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By Jimmy, 6/28/2011 10:01 am

The Red Sox had a day off yesterday after traveling down to lovely Philadelphia, so it’s a good time to update the prospect rankings.

Click here for the new rankings, or the link at the top of the page.

A couple of notes:

• Several players fell out of the top 25: pitcher Michael Bowden, catcher Dan Butler, and catcher Luis Exposito.
• Josh Reddick is on the list, however,  he recently passed the rookie threshold and is no longer a “prospect” by definition.  He’ll be off the list when I re-rank these again.

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By Jimmy, 6/20/2011 8:38 am

6/19/11: Red Sox 12, Brewers 3

Box Score

The Ageless Wonder once again turned in a stunning performance, allowing only 5 base runners over the course of 8 strong innings.  Unlike most Tim Wakefield starts of late, he was treated with plenty of run support against Milwaukee, as 8 of their 14 hits were for extra bases.

Top 5 Heroes:

Note the abnormally low WPAs (the entire team added up to around 50%).  You’ll see this when the game gets out of hand early, as it did yesterday afternoon.  Once the bottom of the first inning had ended as the score was 6-0, the probability of the Red Sox winning was over 90%.  Everything else that occurred in the game, such as Pedroia’s 6th inning HR, wouldn’t have much of an impact on win probability.

This is one of the strengths of WPA, as a metric.  It distinguishes the important plays from the ones that occur in garbage time.

Buzz Kill:

Clay Buchholz (back) and Carl Crawford (hamstring) are both on the disabled list, and both hope to return during the series in their home state, at Houston.  I talked about Buchholz, but the Crawford situation is just as troubling, if not more.  Speed is, of course, a big part of Crawford’s game.  If hamstring problems become chronic for him as he ages,   the Red Sox will be stuck with a very expensive, very mediocre outfielder.

Quote of the Day:

“It had good movement on it. Some of them went in to right-handers, some of them went in to left-handers. It did what good knuckleballs do. It was frustrating.”

- Milwaukee 1B Prince Fielder, on the knuckleball

By the way, if you’re wondering whether or not Wakefield ever faced Prince’s dad, Cecil Fielder…he did.  30 times.  Like father, like son; Cecil hit .111/.200/.148 against Wakefield.

Prospect Watch:

• SS A – The short-season Lowell Spinners started their 2011 campaign over the weekend, and there are a couple of interesting players up in the Cradle of the Industrial Revolution.  The one that stands out, however, is third baseman Garin Cecchini, who is regarded as one of the best hitting prospects in the system.  In his debut on Friday, he went 2 for 4 with a double and a SB.
• R – The Gulf Coast League Red Sox begin play today.  This is where you’ll see a few of the high school draftees and the prospects who graduated from the Dominican Summer League.  Two names jump of the page right now: shortstop Jose Vinicio and outfielder Kendrick Perkins.

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By Jimmy, 6/6/2011 10:41 pm

So, it looks like neither Bell nor Norris will be happening, as the Sox took a college outfielder with their final pick in Day One of the draft.  Jackie Bradley was one of the best outfielders in college baseball as a sophomore last season before hurting his wrist and having a mediocre junior year.  This sort of follows the strategy the Sox employed when drafting both Anthony Ranaudo and Bryce Brentz in 2010; taking polished college players whose stock dropped due to a recent injury.

He’s a quick, athletic left-handed hitting outfielder.  The Sox have gravitated towards this type of player several times in recent drafts, and it’s worked out fairly well for them.

On that note…good night.  More during Day Two tomorrow afternoon.

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By Jimmy,

This pick took a little wind out of my sails, as I was expecting the Sox to go after one of the two ultra-expensive high school talents still on the draft board (Josh Bell or Daniel Norris).  However, I really can’t get too disappointed with a 6’6″ left-handed high schooler whose fastball touches 94 MPH.

Aside from a decent fastball, Henry Owens also throws an array of breaking balls that could prove difficult to hit for the big left-handed hitters in professional ball.
As with the others, more later.

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By Jimmy,

Here you are seeing the first example of the Red Sox attempting to out-muscle the other franchises with their wallet in this draft, as Blake Swihart is a high-priced high school catcher who is committed to play for his dream school, the University of Texas.  Swihart, aside from being the most highly-touted catcher in this draft class, is one of the best high school bats and likely would have been drafted sooner were it not for his price tag and his strong commitment to attend college.

He’s very quick and athletic for a catcher, and some actually believe that he would be better suited at 2B or 3B.  The Sox will likely try their hardest to develop him behind the plate, where he would have the most value.

More on him later.

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By Jimmy,

Early June is usually a busy time in sports (mostly of the non-baseball variety), so the Amateur Draft will occasionally sneak up on you if your mind is on other things, as it did to me here.

This is one of those years that you will want to pay close attention, as the Red Sox have 4 picks in the first 40, and their rivals down in St. Petersburg have 10 picks (!) in the first 60.

We’ll provide coverage of the Red Sox draft picks in real-time, or close to it, depending on my work schedule.

As far as a preview goes, there are quite a bit of interesting prospects but the one that stands out to me is a high school outfielder from Texas by the name Josh Bell.  Bell is committed to attend the University of Texas and has reportedly made statements suggesting he will be very difficult to sign, but the Red Sox are known to pursue this type of prospect and have the financial resources to make just about any high school kid break their academic commitments.

Much to my chagrin, the first day of the draft is now held at night; it will be televised tonight at 6pm on the MLB Network.  It’s a practice that began last year, and I still haven’t warmed to the idea.  For decades, professional baseball has slowly been migrating from a daytime sport to a nighttime one.  The new MLB Draft is just the latest example of that.  I should probably just stop my bitching and accept it.  So, I will.

Heck in here tonight for draft coverage and commentary.

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By Jimmy, 4/22/2011 6:36 am

Sox Win First Extra-Inning Game of 2011

Box Score

I’d imagine that most fans here passed out after an arduous Bruins playoff victory.  If that’s the case, they’ll wake up to the news that the Red Sox also won in overtime.

Josh Beckett was outstanding again, giving up only 3 hits over 8 innings of work.  However, he received a no-decision, as the Sox squandered several scoring opportunities against rookie Tyler Chatwood.  Luckily, the bullpen came up big with 3 scoreless innings, and the Sox managed to score a couple of runs in the 11th.

Kevin Youkilis was removed from the game after hitting a foul ball off of his foot, but fortunately, x-rays were negative.  He’s probably day-to-day at this point, but I’ll update this if anything changes.

Top 5 Heroes (Fangraphs WPA)

WPA is an interesting stat to use when determining how “big” or “clutch” a player came up over a period of time.  However, one of my problems with the metric is manifested in last night’s numbers posted above.  Intuitively, you’d think that Josh Beckett’s contribution (8 excellent innings) was more crucial to the win than Dan Bard’s (a scoreless 9th inning).  Much of WPA is determined by situational environments outside of the player’s control.  Sometimes, to earn a good WPA, you just have to be in the right place at the right time.  It should never be used to figure out how good a player really was.  It can, however, be used to determine how good a player was when it counted.

Buzz Kill:

I do admire Jason Varitek’s accomplishments over the course of his career in Boston, but right now he looks like someone who should no longer be playing professional baseball.  Yes, I probably wrote that same exact line two years ago, but at that time my statement was 50% hyperbole.  The hyperbole in my words are now gone.  After going 0 for 3 with 3 strikeouts and a walk last night, the Captain is now hitting .043/.185/.043.  It’s a small sample (26 plate appearances), but it’s not like you can really rely on Saltalamacchia to give him a rest when he’s hitting like this.

Luckily, Varitek has some sort of magic catcher’s mitt that can transform pitchers like Josh Beckett from perpetually injured underachievers to a front-line aces.  In that sense, he might be worth keeping around.  Speaking of which…

Quote of the Day:

“Oh, I’m freaking locked in. … Fortunately I can help us win in other ways right now.”

- Jason Varitek, on his slump

Prospect Watch

• AAA – Bad news from Pawtucket as Ryan Kalish, considered by many to be the heir apparent to J.D. Drew in right field, hurt his arm while making a diving play.  It could be minor, but it could also be very bad; remember, Kalish missed most of the 2007 season after breaking his wrist.  In better news, Lars Anderson had three hits and is now hitting .320 with a .462 OBP.
• AA – Catcher Tim Federowicz, known primarily for his defense, is hitting .341/.375/.523 after going 2 for 4 last night.  Given the issues in Boston, he is absolutely someone to keep an eye on.
• High A – Kolbrin Vitek went 3 for 4 with a double, now hitting .341/.431/.500.  No, I’m not just copying and pasting this from yesterday’s recap.  He’s Lowrie-esque right now.
• Low A – Brandon Jacobs went 2 for 3 with a double, and is hitting .353/.452/.686.

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By Jimmy, 4/21/2011 9:18 am

Lowrie Leads Road Warriors to Victory

Box Score

Well, it took eight tries, but the Red Sox finally have their first road victory in 2011.  Ironically, they accomplished this by hitting reasonably well against left-handed pitchers, despite 12 strikeouts.

Top 5 Heroes (Fangraphs WPA):

Yes, it’s very suprising that Jed Lowrie isn’t atop this list.  You know you’ve set the bar very high when people start substituting your name for “Chuck Norris” in the Bill Brasky jokes.  While Jed did have a good game, Dan Bard’s 6th inning performance was absolutely key.  Hats off to Terry Francona by bucking conventional wisdom and inserting his “8th inning guy” into a 6th inning jam.  That’s exactly the type of situation where you want to use your best reliever (or second best reliever, depending on how you view Bard in relation to Papelbon).

Buzz Kill:

Red Sox catchers (Varitek and Saltalamacchia, combined) are now hitting .143/.176/.161.  It’s like having a pitcher hitting in our lineup.  If the Red Sox had lost this game, all you would be hearing about are Varitek’s double play and the five guys he left on base.  Naturally, Dan Shaughnessy has this topic covered.  What, did you expect him to focus on something positive?

Quote of the Day:

“Maybe you can call me the stopper” – Dan Bard

Prospect Watch

• AAA – Former top prospect Andrew Miller continues to pitch well, allowing 1 run and 4 hits over 6 strong innings.  He now has a 1.32 ERA after three starts.
• High A -  Kolbrin Vitek is on fire, going 3 for 4 for the second consecutive night.  He’s 8 for his last 13, including 3 walks.

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By Jimmy, 4/20/2011 6:37 am

Brett Anderson Continues his Reign of Terror over the Red Sox

Box Score

Boston finds themselves in the highly unexpected position of being 0 and 7 on the road, as Oakland’s man-child lefty once again dominated the Red Sox lineup, yielding 4 hits and striking out 8 over 8 scoreless innnings.  While John Lackey pitched very well against his old nemeses, he can thank his teammates’ offensive impotence for his second loss of the season.

One thing I should note as I go on: I’ve decided to scrap “Victory Shares / Pie of Shame / etc.” since Fangraphs.com and BaseballReference.com both have the tools and the capacity to track this sort of thing much better than I ever can.  I think it would be best for everyone involved to just summarize the key players here by listing their daily WPA (Win Probability Added).  FG and BBref both have their own unique calculations for this metric, and while I like BBref’s version a bit better (they use park factors in their analysis), on most days I’ll be using the Fangraphs version only because they typically publish their numbers earlier in the morning.  In any case, I’ll always let you know which version I’m using.

Top 5 Goats (Fangraphs WPA):

The Ellsbury WPA is very questionable, since the official MLB box score (the one I’m linked to up top) list the “Ellsbury CS” as a batter interference on Cameron.  It appears that the umpires weren’t exactly sure what had happened themselves.  The replays do show that Ellsbury was in fact safe, so if it actually is an interference call on Cameron, his name would jump to the top of the Goat list with a whopping -21.4% WPA.

Silver Lining:

John Lackey is the obvious bright spot here, throwing 6 quick, clean innings against a relatively tough opponent.  According to PitchFX, the main difference between last night and his previous start (the 4/8 bombardment from the Yankees where he actually got the “win”) was that he relied much less on his curveball.  Only 17 thrown out of 93 pitches last night, compared to 38 thrown in 93 pitches against New York.

Quote of the Day:

“I just work here” – John Lackey, on the staff’s decision to pull him after 6 innings.

Prospect Watch

• AAA – Not a prospect, but Matt Albers threw 2 scoreless innings of relief in his rehab outing.  He’s heading to Anaheim to join the team on Thursday, which means that Alfredo Aceves is most likely on his way back to Pawtucket.
• High A -  One of last year’s 1st round picks, Kolbrin Vitek, went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and a triple, while pitcher Chris Hernandez gave up 1 unearned run over 5 innings.
• Low A – Anthony Ranaudo, the organization’s top pitching prospect, continues to toy with Sally League opponents.  He gave up 3 hits and one run while striking out 6 in 6 innings.

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By Jimmy, 2/4/2011 10:11 am

One of the things I’ve been working on is a permanent page where I list my Top 25 Red Sox prospects, and as of 5 seconds ago, it’s finally up. Just clink the “Top 25 Prospects” link in the gray bar at the top of the page, and you’re there.

I’ll be updating the list and shuffling the rankings periodically based on new information as it comes in (sparingly in the pre-season, and more regularly once the minor league season begins).

Over the next few weeks, I plan on adding several more pages to that gray bar, including MLB Power Rankings among other things.

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By Jimmy, 12/18/2010 11:02 am

As Emperor Palpatine would say, the Red Sox bullpen construction appears to be “complete” and the relief corps is now “fully operational”.  Boston has agreed to terms with Dan Wheeler (I described him here a few days ago).

Right now, the Red Sox bullpen is looking like this:

Jonathan Papelbon, RHP
Dan Bard, RHP
Bobby Jenks, RHP
Dan Wheeler, RHP
Scott Atchison, RHP
Tim Wakefield, RHP
Obligatory Lefty, LHP

“Obligatory Lefty” will be one out of a group of Rich Hill, Felix Doubront, Lenny DiNardo, and Andrew Miller.  It probably won’t be decided until late March, but I’ll make a very premature prediction: Rich Hill makes the team, Felix Doubront joins the rotation in Pawtucket in an effort to develop him as a starting pitcher, Lenny DiNardo carpools with Doubront to Pawtucket, and Andrew Miller is released during Spring Training.

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By Jimmy, 12/6/2010 10:48 am

Now that the dust from the Adrian Gonzalez trade is beginning to clear, let’s take a quick look at what we have here.

First and foremost, any analysis of Gonzalez should be done while using his road performance, since his home park is extremely favorable to pitchers.  Let’s take a look at how he fared on the road, in comparison to his elite peers at first base:

Keep in mind, Adrian’s shoulder injury was sustained in May.  He was playing hurt most of the year, and was forced to change his approach at the plate to compensate for the weak shoulder.  Still, he ended up with some pretty impressive power numbers despite the shoulder issues.

The shoulder surgery is a mild concern, but we’d have to think that the Red Sox medical staff kicked the tires here before any decision was made.

Let’s take a look at what type of hitter Gonzalez is, and how his style might translate to Fenway Park.  Earlier, I commented on how Carl Crawford (another left-handed hitter) might struggle to hit for any power here since he was a dead-pull hitter and Fenway is deep in straight-away right field.  Fortunately, Gonzalez does not discriminate when it comes to the long ball:

Those were his home runs in 2010 thanks to HitTrackerOnline.com.  Plotting his homers, doubles, and fly outs at Petco on MLB.com tells a similar story:

See that nice little cluster of fly ball outs near the left field wall in Petco Park?  In Fenway, those will not be caught by any outfielder who isn’t wearing circus clown stilts.

Okay, now that we’ve established that Gonzalez is a lefty who hits to all fields, we can address the other concern people have in regards to left-handed power hitters; how does he do against left-handed pitching?  Before 2010, Adrian did struggle a bit against lefties.  However, his splits have gradually improved until last year he managed to actually hit better against left-handed pitching than he did against righties.  Behold:

Finally, let’s take a look at how Gonzalez performed against difficult competition (Interleague play and a select few elite pitchers with whom he’s familiar):

Adrian crushed the opposition in Interleague play last season, and has done fairly well against some very good pitchers, with the exception of Lincecum and Jiminez.

While no one is exactly sure how Adrian will play in Boston over the next few years (assuming he signs an extension) most of the recent data we have available seems to indicate that he will probably excel here.  It appears that Red Sox fans have a reason to be excited over this one.

Other tidbits:

• It doesn’t look like any contract extension is in place as of yet.
• Seven years for Jayson Werth.  Good god.  I’m guessing Nationals ownership will get a holiday fruit basket from the MLBPA union lawyers, and another one from Carl Crawford.

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By Jimmy, 12/4/2010 4:14 pm

Superstar first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, a 28-year-old who had a .573 slugging percentage outside of Petco Park last season, will be wearing a Red Sox uniform in 2011 (and likely for the next several seasons after that).

In exchange for the heavy hitter, the Sox give up three prospects: 1B Anthony Rizzo, SP Casey Kelly, and OF Reymond Fuentes.  While most consider Kelly to be the best prospect in this group, the guy I consider most valuable is Rizzo.  Back in September, I ranked these guys #3, #5, and #17 in the organization, respectively.

The Sox actually gave up less than I thought they would, and I’m pleasantly surprised they were able to hang on to shortstop Jose Iglesias.

My initial reaction to this deal is extreme optimism and exuberance.  They did give up some quality prospects that could have great careers in San Diego, but Gonzalez is one of the top hitters in the game.  The last time I was this excited over an acquisition was in the winter of 2000, when the team signed a certain free agent left fielder.  Gonzalez has the potential to put up similar numbers in Fenway Park.

We’ll take a closer look at Gonzalez on Monday morning.

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By Jimmy,

According to Buster Olney, Gordon Edes, and others, the Red Sox and Padres are on the verge of working out a deal to send superstar Adrian Gonzalez to Boston in exchange for (presumably) the entire farm.

I’m not sure exactly what the Sox have agreed to send to San Diego, but if I were to guess, I’d say: Casey Kelly, Jose Iglesias, Anthony Rizzo, and Drake Britton.  Four good prospects; two pitchers and two position players.

Nothing is done yet, and these things can go south rather quickly if talks get contentious, but Olney in particular mentioned that the Sox are already trying to work out a contract extension for Gonzalez.

Update: 8:10 pm – Deal is done pending a physical, according to ESPN Boston.

More on this later.

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By Jimmy, 12/3/2010 10:23 am

I’ll start off by saying that I think it would help the Red Sox immensely if they were to sign Carl Crawford, thus allowing them to perhaps package one of Ryan Kalish or Jacoby Ellsbury in a prospect-laden deal for another offensive weapon in the near future.  However, I feel the need to point something out.

I’ve heard some folks (most recently, John Wallach on 98.5) claim that Crawford’s power numbers should increase in Fenway Park.  I don’t really think this is the case.

When Crawford, a lefty, hits the ball in the air, he is a dead-pull hitter.  He’s Johnny Damon with slightly less power.  Let’s take a look at this home run chart from last season, courtesy of HitTrackerOnline.com:

The vast majority of Crawford’s home runs were hit to right field, which in Fenway in deep (with the exception of the area near the foul pole).   Even when the fences are moved in 8 feet this season, it will still be one of the more difficult straight away RF areas to hit a home run.

If you need more evidence, check out Crawford’s home run rate at Fenway compared to everywhere else:

Crawford would bring a lot to the table were he to come to Boston.  A dynamic presence at the top of the order.  Elite baserunning.  Excellent defense in LF.  Just don’t assume that he will morph into a 25-30 HR guy in a Red Sox uniform.  It probably won’t happen.

Other tidbits:

• Ron Santo, a guy on the top of the list of those snubbed by the HoF, has died.  If only he had some sort of aquatic creature nickname, like “Sturgeon”, “Pickerel”, or “Zebra Mussel”, he’d be enshrined by now.
• In an odd turn of events, the Red Sox have non-tendered Taylor Buchholz and Andrew Miller (yes, the two pitchers they acquired last month).  My guess is that the team may have some sort of verbal agreement worked out with one or both guys.

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By Jimmy, 12/1/2010 10:15 am

A few weeks ago, the Red Sox traded left-hander Dustin Richardson to the Marlins for another left-hander; former elite prospect Andrew Miller.

Miller, of course, was considered the top pitcher in the amateur draft back in 2006, but his stock has gradually declined since then.  He is out of options, meaning the Red Sox would have to keep him on the Major League roster or expose him to waivers.  To say that he is a project is an understatement.

Miller’s biggest problem has been his control, most likely due to his mechanical problems.  It’s not a pretty picture:

Pitching coach Curt Young has been lauded for his success with the young rotation in Oakland, but none of those guys were experiencing issues even close to what Miller is going through.  There are some parallels between Miller and pre-2009 Daniel Bard (as the linked ProJo article points out), but Bard has had the benefit of triple-digit velocity, while Miller is a guy who will need to rely on ground ball outs with his sinking 91 MPH fastball.

I’m not optimistic here.  Trading Dustin Richardson for Miller is akin to dropping $10 into a slot machine. You’re not losing much, and while the possibility of a big payoff is there, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Prediction: Miller will be out of the organization by May 1st.

Other tidbits:

• I often defend Tom Brady when out-of-towners rip him for being a long haired prima donna, but he’s making my position a difficult one.  Becoming the spokesperson for Men’s Uggs?  Really, dude?
• I’m not arguing the pros and cons of social welfare here, but it’s crazy that the majority of expiring unemployment benefits actually end on Christmas Day.  Not December 31st.  Not December 1st.  Christmas Day.  What kind of sick, twisted bastard wrote that policy?
• Time to crack open those travel websites and (if you’re from Rhode Island) start hitting those tanning booths.  The Spring Training schedule is officially out.  I’ll once again be providing on-site coverage for a week or so.  Last year, I was only involved in three near-fatal accidents with 90-year-olds, which is a record low for me.  Things are trending upwards.
• Things are still quiet.  Beltre and Lopez declined arbitration, but we knew that was happening.  I’ll be on the lookout for any news.

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By Jimmy, 10/14/2010 8:40 am

Prized pitching prospect Casey Kelly, whose stock dropped a tad this summer after a lackluster season in AA Portland, threw four strong innings in his Arizona Fall League debut.  His fastball reportedly sat at 94 MPH, and he threw mostly strikes during his quick and efficient outing (his first game action since straining a muscle at the end of the regular season).

He managed to snag the ever-rare four inning win (he was awarded the victory via scorekeeper’s discretion).

Random Observation:

Just a quick rant regarding a growing trend.  If there is one thing more annoying than your friends or co-workers telling you about their fantasy team’s performance, it’s the sports fan who makes a point to proclaim how he/she refuses to play fantasy sports.

“I don’t play fantasy football/baseball” is the sports fan version of “I don’t own a TV”.   People seem to take extra joy in announcing this.  Okay, you’re a purist, we get it, bully for you.  Yes, you ride a fixed gear bicycle and hand-grind your coffee every morning, wow, that’s just tremendous.  Yes, everyone should go outside and play more, yes, yes, technology is evil, congratulations, I’ll kindly get off your lawn, thanks for enlightening me, etc.

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By Jimmy, 10/13/2010 5:45 am

A few of the organization’s top prospects, along with some also-rans, will be headed to the Arizona Fall League today.

The first three guys on the list are legitimate prospects (see our Top 25), while the rest are organizational filler for the most part.

Other notes:

• Kudos to the Texas Rangers for sending Tampa Bay home.  TBS flashed a statistic last night that compared Cliff Lee’s postseason ERA to names like Christy Matthewson, Eddie Plank, and Wild Bill Hallahan (i.e., guys who pitched during a time where the league average ERA was probably around 3.00).  TBS’ ignorance towards the  concept of relative value notwithstanding, that’s impressive.
• Looks like the purchase of Liverpool FC is not really a done deal, and the issue will be hashed out in court.   I’m going to be honest, my knowledge of soccer can be summed up in the old FIFA games for Sega Genesis.  This is a subject I don’t know a whole lot about, so I’m going to do a bit of homework here.  If this deal does happen, I’d like to be able to write about the club at least somewhat competently, especially since Liverpool is actually playing games now whilst the Red Sox are not.

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By Jimmy, 9/3/2010 9:16 am

As the major league team continues to twitch and convulse like a car-struck deer begging to be put out of its misery, it is becoming increasingly clear that our focus should turn to the future.

Now that the rosters have expanded and the minor league season is winding down, this is as good a time as any to rank our prospects.

My definition of prospect is the generally accepted rookie definition: fewer than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.  Under this criteria, most of the younger guys promoted throughout the year (Kalish, Doubront, Reddick, Bowden) still qualify at this point.  Daniel Nava is only 13 at-bats away from reaching non-rookie status, and he’ll probably hit that milestone next week, so I’ll leave him off the list.

Ryan Kalish came into 2010 as a bit of an afterthought after names like Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, and Josh Reddick, but now he has a foothold in the crowded 2011 outfield picture after hitting .294/.382/.502 between AA and AAA and holding his own in a considerable MLB stint.  His presence may even allow the Sox to consider trade possibilities that would have been unheard of prior to this year.

I’m probably higher on Jose Iglesias than others, but there’s just something I find appealing about the prospect of stellar shortstop defense coupled with decent contact hitting.  Of course, the lack of power and plate discipline is a concern, and while the former will likely never fully develop, the latter could certainly be improved upon with another year of seasoning in the minors.  All in all, 2010 was a decent showing for a guy getting his first taste of professional baseball in America, and it appears as though he’s on track to take over for Marco Scutaro in 2012.

It’s really difficult to compare Anthony Rizzo and Lars Anderson at this point.  Both seem to have All-Star first baseman potential, but Rizzo has been rising quickly, while Anderson’s stock has been stagnant after he was a tad over-hyped in his first pro season.  Both players are young for their current levels, and both will likely repeat in AA and AAA next season, respectively.  While neither player’s overall numbers are eye-popping, it should be noted that Anderson hit .286./376./486 on the road in AAA, while RIzzo has his .268/.356/.497 after the All-Star break.

Casey Kelly came into the year as the consensus top pitching prospect in the organization, but he has been overmatching a bit in Portland this season after being aggressively promoted (like Anderson and Rizzo).  Right now, his fastball sits at around 91-92 MPH, so he’ll need to add some velocity if he is to reach his full potential.  Still, Kelly has shown excellent command of multiple pitches, and was one of the youngest starting pitchers in his league this season.  He has lots of time to develop.

With Iglesias receiving a lot of hype after his impressive debut, Yamaico Navarro is probably the most underrated prospect in the organization.  It appears that a lot of folks are fogetting that Iglesias isn’t the only decent SS prospect in the system.  Navarro, still only 22-years-old, has been very impressive since being promoted to Pawtucket, and even flashed competence during a brief trial in Boston.

Anthony Ranaudo is a 2010 bonus baby with a very high potential, albeit at a high risk.  He was the best pitcher in college baseball before suffering an elbow injury, and has yet to return to form.  Theo Epstein, as he is prone to do, shelled out top dollar for the high-upside arm in hopes that his potential will one day be realized.

Perhaps no other prospect saw his stock fall further (not including injured guys like Ryan Westmoreland and Junichi Tazawa) than Josh Reddick.  However, Reddick has been hitting very well lately, raking at a .363/.385/.643 clip since the All-Star break.  He still has the potential to be a decent starting outfielder at the Major League level, and his recent play has been very encouraging.

My favorite catcher in the system is the big-hitting Yalie, Ryan Lavarnway.  A lot of folks discount him due to his defensive shortcomings, but honestly, I cannot remember the last time the Red Sox employed the services of a strong throwing defensive catcher on a regular basis (as a starter).  The most recent guy I can think of would be Tony Pena, and I’d rather not see a return to those days.  It’s time to accept that a team can win with an all-bat/no-arm catcher.

The left-handed Felix Doubront (along with his RHP counterpart, Michael Bowden) has found a role on the major league staff by lending his arm to a decimated bullpen, and he has performed somewhat impressively there.  However, I think he still may have a career in the back-end of a major league rotation in his future, barring injury.  His potential is similar to the injured Junichi Tazawa.

All in all, it seems like a fairly deep minor league system, with a lot of new talent added via a strong draft and the Manny Delcarmen trade.  We’ll keep an eye on things as the Arizona Fall League and the winter leagues kick into gear.

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By Jimmy, 8/31/2010 4:07 pm

Amalie Benjamin reports that the Sox just went and traded the only member of the team who was actually raised in Boston, and thus ends one of the more frustrating tenures of a Red Sox reliever in recent memory.

In return for Manny Delcarmen and an undisclosed amount of cash, the Red Sox receive a 21-year-old A-ball pitcher by the name of Chris Balcom-Miller.

Just from eyeballing Balcom-Miller’s peripheral statistics this season (and not knowing anything about him from a scouting standpoint) I would guess that he might crack the bottom of the organization’s top 20 list.  His K/BB ratio certainly deserves some attention.