Category: Red Sox Analysis

2010 Breakout Candidate: Jacoby Ellsbury

By Jimmy, 2/9/2010 9:56 am

Bear with me for a moment, as I put on my “drunk 23-year-old girl from Stoughton” hat.  Yes, I’m about to genuflect at the altar of our dapper left fielder, Jacoby Ellsbury.

jacoby-ellsburyEllsbury is the type of player who tends to be over-appreciated by the more casual fans, due to things like a high-yet-empty batting average and gaudy SB totals.  This isn’t to say that he’s not important to the team.  Considering all of Jacoby’s contributions to the field last year (offense, defense, baserunning), fangraphs.com valued him at about $8.4 million dollars, compared to his actual salary of $450,000.  And that’s while factoring in his piss-poor UZR in 2009.  Ellsbury is clearly a worthy player to have in our starting lineup, especially at his current cost.

This year will be slightly different for Ellsbury, as he makes the transition from CF to LF in the wake of defensive wizard Mike Cameron’s acquisition.  I’m going to put my word on the line here and predict a career year for Ellsbury in 2010.  There are several factors leading me toward this forecast:

  1. Age: Jacoby will be 26/27 during the 2010 season.  He’s just entering his prime now; these are the years that most players tend to have their best performances.
  2. Position Change: The difference in difficulty between LF and CF in Fenway Park is larger than Christina Hendricks‘ bosom.  Ellsbury will be far less strained when milling about the tiny left field in Fenway than he would be if he were to stay in CF.  All of the weaknesses he demonstrated in the field last year (weak throwing arm, questionable instincts) will be at least partially mitigated by this position change.  He may also benefit offensively from a less demanding defensive position that will allow him to concentrate on hitting and sprinting around the basepaths.
  3. Experience: During his rookie year, it was clear that plate discipline was an area where Jacoby needed to improve.  Well, it looks like he has slowly been maturing at the plate.  In his first full season, Ellsbury’s K/BB ratio was roughly 2 to 1.  Last year, that number improved to 1.5 to 1.  It would be logical to expect yet another improvement in plate discipline from Ellsbury in 2010 after another year of MLB seasoning is under his belt.

Just to prove that I may not be completely insane here, I’ll post the Top 10 projected outfielders by Wins Above Replacement, as projected by CHONE:

Name WAR Projection
Grady Sizemore 5.0
Matt Holliday 4.8
Carlos Beltran 4.7
Ryan Braun 4.7
Curtis Granderson 4.4
Nick Markakis 4.1
Matt Kemp 4.0
Jason Bay 4.0
Jacoby Ellsbury 3.9
Justin Upton 3.8

Keep in mind, this is among all MLB outfielders, not just CF or LF.

Projecting the Fringe Bullpen Arms

By Jimmy, 2/3/2010 10:03 am

As noted here, there will likely be an interesting Spring Training battle for the final spot in the Red Sox bullpen.  Let’s take a quick look at the serious candidates and their 2010 projections (per the Marcel forecasting system):

2010 Marcel Projections


FIP K/9 BB/9 BABIP
Scott Atchison 34 RHP 4.48 7.2 3.6 0.303
Ramon A. Ramirez 27 RHP 4.63 6.98 3.6 0.275
Boof Bonser 28 RHP 4.68 7.27 3.12 0.323
Joe Nelson 35 RHP 4.77 7.59 4.06 0.289
Brian Shouse 41 LHP 4.47 6.14 3.07 0.304

While the projections do give Brian Shouse the best 2010 FIP, the system is assuming that he will continue to be used strictly as a LOOGY, which is something the Sox have not done recently.  Joe Nelson’s high walk rate hurts him, landing him with the worst predicted FIP among the group.  For some reason, Marcel really likes Scott Atchison, the enigmatic reliever coming across the Pacific after 2 seasons in the Japanese leagues.

If Boof Bonser is anything close to his former self after missing all of 2009 with a torn rotator cuff, he’s probably the favorite to land the position due to his ability to step into the rotation as an emergency starter (assuming such a move wouldn’t “disrespect” Tim Wakefield).  If Boof is toast, I’ll go out on a limb and say that the job comes down to Nelson or Atchison.  Shouse is too one dimensional, and Ramon A. Ramirez simply isn’t very good.

Is This Papelbon’s Final Year in Boston?

By Jimmy, 1/22/2010 10:28 am

The Red Sox recently saved themselves a mild headache by coming to an agreement with Jonathan Papelbon to avoid arbitration, one that would pay him roughly $9.4 million dollars in 2010.  This seems like a large sum of money to pay a 65 inning guy, but if you are to believe the valuations calculated by Fangraphs.com, Papelbon’s contributions over the past 4 years have been worth an amount in the ballpark of what he will be receiving next season.

The problem with paying Papelbon elite money this year is that he has one more year of arbitration coming in 2011.  If he has a season similar to his performances in 2006-2009 (and given the consistency he’s displayed, the smart money is on him doing it), he’s going to be commanding a crazy salary in 2011, one that might eclipse the value of his services.

Considering the fact that the Red Sox have the luxury of a cost-controlled power arm in Dan Bard, a guy who Bill James projects to strike out 70 in 54 innings while posting an ERA around 3.00 in 2010, it might make sense to deal Papelbon before the 2011 season and fill a need somewhere else on the roster.  This is especially the case if Papelbon starts to go on his “I want to make history for closers” crusade.

There will be no need to deal with that type of drivel next winter.

Offensive Projections: 2010 Starting Lineup

By Jimmy, 1/12/2010 8:00 am

Now that the lineup appears to me constructed for nest season, let’s take a quick and dirty look at their 2010 Bill James projections (courtesy of Fangraphs):

AVG OBP SLG Notes
1 Jacoby Ellsbury LF 0.302 0.360 0.420 64 SBs out of 78 attempts
2 Dustin Pedroia 2B 0.307 0.378 0.465 15 HRs
3 Kevin Youkilis 1B 0.289 0.394 0.492 23 HRs
4 Victor Martinez C 0.298 0.377 0.464 19 HRs
5 J.D. Drew RF 0.269 0.385 0.474 22 HRs
6 David Ortiz DH 0.264 0.369 0.519 29 HRs
7 Mike Cameron CF 0.237 0.328 0.428 23 HRs
8 Marco Scutaro SS 0.264 0.347 0.381 10 HRs
9 Adrian Beltre 3B 0.269 0.321 0.439 17 HRs

The one thing that might stick out at you (it certainly stuck out at me) was the lack of a 30 HR hitter.  We all know by now that the 2010 strategy isn’t really geared toward winning slow pitch softball games, but the last time a Red Sox team did not have a 30 HR hitter on their roster for at least part of the season was 1999, when Troy O’Leary led the squad with 28.

Of course, the 1999 team made it to the ALCS on the strength of their pitching, in particular Pedro Martinez, who gave us one of the best single-season performances in history (not to mention the legendary relief appearance against Cleveland in the ALDS).

If the 2010 Red Sox are to make the playoffs, so too will they rely on run prevention in lieu of offensive clout.  There will be a lot of tense (but fun) games to watch this season.

Coming up: a look at projections in defense, then pitching.

What To Expect From Bill Hall

By Jimmy, 1/8/2010 10:23 am

A lot of people tend to associate the versatile Bill Hall with his 2005-2006 run of excellence, when he was one of the best offensive shortstops in the game.  Only 3 years have passed since Hall boasted a slugging percentage of .553 over the course of a season, but it might as well be 100 years ago.

Bill Hall’s 3 year averages are: .229/.291/.391.  Just for some perspective on how bad that is, Nick Green (my favorite player of all time) hit .236/.303/.366 last season with the Red Sox.

What Hall does bring to the table is versatility.  Over his career, the 30-year-old has played every position except 1B, C, and P, and has basically been an average defender at each spot.  However, he has not played SS since 2006, and he primarily been used as a 3B or corner outfielder in recent years.  That is not to say that he couldn’t fill in at SS in a pinch, but it doesn’t seem likely that he would be the only guy on the roster who could back up Marco Scutaro at SS.

The bottom line is this: I am not convinced that Bill Hall would be able to contribute more to the big team than Tug Hulett.  Hulett will be 27 in February, hit very well in AAA last year, and most importantly, he’s actually played SS as recently as last season (along with all the other positions Hall has played, with the exception of CF, an area where the team is very adequately covered).

Here’s hoping that Hulett is given some strong consideration this spring.

Next up: we’ll take a look at the Red Sox starting lineup, as it appears to be complete.

Jacoby’s Pilrimage to Left Field

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By Jimmy, 1/6/2010 8:04 am

While Jacoby might have been a little peeved upon hearing the news that his CF role has been usurped by a 37-year-old man, it’s not exactly unprecedented for the league’s fastest man to play the least-challenging position in the outfield.  Since 1980, the league leader in stolen bases has more often than not (56% of the time, to be exact) been a left fielder.

That statistic is driven by four guys: Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman, Tim Raines (maybe headed to Cooperstown today?), and Carl Crawford.  Those are four of the most prolific base stealers of the past 30 years.  If you want to go even further back in time, Lou Brock is the gold standard for this phenomenon.  You would think that the fastest guy on the field would naturally be a fit in CF, but often times that isn’t the case.

This isn’t to say that Jacoby can’t revisit CF once Mike Cameron’s time is done here.  I’ve gone on record saying that Ellsbury is a better defender than his horrid UZR indicated last season, and I stand by that.  In fact, I’d guess that he’ll play at least 20 games in CF this season while Cameron rests and Jeremy Hermida plays in LF.

If anything, the move to LF might allow Ellsbury to concentrate on the other tasks required of his role: getting on base, and once there, advancing rapidly.

Beltre to Boston

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By Jimmy, 1/4/2010 9:47 pm

Adrian Beltre, a slick-fielding third baseman who is wildly inconsistent at the plate (sometimes excellent, sometimes terrible), will be joining the Red Sox according to multiple sources.

The deal appears to be 1 year guaranteed at $10 million, with a player option for a second year at $5 million.

My quick reaction: I’m not wild about the player, but I love the 1 year deal.  I’ll post more on this later.

Lowell/Kotchman Platoon: An Option for 2010?

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By Jimmy, 1/3/2010 10:45 pm

The good news: Mike Lowell’s offseason surgery was a success.

The bad news: the procedure did not turn Lowell into a centaur.  I mean, that’s the only way his mobility could actually improve at this stage of his life, right?  No, this was your garden variety thumb ligament surgery, and Lowell will be bringing his 36-year-old human legs and his -15 UZR to Fort Myers in March.

While Lowell was pretty bad defensively in 2009 (his UZR would have been the worst among all regular third baseman had he qualified), he did manage to prove that he could still produce at the plate, even with a bad thumb.  Against left-handed pitching, one might even categorize Lowell’s production as superb: .301/.363/.503.

It is clear that Lowell should not be playing every day, and it is also clear that his optimal usage comes against left-handed pitching.  Which brings us to another corner infielder on the Red Sox roster: first-baseman Casey Kotchman.  The left-handed Kotchman hits slightly better against right-handed pitching, and provides a good glove to go along with sound plate discipline and superb contact skills (Kotchman has only struck out 166 times in 1,871 MLB plate appearances).

There is one major concern I have with such a platoon:

How would Kevin Youkilis respond to the constant shuffling from 3B to 1B?  He seems to be versatile enough to handle such a situation, but in the past we’ve typically seen him playing each position in prolonged stretches (as opposed to switching back and forth throughout the year).  It might be asking a lot of a guy who will be counted on to carry the offense a bit in 2010.

Even considering the risk, this platoon might be a better option than free-agent signing Adrian Beltre to a long term contract to play 3B.  Especially when you consider that the Red Sox might be able to make a mega-trade for a corner infielder at the July deadline.

Odds & Ends:

  • Word on the street is that Jason Bay came to an agreement with the Mets on Christmas day, a few days before it was actually announced.  Not exactly a heartwarming holiday tale (for anyone involved).  The huge sum of money must be nice, but it has to be sort of a bummer to be exiled to a 90-loss team in Queens after your top choices walked away from the negotiating table.
  • MLBTradeRumors.com sums up the AL East moves to date.  I actually think Tampa Bay has had the best offseason out of the bunch?  Why?  They didn’t panic after underperforming last season, they filled a couple of serious holes behind the plate and in the bullpen without doing anything too drastic.  A good GM will recognize when moves do not need to be made.

Bay to the Mets: Bad For Everyone

By Jimmy, 12/30/2009 1:35 am

I think we might have stumbled upon the first transaction in baseball history that is bad for every single party involved.

Everyone directly and indirectly involved in this deal is worse off today than they were yesterday.

  • This deal is bad for the Red Sox because: they will not receive a first round draft pick from the Mets, who were terrible enough to secure a protected pick in the amateur draft next June.  Also, they will certainly miss Bay’s bat in the middle of their lineup.  Yes, it would have taken some creativity to bring back the slugger, but Bay’s presence in the lineup in lieu of Jacoby Ellsbury (for example) would have been a nice bonus.
  • This deal is bad for the Mets because: they just signed one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball to a four year contract.  In the National League, Bay will be forced to play in some of the most expansive outfields in the game into his late thirties, at which point he will be an extreme defensive liability.
  • This deal is bad for Jason Bay because: the Mets are a terrible team, and New York is (in the words of Travis Bickle) an open sewer.  If you believe the reports of Boston offering a $60 million contract, Bay took a 10% pay raise to play for the worst franchise in the game.  Hey, whatever floats your boat.

For purely sentimental reasons, I’m a little bummed out about Bay’s departure, but practically speaking, he really had no place in Boston’s plans for the future. I am convinced that Mike Cameron will produce roughly what Bay would have given us in 2010, if you include defensive contributions to the package.

Let’s raise our glasses to a guy who nearly led the team to a repeat championship in 2008, and developed quite a strong fan following in his 1.5 years in a Red Sox uniform.

What can I say?  Enjoy Citi Field, I guess?

2009 Team Payrolls: A Graphical Representation

By Jimmy, 12/22/2009 7:52 am

Pete Abraham breaks down the final 2009 MLB payroll numbers here.

However, to get a true sense of the modern MLB environment, I think it’s best to visualize things.  I’ll just plop the numbers into a graph and let the data do the talking:

payroll

The salaries appear to be normally distributed (for the most part).  Sure, there’s an outlier, but what fun would life be without outliers?

Odds & Ends:

The Mike Lowell situation is about as awkward as can be.  But, to his credit, he seems to be saying all the right things.  I think he’d be a great fit as a backup corner infielder / DH who gets 300 plate appearances while spelling three regulars, but it’s unclear whether or not Lowell would accept such a role.  I do not believe in the slightest that the 2010 Red Sox will leave Fort Myers with Mike Lowell slotted in as a stater at 3B.

Just from reading the tea leaves and hearing Terry Francona’s unabashed man love for Casey Kotchman, it appears that even if no more moves are made, Lowell could still be the odd man out.

The $170 Million Dollar Player Development Machine

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By Jimmy, 12/17/2009 7:46 am

WEEI’s Alex Speier does a nice job here breaking down the Red Sox payroll as calculated by MLB when determining the Competitive Balance Tax (a.k.a. luxury tax).

The tax threshold this year is at $170 million, and after projecting assumed arbitration raises, the Red Sox are just about on the edge of that threshold.  Any other moves (Adrian Beltre, Nick Johnson, Adrian Gonzalez, etc.) would put the Sox over the limit and cause them to pay a 22.5% luxury tax on any amount above $170 MM.

In other words, when determining the cost of someone like Adrian Beltre, go ahead and multiply his salary demands by 1.225 to determine what he will really cost the Red Sox.

Notes:

This $170 million ballpark is not really uncharted territory for the Sox, as their 2007 World Championship team boasted a CBT payroll of around $165 million.  The team’s “true” payroll, as determined by places like Cot’s contracts and the number typically referenced by fans and media, will be closer to $145-$150 million.

The following significant salaries will be coming off the books after the 2010 season:

Julio Lugo’s estranged carcass – $9 million
Mike Lowell’s soon to be estranged carcass - $9 million (assuming trade rumors are accurate)
David Ortiz’ hopefully reanimated carcass – $13 million
Josh Beckett – $10.1 million (possibly re-signed)
Victor Martinez – $7.7 million (possibly re-signed)

Odds & Ends:

It’s good to be a professional athlete.  In no other circumstance would a man who resembles a bloated pelican be able to land this:

Welcome to Boston, Mrs. Lackey!

Welcome to Boston, Krista Lackey!

Boston Targeting Adrian Gonzalez

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By Jimmy, 12/16/2009 11:16 am

I’ll lead off with this portion of Ken Rosenthal’s article, just to temper expectations:

A deal is not close, and might not happen at all, sources said.

However, multiple sources are reporting the the Red Sox are officially gunning for San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez, an elite first baseman who might be among the top three sluggers in the game.

The speculation is that any deal would definitely include Clay Buchholz, and probably Jacoby Ellsbury as well.  One or more of the top minor league prospects in Boston’s organization would also be San Diego bound.

Adrian hit .306/.402/.643 (an OPS+ of 182) on the road last year.

At this point, it’s just smoke and no fire.  If/when there’s fire, I’ll update this.

Sox Eyeing Coveted IFA

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By Jimmy,

Free agent Aroldis Champan, a 21-year-old left-hander from Cuba, showcased his arm in a workout for representatives from 15 teams yesterday.  Among the representatives was Boston’s Craig Shipley, as the Red Sox have been interested in Chapman for months.

Technically, Boston already offered Chapman a major league contract worth around $15 million dollars, but that was before he switched agents.  In accordance with the insane brand of logic used by bloodthirsty lawyers, it’s as if the offer never happened.  The Sox now start their negotiations from scratch, and will be competing with a bunch of other franchises, including the Yankees.

In the workout, Chapman’s fastball ranged from 92-97 MPH, with some secondary pitches mixed in.  This is pretty impressive, considering it was done on a random day in December.  The velocity will likely increase during actual season, once Chapman has been throwing regularly in competition.  In the past (most notably, the World Baseball Classic), Chapman has been clocked in triple digits.  He’s very raw and will need some minor league seasoning, but will instantly become one of the top prospects in baseball as soon as he chooses a team.

Odd and Ends:

  • Nothing new on the pending Lowell / Ramirez trade.  FOX’s Ken Rosenthal says the odds of the deal happening are greater than the odds of it falling through.
  • Big Halladay trade yesterday, of course.  The spurned Yankees are claiming that the Blue Jays imposed a Yankee Tax on them during trade talks.  The persecution continues!  Cue the violin music!
  • This new-look Red Sox team will not be cheap, and the luxury tax is a real possibility.  Actually, it could be the most expensive non-NY team in baseball history (they would likely still fall about $50 million short of the top MLB payroll, however).
  • Two press conferences today, one for each new guy.  It would be great if Lackey threw a tantrum and trashed the media room for no reason whatsoever.

A Monster at Fenway?

By Jimmy, 12/15/2009 10:00 am

When taking a closer look at Mike Cameron’s profile as a player, it appears that there may be several reasons why the Red Sox front office decided to acquire this 37-year-old outfielder instead of shelling out top dollar to retain Jason Bay.

First, let’s look at the basics.  Cameron is known primarily for his glove, as he has been one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball over the past 10 years.  Although he is old, he is a tremendous athlete who has yet to experience much of a regression in his performance.  Offensively and defensively, he is a typical stat-head favorite.  His fairly low batting average and high strikeout totals might become a talking point for the uninformed barstool/WEEI types who dwell on such things, but Cameron has always produced where it counts: creating runs and preventing runs.

Now, let’s dig a little deeper.

Performance against left-handed pitching:
Last season, Cameron hit .271/.420/.534 in 150 plate appearances against lefties (147 OPS+).  With Jeremy Hermida’s 103 OPS+ in 370 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, this platoon (should the Sox decide to go that route) would give you a weighted average OPS+ of 116, a performance similar to Bobby Abreu and Nelson Cruz last season.

Targeting the Green Monster:
Cameron hits a lot of long fly balls to left field, and should benefit greatly from the shallow wall.  Here is a chart of the home runs he hit in 2009:

Cameron HR chart
If you click on this link, you can see a chart of all of Cameron’s fly ball outs in Milwaukee’s Miller Park last season.  There are roughly a dozen outs that would have been doubles or home runs in Fenway.

As of right now, I think this is Boston’s best move of the offseason, in terms of value relative to dollars spent.  Cameron’s deal is for roughly $7.25 million per year over two years.  Two years seems like an appropriate amount of time to determine whether someone from the OF prospect group (Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick, Ryan Westmoreland, etc.) will take that big step forward, or if the Sox need to outsource their corner outfield duties once again.

LF Resolved: Sox Sign Mike Cameron

Like a jilted lover, I do take some satisfaction in the fact that it was the Red Sox who officially severed the Jason Bay relationship, and not vice versa (as it usually is in these situations).

The Red Sox continue the shift of their core competencies from slugging & chugging to pitching & slick fielding, singing defensive vacuum Mike Cameron to a 2-year deal.

I’ll have more on this later.

Confirmed: Lackey Deal Imminent

By Jimmy, 12/14/2009 6:49 pm

Kudos to Ed Price, whose credibility in the baseball internet world was bumped up a few notches when he first scooped this one.  All major outlets are now confirming that a physical did indeed take place, and a deal between the Red Sox and pitcher John Lackey is very close.

01I have some mixed emotions here.  Frankly, Lackey is (was?) one of my least favorite non-pinstriped players.  I seem to remember a barrage of nonsensical blather spewing from his mouth on multiple occasions during post game interviews (both wins and losses).  Of course, if he actually is a member of the Red Sox, my evaluation of Lackey will unapologetically change from “loud mouthed half-wit” to “fierce, emotional competitor”.  Let’s face it; guys like Lackey, Joey Porter, and Rasheed Wallace are fun to watch if you happen to root for their teams, and despicable if you do not.

Anyway, let’s take a look at Lackey’s on field attributes.

Lackey, 31, is a big right-hander with four pitch arsenal.  His best pitch might be the curveball, which he uses roughly in roughly 25% of his throws (only two AL pitchers used the deuce more frequently last year: Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett).  He’ll also feature a slider and a changeup to supplement his above-average fastball, which he commands with very good accuracy (11th in the AL in BB/9 innings in 2009).

Some notes:

  • Has struggled at Fenway Park throughout his career (5.75 ERA in 51.2 innings).  Of course, a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that the Red Sox have had some scary lineups between 2003 and 2009.
  • Missed time with an elbow-injury at the beginning of 2009, but seemed to get better/stronger as the year progressed, which is a positive sign for a guy who was once a lock for 200 innings per year.  If you break his season down into thirds (9 starts each) it looks like this: first 9 starts: 5.9 innings per start, 5.06 ERA, next 18 starts: 6.8 innings per start, 3.29 ERA
  • 3.12 ERA in 78 career playoff innings.
  • Only started 1 game against the Yankees last year, but did well: a 7 inning, 2 run win

The terms of the contract are being reported as $85 million over 5 years.  That’s that annual average of $17 million per year, making Lackey the highest-paid member of the team.

My take: for some reason, the AAV of $17 million seems like a very, very big number to me.  I’ve known all along that Lackey was looking for a similar deal to A.J. Burnett, but I can’t help but feel some sticker shock here.  That’s a very big commitment to make for a guy who might be (just ballparking this) the 15th best pitcher in baseball.   It’s probably a sign that the inventory of available pitchers is thin; the next-most sought after free agent starter after Lackey is old friend Joel Pineiro.

It’s a relatively safe investment, since Lackey has been consistent and durable throughout his career (for the most part), but one can’t help but wonder what effect that $85 million commitment will have on the budget next winter, when several free agents of much greater value will be available.

In any case, the Red Sox are a much better team today than they were yesterday.  A Red Sox team anchored by pitching and defense is not something I am used to, but I am very much looking forward to witnessing them in action next spring.

Coming up: thoughts on LF, now that it appears that Jason Bay is gone.

Kicking Lackey’s Tires?

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By Jimmy,

Online baseball reporter Ed Price tells us that the Red Sox will be giving John Lackey a physical.  I’m not sure what that means, exactly.  For Lackey’s sake, I hope it isn’t the same type of physical I was given when airport security pulled me into their windowless room last month.  I’m still walking funny.

I’m going to hold off before writing more on this matter, as I’m not very familiar with Ed Price, and his “tweet” is unconfirmed.  If this all comes to fruition, a more complete analysis will follow.

The Lowell Trade

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By Jimmy, 12/10/2009 10:29 am

Despite Theo Epstein’s claim that nothing would get done before he left Indianapolis this morning, the Red Sox apparently have a preliminary deal in place with the Texas Rangers.  The deal would send Mike Lowell to Texas for 25-year-old catcher / first baseman Max Ramirez.  Of course, Lowell would be driving a Brinks Truck into Dallas; the Red Sox are offering to pay most of the remaining $12 million owed to Lowell.

Who is Max Ramirez?

A top hitting prospect at one time who originally was signed out of Venezuela by the Atlanta Braves.  Ramirez tore through the minor leagues up until he hit AAA a year ago, where he has stalled a bit.  He has demonstrated good plate discipline throughout his career (.398 OPB in the minor leagues).

Defensively, there is room for improvement, but he has the potential to be a little better than Victor Martinez behind the dish.  Ramirez threw out 24% of potential base stealers in AAA last season, along with 3 out of 15 in a small sample of MLB chances.  He did play 3 MLB games at first base, but the bulk of his professional experience is behind the plate.

I’ll have more on this later.

NOTE:

Amalie Benjamin reports that the Sox front office staff have made their exodus from Indianapolis.  Honestly, who can blame them?  It’s 2009.  I have the ability to take over a small African country with my cell phone.  MLB team officials should be able to collaborate without meeting in some dilapidated midwestern cow town.

Dry Heat Kills Brain Cells

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By Jimmy, 12/8/2009 4:59 pm

Arizona.  A lovely place where water and non-cactoid flora are sparse.

And so is intelligence.

I’m sure you’ve heard the news of the three-team deal sending Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, a bunch of good young players to Detroit, and…wait for it, wait for it…Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to the Diamondbacks! If I could add music to this blog, you would be hearing a trumpet bleating “wah wah wahhhhhhhh” right now.

The way this trade nets out, Arizona essentially just traded two good, young pitchers for two different pitchers who are not as good and not as young.  As a result, the Yankees acquire a player who has a PhD in “Hitting Cheap Home Runs Over a Right Field Fence Located 150 Feet From Home Plate”-Ology.

Memo to Arizona GM Josh Byrnes (a Red Sox alum, oddly enough) thanks for taking the time to improve our competitors at virtually no cost to them.  No, really.  Thanks.

Notes From Day 1

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By Jimmy,

Boston made a few moves to bolster their AAAA pitching crop.  Not exactly awe-inspiring moves, but fringe arms who can be counted on to not embarrass themselves when needed are something every organization needs.  Anyway, here are some guys who will most likely be visiting Slater Mill between games:

  • Scott Atchison: A right-handed reliever from the Japanese leagues.  Throws strikes, low walk rate.  Has had much more success as a reliever after Hanshin converted him from a starter.  Possible Takashi Saito replacement.
  • Kason Gabbard: Former Red Sox pitcher; you’re probably familiar with him.  Lefty with decent command, had a very difficult injury-plagued season last year.  Gives off sort of a Bronson Arroyo-esque “sensitive acoustic guitar player” vibe, which ought to please the Ellsbury T-Shirt wearing contingent of Red Sox Nation.
  • Fabio Castro: Pure AAA filler.  A left-hander who doesn’t have dominant splits or a good K-ratio.  He’s roughly the same size as Dustin Pedroia, a trait you don’t see on the mound very often these days.

Also, on the Jason Bay front, Jon Heyman reports that there are three teams seriously pursuing the slugger (Sox, Angels, Mariners).  I’m thinking the Yankees might prefer Matt Holliday, a better fielder who will benefit more from the dimensions of The Toilet.

I’ll have more as it happens.

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