It’s maddening as hell.

Watching Clay Buchholz these last few months has been like watching your 7-year-old son, the one with the IQ of 127 and an affinity for taking computers apart and putting them back together, get pulled out of the “normal kids” class for biting girls on their ankles and drawing pictures of dead bodies.

That is what we are seeing here. A child, one who is obviously gifted, struggling to adapt to his current environment.  So, the Red Sox treated him as such, sending him as far away from Boston as they could.

Clay Buchholz, 1 year removed from throwing a no-hitter, has been demoted to AA Portland after losing yet another game last night.

In 286 minor league innings before this season, Clay had issued 87 walks and 21 HRs in 286 innings of work.  This is an average of 2.74 walks and 0.66 HRs per game.  This season in Boston, his walk and HR rates have both nearly doubled, to 4.86 and 1.30 respectively.  Obviously, a young pitcher will naturally give up more walks and home runs against tougher hitting in the Major Leagues, but an increase this drastic is atypical.   Anyone who has watched him this season can tell you that his stuff is not an issue, but his location has been piss poor.

So, what on earth is wrong with him?

You all know the story by now.  In a span of 5 months, Jon Lester has transformed from a shaky 5th starter on the brink of a demotion to a legitimate ace.  His walk rate and HR rates have plummeted, and as a result he has allowed 30% fewer runs than a year ago.  He’s already had 2 CG shutouts this season (including a no-hitter), and he had yet another strong performance last night.

So, what has changed?  Clearly he is allowing more contact this year, as his K rate has dropped from 7.1 to 6.1, but his ground ball rate has increased even more (a 40% increase in ground balls compared to a 15% decline in strikeouts).  How does his stuff differ this year from last?

Let’s take a look at a Lester start from the beginning of the season. 2008 began much like 2007 ended for Lester: painfully.  In his first 6 starts, Jon allowed 19 walks (compared to 16 Ks) and 5 home runs.   Since those 6 starts, Lester is clearly a different pitcher.  I’ll use his fourth start of the season for this analysis (assuming he was naturally rusty or fatigued from the Japan trip in his first few starts).

On 4/14/08, a day before my 30th birthday, Jon Lester pitched 4.1 forgettable innings, walking 5 and striking out 3.  Here’s the breakdown of his pitches, courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net (if this website were a woman, I would make sweet love to it for 36 hours straight):

Now, let’s have a look at his memorable start on 5/16/08 (the no-hitter):

And finally, Jon Lester’s 7.1 inning start last night, where he held a tough Texas Rangers lineup to three runs on 7 hits (i.e. a more realistic example of a typical Lester start):

The biggest difference (aside from the monumental fact that he is throwing his fastball and cut fastball for strikes more often) is in his breaking pitch.  It’s faster and tighter, almost as if it is a slurve (a cross between a fastball and a slider).  He’s certainly been locating it much better than before, when it was more of a traditional vertical breaking curveball.

As Lester’s approach continues to improve, the Red Sox should have an impressive 1-2-3 rotation down the stretch.  It’s a combination that would be ideal for a short playoff series.

Well, it happened again. Clay Buchholz, the kid who began the season as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, suffered through another rough outing last night. Even before the game, Clay was already among the worst 5 starting pitchers in the American League as ranked by WPA (just above Luis Mendoza, Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez, and Miguel Batista), and with his latest effort his ERA jumps above the illustrious 6.00 plateau.

Now, you are going to hear most folks screaming for him to be demoted to Pawtucket, where he will of course learn how to “get his head on straight”, and “build up confidence”, and “stop wearing so many necklaces” and so on, and so forth. However, with Tim Wakefield hurt and top prospect Michael Bowden likely to take his place, the Red Sox would probably replace Buchholz with one of Devern Hansack and David Pauley from AAA (assuming Bartolo Colon, who pitched 3 innings last night, is not ready to return).

Clay would have 8 regular season starts remaining if he were to stay in the Major League rotation. Would Hansack or Pauley give the Red Sox a better chance to win those 8 games? Would Clay, still the most prized young pitcher in the organization, benefit more from facing AAA hitters in 5 starts or MLB hitters in 8 starts?

Last night was an excellent example of the type of luck Clay has been having of late: few bad decisions combined with bad luck. His stuff was just fine (check out the Pitch FX data from the terrific brooksbaseball.net website), but he allowed some Texas Leaguers at the wrong time, and a few home runs from three of the most prolific home run hitters in the league.

This guy’s performance is going to improve. Or, it should, if were are to put any stock into the law of averages. His K/9 would be third in the American League had he enough innings to qualify, and his xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.03 is better than Jon Lester’s. He’s simply a much better pitcher than his current ERA dictates.

Maybe he could be sent down once Bartolo Colon is ready to return to the rotation in a couple of weeks. Maybe he doesn’t make the postseason roster (God willing). The best move for the organization, at this point, is to leave him where he is.

The Red Sox claimed outfielder Brian Giles off of waivers from the San Diego Padres yesterday, and now have roughly 24 hours to work out a trade to acquire him.

Why would they do this? The main reason is the disappointing .319 OBP in 705 plate appearances from both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp combined, and the horrifying .314 OBP from all Red Sox lead off hitters this season. Brian Giles, on the other hand, has hit .315/.404/.447 away from the Petco Park pitchers’ haven, and would be an ideal hitter to use at the top of the order for the Red Sox.

He’d be strictly a 2+ month rental, a 37-year-old hired gun for the stretch run. Giles likes playing in San Diego, and would likely try to return there after his contract expires this season. Still, adding Giles to the Sox (who currently lead the AL in OBP with .355) would transform a decent offense into a great one for the final critical weeks of the season.

Some Obstacles:

• The no-trade clause. Giles has a clause in his contract which allows him to veto a trade to Boston (among a handful of other cities), which presumably the teams and Brian’s agent are working on at the moment. Some concessions will probably have to take place, such as the Red Sox promising not to pick up his team option for 2009.
• What do the Padres want in return? Talks have been relatively quiet, but I assume this is going to cost the Sox a prospect. Not a blue chipper (names like Anderson and Bowden are likely safe), but someone who would probably crack the middle or lower half of a Top 20 list. However, if Giles turns out to be a Type A free agent, the Sox would receive an extra draft pick, which would help to cancel out the loss of a prospect.
• What roster move to make? The smart money is on Ellsbury being sent to AAA Pawtucket. It won’t be very popular with his fans or his sponsors, but it certainly does appear that he could work on a few things at McCoy Stadium, plate discipline especially. He’d likely be recalled when the rosters expand from 25 to 40 on September 1st, and will serve in a similar capacity as his role in 2007.
• And the biggest issue here: how will this work defensively? Giles cannot play first base, which would keep him from taking Mike Lowell’s place in the lineup should the Silver Fox need a 15 day vacation. Both J.D. Drew and Giles have a little experience playing center field (mostly in their younger days), and I think you would see J.D. getting most of the time there.

Let’s face facts, an outfield of Bay-Drew-Giles has the potential to be brutal defensively, especially at Fenway Park. But, upgrading from a .300 OBP to a .400 OBP in the batting order would be more than worth the occasional blooper reel moment in the outfield.

Hopefully this deal gets done.

Starting this Friday night, the Red Sox face their most challenging opponent since the tumultuous 7/31 trading deadline, as they march into Chicago’s South Side to take on Crazy Ozzie Guillen’s Pale Hose in a 4 game series.

This is the first time these teams have faced off in 2008, and the most meaningful series they’ve had in quite a while. How do these two squads match up? Let’s break it down position-by-position.

Starter, Game 1
BOS: Jon Lester
CHI: Mark Buehrle

Buehrle (a.k.a. Supreme Eater of Innings) is coming off of rough start against Kansas City. His fastball is hovering around the 84-88 MPH range right now, and he may be finally showing signs of fatigue from throwing nearly 1,800 innings before his 30th birthday. Lester has been rolling since late April, and looks to continue his outstanding season powered by his improvement in command and a revamped cut fastball.

Advantage: Boston

Starter, Game 2
BOS: Daisuke Matsuzaka
CHI: Jose Contreras

In Dice-K’s last start against Oakland, he went back to basics. We’ve all hears about his legendary pitch arsenal, and how Jason Varitek quipped that he needed all 10 fingers to call Matsuzaka. Well, 88% of his 103 pitches against the A’s were either fastballs or sliders. And it worked out wonderfully, leading to 8 strikeouts and only 2 walks. Admittedly, he might have to change his approach against the much tougher Chicago lineup.

Advantage: Boston

Starter, Game 3
BOS: Clay Buchholz
CHI: Gavin Floyd

A few days ago, I mentioned that Clay Buchholz was suffering from both bad luck and command issues. One of these can be expected to reverse over time. The other? Who knows. What I can tell you is that Gavin Floyd is not quite as good as his 2008 numbers might have you think, as the difference between his FIP and ERA is a staggering 1.32, and he has allowed 69 baserunners in his last 45 innings pitched.

Slight Advantage: Chicago

Starter, Game 4
BOS: Josh Beckett
CHI: John Danks

Danks is having a breakthrough season and is coming off of a nice start against the Tigers. Beckett is also on the wake of a decent start, and despite all of the talk-radio hand wringing he is carrying a FIP of 3.38. In his last start, 1/3 of his pitches were curveballs. If both of these guys are on, this will be an interesting matchup.

Slight Advantage: Boston

Infield
BOS: Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie
CHI: Paul Konerko, Alexei Ramirez, Juan Uribe, Orlando Cabrera

It’s tough to properly gauge this matchup without knowing Youkilis’ status after injuring his hand last night. The official word is “day-to-day”, and Sean Casey would play if Kevin can’t. Either way, Boston has the advantage at 1B over the lifeless Konerko. It’s just a question of how wide the gap is. We’ll take the team’s explanation at face value and assume Youkilis plays.

Ramirez is the Rookie of the Year candidate you haven’t heard about. He’s old for a rookie, but the alleged 26-year-old is hitting .311/.330./478 while playing solid defense at second base. Pedroia continues to be one of the best players in baseball since mid-June, hitting .399/.439/.568 in his last 199 plate appearances. Juan Uribe is filling in for Joe Crede, who is at least a week from returning to the lineup. Mike Lowell looks like he should be sitting right now, as he is visibly hobbled and has hit .171/.222/.211 in his last 81 PAs.

In the event that Lowell can’t play, you’d see Jed Lowrie move over and Alex Cora playing SS. Jed Lowrie vs Orlando Cabrera is a very interesting comparison, as it pits offense against defense. Lowrie’s gap power has New Englanders hoping they never have to see Julio Lugo start another game in Red Sox uniform, while at the same time bemoaning Theo Epstein for not resigning the slick-fielding Cabrera after 2004.

Advantage: Boston

Outfield
BOS: Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury, J.D. Drew, Coco Crisp, Brian Giles?
CHI: Carlos Quentin, Nick Swisher, Jermaine Dye, Ken Griffey Jr.
Jason Bay’s praises have been sung by many a minstrel, but Carlos Quentin is having just a phenomenal year in the American League, helping to dispel the notion that every National League player will automatically struggle after changing leagues. Both center fielders have been somewhat disappointing offensively this season. Ellsbury at least will cover a large amount of real estate in CF, but Swisher is clearly the more productive hitter (even when both players are playing to their potential). Jermaine Dye is a guy who has amazed me over the past few years. His shin bones are as frail as those from Barbaro’s rotting corpse, and yet the guy crushes the ball season after season. Despite the Red Sox outfield actually earning 1 more Win Share in total (46 vs 45), the run scoring potential of the White Sox outfield cannot be denied here.

Slight Advantage: Chicago

Catcher
BOS: Jason Varitek
CHI: A.J. Pierzynski

I’ll factor out pitch-calling abilities here, since those skills manifest themselves in the performance of the pitchers. Jason has shown a little more offensive prowess lately, hitting .262/.380/.405 in his last 50 plate appearances. Still he’s one of the last guys you’d want to see at the plate in a critical situation, whereas A.J. can handle the stick just fine.

Advantage: Chicago

Designated Hitter
BOS: David Ortiz
CHI: Jim Thome

Jim Thome at 37 years young is sporting a nifty slugging percentage of .517, which is actually his lowest in a full season in the past 15 years. Thome being on the decline is obvious and expected…but let’s now acknowledge the elephant in the corner. David Ortiz, who has the classic frame of the fearsome but short-lived extra large power hitter, is hitting .250/.327/.354 since returning from injury. His wrist issues are still affecting his swing, and he has seen his power numbers fall off the table in 2008. In their current states, Thome is the more productive hitter.

Slight Advantage: Chicago

Bullpen
BOS: Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Justin Masterson, David Aardsma, Javier Lopez, Mike Timlin
CHI: Bobby Jenks, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Boone Logan, Scott Linebrink

While Boston has a palpable advantage at the closer slot with Papelbon, Chicago’s set-up tandem of Dotel and Thornton is among the best in the game. Overall, the Red Sox bullpen has been relatively decent, with a 3.64 ERA and 7.73 K/9, but Chicago has the advantage with a 3.45 bullpen ERA and 8.3 K/9. To further the point, much of Boston’s bullpen value is tied up in Papelbon, whereas Chicago’s late-inning excellence is more evenly distributed between a group of four pitchers.

Slight Advantage: Chicago

OVERALL: A slight advantage goes to Boston, thanks mostly to a favorable matchup of starting pitchers and a clear advantage in the infield positions. A Chicago home-field advantage tilts the matchup to more even ground.

This should be a fun series, and it’s one that currently deserves more national press than a Red Sox / Yankees series would get right now.

In the last-minute blockbuster deadline deal (and I mean “last-minute” quite literally, as in 3:59 PM) sending Jason Bay to Boston, we knew we were getting a more well-rounded player to take over for Manny Ramirez in left-field.  What we did not expect was a complete exhibition of Bay’s well-roundedness in one weekend.

Let’s ignore for a moment that the Red Sox were playing a floundering Oakland skeleton crew, and take Bay’s performance at face value.   He helped the team in just about every way possible during this three-game sweep.

• Towering extra-base hits.
• Patience at the plate.
• Running down short fly balls in left-field.
• Fluid and intelligent base running.
• Accurately throwing out a potential double at second base.

This is basically we hoped to see from Jason Bay, and we saw it all happen in one weekend.  The Sox now travel to Kansas City, where Bay will look to extend the honeymoon.

Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, Manny Ramirez is the second coming of Zack Wheat, going 8 for 13 with 2 HRs in his opening weekend.  It’s good to see, and I’ll be pulling for the Manny and the Dodgers (also with Nomar Garciaparra and Derek Lowe) to make the playoffs this season.

On the wake of the most recent edition of the Lakers-Celtics NBA Finals and given the Dodgers’ personnel in LF, SS, and SP, a 2008 World Series featuring Boston and LA would be quite a story.

…assuming, of course, you are hoping to see the Red Sox in another World Series in 2008. In all of the discussed trade scenarios, there isn’t really one which would actually improve this year’s Red Sox team (on the field, at least).

Yes, the Angels made a huge statement last night, both on and off the field.  Yes, they healed their one glaring weakness with a bold mid-season trade.  So, why can’t Theo Epstein work the same magic for the Boston Red Sox?  It’s because Boston’s jigsaw puzzle isn’t as clearly defined as the one down in Anaheim.

The Angels needed a bat.  They got one.  What do the Red Sox need?  Who can really step in and make this team better?  Offensively, their one glaring weakness is at catcher, and there is exactly a 0% chance our starting catcher will lose his job this year (barring injury).  A middle reliever, I suppose?   Maybe someone who could be the third guy in the bullpen depth chart?

The trade discussions currently dominating New England revolve around Manny Ramirez, an All-Star outfielder currently hitting .301/.399/.533.  As we discussed, it’s unlikely that Manny would be moved.  And if he were moved, it’s unlikely that the trade would make the 2008 Red Sox a better baseball team, given the options currently swirling around the rumor mill.
I suppose Matt Kemp would be interesting enough. Close to a 5-tool player and a possible future superstar, he may not cover Manny’s production in ‘08, but he’s a good bet to provide long term value. However, it doesn’t look like that is gong to happen, according to the latest reports from LA.

If the Red Sox do make a deal, it’s likely going to be for someone who contribute in roughly 30 innings for the team down the stretch.  If you’re hoping for that one big blockbuster to counter the Angels acquisition of Mark Teixeira, don’t hold your breath.

In spite of the endless ocean of drama and hand wringing, Manny Ramirez continues to pound the ball. But, we’ve all seen this movie several times already, right? Late July, Manny makes a trade request or pisses someone off, the rumor mill churns at centrifuge-like speeds, and then nothing happens. Both sides shrug off the whole fiasco and get back to business.

Given his contract requirements and 10-5 status, this year’s episode of the Mid-Season Manny Circus will probably not be any different from those in the past. In the unlikely event that the team actually does trade him, can his absence in the lineup be filled internally? Most of the trade speculation has involved names such as Matt Holliday and Pat Burrell, i.e. heavy-hitting outfielders with large contracts. However, could the Sox go a different route, and receive prospects and bullpen help instead of a big-name corner OF?

As it stands, there are quite a few OF/1B types in AAA Pawtucket who have been putting on a summer-long laser show at McCoy Stadium with their bats. Two guys in particular seem very interesting. I’m referring to Brandon Moss and Jeff Bailey.

The scenario I envision would be a LH/RH platoon between the left-handed Moss and right-handed Bailey. Using the MLE calculator at www.minorleaguesplits.com, we can get a crude idea of how these guys’ split numbers translate from McCoy Stadium to Fenway Park. Keep in mind that Minor League Equivalencies are little more than an a wild educated guess, but they do help shine some perspective on minor league statistics.

Against right-handed AAA pitching, Brandon Moss has hit .297/.363/.613. His MLE is .261/.318/.475. Pedestrian numbers, but they seem fairly realistic for a guy like Moss. He’d likely hit for less power but get on base more often. Jeff Bailey has hit .318/.393/.617 against AAA left-handed pitching, which translates to a MLE of .279/.337/.524. Impressive power numbers, and they don’t seem outrageous for a guy like Bailey at Fenway Park.

The combined MLE for this proposed two-headed AAAA monstrosity? .270/.327/.522, an OPS around 850.

The expectation is that Manny would give you an OPS of around 900, but when you’re trading away a guy like him you have to expect to take at least a modest hit in overall offensive production. Guys like Moss and Bailey would be better in the field than Manny, and this type of move would save the Red Sox a lot of money (not to mention the prospects we could get in return for Manny).

My thoughts? The Sox should probably hold on to Ramirez, assuming their #1 goal is to win a second consecutive championship this fall. However, if the clubhouse and the front office tensions have become absolutely unbearable and they must deal him, some creativity could make this trade an attractive one for Boston in the long term.

Plagued by a string of sub-par relief performances, Theo Epstein has decided to look internally to solve the problem. Top prospect Justin Masterson has been sent down to AAA Pawtucket for the purpose of converting him to the bullpen in 2008.

If Masterson is to add value to the team as the late-inning set up guy envisioned by the brass, he will need to change his approach this season, against left-handed batters in particular. In 2008, Justin has been walking a large amount of the lefties he has faced (.379 OBP vs LH, 18/21 K/BB), perhaps trying his best to pitch around the tougher hitters.

There is hope, as Masterson’s career minor league walk rate (2.3 BB/9) is much lower than the alarming rate he has shown in a small sample of big league innings this season (4.7 BB/9). If he can challenge lefties a bit more with that 94 MPH sinker, he could very well become a reliable bullpen arm for the stretch run.

However, if he doesn’t find the strike zone when called upon in the late innings, he just becomes another name to add to the list of heart-attack inducing Red Sox relievers. He becomes a taxpaying citizen in the municipality of Aardsmaville.

Oh, and if anyone is worried about the implications on Masterson’s future role with the Sox, don’t be. From the ProJo article:

While Masterson’s long-term future is still as a starting pitcher, he will pitch relief the rest of the season.

The Boston Red Sox will send seven representatives to this year’s All-Star Game in The Bronx. The defending World Champions were expected to have a heavy representation in the 2008 edition of the Mid Summer Classic, but the identity of one of the players comes as a bit of a surprise, and dare I say it, an example of a glaring flaw in the system.

Your 2008 Boston All-Stars:

David Ortiz
He hasn’t had his typical Herculean season thus far, and he’s missed time with an injury. But, he’s more or less the 21st Century Cal Ripken: amicable and wildly popular with the fans, and an ambassador of the game. It’s a moot point, as he’s unable to play this year.

Kevin Youkilis
The exact opposite of David Ortiz. Not the most popular guy in the game, but he does have a 138 OPS+ to go along with Gold Glove defense. A fine choice at a surprisingly thin position.

Dustin Pedroia
A month ago today, I would have said DP is the least deserving All-Star in the bunch. Wow, have things changed. Dustin has been the hottest hitter in baseball, hitting .467/.490/.739 since Flag Day. A deserving choice for second base.

Manny Ramirez
The elephant in the corner is that Manny is in a severe slump, hitting .143/.333/.257 in his last 11 games. But, he’s uber-popular and another fan choice, and his year has been decent overall. There are more deserving outfielders, but Manny’s election is not a disgrace by any means.

J.D. Drew
Here’s the selection I was hoping for. I wasn’t really sure J.D. would make it, as his hitting has leveled off recently and there is no shortage of talented outfielders in the American League. If you’ve been reading this blog at all in the past calendar year, you’ll know that this guy has been a favorite of mine for a while. Fortunately, the stars have aligned and Drew will get his very first All-Star nomination via the Player Vote (more on this later).

Jonathan Papelbon
Despite coughing up a few seeing-eye singles in the Bronx last night, Papelbon is on a short list of elite relief pitchers in baseball, and deserves to represent his league. Another guy elected via the Player Vote.

Jason Varitek
For some background, check out Jeff’s piece on Varitek here. On a pure numbers basis ‘Tek is probably the least deserving All-Star I have ever seen in my lifetime. Varitek currently profiles as a decent defensive catcher with a sub-par throwing arm, and his offensive numbers in 2008 are atrocious. There are six or seven catchers in the American League who have had better seasons than Jason. Varitek was elected by the aforementioned Player Vote, which is a new policy used in tandem with Bud Selig’s much-maligned brainchild: awarding World Series home field advantage to the winner. The players felt that Varitek is the 2nd best catcher in the league this year behind starter Joe Mauer.

Normally, I don’t really like to criticize the evaluations of players. These guys are playing professional baseball, and I stopped playing the sport when I was 15. I’m typing this in an office where I should be doing real work, and the people who voted for Jason Varitek live and breathe the game of baseball at its highest level. I am the definition of “an untrained eye”. I just can’t reconcile the numbers with the intangibles in this case. I just can’t imagine a scenario where Varitek’s contributions to Boston in 2008 have more significant than, say, A.J. Pierzynski’s in Chicago.

Ultimately, as a Red Sox fan, I am happy for Varitek on some level. There is just an air of awkwardness surrounding his inclusion on the roster, and it’s unfortunate that there will likely be 100 blogs and articles echoing my thoughts in the last few paragraphs here.

It’s been a while since I rapped at y’all, but I had something that I’ll be sharing with you over the course of the next few months, called…

Player Skill Assessments

This part is pretty dry, so you can skip ahead if you just want to see what the results are.

Basically this whole project came into being when I was watching a Red Sox game where Julio Lugo seemed to destroy everything he touched, like some sort of reverse Midas (everything he touched turned to shit). Someone I was talking to at the time, Tom, asked if Lugo was the most useless player in the history of baseball, to which I answered in the affirmative.

The next morning, I got to thinking…is he even the most useless player on the Red Sox? I mean, his paycheck keeps him in the lineup, but if they made the same amount of money, wouldn’t he still start over Cora? How good or bad is he given that shortstops in the American League hit somewhere at the level of your really good Little League player (you know, the kid that’s shaving at age 12, and when he’s not playing SS, he’s pitching faster than any Little Leaguer should, terrifying Johnny who would rather be doing anything but playing Little League? I digress)?

So after some thought, and some reading, I figured 13 “skills”…real quick metrics that are both easy to figure out, and tell you something very straight forward. Then I broke them into three categories…at bat, strike zone management, and on the bases. These 13 skills (I’m not quoting the whole time, keep in mind that skills is just the best word I could think of) were then compared to the league average at the position he played. So, if Lugo was truly the worst player to ever be formed by carbon, he would at least show up to be solidly below average against his exact contemporaries.

As it turns out, Lugo is pretty good at some things, bad at others. Egg on my face, yo.

The thirteen skills are:
At bat:
Batting average
On base percentage
Slugging percentage
I assume you know what these are; otherwise I’d doubt you would be reading this blog.
Iso – Slugging with singles removed
BABIP – Batting average on balls in play (the assumption being that hitters have some control over this, based on being the ones that actually put the ball in play)
Contact rate – This is the percentage of plate appearances where the hitter actually puts in ball in play. Having a low contact rate in and of itself isn’t a bad thing, but the trend is very important. In this exercise, I include the league average just for context, more than something that tells us anything important about the players’ skill set. But I will include pretty graphs!

Strike Zone management
BB% - This is unintentional walk rate with hit by pitches added in. The reason that I include HBP is that there is some evidence that certain hitters tend to absorb more pitches than others, and it’s not just because the hitter is a jerk. I mean, look at Craig Biggio.
K% - Fairly straight forward
K: BB – Strikeouts per walk. This is also fairly straight forward…remember, high numbers are bad!

On the bases
R/TOB – Runs scored as a percentage of times on base. This doesn’t really recognize a repeatable skill per se. Runs are as much individual function as team, but slow and bad base runners really don’t score as much as fast/good ones. League average is important here.
Spd – Bill James’ speed score. It’s found in the 1987 Baseball Abstract, and basically puts five speed factors (stolen base%, stolen base frequency, runs, triples, and avoiding double plays) on a 10 point scale and averaged. Its name is kind of a misnomer, as it doesn’t measure speed as much as the player’s ability to make use of his speed.
SB% - Stolen base percentage
Sb.tob – Frequency of stolen base attempts. This doesn’t measure much except the percentage of times the player decides to run for the hills

This isn’t meant to do anything analytical other than to create a type of profile for the player. There are 100’s of others I might have included, but didn’t…but I’m satisfied with what I have for right now. Without further ado…

Jason Varitek and the Red Sox catchers

I mean, they totally suck, right?

Well, Kevin Cash has had a history of being just awful, but Varitek has been a little different. His history with the Red Sox is almost as long as time (he made his MLB debut with the Sox in 1997 when he was 25), so there is a certain segment of the population don’t realize there were Red Sox catchers before Varitek.

After three years of perfectly meh baseball, he broke his elbow in 2001 diving for a popup that knocked him out for the season. Unfortunately, this was right as he was starting to reach his potential as a hitter, and was one of the most productive catchers with the bat in baseball.

The next season he was still recovering, and in 2003, he broke out, having his first really good full season of his career. Hitting 9th over 50% of the time.

This is where the story becomes interesting…Jason Varitek became a masterful handler of the pitching staff! Between winning the World Series, being named captain, and hiring the PR firm of Francona and Schilling, Varitek became more of an entity…praised for his defensive prowess (winning a Gold Glove in 2005) despite not being able to throw at all (seriously, check his SB numbers…it wasn’t all Derek Lowe’s fault). A Cult of Personality was built around Varitek, to the point that in 05-07, he wasn’t hitting much, and was still called one of the most valuable catchers in baseball.

Whatever…my theory is that he does do a lot of homework, but there is no objective evidence that he makes pitchers better (which isn’t to say he doesn’t, just no one really knows if he does), and the only reason why he was given the praise he was for his defense was because of his offense (middling catchers never get praise, the great hitters, and the terrible ones do, with the later because there needs to be some reason to keep them in the lineup if they can’t hit their weight).

Sorry for the digression…but Kevin Cash’s awfulness is well documented and is easy to recognize without this exercise. Varitek is a little trickier, because his reputation is so good, and he’s getting old. A few years ago (when he signed the 4yr/$40 million contract), I found that there were just no catchers that even caught at age 36, let alone didn’t have a steep decline. I think the only ones I could really find were Bill Dickey and Carlton Fisk or something like that…either way the number wasn’t very high. Varitek is the benefit of modernized training and such, and with an iconic reputation…which is never easy to let go. It’s important to put into context what Varitek actually brings to the ball club.

At Bat

The reddish color means below league average.

Without much of a surprise, the two men managing the tools of ignorance for the Red Sox just aren’t hitting a lot. Cash probably wouldn’t be able to homer if he was playing baseball in a silo (or if Juan Cruz threw the ball 1,000 miles an hour down the middle), but at the very least, it looks like Varitek’s negative rates are on the shoulders of a low batting average.

Unfortunately, his batting average is almost 20% below were the league’s catchers (not exactly known for their hitting prowess) are hitting. What’s more troubling is his contact rate.

Now, I said earlier (in case you skipped) that a low contact rate, even compared to league, isn’t bad…it just means you walk, and strike out a lot. Where Varitek’s true offensive horror lies not in a low batting average or a low contact rate, but in a steady contact rate that hasn’t been able to stop his batting average from bottoming out.

Look at Varitek’s trend throughout his career…

His contact rate isn’t significantly lower than it ever has been…so there isn’t evidence that his bat has slowed to the point that he’s being overmatched. There is evidence that once he makes contact, the ball just isn’t going many places other than into a fielder’s mitt. His BABIP is low, which could either mean luck, or not being able to hit the ball hard enough on the line to make outs into singles.

One “good” sign is that Tek’s isolated slugging is still above average, even if it’s not as high as it was in his 03-05 peak.

Strike Zone Management

I’ve always wondered why catcher’s walk and strike out rates were so poor. I think it is because the physical demands of the position are so overwhelming that it completely mitigates their more intimate knowledge of the strike zone

Consistent with Red Sox offensive policy, both Cash and Varitek can take a walk. They also strike out a lot (which leads to their low contact rates), but it has the added benefit of making the opposing pitcher work and saving their legs for more important things like squatting. One unspoken downside to making right turns to the dugout is that it leads to more bench time, which leaves one susceptible to the hot foot, among other pranks.

On the bases

I know Varitek used to be able to run, but he doesn’t much anymore. His run rate is pretty horrifying, but it gets better when you notice that he generally hits in front of Crisp (.434 slug), Lugo (.338 slug) and Ellsbury (.385 slug). Still, his run rate is the lowest among Red Sox regulars, and if not for Alex Cora, it would be the lowest on the team. That includes Sean Casey’s glacial ass.

He’s 36 years old, and any thought of being John Waltham is long gone…there are a lot of miles on his legs, so it’s not so much “He runs well for a catcher” as much as “Hey Bill, Tek doesn’t need a wheelchair yet”. Francona has as much do to with Varitek and Cash being anchored to first when they get there as they catchers themselves do.

Outlook
Varitek has always been streaky, but he’s looked awful at the plate for the last two months. What was a foregone conclusion at the beginning of the off-season…re-signing Varitek…should now be discussed in a good amount of detail. Is it worth paying Varitek $5 million a year to hit .220 when you could pay George Kottaras $400k to hit .210?

Either way, there isn’t any better internal option, with Cash being worse with the bat or seems to be happy in his “work once a week chasing after the goddamn knuckleball” role. Kottaras and Dusty Brown aren’t nearly good enough to jettison Cash and relegate Varitek to the bench.

Truthfully, the Red Sox have no option for 2008…they have to pray that this is bottom right now, and that Varitek is gearing up for one of his .300/.410/.520 stretches and have it last for more than 7 games or so (like his last one did). The real danger of Varitek is that he’s going to hit just well enough to justify a multi-year contract, and we have to watch the death spasms of a pretty good career play out on a Red Sox team that is rebuilding the offense that has so long centered on Manny Ramirez.

As is the case with many things, I tend to become unhealthily attached to Red Sox minor league prospects. From Kevin Morton and Michael “Prime Time” Coleman, to Brian Rose and Carl Pavano, I’ve dreamed of each and every one of these guys eventually escaping that one horse mill town that is Pawtucket and etching themselves in Boston folklore, and eventually in bronze plaques in Cooperstown.

After watching Hanley Ramirez become one of the top players in the National League, my trepidation at the thought of trading away our top minor league talent has only increased. Which brings us to our current situation:

• The Red Sox currently have a chance to acquire Johan Santana, a move which will completely tip the scales of the major league talent pool in the American League.
• If the Red Sox don’t acquire Johan Santana, there is a good chance that he will become a Yankee, which makes him have a slightly higher intrinsic value to both AL East juggernaughts.
• Whoever does acquire Santana will need to lose at least one of their highly coveted prospects.

With this in mind, we must face the difficult question: should the team part with their promising CF Jacoby Ellsbury? If he is the key to this deal, my answer is a solemn “yes”.

My reasoning:

1) Jacoby’s current value is likely inflated after a tremendous performance in a small late-season sample. His SLG% was over .500, which certainly placed him on the radar screens of many GMs in the league, but let’s face it, he’s just not that kind of player in the long term. In a world where “buy low/sell high” is the law of the land, this would be an optimal time to trade him.

2) The difference in value between Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp might not be as high as we think. Granted, Jacoby will probably become a better player than Crisp (he might be the better player now). But, is the difference between the two players noticeable enough to keep Johan Santana from putting on a Red Sox uniform? I don’t think it is.

Is Jacoby Ellsbury’s inclusion necessary to consumating this trade and sending the best pitcher in baseball to Boston?

If so…let’s make a deal.

Normally, when I think of Seattle, I think of Soundgarden, salmon, and suicide. Great baseball doesn’t normally come to mind when contemplating this picturesque Pacific Northwest metropolis. Nonetheless, the Mariners had given the Boston Red Sox major problems in the past few years. This time around, however, things seemed to be evening out, as the Sox defeated Seattle 9-2, taking 2 out of 3 in Safeco field.

Josh Beckett won his 14th game on the season, helped along by a comforting, well-balanced offensive explosion. Josh is right in the thick of things for the American League Cy Young Award Race, so let’s take a look at the pool of candidates as of today.

Josh Beckett, BOS:          14-5, 3.31 ERA, 138.2 IP, 8.57 K/9, 1.88 BB/9

The rest (in alphabetical order):
Erik Bedard, BAL:            12-4, 3.09 ERA, 154.1 IP, 11.20 K/9, 2.80 BB/9
Fausto Carmona, CLE:     13-6, 3.17 ERA, 144.2 IP, 5.41 K/9, 2.61 BB/9
Kelvim Escobar, ANA:       11-6, 2.79 ERA, 145 IP, 6.89 K/9, 2.79 BB/9
Dan Haren, OAK:              13-3, 2.46 ERA, 161 IP, 7.10 K/9, 2.40 BB/9
John Lackey, ANA:           14-6, 3.11 ERA, 153.1 IP, 7.22 K/9, 2.52 BB/9
Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS: 13-8, 3.70 ERA, 151 IP, 9.06 K/9, 3.10 BB/9
CC Sabathia, CLE:            14-6, 3.56 ERA, 167 IP, 7.98 K/9, 1.24 BB/9
Johan Santana, MIN:        11-9, 2.98 ERA, 154 IP, 9.58 K/9, 2.16 BB/9
Justin Verlander, DET:      11-4, 3.49 ERA, 134 IP, 8.06 K/9, 3.29 BB/9
Chien-Ming Wang, NYY:    13-5, 3.49 ERA, 136.2 IP, 4.21 K/9, 2.24 BB/9

Please excuse my K-Mart quality formatting abilities.

Wow. Lots of pitchers having a strong season in the American League, which isn’t something we really expect in this day and age. From the above pool, if I had to handicap the race (and please note that I am factoring win-loss record, because the writers will do that), the top 5 would go like this:

1) Bedard
2) Haren
3) Beckett
4) Santana
5) Sabathia

After Daisuke Matsuzaka’s impressive win against a tough Seattle team last night, we can basically split his season into two chapters:

Chapter 1: The Adjustment Period (April and May):
72.2 IP

4.83 ERA
8.42 K/9
9.17 H/9
2.60 BB/9

Chapter 2: The Evolution (June - Present):
78.1 IP

2.64 ERA
9.65 K/9
7.47 H/9
3.45 BB/9

Notice while most of his numbers have improved (ERA, K rate, hit rate), his walk rate has actually gone up.  Perhaps Dice has decided to stray a bit more from the strike zone against MLB hitters, and rely more on deception (as opposed to brute force)?

Whatever his strategy may be, it is indeed working.

As the July 31st trading deadline looms, the talk of the region has centered around the Red Sox contemplating a deal for slugging White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye, in exchange for Wily Mo Pena and a young pitcher to be determined.  Boston is apparently searching for the consistent right-handed power bat that they thought they were getting when they shipped Bronson Arroyo off to Cincinnati for the much-maligned Wily Mo Pena.

There are a few questions we should ask ourselves before even looking at the possible trade-bait going to Chicago:

Q: Are we sure that Dye will be a significant upgrade over Wily Mo down the stretch?
A: Yes, as sure as we can be.  After starting out slow, Dye is mashing right now, hitting .295/.377/.689 since the All-Star break.  This is coming after a season where he was arguably the best hitter in the league.  Jermaine Dye is what Wily Mo hopes to become in 3 years.

Q: Would Dye be a long-term acquisition, or a 2-month rental?
A: He’d be a rental.  With a (hopefully) healthier Ortiz in 2008, and two high-priced sluggers at both corner OF positions, there just isn’t any room for the big guy.  The Red Sox would just parlay the rental into some draft day compensation in June (a system that they have been very adept at working in recent years).

Q: Well then, where would he play this year?
A: Here is the tough part.  My guess is, David Ortiz needs some time off.  I’m not sure how much time he needs, as the  Sox are naturally keeping that quiet.  But, Dye would get some time at DH, he would play RF against left-handed pitchers, and he might even play some LF to let Manny rest his legs.  I’d guess he’d start in roughly half of the remaining games on the schedule, in addition to being the first bat off the bench, and would get something like 20 plate appearances per week.

That being said, what does Chicago want? The word on the street is they were asking for one of Justin Masterson (sound familiar?) or Manny Delcarmen.  Personally, I wouldn’t do either of those deals, and according to the usual sources, neither will the Red Sox.  The key here will be whether or not Chicago GM Kenny Williams is willing to reduce his offer a bit and accept a pitcher with a slightly lower ceiling.

Stay tuned…

It’s almost a certainty: Mike Lowell will not be on this team next year.

Why, you ask? Because he will be severely overvalued in the free agent market, as he is having a terrific season at a relatively old age. The Red Sox brass will (hopefully) recognize this, let a mid-market team overpay for Lowell, and look for an alternative at the hot corner in 2008.

While the Red Sox are currently stuck in what Little Carmine of The Sopranos might describe as “a stagmire”, there has been some buzz in the background regarding the future of third base at Fenway. Most of this buzz stems from the recent media volley between Scott Boras and Yankees GM Brian Cashman, as it appears that the best player in baseball will hit the free agent market this winter.

If I were to venture a guess as to the annual salary Alex Rodriguez would command on the market in 2008, I’d say roughly $30 million, for roughly 6 years. I’d also estimate that there are ten teams in Major League Baseball that would be willing and able to pay this type of money for one player. In no particular order: the Yankees, the Mets, Boston, Anaheim, The Cubs, The White Sox, Philadelphia, Detroit, Los Angeles, and Baltimore. There could always be a surprise suitor, a Houston or a San Francisco could always throw their hat in the ring, but those aforementioned ten teams are baseball’s financial “heavy hitters”.

We can cross the Mets off of this list; they are fortunate enough to have young superstars at both 3B and SS. The Dodgers will likely try to bring prospect Andy LaRoche along at 3B and spend the big money in their outfield; I’ll remove them as well.

That leaves us with eight teams realistically in the running for this guy. In other words, we need to explore other opportunities here, because the odds of A-Rod playing for another team besides Boston are quite high (as much as I’d love to see him here).

Let’s take a look at some other post-Lowell alternatives at third base for 2008 and beyond:

Kevin Youkilis:

Pro: The only inside solution to the hole, and most certainly the cheapest option. Kevin’s bat plays much better at 3B than 1B, and his defense, while not on par with Lowell, is adequate. If Youkilis were moved across the diamond, the Sox could then concentrate on finding a heavy-hitting first baseman, which might be an easier task.

Con: He’s a notorious fast-starter and quick fader, a trait shared with his buddy, Mr. Lowell. We don’t really know how his defense and mobility will hold up as he ages, since he is already somewhat slow and immobile at 28. He doesn’t have the HR power the Sox would optimally like to see at this position.

Miguel Cabrera:

Pro: He’s a superstar, one of the best hitters in baseball and still improving, and is only 24 years old. He can also play LF (we’ll be needing one of those after 2008). Florida might not want to deal with his arbitration raises going forward, and could pull the trigger for the right package. He doesn’t become a free agent until 2010.

Con: He’s heavy, and getting bigger each year. Not a very good defender at 3B, most likely a corner OF long-term. Comes with a bit of a negative off-field reputation. Any deal would probably need to include Clay Buchholz and/or Jacoby Ellsbury, and Boston will have a difficult time parting with them, as they could both be key players as early as 2008.

Troy Glaus

Pro: Tremendous power and plate discipline. Injury woes appear to be a thing of the past. Can play SS in a pinch. Toronto’s farm system is fairly barren, and they may be willing to deal, depending on the performance of the team in the next month.

Con: Not a great defender. His “swing for the fences” style doesn’t always go over well at Fenway Park. Turning 31 next month; those knees may have more difficulty carrying his huge frame at 3B in the future.

These are just 3 options, and there are more to discuss (and more holes to plug). We’ll save those for another day, when the picture becomes clearer.

The Red Sox stand in first place in the AL East, with the best record in baseball and a 10 game lead.  Obviously, things have gone a bit better than expected for this team in the first half of the season. 

So, how have the individual contributors fared?  Let’s take a look:

Hideki Okajima - A+
Going into this season, the biggest question mark was the team’s bullpen, a mix of fading veterans and rag-tag free-agents.  Little did we know, the most effective guy out of the pen wouldn’t be Jonathan Papelbon, Brendan Donnelly, or any of the guys mentioned as “closer candidates” early in the year.  All-Star Hideki Okajima leads the team in appearances, relief innings, and has a mind-blowing 0.83 ERA (539 ERA+), 0.831 WHIP.  Certainly deserving of that final vote, and quite possibly the first-half MVP of this team.

Josh Beckett - A
When he’s able to throw his curveball, he is among the game’s most dominant pitchers.  His K/BB ratio has nearly doubled in a year, going from 2.14 last year to 4.38 in 2007.  Be watching tonight…

Dustin Pedroia - A
Not much was expected from the rookie 2B after his anemic debut in 2006, coupled with his abysmal start to this year.  The miniscule middle-infielder followed up an awful April (.544 OPS) with a torrid May (1.072 OPS), and hasn’t looked back.  Has also played stellar 2B defense, which is perhaps more surprising than his gaudy offensive numbers.

Mike Lowell - A-
He had the odd early-season glove issues, but those seem to be a thing of the past (and luckily didn’t cost the team many games).  I keep expecting this guy to fall apart, but it just has not happened.  Arguably the best hitter and most valuable player on the team thus far.  It’s hard not to like Mike.

Jonathan Papelbon - A-
He’s given up a couple of high-profile HRs this year, already matching the 2006 total of 3, and his ERA has gone from unbelievable to plain-old phenominal.  Even considering that, he’s still among the game’s elite relief arms, and probably the one guy I’d pick in the entire league if I needed 1 out.  K rate has jumped from 9.88 to 12.67 this year.

Kevin Youkilis - A-
The facial muff alone gets him at least a B.  Youk has quietly been one of the most productive hitters on the team.  Many nay-sayers believe his power spike was just an early hot streak, but keep in mind, he’s 28 - prime career year terriroty.

David Ortiz - B+
You really can’t win in this town.  After a 3 year streak in which he was the most feared hitter in baseball, personifying the word “clutch”, causing even the likes of Bill James to backtrack on what was recently considered contemporary baseball wisdom, David Ortiz has seen his power slightly decrease (IsoP has gone from .349 to .242).  This has caused a slight panic in this town, one of those ridiculous East Coast things that just makes me chuckle.  His OPS is .990.

Jason Varitek - B+
If any of you have a job which requires you to wear an arm-band with Japanese to English translations printed on it, my advice to you is to request a raise.  Tek has increased his offensive production from his off year in 2006, and has managed to keep Julian Tavarez from killing people.  

Daisuke Matsuzaka - B
He’s been wildly inconsistent, spinning a gem one night and getting lit up the next.  However, his stuff cannot be denied, as many hitters have walked away from Dice-K encounters muttering, amazed and annoyed with his vast arsenal.  Despite the inconsistency, overall, he’s been pretty much as advertized: a durable horse with an electric array of pitches, as he sits among the league leaders in strikeouts and innings pitched.

The Rest of The Bullpen - B
I’m going to group together the following guys here: Brendan Donnelly, Kyle Snyder, Javier Lopez, Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin, and Manny Delcarmen.  For my entire life, I’ve always been a “B Student” (i.e. I’m lazy and uninspired, but I try not to f*ck up too often).  The back-end of the bullpen, for the most part, has been just that.  Sure, there is some skewness here (Delcarmen and Snyder have been excellent, while Timlin and Pineiro have been frustrating), but over 143.3 innings pitched, these 6 guys have combined for an ERA of 3.54.  Nice work, but would I really want any one of them on the mound with the game on the line and inherited runners on base?

Manny Ramirez - B-
Like Ortiz, Manny has encountered a decrease in power in 2007, as his IsoP has decreased from .298 to .181.  His contact rate and walk rates remain the same, and thus he has still been a very productive hitter, although his 6.23 Runs Created Per 27 Outs is the worst of his 14 year career.  When taking into consideration the fact that he turned 35 in May, this becomes a concern.

Tim Wakefield - B-
After all these years, still one of the most underappreciated players on the team.  He’s been the 3rd best starter, and continues to provide steady innings, with an ERA+ of 102.  He’s only slightly above average (as always), but that’s more than we can say about most starting pitchers in the American League.

Coco Crisp - B-
This grade is driven primarily by his excellent work in CF as well as the basepaths this season.  Coco has quite possibly been the best fielding CF in the league in 2007, and his bat has begun to come around, as well (hitting .321 in June and July).

Curt Schilling - C+
His recent rough patch and injury means it is somewhat likely that this will be his last season Curt pitches in Boston.  While he was healthy, our blogging colleague was effective this season, including a near no-hitter in Oakland.  He threw more quality innings than predicted by many, given his age and stature.  I’m not going to write his eulogy yet, since there’s always the chance he returns healthy and wins another 6-8 games in the second half.  As we’ve seen, if anything, Curt is driven.   

Julian Tavarez - C
Probably shouldn’t even receive a C, but I might be biased.  A likeable character, at least there won’t be any complaints about his focus and desire.  Sporting a 4.97 ERA in a role that is probably ill-suited for him, but acting as a pseudo-leader and spokesman in the clubhouse.  I’d probably rather see one of our minor league guys in the rotation, but Julian has exceeded my modest expectations of him.

J.D. Drew - C
I’m not going to spend much time on him, because frankly, I’m tired of discussing him.  I’m naturally a “glass half full” person (in regards to baseball, anyway), and my natural reaction is to shrug off his mediocre first-half - which puts me in the vast minority of Boston fandom.  The only exhibit I’ll offer is his recent play: over June and July, J.D. is hitting .307 with an OBP over .400.

The Bench - D-
OK, now we get into the suck.  The one guy saving this unit from an F-minus is Alex Cora, who has hit .278/.326/.444 (although the 2B “controversy” is now deader than Anna Nicole Smith).  Aside from Alex, the trio of Erik Hinske, Wily Mo Pena, and Doug Mirabelli have combined to hit .199 with 103 Ks in 282 at-bats.  Just to put this in perspective, if the three-headed monster were to have a full season of 600 at-bats, they would strike out 219 times.

Julio Lugo - F+
The + is for baserunning.  I tried very hard to justify not giving him an F.  He seems to try very hard, he’s stolen a bunch of bases, and he’s been sort of unlucky with BABIP…but still.  If Julio’s secong half is anything like his first, he would qualify as the worst starting SS in Red Sox history, as well as one of the worst free-agent signings in baseball history.  He did have 3 hits in his last game, so maybe his confidence spiked a little going into the break?  One can only hope. 

The Red Sox got the brooms out last night and sent the Mariners packing. The 8-7 victory (I believe this series was played on aggregate score, from what I gather) was highlighted with the lack of Papelbon, the 2007 Manny Coming Out Party, and Daisuke Matsuzaka losing his control and, by extension, face.

In the post game, Terry Francona touched on all of these facets, with a good amount of candor, which was nice seeing as though these three things are extremely important to the long-term viability of this team.

The first is Manny’s slump, which seems to have been emphatically ended last night. The funny thing about it was that just how poorly Ramirez looked earlier in the game. He was completely fooled by Horacio Ramirez on a strike out, ending the first. He also ended the second with a double play on the first pitch…with five runs in and runners on the corners.

Manny got the better of his fellow Ramirez with one of those homers that looked like there was no effort in the swing, just a letter high fastball that was crushed to parts unknown. Just to keep us on edge, Julio Mateo made him look like a kid with a three pitch strike out. On a 3-2, his next at bat, he very rudely informed Chris Reitsma not to pitch him middle-in.

With Manny’s bat hopefully awakening for this season, there were two stark-negatives. In his brief Red Sox tenure, Daisuke Matsuzaka has shown a frustrating tendency to completely lose it in just one inning. In that inning, he’s just bunching his walks and hits leading to the proverbial crooked number on the board for the opposition. In his last 11 innings, he’s given up nine walks, 10 hits, and 11 runs.

Normally, I hate the ‘take out’ game, where you take out the bad and really see how good a player is, but I think with Daisuke, it’s completely interesting. If you remove the fourth inning from the second Yankees start, and the first from the second Mariners start…you have this line:
9 ip 5 hits 2 runs 3 walks.

Even if you play it back, against Toronto, he was hurt by walking three, and giving up two hits in the game-determining two run fourth. He wasn’t going to win against Seattle the first time anyway, but the game was put out of reach with a two run fifth. The only game where he really scattered runs was the first time against the Yankees. The only game where he was in complete control was against the Royals.

It’s way, way too early to deem the signing a failure, or to really even express a moment’s regret…the Red Sox are 4-2 when Daisuke is on the mound, and the Sox have scored two runs in those two games (including Felix Hernandez’s one-hitter). John Farrell will earn his money trying to figure out what is going on though.

Finally…Papelbon watched the sixth-best pitcher in the bullpen last night get a save, in a one run game. No we don’t know if Papelbon is hurt, I would bet no just based on his “I’m pissed off” glare when Romero went into the game.

My take: Tie game, Francona didn’t want to use Papelbon in that situation unless he had to, because he was cuffed up a few days ago, and ridden kind of hard so far. He has Piniero and Romero warming for the top of the ninth…neither has gotten a whole lot of work lately, and even though it’s not ideal, they need to pitch. Manny homers and Youkilis is retired on two pitches, creating a save situation and no time to sit both guys and then warm up Papelbon. Francona plays matchups, with Donnelly facing Vidro, Romero facing Ibanez, and then sticking with him for Sexson (good career numbers in an itty-bitty sample size) or going with Piniero (for R/R).

Romero got the double play, and Sexson grounding out to end the game. Papelbon lives to pitch another day.

Interesting Weekend Series against the Twins:
Wakefield vs. Carlos Silva @ 8:10 ET
Tavarez vs. Johan Santana @ 7:10 ET
Schilling vs. Sidney Ponson @ 2:10 ET

There is a popular school of thought which suggests that 1 month of baseball is just about enough of a sample to really evaluate a team.  This notion follows a textbook principle of quantitative analysis, which states that a sample size (n) of 30 is the threshold of statistical significance.  Of course, all this is just a geek excuse for me to type something along the lines of: “Dood!  Papelbon’s splitta is nasty!”.

Anyway, here is an evaluation of the team after the first month of the 2007 season.

Positional Starters:

C Jason Varitek: B-
Only hitting .239/.325/.358, but his defense has been fine, and (I know I’m going to get my balls busted for this) he’s seemed to handle the pitching staff quite well.  Adding two new pitchers to the mix who don’t speak English, one of whom has about 7 pitches in his arsenal, cannot be an easy task for a catcher to handle, but he seems to have the situation under control.  

1B Kevin Youkilis: A-
He’s done it very quietly, but “Yoooouk” has been one of the biggest offensive contributors on the team, with an OPS of .809.  Hopefully he can keep this pace up, as he had a bit of a second-half swoon in 2006.

2B Dustin Pedroia: D+
Sure, the rookie deserves some wiggle-room in his first full year.  I like to remind myself of Trot Nixon’s full-season debut, when he was hitting something like .100 in May.  However, there’s no sugarcoating it: he’s been a very poor major league hitter thus far.
On the plus side: he does draw walks, and his defense in adequate.

SS Julio Lugo: B-
He’s been a tremendous baserunner (8 SBs without being caught).  However, his offense has been simply OK, and has defense has been sub-par.  Not bad, but not really what I would want from a guy with his paycheck.  I’m still optimistic here.

3B Mike Lowell: B+
Were it not for the astonishing errors, he’d be an “A+”, as he’s been crushing the ball (.547 slugging percentage).  Expect the defense to get better, and the offense to come down to earth.

LF Manny Ramirez: D+
He’s been showing signs of heating up lately.  Although, there is a caveat here: he’s starting to get up there in age, entering his mid-thirties.  Eventually, these slumps will be more than just slumps, and we’ll start to see a legendary Hall of Fame hitter slow down for good.  Depressing, but that’s the name of the game.

CF Coco Crisp: C-
Like Manny, started off very slowly, and has been gradually heating up.  I have to be honest here: Crisp concerns me.  Whenever I watch him at the plate, I ask myself how he managed to put up the numbers he did in Cleveland.  Prove me wrong, Kovelli. 

RF J.D. Drew: A-
Hopefully his play has been enough to prove the the media and WEEI crowd that the whole “lazy” thing was complete bullshit. Started off very hot, but has cooled down of late.  Perhaps Manny Ramirez is a vampire, and is sucking away his hitting ability?  The media should look into that.

DH David Ortiz: A
Can’t ask for much more.

The Bench: A-
The biggest story here has been Alex “The Smartest Player In The League” Cora, who has played brilliantly in his brief opportunities (26 PAs), and has begun to stir a bit of a controvery at second base.  The question is: if Alex was given regular playing time, would he outplay Pedroia over the course of the season?  Eric “The Official Dewey’s House Player of 2007″ Hinske has also made the most of his playing time, hitting .294/.409/.471 while coming off the bench, and providing a versatile substitute option for manager Terry Francona.  Doug Mirabelli has also been hitting a ton, and seems to be handling Tim Wakefield just fine.  The only disappointment here was been the much maligned Wily Mo Pena, who has looked absolutely brutal while flailing at breaking balls. 

Starting Rotation:

Curt Schilling: A-
He had his doubters, and I was probably one of them.  But, here he is at 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 23/7 K/BB, looking completely healthy and hitting his spots.  In a few months, Theo Epstein and company will have a tough decision to ponder, but if Curt continues like this, the decision will be quite easy.  The only question is, what kind of cash will Curt expect?

Josh Beckett: A
5-0, 2.48 ERA.  Throwing his curve more often, and it certainly shows in the box scores.  Was knocked around a bit by the Yankees, but composed himself quite well on baseball’s biggest stage.  Has dispatched the weaker lineups with ease.  Expect a run at the CY Young award.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: B+
Has probably pitched better than his 4.36 ERA would indicate, as he has very strong peripherals (10.36 K/9, 3.80 K/BB), and his BABIP is .315.  He’s has some hiccups of control loss, and once in a while he leaves a meatball up in the zone, but his offspeed arsenal is nothing short of filthy.

Tim Wakefield: A
A 2.59 ERA, but a losing record, due to his usual uncanny lack of run support.  Anyway, the knuckler looks as good as it’s even been.

Julian Tavarez: C
The only thing keeping him from a “D” is the fact that he’s been thrust into a role that he probably should not be in.  And, he did pitch quite well against the toughest lineup in the league on Sunday.  However, it’s not a good thing when you breathe a sigh of relief when a pitcher doesn’t get clobbered.

The Bullpen

Jonathan Papelbon: A+
If I were giving out numerical grades, he would get “100″.  Currently the best closer in baseball.

Hideki Okajima: A+
As I mentioned in my last entry, he’s been the story of the team thus far.  That split-change-screwball hybrid has the best hitters in the world completely baffled.

Brendan Donnelly: A
Only 6 innings pitched, so it’s kind of silly for me to be grading him at this point, but he’s looked impressive.

Joel Pineiro: C+
Don’t be fooled by the 2.79 ERA; Joel has been shaky thus far.  He’s has more walks than K’s, and more hits than innings pitched.  Put it this way, this entire report card would look different if he were the closer.

J.C. Romero: B-
ERA of 4.91 was inflated a bit after he “took one for the team” in an early-season loss to Texas.  When used to retire left-handed hitters, he’s been quite effective.

Mike Timlin: C+
I don’t really know what to think here.  During the end of last year, and the beginning of this one, it appeared as if Timlin was no longer cut out for the occupation of major league pitcher.  However, he still flashes decent command of the fastball and slider occasionally (specifically, in his last outings).  I guess the jury is still out on Mike in 2007, but I’d prefer to see him used in low leverage situations until we get a better read on him. 

Kyle Snyder: A-
Used as an innings eater, and he’s eaten his innings adequately.

So, where do the Red Sox stand as a team?  In first f*cking place, that’s where! 
Seriously though, the team finished April with a 16-8 record, and the great news is their Pythagorean record is also 16-8 (which would indicate that this record is not much of a fluke).  As you were probably expecting, a major strength of the team has been their starting pitching, and as you weren’t expecting, their bullpen has been phenominal.  The one cause for concern is the offense, more specifically, the bottom of the order.  If Crisp, Varitek and Pedroia continue to swim near the Mendoza Line, there will be quite a bit of pressure on the rest of the bats to produce. 

Overall, the Boston Red Sox get an A- for the month.

They’ve pleased me.  And, that’s not an easy thing to do. 

Jon Lester made his first rehab start in AAA today, and pitched very well:

5 innings, 3 hits, no runs, no walks, 6 strikeouts.  84 pitches, 56 strikes.

Once he builds those pitch counts up to 100, management will have some difficult roster decisions to ponder.