ STL
4 vs. CHC

Glancing at the schedules, I would say Florida has the easiest route. They�re up a game already and play their last nine against Atlanta (6), who will be on cruise control riding out the season, and Washington (3), just not a good ball-club at this point. Florida�s next eight will determine their season. If they stay within a game or so after this stretch against their two direct competitors and the New York Mets, they ought to be able to post a good enough record over the last 9 games to take the Wild Card. Baseball Prospectus� Playoff Odds report disagrees, though I suspect some necessary, subjective considerations do not factor into the analysis.

Florida: 32.79778%
Philadelphia: 32.12422%
Houston: 35.67914%

This looks to me as though their projections are not taking into account that Atlanta won�t have very much to play for when Florida plays them in six of their final nine contests. In BP�s syste