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By Jimmy, 9/3/2010 9:16 am

As the major league team continues to twitch and convulse like a car-struck deer begging to be put out of its misery, it is becoming increasingly clear that our focus should turn to the future.

Now that the rosters have expanded and the minor league season is winding down, this is as good a time as any to rank our prospects.

My definition of prospect is the generally accepted rookie definition: fewer than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.  Under this criteria, most of the younger guys promoted throughout the year (Kalish, Doubront, Reddick, Bowden) still qualify at this point.  Daniel Nava is only 13 at-bats away from reaching non-rookie status, and he’ll probably hit that milestone next week, so I’ll leave him off the list.

Ryan Kalish came into 2010 as a bit of an afterthought after names like Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, and Josh Reddick, but now he has a foothold in the crowded 2011 outfield picture after hitting .294/.382/.502 between AA and AAA and holding his own in a considerable MLB stint.  His presence may even allow the Sox to consider trade possibilities that would have been unheard of prior to this year.

I’m probably higher on Jose Iglesias than others, but there’s just something I find appealing about the prospect of stellar shortstop defense coupled with decent contact hitting.  Of course, the lack of power and plate discipline is a concern, and while the former will likely never fully develop, the latter could certainly be improved upon with another year of seasoning in the minors.  All in all, 2010 was a decent showing for a guy getting his first taste of professional baseball in America, and it appears as though he’s on track to take over for Marco Scutaro in 2012.

It’s really difficult to compare Anthony Rizzo and Lars Anderson at this point.  Both seem to have All-Star first baseman potential, but Rizzo has been rising quickly, while Anderson’s stock has been stagnant after he was a tad over-hyped in his first pro season.  Both players are young for their current levels, and both will likely repeat in AA and AAA next season, respectively.  While neither player’s overall numbers are eye-popping, it should be noted that Anderson hit .286./376./486 on the road in AAA, while RIzzo has his .268/.356/.497 after the All-Star break.

Casey Kelly came into the year as the consensus top pitching prospect in the organization, but he has been overmatching a bit in Portland this season after being aggressively promoted (like Anderson and Rizzo).  Right now, his fastball sits at around 91-92 MPH, so he’ll need to add some velocity if he is to reach his full potential.  Still, Kelly has shown excellent command of multiple pitches, and was one of the youngest starting pitchers in his league this season.  He has lots of time to develop.

With Iglesias receiving a lot of hype after his impressive debut, Yamaico Navarro is probably the most underrated prospect in the organization.  It appears that a lot of folks are fogetting that Iglesias isn’t the only decent SS prospect in the system.  Navarro, still only 22-years-old, has been very impressive since being promoted to Pawtucket, and even flashed competence during a brief trial in Boston.

Anthony Ranaudo is a 2010 bonus baby with a very high potential, albeit at a high risk.  He was the best pitcher in college baseball before suffering an elbow injury, and has yet to return to form.  Theo Epstein, as he is prone to do, shelled out top dollar for the high-upside arm in hopes that his potential will one day be realized.

Perhaps no other prospect saw his stock fall further (not including injured guys like Ryan Westmoreland and Junichi Tazawa) than Josh Reddick.  However, Reddick has been hitting very well lately, raking at a .363/.385/.643 clip since the All-Star break.  He still has the potential to be a decent starting outfielder at the Major League level, and his recent play has been very encouraging.

My favorite catcher in the system is the big-hitting Yalie, Ryan Lavarnway.  A lot of folks discount him due to his defensive shortcomings, but honestly, I cannot remember the last time the Red Sox employed the services of a strong throwing defensive catcher on a regular basis (as a starter).  The most recent guy I can think of would be Tony Pena, and I’d rather not see a return to those days.  It’s time to accept that a team can win with an all-bat/no-arm catcher.

The left-handed Felix Doubront (along with his RHP counterpart, Michael Bowden) has found a role on the major league staff by lending his arm to a decimated bullpen, and he has performed somewhat impressively there.  However, I think he still may have a career in the back-end of a major league rotation in his future, barring injury.  His potential is similar to the injured Junichi Tazawa.

All in all, it seems like a fairly deep minor league system, with a lot of new talent added via a strong draft and the Manny Delcarmen trade.  We’ll keep an eye on things as the Arizona Fall League and the winter leagues kick into gear.

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By Jimmy, 7/28/2010 9:29 am

7/27/10: Red Sox 4, Angels 2

Despite being booed upon his return to Anaheim, John Lackey was able to keep his chin up (through the use of a complex system of pulleys and cables, most likely) and hold his former team to two runs over 7.1 innings of work.  Lackey gave the Angels a taste of what he provided them over his eight years in Anaheim; a high pitch count with very few mistakes.

That won’t be forgotten, for sure.

-John Lackey, on the boos he received from the Anaheim fans

Don’t worry, John.  The problem with Angels fans is that they simply care too much about baseball.  They really put their heart and soul into the historic Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim franchise, and display their passion for America’s pastime via the use of stuffed primates and large pieces of plastic.  Every night.  Right up until the 6th inning.

Notes & Takeaways:

• We’re now three days away from the trading deadline, and the Blue Jays are asking for either Casey Kelly or Jose Iglesias from the Red Sox (the organization’s best pitching prospect and best infield prospect, respectively) in exchange for reliever Scott Downs.  If the Sox were to acquire Downs, he would be the third reliever on the depth chart and would throw maybe 30 innings.  Not really worth it, in my opinion.  Then again, as a child of the late 80’s /early 90’s, I’m still a little gun shy over Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson.
• Dustin Pedroia, still two weeks from a rehab stint (at least) is having a CT scan on Friday.
• Dan Shaughnessy displays a fundamental lapse in logic when he proclaims that there is no reason for the increase in no-hitters.  It can be attributed to the increase in strikeout rates.  Simply put, it’s easier to prevent hits when you prevent contact, thereby removing the risk of lucky bloops and seeing-eye ground balls.

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By Jimmy, 7/26/2010 9:36 am

There hasn’t been a whole lot to smile about in the past few weeks.  It appears that Hideki Okajima, who has had a very nice run as one of the better left-handed set-up men in the majors these past few years, is hitting the obligatory wall that all athletes in their mid thirties eventually hit.

However, there might be a few small glimmers of hope of the horizon for the 2010 Boston Red Sox, now 5 games back in the wild card race.

Josh Beckett:

Beckett was considered to be 1A or 1B on the Red Sox rotation before the season began, but after a very dissapointing start to the season, he landed on the DL for 2 months.  Here is how he looked before and after his DL stint.

Beckett’s game looked better than before in just about every facet; velocity, command, and pitch selection.  With all 2010 interleague games now in the rear view mirror, Beckett will have no reason to get within 60 feet of the batter’s box and risk another “tweak” (until the playoffs, at least).

Victor Martinez:

Terry Francona mentioned that Martinez might be ready to play in this series against the Anaheim Angels.  This is huge news, considering the fact that the three-headed abomination of Kevin Cash, Dusty Brown, and Gustavo Molina have reached base only 14 times in 70 plate appearances, and have had zero extra base hits or RBI during that span.  The variance in offensive productivity between Martinez and these other guys is mind-blowingly vast.  It’s simply a completely different team without him in the lineup.

Jacoby Ellbury:

Take heart, drunken 25-year old women smoking butts while double-fisting Coors Light on Yawkey Way: you will soon have another reason to let your gravelly voices be heard amongst the other cheering fans.  Your enigmatic heartthrob should return in a week or two.  Jacoby Ellsbury will begin his minor league rehab assignment this week.

Dustin Pedroia

Pedroia still has at least 3 weeks to go before we see him back on the major league roster, but it appears that he is progressing nicely.

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By Jimmy, 7/13/2010 10:09 am

Timing is everything, as they say.

What better time to ask for a contract extension after putting on a mammoth exhibition of power in front of millions of viewers, after hitting .317/.467/.671 in your last 25 games?  The problem is that the Red Sox have a one-year team option on him for the 2011 season, and it is really not in their best interests to discuss a long-term deal with an overweight 35-year-old DH.

Perhaps if Bud Selig agrees to ban left-handed pitchers from the game of baseball?  You know, since Ortiz is hitting .192/.277/.301 against them.  Just ask a nun at any Catholic school: left-handed people are the spawn of Satan.  The Italian word for left is “sinistro”, not coincidentally sounding a bit like “sinister”.

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By Jimmy, 7/12/2010 9:22 am

When I heard that Minnesota Twins first baseman Justin Morneau would be missing the All-Star game due to a concussion he recently sustained, I all but assumed that Kevin Youkilis (currently with the 4^th highest OPS in the league) would be rightfully appointed to take his place.  Sadly, I underestimated the unknown variable: incompetence.

What was Joe Girardi’s logic for selecting White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko over Youkilis?  Read it and weep, or laugh.  Your choice.

It’s a hard choice to make. I could have taken him or Youkilis Konerko’s hitting slightly higher, has a couple more home runs and couple more RBIs.

In other words, Joe Girardi, the manager of the most expensive sports franchise in the United States, evaluates baseball players the same way I did when I was nine-years-old.  Luckily for the Yanks, Brian Cashman and the Steinbrenners have given Girardi a quarter-billion dollars of talent to work with (and most of that money has been very wisely-spent), but imagine if this guy were managing the Royals or the Pirates?  Yikes.

For the record:

If both guys were terrible defensively, this would be more of a coin flip.  However, that’s not the case: Youkilis is among the best defensive first basemen in the game while Konerko is on the other side of the spectrum.  There really is no other way to justify this decision other than “more home runs and RBI”.

In the end, this is a good thing for the Red Sox.  Youkilis is playing hurt as it is, and he has shown a tendency to slow down in the second half of the season.  A three day rest is definitely the best thing for him at this point.  However, if this post comes off as bitter, that’s because it is.  The fan in me wanted Youkilis to get the honor he deserves, regardless of the big picture.

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By Jimmy, 7/7/2010 9:29 am

7/6/10: Rays 3, Red Sox 2

The Sox had another massive injury scare last night when Kevin Youkilis, one of the last few regular position players not on the DL, had to leave the game with pain in his right ankle.  The team’s loss to the Rays can be directly attributed to Youkilis’ departure, as Tampa Bay was then able to intentional walk David Ortiz to pitch to Youk’s replacement (the offensively-anemic Niuman Romero).

Fortunately and surprisingly, it appears that Youkilis is fine, and should be ready to play today.

Notes & Takeaways:

• Imagine what the general reaction would be if it were J.D. Drew who left the game and allowed the Rays to ILBB their way to victory, only to shrug off the injury immediately after the game ended.
• It looks like the final AL All-Star roster spot is down to Youkilis and Yankee outfielder Nick Swisher.  Here, let’s be objective: Player A is hitting .296/.375/.509 in 332 plate appearances, and plays mediocre corner-outfield defense.  Player B is hitting .299/.416/.589 in 339 plate appearances, and plays excellent 1B defense.  Oh, I almost forgot to mention: the American league currently only has 2 first basemen on the roster.  Who would you pick?
• David Ortiz will participate in this year’s Home Run Derby.  Not something I would have predicted in April.
• Josh Beckett will make his first rehab start in Pawtucket on Sunday.
• Just a quick note on the insanity that is the Lebron James sweepstakes: I’m predicting that he ends up with the Chicago Bulls.  Assuming that the Bulls and the NY Knicks are the two finalists, Chicago has too many advantages over NY:

1. The obvious reason is that the Bulls are a much better team than the Knicks, and their future is much brighter.
2. In NY, Lebron would have to play second fiddle to Derek Jeter’s rapidly expanding forehead.  The Jets and the Giants also get much more love than the local hoops team.  In Chicago, the Bulls are much more appreciated.  Lebron is revealing himself to be a bit of an egomaniac, so these things will definitely be a factor.
3. Chicago is a nicer city than NY.  NY has the advantage of scale, but that’s about it.
4. Chicago is closer to where he grew up.

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By Jimmy, 7/2/2010 4:12 pm

Meet your new backup infielder,  Niuman Romero.

Angel Sanchez was traded for catcher Kevin Cash, which created a dire need for an infield glove on the bench.  Niuman, listed at 25 years of age, is hitting .268/.346/.351 for Pawtucket this year.

If the Red Sox win anything over 85 games in 2010, Terry Francona is a lock for AL Manager of the Year.

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By Jimmy,

Jason Varitek, apparently feeling left out, is headed for the disabled list with a broken foot (an injury similar to Dustin Pedroia’s, it would seem).  During a normal circumstance, this is one injury I think the team could shake off without much difficulty.  However, when just about every other MLB ready or near-MLB ready catcher in the organization is injured, it becomes a serious problem.

The Sox have made an emergency trade for Kevin Cash.  Yes, he of the lifetime .188/.250/.291 averages.  Cash was here in 2008 and had his “best” offensive season with the Sox, and he is a good defensive catcher, but he is not a guy you want behind the plate for the majority of your games.

Unfortunately, as of July 2nd, 2010, Kevin Cash is the starting catcher for the Boston Red Sox.

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By Jimmy, 6/18/2010 1:51 pm

A lot of the media buzz today is centered around the mystery of what type of reception Manny will receive from the fans, and what type of reception he should receive.

Here are my thoughts on the matter:

Look, I’m not saying there’s a right or wrong answer. Actually, screw that.  That’s exactly what I’m saying.

If you are at the stadium, or in your living room, or in an automobile with the radio on, and you boo Manny during his first at-bat tonight…you are wrong. It really is that simple.  Your opinion is incorrect.  This is what President Obama might call “a teaching moment”.  Grab a chair and pay attention.

You have to ask yourself, as a fan, what brings you more happiness: the events that happen on the field, or those that happen off it?  Now, if for some odd reason, your answer is the latter, then fine, go ahead and throw Duracel batteries at Manny from the bleachers tonight.  However, my guess is that 99.999% of Red Sox fans (even those primed to shower Manny with boos) are more interested in the win-loss column than anything that happens in the clubhouse.  If this is the case, then you would be dishonest to yourself by booing.  Your boos would be nothing more than a cartoon sound effect, something that you don’t really believe, but what the hell, it’s fun to feign outrage at something we know or care very little about.

I know what you’re thinking.  “It’s not black and white”.  Yes, it is black and white.  It’s as black as the ink used to print Manny’s league leading 43 HRs in the 2004 baseball almanac.  It’s as white as the gleam off of two World Series trophies.

The line is drawn.   Are you a fan, or a poseur?  Your actions tonight will determine this.

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By Jimmy, 6/16/2010 9:22 am

According to multiple sources, left-handed pitching prospect Felix Doubront (currently the #2 pitching prospect in the organization per soxprospects.com) will most likely make his MLB debut on the mound on Friday night against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Doubront is a 22-year-old who has been in the Red Sox organization ever since he was signed out of Venezuela at age 16.  He’s had consistent success throughout most of his minor league career, combining excellent control with decent (though not overpowering) stuff.  Here is what he’s done over the past 3 seasons:

Perhaps most impressive has been his ability to induce ground balls and keep the ball in the park at Pawtucket this year.

Unfortunately for “Prince Felix”, this will be a one-and-done situation, as Daisuke Matsuzaka is only expected to miss one start.

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By Jimmy, 6/14/2010 9:18 am

6/13/10: Phillies 5, Red Sox 3

Cole Hamels might be my least favorite pitcher in the National League, due mainly to the strong West Coast Douchebag aura he seems to eminate, but also due to his 3-0 record and 1.71 ERA in his three games against the Red Sox.  I didn’t stick around to hear Heidi Watney’s interviews after the game, but I’m sure that Hamels believes that he pitched “hella good” and that this is “how they roll in the six-one-nine”.

Notes & Takeaways:

Still working on the draft recap.  It will be up soon.  Also, a few words on the guy who is now a walking trivia question, Daniel Nava.

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By Jimmy, 6/9/2010 9:22 am

6/08/10: Red Sox 3, Indians 2

I’ve always thought that Tim Wakefield was slightly overrated in some circles, due to the fact that he’s a charter member of what I call the Goatee Mafia (or, if you prefer, the blue-collar team chemistry guys who play the game the way it was meant to be played).

Still, I’m going to give some well deserved props to our resident knuckleballer on the heels of his newly achieved milestone.

In an era where starting pitchers are coddled like deformed infants,  and players change teams as often as they change their socks, this is pretty goddamn impressive:

Wake tops a list containing three of the best pitchers in baseball history, and another guy who should be in the Hall of Fame.  Most of the names on the list pitched in an era where starters would routinely throw 300+ innings in a season, with the exception of the hormone-laced mule at #2.

Wakefield’s ERA+ during this his time with the Red Sox was 109, comfortably above average.  While pitching relatively well for long periods, he’s taken a lot of the onus off of the bullpen and other less durable starters during the past 14 seasons.  At the risk of sounding like a tool here, these are things that don’t really show up in a box score.  Well, they do actually show up in box scores, but not in a way that can be easily attributed to Wakefield.

Notes & Takeaways:

• While people have a visceral reaction to any news involving Scott Boras, keep in mind that his interests are pretty closely aligned with Boston’s interests in the case of Jacoby Ellsbury, seeing as though the outfielder isn’t close to becoming a free agent and will need to play well to make a decent arbitration case.
• I’ll have more on the draft in my next post.

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By Jimmy, 6/8/2010 6:50 am

After two straight years of selecting a high school/prep player with their first pick in the amateur draft, the Red Sox took a different approach in 2010, selecting polished college players with their first three picks.

Pick #1 (#20 overall): Kolbrin Vitek
Ball State University
Projected Position: 3B

Vitek, who played 2B in college, was rumored to be a possible top 10 pick before the San Diego Padres passed on him for someone else.

He’s an advanced, well-rounded player who hits well and runs well, and could conceivably be the Red Sox starting third baseman in two years.  Reports indicate that the Sox have a verbal agreement in place with Vitek, who is anxious to start playing the in the minors.

Pick #2 (#36 overall):
Bryce Brentz
Middle Tennessee State
Projected Position: RF

With Brentz, the Sox are taking a chance on someone whose stock dropped a bit due to concerns over a fractured ankle.  Two years ago, Brentz hit an other-worldly .465/.535/.930 before his injury, and managed to hit “only” .348/.440/.636 in 2009.

Brentz could bloom into a decent power hitter at the MLB level, but from what I’ve read, he’s certainly less of a sure thing than someone like Vitek.  All indications are that Brentz will also sign quickly and begin his career in the low minor leagues relatively soon.

Pick #3 (#39 overall)
Anthony Ranaudo
LSU
Projected Position: SP

The main difference between Ranaudo and those two picks above is manifested in a loathsome balding fellow wearing an expensive suit (Scott Boras).  Ranaudo is begin advised by Boras, who will likely try to push the negotiation process out until the mid August deadline, in order to squeeze as much out of the deal as possible.

With all that being said, the Sox aren’t really prone to be scared off from Boras’ demands if they feel that the player is worth the trouble, so I don’t think there’s too much to worry about in that regard.

Ranaudo is another pick who fell in the draft due to injury concerns, in addition to his signability issues.  He’s had elbow problems, but is one of the best college power pitchers available in the draft, and could be a huge steal at #39.

Keep checking in as I’ll continue to monitor the remaining rounds, and report on some notable players drafted by the Sox.

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By Jimmy, 6/7/2010 7:01 am

6/6/10: Orioles 4, Red Sox 3

It seems like the annual mid-summer pillage of Baltimore’s Inner Harbor is the birthright of every player who puts on a Red Sox uniform (and every Red Sox fan, for that matter).  While the Sox did not leave Charm City with a sweep, they did outscore the flailing Orioles 23-6 over the three-game series.

John Lackey’s 7 inning performance was slightly encouraging; it was his best start since May 5th (the one caveat being that it came against the worst team in the American League).

Notes & Takeaways:

• Manny Delcarmen is hurting a bit, and as  result he’s had two outings in a row where he opened the flood gates.
• Maybe something to keep an eye on: David Ortiz’ left hand after being hit with a pitch by the gargantuan Mark Hendrickson last night.
• Dear Pau Gasol: it’s time to shave your neck.  You are beginning to look like that flying desert creature who sold Anakin Skywalker’s mom into slavery.  (Okay, for those of you who aren’t huge dorks, here’s what I’m talking about.)

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By Jimmy, 6/2/2010 8:25 am

6/1/10: Red Sox 9, Oakland 4

Victor Martinez had one of the best games in his career, going 5 for 5 with 4 doubles, and Adrian Beltre continues to earn every penny of his contract, hitting a key 3-run HR in last night’s victory against Oakland.

The offense was needed, as John Lackey (who earned the victory) was once again shaky.  He wasn’t as wild as he had been in the past, but he was getting hit like a disobedient child from the 1950’s.

Lackey now was the 8th worst FIP among qualified starting pitchers in the American League, right below the decomposed corpse of Jake Westbrook on the list.  Not good.

Notes & Takeaways:

If you need more proof that the general public is stupid and needs to be protected from itself via stringent regulation, look no further than the All-Star voting:

There are other examples, which I’ll ridicule at some point in the near future.  We can all get a good laugh out of it, but when the powers that be decide to award the winning side with home field advantage in the World Series, it kind of becomes more than just an exhibition.  You don’t want your first baseman to be putting up Bill Hall numbers, if that much is at stake.

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By Jimmy, 5/26/2010 9:19 am

5/25/10: Red Sox 2, Rays 0

If Monday’s defeat of Wade Davis and the surging Tampa Bay Rays wasn’t enough to convince you that the 2010 Red Sox are for real, last night’s 2-0 run prevention masterpiece against staff ace James Shields may have done the trick.  The Rays,  second in all of MLB in runs scored per game coming into last night, were completely stifled by Jon Lester and the Red Sox bullpen.

Here’s some fodder for the “Varitek has superior pitch-calling powers” camp: Alex Speier tells us that the Red Sox have had 13 no-hitters or 1-hitters since 1998, tied for most in baseball, and that Jason Varitek was behind the plate for all of them.  I went back and calculated the percentage of games that Tek has started behind the plate since 1998, and by my count, it’s 65% (1293/1991).  So, this does appear to be slightly more than coincidence.  However, this is probably skewed by the fact that Varitek was often on the bench for games started by Tim Wakefield, and Wake is typically one of the weaker starters in the rotation.

Notes & Takeaways:

• Not so fast: Darnell McDonald was not DFA’d yesterday, it was Scott Atchison who ended up as the loser in the zero-sum game of roster management.  Apparently Jacoby Ellsbury isn’t quite as spry as management initially thought.
• Pete Abraham notes that the Sox have thrown out 8 of 20 would-be base stealers in the past 28 games, and the team’s increased focus on holding runners proved especially critical against Carl Crawford and the Rays last night.
• The Providence Journal tracked down Rocco Baldelli, now working in the Rays system as an instructor.  He still hopes to return to the field (shades of Gabe Kapler’s career path).

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By Jimmy, 5/5/2010 12:34 pm

In a way, being manager of the Boston Red Sox is sort of like being the head of a crime syndicate or the president of Honduras; you don’t really expect to enjoy a long tenure before being forcibly removed.  So, let’s take a minute to recognize the magnitude of Terry Francona’s accomplishment tonight: managing his 1,000th game for the most heavily scrutinized sports franchise in the country.

Only three other managers have sat in his seat for longer.  Two of them (Rough Carrigan and Joe Cronin) were player-managers for the majority of their tenure, and thus had some extra job security that modern day managers can only dream of.  The third, Pinky Higgins, was the BFF of team owner Tom Yawkey and was therefore able to manage 1,119 games despite never finishing above third place.

In all honestly, I consider it a goddamn miracle that Francona has managed the Sox for this long without bludgeoning a media member to death with a fungo bat.  I suppose he really does love the job.  It can’t be just for the money.  He makes a few million dollars a year, which is great, but when his heart finally explodes in his chest cavity like a hot dog in a microwave, a wad of $100 bills won’t really gauze the wound.

At this point, I think we can say without much hesitation that Terry Francona is the greatest manager we’ve ever had in Boston.

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By Jimmy, 5/3/2010 9:54 am

Since I started writing here 3 years ago, I’ve been relatively spoiled by covering a perennial World Series contender.  So, it’s always odd when the Red Sox go through a period of futility like this one.  Usually, it’s just a collective slump, and they eventually snap out of it.  I think this is again the case here, but I will say that this is the worst they’ve looked since I arrived here in 2007.

Yes, we should be concerned.  When Tampa Bay appears to be proving that 2009 was an aberration and the Yankees are playing like the fantasy team they are on paper, there’s just not a whole lot of wiggle room for the Red Sox.  They are now in a bit of a hole, and while there is plenty of time to crawl out of it, it’s not an ideal position when your team plays in the toughest division in baseball.

Now, there are things that have gone wrong for the Sox that will eventually go right.  On the other hand, there are some legitimate problems that will not go away very easily.  I think it might be worth it to identify each of these things, and perhaps restore some sanity to the fanbase.

Glimmers of hope:

J.D. Drew: Through the first 14 games of the season (9 of which the Red Sox lost), J.D. hit an abysmal .133/.250/.222.  He’s heated up recently, hitting .279/.353/.628 since then.  Now, I’m an unabashed Drew supporter, but even from an objective point of view, which set of numbers more closely resembles what we’d expect from him given his track record?

Jon Lester: In true Lester fashion, he started out the year poorly but has been dominant in his last two starts, striking out 18 hitters in 12.2 innings pitched.

Josh Beckett: Not really a glimmer hope in the “wow, he’s looked good” sense.  It’s more of a “wow, he can’t be this bad” statement.  While Beckett’s performances have been a tad more volatile than Lester’s, he looked OK in his most recent start.  His velocity isn’t noticeably down this year, and like Lester, he pitched poorly in April of 2009 as well.  When all is said and done, he’ll be a decent #2/#3 guy at minimum.

Victor Martinez (offensively): Similar to the Beckett situation.  Victor has been one of the most consistent hitters in the AL over the past few years, and is now hitting uncharacteristically poorly.  He’s only 31 years old, and he’ll turn it around.  When Victor starts hitting, the Red Sox will be a better team.

Infield defense: While Adrian Beltre has had some hiccups in the field, he’s also made a bunch of plays that no one else on the roster could make.  Beltre’s bat may come back down to earth a bit, but he’ll continue to flash the leather at 3B.  Marco Scutaro has been fine at shortstop (and he’s not a terrible hitter, which is a bonus), and Pedroia/Youkilis are both as advertized with the glove.    

Legitimate concerns:

David Ortiz: If a pitcher makes a mistake, Ortiz can still make them pay for it.  However, he’s clearly a shell of his former self, and not someone you want to have at the plate against a halfway-decent major league pitcher.  While a Mike Lowell platoon might be a more attractive option, the problem is that Ortiz has looked just as bad against right-handers as he has against lefties.  At this point, Jeremty Hermida is undoubtedly a better hitter than Ortiz, and the team would be better/more flexible without Ortiz on the roster. (Wow, that sounds harsh.  Unfortunately, it’s true).

Center field: When the Sox acquired Mike Cameron, they knew it came with the risks inherent in any athlete in his late-30’s.  However, Jacoby Ellsbury’s presence hedged this concern a bit, and made it easier for the team to take a chance on the aging Cameron.  Of course, Murphy’s Law went into effect and both players are now hurt, with little prognosis on when either will be healthy.  Darnell McDonald has filled in and given the fans something to smile at here and there, but the euphoria will eventually wear off once he regresses to the mean.  With Josh Reddick apparently not ready for prime time, this will be an area of weakness until Ellsbury is 100%.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: I was at a wedding on Saturday, and like a true douchebag Bostonian, I spent most of the night following the Red Sox through my cell phone.  Things appeared to turn to shit rather quickly for Daisuke after a few promising innings.  Pitch FX had his average speed at close to 92 MPH,  which is an improvement this time last year (he was below 90 in April of 2009), but it’s not really his velocity we are worried about.  While he appears to be healthier, he’ll need to prove once again that he can retire MLB hitters for string of innings without having the roof cave in on him.

The bench: Jason Varitek will eventually end his Mike Piazza impersonation, and when the smoke clears, this bench will be one of the thinnest in the American League.  Bill Hall brings nothing to the table, and the other guys on the bench are DHs.  In fact, when you really think about it, this team has 5 DHs on the roster, which is a good segway into the next area of concern…

Opposing Baserunners: The team’s inability to deter runners from advancing is unprecedented, and was highlighted by the pick-off gaffe from the late innings yesterday.  When pitchers lose focus on the hitter because our catcher has an arm like the drummer from Def Leppard, it’s a problem.  My guess is that a move will probably be made here before the trade deadline.  It will probably be an awkward move where salaries are eaten and bridges are burnt, but it will be a necessity.

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 4/29/2010 9:37 am

4/29/10: Red Sox 2, Blue Jays 0

Jon Lester (who has a career April ERA of 4.76) finally flipped the switch from “Spring Mode” to “Summer Mode”, dominating the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park with a 1 hit, 11 strikeout performance.

I went back and look at Lester’s previous gems, and decided to rank last night’s outing relative to other memorable starts (his no-hitter, for example).  Here is what I came up with.

Some might balk at the thought of the no-hitter missing out on the #1 ranking, but I decided to factor the degree of difficulty into this analysis.  Obviously, pitching against the Royals at home is quite a bit different from pitching against the Yankees in the Bronx.  For instance, if Lester had given up just one hit, the Royals start would probably fall to the bottom of this list (and he would have been immediately yanked from the game).

Anyway, the larger point here is that last night’s performance was solidly in the top 5 of Lester’s career regular season starts.

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By Jimmy, 4/28/2010 9:27 am

4/27/10: Red Sox 2, Blue Jays 1

Maybe Theo Epstein messed on up an e-mail this winter.   Instead of sending the “Run Prevention” memo to all Red Sox starting pitchers, he mistakenly sent it to only Clay Buchholz (who read the message 27 times, once on each of the laptops sitting in his basement).

Buchholz came through with one of the biggest performances of his major league career, throwing a career high 117 pitches (yes, more pitches than even his no-hitter) and preserving an exasperated bullpen while defeating the hot-hitting Toronto Blue Jays on their turf.  Clay has by far been the most effective starting pitcher on the team; he now has a 200 ERA+ on the young season, and is the only Red Sox starter above 100.

It does look as if he’s steadily improving.  Let’s take a look at how his game score (a stat used for measuring a starting pitcher’s performance in each individual outing, listed in the Baseball Reference game logs):

He’s getting there.