I thought it might be interesting to try to put together a theoretical 25-man roster of the best prospects in the organization, based on their expected position or role if/when they reach the big leagues.

By “best” prospects, I mean best combination of ceiling and likelihood of reaching ceiling, which is basically the same criteria used to normally rank these guys.

Lineup:
C: George Kottaras - His numbers are deceiving. For some odd reason, he’s crushing the ball on the road, but hitting terribly at Pawtucket. Is he allergic to renovated factory buildings and mill-style lofts?
1B: Lars Anderson - Barely edges Bates. His ceiling is sky high, but very far away.
2B: Chih-Hsien Chiang - Pure ceiling guy. Can be a monster at 2B if his bat continues to develop.
3B: Miguel Almanzar - 16 years old, thus this is another pure ceiling pick. He’s currently a SS, but given his size (6′5″ and growing), he might have to move to the hot corner. Management thinks his ceiling is sky-high, given a $1.5 million signing bonus.
SS: Jed Lowrie - He’s been playing SS regularly at Pawtucket. May become a solid offensive SS at the big-league level. Great plate discipline.
LF: Bubba Bell - Barely edges a slew of other corner outfielders in the organization. Even though Lancaster is a hitter’s environment, his utter dominance of the league can’t be ignored, at least until we see how he continues to adapt to AA.
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury - an easy pick.
RF: Brandon Moss - an easy pick, although he’s cooled down a bit lately. Also playing a little 1B in Pawtucket, which doesn’t hurt his stock.

Bench:
C Mark Wagner - Gaudy offensive numbers, and he might actually stick at catcher. But, he’s padding his numbers in Lancaster, and still has a long way to go.
IF Oscar Tejeda - A pure ceiling pick. The 17-year-old is impressing in rookie ball, and the brass thinks he might be able to stick at SS for a while.
CF Ryan Kalish - Stock shot up this season, before sustaining a season-ending injury.
1B Aaron Bates - Needs a change of scenery, pronto.
LF/RF Josh Reddick - Stock has shot up, hitting extremely well in the Sally League. Still far away.

Rotation:
1 Clay Buchholz - Yessir.
2 Michael Bowden - One of the youngest starting pitchers in all of AA. Had a rough adjustment period, but is holding his own in the league now.
3 Justin Masterson - Stock has essentially gone though the roof this season. Very close to Bowden, you won’t go wrong putting either at #2.
4 David Pauley - A pure expectations pick. Has been getting it done in AAA for a while now, and could likely hold his own in the back-end of several MLB rotations…just not in this town.
5 Kris Johnson - Really tough to evaluate him in Lancaster (God, I hate that place).

Bullpen:
CL Craig Hansen - He’s back…
MR Craig Breslow - Would be in the major leagues in most other organizations. The left-hander’s time will come soon enough.
MR Edgar Martinez - We’ve been waiting for his secondary stuff to get better, but it hasn’t really happened. He still throws heat, and is doing well enough in AAA. Might pop up in September.
MR Daniel Bard - 2007 is a lost season, but with his stuff, I can’t just ignore him. Might need to reinvent himself as a reliever, as his blistering fastball might not be enough to cut the mustard in a big league rotation.
MR Devern Hansack - At age 29, he’s not a prospect, and his window is barely open at this point. However, he still throws strikes, he still has flashes of brilliance at AAA, and frankly, I like him so I’m adding him here.
MR Dustin Richardson - The big lefty has a decent arsenal of pitches, and is starting games for Greenville, but some project him as a reliever further down the road.
MR Bryce Cox - Stock has really plummeted this season, as the reliever is struggling in the Sally League, after being demoted from AA Portland. His control has been terrible. Still makes the list on potential alone.

Don’t call him a “bust” just yet.

Craig Hansen, the 2005 1st round draft pick, still only 23-years-old, appears to have “found something” in AAA.

In his last 10 games, Hansen has had an ERA of 1.62, a K/9 of 11.34, and a K/BB of 4.2.

After suffering through that third-trimester abortion of a baseball game, we might as well put on our rose-colored goggles and look for some positive information (besides the whole 8 game lead, of course). Allow me to play the role of The Propeganda Machine, and feed you some good news on this blue Sunday.

From what I gather by listening to WEEI, even the casual fans out there have heard of prized pitching prospect Clay Buchholz. Another highly-touted prospect, if not on Clay’s level, is young Michael Bowden. Both of those kids have garnered the majority of the hype in this town, as far as pitching prospects go.

If you haven’t heard yet, you’re hearing it now: there is yet another name to add to the ranks of top Red Sox prospects, another pitcher who has been tearing his way through the minor leagues of late:

Justin Masterson.

Masterson, a monolithic figure at 6′6″, 250 lbs, was drafted in the second round last year out of San Diego State University, the alma mater of Marshall Faulk and Fred “Hunter” Dryer. His #1 weapon is his heavy sinker, delivered from a 3/4 arm-slot, touching 94 MPH, and inducing more ground balls than a bowling alley. Masterson was drafted as a reliever, but converted to a starter in 2007, and has had great success on the hill recently.

Justin was originally assigned to Lancaster of the California League at the beginning of the season. Since Lancaster is the gravitational equivalent of the planet Neptune, all pitchers there tend to look like Dave Eiland, while all hitters there tend to look like Barry Bonds. Masterson faired very well considering this atmosphere, yielding a 4.33 ERA in 17 starts, along with a 2/1 ground ball to fly ball ratio.

It was after his promotion to AA Portland that Masterson really began to get people’s attention.

In 4 starts in Portland, Masterson has pitched 26 innings, giving up only 10 hits, 5 walks, and an ERA of 1.04. He has struck out 32 hitters, and get this: all 32 strikeouts have been swinging.

Of course, this is a small sample, and this streak is unsustainable. Numbers aside, the scouts are abuzz over this kid, raving about his makeup, build, and command of a whip-like sinking fastball that hearkens back to the days of Derek Lowe. Keep an eye on this guy, as he could be seen in a MLB relief role at some point in the near future, and possibly a starting role in the next year or two.

In no particular order, here are some up-and-coming guys in the Red Sox organization who have been drawing notice lately.

Jacoby Ellsbury, 23 CF AAA: No longer a secret, even to the Pink Hat faction of Red Sox Nation, after the speedster hit .375 over a 16 at-bat cup of coffee at Fenway.  Prospectphiles everywhere cried out in agony as Terry Francona sent the kid back down to AAA after his 2-2 performance last night.  Hopefully, Jacoby will work on adding some pop to his bat, because infield hits and bloopers will not be suffecient to carry him to stardom at this level.  Gotta love the glove and speed, though.

Craig Breslow, 26 RP AAA: Not really a prospect, in the sense that he’s turning 27 next month, but certainly a guy that could be a useful bullpen arm on almost any team in the majors right now.  At this point, the numbers game is victimizing the CT native, as he’s dominated AAA hitters for 2 years now.  The lefty is particularly tough on left-handed hitters, but has also made quick work of righties at this level.  Probably an improvement over 2 or 3 pitchers in the Red Sox bullpen right now.

Oscar Tejeda, 17 SS R: A caveat: always take Rookie Ball stats with a grain of salt.  The quality of competition, the fields, the weather, they create variables that can skew things in either direction.  With that said, this teenager is tearing the league a new asshole.  At an age where I was mastering Final Fantasy III and still trying to get laid for the first time, Oscar Tejeda is hitting .340/.426/.553 in his professional debut.  Still a long way from the bigs (5 years at least), he has a nice glove to go along with his bat, and might be able to stick at SS.

Clay Buchholz, 22 SP AA: Could be sent to AAA soon.  It’s all been said before, plus-plus-changeup, plus fastball and curve, yadda yadda.  Not much more I can say, I’ll just post his current stats: 86.2 IP, 55 hits, 22 walks, 116 strikeouts, 1.77 ERA.  In my last prospect report, I said “he could be” the best pitching prospect in the minors.  I’ll just update that statement slightly: he is the best pitching prospect in the minors. 

Jed Lowrie, 23 SS AA: Jed possesses tools the Red Sox organization loves to see: terrific plate discipline and a steady middle-infield glove.  Now hitting .296/.405/.485, Lowrie could become a Pedroia-type hitter at the big league level, perhaps without Dustin’s extreme contact abilities.  He’s actually tall and lanky (unlike #15), has a decent arm, and might be able to stick at SS.

And now, a sleeper…

Josh Reddick, 20 RF A:  After being drafted in the 17th round last year, The Chronicles of Reddick are off to an inspiring beginning, as Josh is mashing in the Sally League (.338/.386/.529).  The one hole in his game right now is plate discipline, as Josh’s bat does not meet many pitches it doesn’t like.  What is encouraging is that he still manages to hit everything, only striking out 15 times in 169 plate appearances.  Keep an eye on this one…

This year’s amateur draft is slightly different than what we’ve been used to, as the Red Sox have no first round picks, and their first selection is #55 overall. 

Here is a quick overview of how the Sox drafted on Day 1.

1. (#55) Nicholas Hagadone, LHP, University of Washington
Hard-throwing lefty was his team’s closer this season, but was a starter before that.  Scouting director Jason McLeod mentioned yesterday that they’d like Nick to start.  Has a plus fastball, plus breaking ball, and a big pitcher’s frame.

2. (#62) Ryan Dent, SS, CA HS
Athletic, possible 5-tool player.  Draws comparisons to Rafael Furcal (minus Raffy’s penchant for booze).  Signed a letter of intent to UCLA, so the Sox will need to make it worthwhile.

3. (#84) Jeffrey Morris, 3B, AL HS
This type of player gives Boston scouting directors a raging hard-on: a big power hitter with plate discipline.  Still very raw but with a powerful frame (6′4″, 200 lbs), the young slugger set the Alabama state record for walks in a season last year.  Has committed to Auburn University. 

4. (#114) Brock Huntzinger, RHP, IN HS
Dominated the Indiana high school circuit with a microscopic 0.27 ERA in his senior year.  Hard thrower with a mid-90’s heater and a slider.  Will likely be an easier sign than the two guys above. 

5. (#144) Christopher Province, RHP, Southeastern Louisiana University
Another fireballer, this one a reliever.  Didn’t have the best statistics, but features a fastball that touches 97 MPH and an improving slider in the high-80’s.

6. (#174) William Middlebrooks, 3B/RHP, TX HS
A double-threat high schooler, the Sox reportedly like him as an infielder, despite his 94 MPH fastball.  Has the makings of a heavy-hitting third baseman.  Might be a tough sign, as he is a 4.0 student committed to Texas A&M, and would be a punter on the Aggies football team.

Overall, it looks like the Sox were high school heavy in the early stages of the draft, which, to be honest, I prefer.  I’m a big fan of the steep convexity on the draftee yield curve, provided by the talented high school kids, the tough signs (think Lars Anderson and Michael Bowden). 

It might be risky, it might not be the Moneyball way, but a team like the Sox can afford the risk.

On the wake of a sweep at Texas (more on that tomorrow morning), let’s take a gander at some of the surging minor league prospects in the Red Sox organization.

Jacoby Ellsbury (23, AAA, CF): After obliterating AA, Jacoby struggled a bit when first promoted to AAA. However, he seems to have adapted, raising his numbers to .299/.378/.379, swiping 8 bases in 10 attempts, and playing is usual stellar CF defense.

Clay Buchholz (22, AA, SP): Shined on the national spotlight in an ESPN start against Roger Clemens in Trenton.  Is toying with Eastern League bats (61/7 K/BB in 46 innings, 1.97 ERA), and drawing rave reviews with his multiple plus-pitch arsenal.  Probably a Top 5 minor league pitcher, and maybe second to only Yovanni Gallardo in the Brewers organization.

Brandon Moss (23, AAA, RF): The rocket-armed corner-outfielder has reclaimed the prospect status he had after the 2004 season.  Now with an OPS of .956, the lefty hits left-handed pitching just fine (.911 OPS vs LHP).

Michael Bowden (20, AA, SP): In terms of prospect rankings, Bowden has been in the ominous shadow of Buchholz since they were drafted in 2005.  However, Bowden’s raw numbers are just as impressive, especially the way he dominated the severe hitter’s environment at Lancaster (1.37 ERA in 46 innings). Bowden is off to a nice start in AA as well, making the Portland rotation one of the best in AA. 

Jed Lowrie (23, AA, 2B): After scuffling for over a year, Lowrie has been red-hot.  Offensively, he draws comparisons to Dustin Pedroia, showing some gap power and excellent plate discpline (although Jed does not resemble him physically, standing at 6 feet and 180 pounds).  His OBP is now at .422.

Lars Anderson (19, A, 1B): The HS bonus baby has not disappointed.  Hitting at a remarkable clip for his age (.329/.414/.509), and the kid has yet to fill out.  Once he bulks up a bit…watch out.

Aaron Bates (23, A+, 1B): A bit old for the league, Aaron has been doing everything he can to get himself promoted.  Hitting 4 HRs in a game last week (the first time that happened in California League history), Bates is among the league-leaders in just about every category.  He likely would be the league-leader in these categories, were it not for…

Bubba Bell (24, A+, OF): As a 24-year-old in A ball, he’s not really a “prospect”, but I had to write something about him. Bell is leading the league in the following categories: homers, hits, OPS, SLG%, runs, RBI, total bases, K/BB ratio.  His batting average of .378 is one point behind the league-leader.  Basically, he has no business being in the California League anymore.

And now, for one of my personal favorite prospects, a real sleeper:

Chih-Hsien Chiang (19, A, 2B): The Taiwanese import is holding his own in the Sally League, hitting (.295/.304/.423) with improving defense.  Chih-Hsien is very raw, and needs to improve his defense to stick as an infielder as higher levels, but he has tremendous potential as an offensive threat.  Like Anderson, he has yet to fill out and reach his true power potential.  Keep an eye on him.

There is literally nothing to be learned from his start on Thursday. Sorry, there just isn’t, other than a Yankees starting rotation desperate for arms to go deep in the game are likely not to find an answer from The Boy King. Monday told a different story all together, even though the Rangers are what can only be accurately described as a ‘crappy major league team’.

The start against the Blue Jays was a cautionary tale of having a young base baller on the mound for you. It really was a generic appearance…he had good command of his fastball, but poor control. Spotty command of his breaking pitches, and no real off speed pitch that could fool major league hitters. One at bat, you saw a flash of absolute greatness, the next at bat was a battle of Major Leaguer versus Not-Yet-Ready.

Take a look at the debut games of guys like Felix Hernandez, or Andrew Miller…recent young right handers who were pushed into service.

But something happened between Thursday and Monday…Philip Hughes put it all together (as youngsters do sometimes…especially pre-drinking age) against the Rangers. They absolutely couldn’t touch him.

Handed a six run lead before the game even entered the second third, Hughes strung together those ‘flashes’ I mentioned earlier, and was using his curve and fastball to eliminate any chance the Rangers had to get back in the game. By the time he was pulled in the 7th, he had thrown 83 pitches, 53 for strikes. He struck out Kenny Lofton, Mark Teixeira, Victor Diaz, Brad Wilkerson twice, and Gerald Laird. Only three outs were recorded in the air. This game was pitched by developing pitcher with a unobtainable ceiling…not a guy with a lot of hype and 4 MLB innings under his belt.

That is the story that should have been written. Instead, I get to bore you with some reality, because I’m sure as you know, Phil Hughes left the game with a hamstring injury.

This is very, very dangerous for a very specific reason…the legs are the most important part of the body in baseball. In pitching, if you have to change your leg mechanics at all, it might shift the strain on your upper body. The most famous example is that Dizzy Dean broke his foot, and came back before he was completely healed. He had to change his landing spot on the mound, to alleviate the pain on his foot. In doing so, his mechanics were out of wack, his arm died, and so did his career.

This is where the Yankees have to be very careful. The official word is that he’s on the shelf for four-to-six weeks…but in order for his arm not to atrophy, he’ll likely start pitching when he can put weight on his hamstring. If the leg isn’t completely healed, this 20-year-old…already in the throes of a deadly part of his career, injury-wise…faces a dire injury situation. Stress that used to be on the shoulder and oblique muscle could be transfered to the elbow.

The Yankees can’t shut him down obviously, so they are in a precarious position. The margin for error is fairly tight with any young pitcher, and considering Hughes is the hurling future of the Yankees, being overly cautious might be the best track.