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By Jimmy, 11/22/2011 9:30 am

A few weeks ago I scoffed at the idea that Bobby Valentine was a serious candidate for the managerial role in Boston. Fast forward to today, and it seems as if he is not only a candidate, but the odds-on favorite to win the position.

The 62-year-old Valentine’s most-recent MLB gig was 10 years ago, when he finished in last place with an overpaid, aging Mets team (my apologies: “overpaid & aging” and “Mets team” is a redundancy). I admit to not being very familiar with Valentine’s managerial tactics. Neither is Dan Shaughnessy, it seems. However, that did not stop Danny Boy from penning an entire column on why Valentine is the right guy for the job.  Oh, sure, Dan mentions interesting tidbits, like the fact that Valentine is Ralph Branca’s son-in-law, and the fact that he has a cult following in Japan. Not much was said about Valetine’s actual track record and tendencies as a manager, though.

I think that I should be an astronaut. Why?  Well, I may or may not be a direct descendant of the Bourbon Kings of Naples, and I can belch really, rally loudly on command.  The above statement makes just about as much sense as much of Shaughnessy’s column promoting Valentine.  Here is the most memorable trait of Bobby Valentine: he once wore a Groucho Marx mask while hiding in the dugout after being ejected. It made Sportscenter.

Valentine is a pseudo-celebrity, and Dan’s one salient point is that this might help him in the leadership department. Players might be more prone to respect a guy with star power. While I can agree with that, there’s a whole lot more that should go into this type of analysis, and as of now, I haven’t read much else in the media’s argument for Valentine.

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By Jimmy, 11/15/2011 10:57 am

As the departure of bullpen ace Jonathan Papelbon leaves a glaring hole in an already-unstable bullpen, the Red Sox will now need to find an impact arm or two to fill his absence.

There are some direct way to go about doing this, such as offer a large contract to a notable MLB closer such as Ryan Madson (the guy who Papelbon is replacing in Philadelphia). However, as we’ve seen with Papelbon’s new contract, pitchers with an established reputation as a closer will demand top dollar in this free-agent market. Let’s face it, teams aren’t just paying for the numbers, they are paying for the “bulldog mentality” or whatever intangibles are supposedly inherent in a guy who can finish close baseball games on a nightly basis. The magnitude of impact that these intangibles have on performance (assuming they even exist) is quite debatable, which leads me to believe that this may be an area where a more savvy GM can save a bit of coin without sacrificing too much in terms of actual talent.

I’ve always been a strong supporter of two types of moves:

1. Acquiring a middle reliever with good peripheral numbers but little/no closer experience.
2. Attempting to convert an inconsistent starting pitcher with good “stuff” into a reliever.

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By Jimmy, 10/31/2011 9:14 am

The solid play of Marco Scutaro in 2011 made it a certainty that the Red Sox would pick up his $6 million option for 2012. The decision is made even easier by Jed Lowrie’s inability to stay healthy, as well as Jose Iglesias’ inability to hit AAA pitching.  While the latter might change, it doesn’t seem like the former ever will, and Lowrie will always be a “10th man” type of player.

Keeping in mind the fact that Scutaro celebrated his 36th birthday yesterday, the Sox will need to brace themselves for the inevitable plummit in productivity which may or may not occur next season.  The easy approach would be to use a loose RHP/LHP platoon with Lowrie, who hits left-hand pitching very well.  A more bold approach would be to kick the tires on free-agent superstar Jose Reyes, shop Lowrie, and use Scutaro as a utility infielder. This, of course, is less likely.

Other notes:

• In relation to my Reyes note above, the worst possible effect of the John Lackey / Carl Crawford contracts would be Red Sox management and ownership becoming irrationally gun shy on the free agent market. Even ignoring the strong possibility that Crawford turns things around next season, there have been many, many success stories resulting from teams taking on long-term risk in free agency. Consider where the Yankees would have been without C.C. Sabathia over the past few years, or the Cardinals without Matt Holliday. Or, the 2004-2007 Red Sox without one Manuel Aristides Ramirez.  We can only hope that Ben Cherington isn’t the reactionary type.
• The Sox begin interviewing candidates for the manager role today, starting with Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin. My early wager is on DeMarlo Hale being promoted internally, but I suppose a lot of that will depend on the scope of the political fallout (if any) from Terry Francona’s departure.

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By Jimmy, 10/25/2011 4:20 pm

Brand new Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington just now confirmed a rumor that had been floating around this morning: troubled pitcher John Lackey will indeed undergo Tommy John surgery. Recovery is typically 12-16 months, which means he will miss the entire 2012 season.

From looking at his track record over the course of the last several years, it’s pretty clear that his durability and effectiveness have both been steadily deteriorating, at a relatively young age. He has had bouts of elbow discomfort in the past, so the TJS news isn’t exactly a bombshell.

I’m not happy with his 2011 performance, but I’m also not very comfortable with the way he’s treated here.  From Bob Stanley, to Jose Offerman, to Julio Lugo, and now Lackey…the angry mob mentality displayed by most of the fan base just isn’t my cup of tea.

Here’s hoping for a year of tranquility.

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By Jimmy, 10/21/2011 12:57 pm

Pitching coach Curt Young is the latest staff member to grab the nearest unoccupied escape pod and blast his way to safety. Young, who I was very optimistic about when the Sox initially hired him last Novermber,  returns to his previous job in Oakland.

While the Red Sox clearly have their problems, the Oakland A’s have not had a winning season in 5 years.  I guess, sometimes, the low-hanging fruit tastes pretty sweet.

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By Jimmy, 10/19/2011 9:08 am

2004:  ”Oh look, they were drinking Jack Daniels and eating KFC!  LOL!  What a bunch of blue collar dirt dogs!  Look at them taking shots together. What great chemistry! This really was a team of destiny!”

2011: “Oh my God, they were drinking beer and eating Popeye’s! How DARE they disrespect the game like that!  They clearly lost all of their desire to win! I want a full investigation into this!  WHY WON’T ANYBODY THINK OF THE CHILDREN?!”

The point is: as always, it’s all about winning. Public opinion will be framed around the on-field result. Kevin Millar could have passed around a spoonful of black tar heroin during the 2004 ALCS, and the media would have found a positive spin on it.

Interestingly enough, in both 2004 and 2011, the team was one strike away from a very, very different media narrative.

Some other thoughts on BeerGate:

• I felt a little better about the situation when I heard that the Lester/Beckett/Lackey trio was drinking Bud Light. These guys weigh 250 lbs, they would have to drink a gallon of that swill to feel any sort of impairment. If anything, it quenched their thirst.
• A lot of people are more outraged over the rumor that the pitchers might have been drinking in the dugout, as opposed to the clubhouse. But really, why does it matter? The situation is the same: drinking during a game in which they were not scheduled to pitch. Is the dugout somehow more sacred than the clubhouse?  It certainly doesn’t look like it, with all of the sunflower seeds and tobacco spit on the floor.
• It appears that everyone is assuming Larry Lucchino leaked this story, but I don’t buy it. If there’s one thing Lucchino is not, it’s stupid. He wouldn’t create this sort of shitstorm over his own organization. My guess is that the source is much lower in paygrade, someone you’ve probably never heard of. A middle-management type, or perhaps even a clubhouse employee.
• The one thing that I am a tad outraged over is that it appears that (according to Jon Lester’s rundown on the situation) some of the team was treating Terry Francona like the blind substitute teacher in a 6th grade social studies class. Just walking all over him with little regard to authority. Francona has always had a laissez-faire style of leadership, but it seems as if some of the players were taking advantage of that.

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By Jimmy, 8/1/2011 9:03 am

This is why I generally don’t like hearing other fans (or media personalities) question an athlete’s injury. You never really know when it’s something like this.

For example, a relatively well-known local writer Tweeted this gem last week:

Clay Buchholz will throw off mound Monday despite feeling “stuff” in his back. It’s time for little camper Clay to buck up and pitch thru it

Now, baseball is not this particular writer’s forte, and the view from outsiders tends to be that the purveyors of our national pastime are “soft” in comparison to their mullet-headed ice skating cousins from the north. However, the statement doesn’t look any less idiotic when we are now faced with the news that Clay Buchholz has a stress fracture in his lower back, and his season is likely over.

In related news, the Sox did trade for left-handed starter Erik Bedard.  More on that (along with an updated prospect list) next.

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By Jimmy, 7/25/2011 8:22 am

7/24/11: Red Sox 12, Mariners 8

Box Score

My apologies again for yet another prolonged absence. Yes, I realize that I’ve been making that same apology quite a bit lately. Without trying to sound too much like the aggressor in a domestic dispute: I promise it won’t happen again.

I’m going to change the WPA section a bit. Instead of listing the top 5 players in total WPA for each game, I’m going to list 1) the player with the highest WPA, 2) the player with the lowest WPA, and 3) the top three plays of the game.

Highlights:

Hero of the Game: Kevin Youkilis (1 for 3, HR, BB, 2 R)
Goat of the Game: Michael Pineda (4.1 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 ER)

Top 3 Plays:
1) Youk’s 2-run HR in the 1st inning (.165 WPA)
2) Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s RBI single in the 1st inning (.131 WPA)
3) Salty throwing out Ichiro in the 5th (.083 WPA)

Quote of the Day:

 ”Days like this, the way guys are playing — it’s definitely what we signed up for.”

- Carl Crawford

Prospect Watch:

AA: OF/DH Chih-Hsien Chiang continues to tear a hole through Eastern League pitching, going 2 for 3 with 2 walks, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored yesterday. He has a 1.357 OPS in his last 10 games, and 1.043 on the year.
SS A: In the bad news department, Garin Cecchini, a high-ceiling prospect who was having an impressive pro debut in Lowell, was hit by a pitch and suffered a broken wrist.  His 2011 season is most likely done.

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By Jimmy, 7/5/2011 10:12 am

Now that the actual MLB All-Star rosters have been constructed, it’s time to do what every other baseball fan with spare times does at this point: pedantically critique the selections and offer our own unsolicited opinion on the matter.

Here are my 2011 All-Star rosters:

The names in blue are players I selected, but were left off of the real All-Star teams.  The names in grey are the final omissions from my All-Star squads, names that I had difficulty leaving out.  I did adhere to the mandatory representative rule, so every MLB team has an All-Star amongst my selections.

Now, let’s take a look at the scrubs; the guys who don’t deserve to be going to Phoenix for this year’s Mid-Summer Classic:

American League Scrubs:

1) Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees
No commentary is really needed.  It’s been said thousands of times before.  Jeter is a living, breathing example of a flawed system.  If he really did “respect the game” or whatever, he would gracefully bow out and allow a more deserving player to take in the festivities (there are about 5 other shortstops who fit this description).

2) Jose Valverde, RP, Tigers
In modern-day baseball, as a general rule, closers tend to be overrated and middle-relievers tend to be underrated.  The All-Star game is an annual reminder of this.  Jose Valverde averages 5 walks per 9 innings, and is the third-best reliever on his own team.  I could probably find at least 20 other relief pitchers in the American League who I’d rather call upon in a close situation.

3) Michael Young, DH, Rangers
I guess I just don’t understand the logic of choosing an actual DH to be the “backup DH” on your team, unless that DH happens to be the best hitter available for the spot (Young isn’t). I’d much rather have seen Konerko in this role.

National League Scrubs:

1) Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves
The Jeter selection is almost understandable, because he was chosen by idiots.  You don’t blame a dog for shitting in your yard, you just grab a plastic bag and deal with it.  This, however, is ridiculous.  An actual baseball person selected Chipper Jones to be an All-Star, in a year where he is one of the most unproductive third basemen in the league.  Yes, he’s a future Hall of Famer.  Yes, he deserves recognition for his play over the past 18 years.  But, this isn’t the proper forum for that.

2)  Jonny Venters, RP, Braves
Yeah, an ironic choice, given what I wrote about Jose Valverde.  Venters is a middle reliever who was chosen instead of the closer on his own team (Kimbrel) who is having a much more dominant season.  It looks like the selection was based upon ERA, and not much else.

3) Brian Wilson, RP, Giants
He’s a MLB poster boy, and he’ll probably go to a few more All-Star Games before his career is over, but 2011 hasn’t been a standout year for him.  There are a bunch of other more deserving pitchers.

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By Jimmy, 6/28/2011 10:01 am

The Red Sox had a day off yesterday after traveling down to lovely Philadelphia, so it’s a good time to update the prospect rankings.

Click here for the new rankings, or the link at the top of the page.

A couple of notes:

• Several players fell out of the top 25: pitcher Michael Bowden, catcher Dan Butler, and catcher Luis Exposito.
• Josh Reddick is on the list, however,  he recently passed the rookie threshold and is no longer a “prospect” by definition.  He’ll be off the list when I re-rank these again.

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By Jimmy, 6/27/2011 8:36 am

6/26/11: Red Sox 4, Pirates 2

Box Score

I’m not exactly sure how it feels to be waterboarded (although, they have been stepping up the security measures at MBTA stations, and I do have a tan, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities).  However, I imagine the sensation is similar to watching the Red Sox lose a string of games to the Padres and Pirates.

That streak was mercifully put to a stop yesterday afternoon, but it wasn’t exactly a clean victory.  Were it not for a slew of errors and miscues on the part of the Pirates, the Red Sox likely would have been swept by the team that began the year in dead last place in my power rankings.

Top 5 Heroes:

It’s another odd day in terms of WPA, as there isn’t one starting position player in the Top 5.  The only hitter there is David Ortiz, who entered the game as a pinch hitter for Andrew Miller.  It was an ugly game, which is fitting, because the prior 4 games were also hideous.  There’s something about interleague play during the regular season.  It’s just…awkward.

Buzz Kill:

J.D. Drew was hurt again, after fouling a pitch off of his face in batting practice.  Darnell McDonald entered the game and proceeded to go 0 for 4, and he’s now hitting .109/.163/.174.  Carl Crawford can’t get healthy soon enough.

Quote of the Day:

“That’s OK, I hate him, too,”

- Jonathan Papelbon, busting the balls of a young reporter who informed him that Philadelphia fans hate Terry Francona

Prospect Watch:

• AAA – Jose Iglesias, whose name hasn’t appeared in this section as much as I would have expected this year, went 3 for 4 with a double.  Catcher Ryan Lavarnway (DH’ing in this game) went 2 for 4 and is now hitting .356/.420/.667 for Pawtucket.
• Low A – Outfielder Brandon Jacobs went 2 for 5 with a HR, and first baseman Miles Head went 2 for 5 with two doubles. They are hitting .319/.392/.532 and .338/.409/.612, respectively.

Other Notes:

• It was a bittersweet victory; if the Sox had lost, I was planning to create this awesome Photoshop where a ship full of pirates (real ones) were making Red Sox players walk the plank.  The Sox probably won’t play the Pirates for another 3 years at least, so this idea will sadly be archived away.
• Apparently, I’m not supposed to hit the space bar twice after each sentence?  Well, I can’t stop doing it now.  In a related note, do you know that my high school was once disaccredited?  I was initially shocked when I heard that, but in retrospect, they somehow managed to fuck up Typing 101.  Maybe the authorities knew what they were doing in this particular case.

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By Jimmy, 6/14/2011 8:43 am

Just a few quick thoughts as I try to get back on my regular schedule after a few grueling weeks.  Yes; recaps, previews, and rankings will continue here posthaste.

• HBO’s Game of Thrones is currently the best show on television, and last Sunday’s episode left me unable to sleep.  With all the different versions of “NCIS”, “Top Chef”, and “30 Yuppies Fighting Over an Expensive Prostitute” (or whatever that show is actually called), it’s great to once again have something worth using the DVR space on.
• If the NBA Finals had gone a different way, I probably would have lost 100% of my interest in the league.  Lebron James is simply too despicable.  This guy actually made statements after the game to the effect of “It’s God’s plan for me to eventually win” and “My critics are just bitter because they’re poor and miserable”, and such.  Sure, I am poor and miserable, but correlation doesn’t equal causation, Bron!
• Before the 2010 season, I predicted a bust-out All Star campaign from Jacoby Ellsbury that included a modest increase in power to go along with his high batting average and dominance of the basepaths.  Of course, he had his collision with Adrian Beltre and that never happened.  However, I feel somewhat vindicated considering his torrid play this season.  Right now, he is one of the best lead-off hitters in the game.
• Beer recommendation: this is something that I imagine would be very difficult to get outside of the Boston area, but there is a local craft brewery called “Pretty Things” that has a few outstanding selections.  Yeah, the name is a little dainty and they’ll likely serve it to you in a tulip glass, but once you swallow your pride and have a sip or two, you’ll thank me.
• While it seems like just about everyone on the Red Sox roster is on fire, the one guy who was hitting back in April has cooled down considerably.  Jed Lowrie is hitting .226/.293/.323  since May 1st.
• J.D. Drew has also been quiet this year, but sadly, I think it’s a function of him getting old.  Drew, of course, was always injury prone, but when you hit your mid thirties, the tightness and the soreness that once would go away in a 24 hour span now lingers for quite a bit longer.  It’s not a fun thing to encounter.
• Catching prospect Ryan Lavarnway, a guy who has shown an improvement in his defense this year, has been promoted to Pawtucket.  He is certainly someone to keep an eye on.
• The one thing that will get me out of my seat quickly: seeing Sarah McLachlan appear on the television.  As soon as her Canadian face pops up on my screen, a frantic scramble for the remote ensues.  I swear, I’m like Vince Wilfork going after a loose ball; my lightning-quick hands and feet propelled by immense fury and hunger as I grab that piece of plastic and push either the “Channel Up” or “Channel Down” button (it doesn’t matter which).  I have nothing against Sarah or her music, but I just don’t feel like seeing any more footage of a one-eyed puppy, you know?
• A re-worked prospect list will be published shortly, however, I’m not going to include any of the draftees until they actually sign.

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By Jimmy, 6/6/2011 10:41 pm

So, it looks like neither Bell nor Norris will be happening, as the Sox took a college outfielder with their final pick in Day One of the draft.  Jackie Bradley was one of the best outfielders in college baseball as a sophomore last season before hurting his wrist and having a mediocre junior year.  This sort of follows the strategy the Sox employed when drafting both Anthony Ranaudo and Bryce Brentz in 2010; taking polished college players whose stock dropped due to a recent injury.

He’s a quick, athletic left-handed hitting outfielder.  The Sox have gravitated towards this type of player several times in recent drafts, and it’s worked out fairly well for them.

On that note…good night.  More during Day Two tomorrow afternoon.

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By Jimmy,

This pick took a little wind out of my sails, as I was expecting the Sox to go after one of the two ultra-expensive high school talents still on the draft board (Josh Bell or Daniel Norris).  However, I really can’t get too disappointed with a 6’6″ left-handed high schooler whose fastball touches 94 MPH.

Aside from a decent fastball, Henry Owens also throws an array of breaking balls that could prove difficult to hit for the big left-handed hitters in professional ball.
As with the others, more later.

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By Jimmy,

Here you are seeing the first example of the Red Sox attempting to out-muscle the other franchises with their wallet in this draft, as Blake Swihart is a high-priced high school catcher who is committed to play for his dream school, the University of Texas.  Swihart, aside from being the most highly-touted catcher in this draft class, is one of the best high school bats and likely would have been drafted sooner were it not for his price tag and his strong commitment to attend college.

He’s very quick and athletic for a catcher, and some actually believe that he would be better suited at 2B or 3B.  The Sox will likely try their hardest to develop him behind the plate, where he would have the most value.

More on him later.

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By Jimmy,

The Connecticut contingent of Red Sox Nation (this generally refers to any denizens of the Constitution State residing east of Interstate 91) ought to be pleased at the Sox’ first pick in the draft.  Matt Barnes is a 6’4″, 205 lb right-handed pitcher from the UConn Huskies.

Barnes supposedly has a pretty good fastball in the mid to low 90′s.  I just saw some film on his on the MLB Network, and a couple of things stood out:

1) In an interview, he referred to his fastball the “no-seam fastball”.  He then demonstrated his grip for the camera, and sure enough, both his index and middle fingers rest firmly on the leather portion of the ball, between the seams.  You don’t see that very often.

2) I’m sure I’m not the only one that balked a bit when he said “My favorite player is Joba Chamberlain“.  I mean, I get that he’s a Yankees fan given the geography, but does he really have to pick the most loathsome player in the entire league?  “My favorite player is the fat, drunken, underachieving hick on the most unlikable team in professional sports“.   Um, red flag anyone?

Seriously though, I’ll update this with a more thorough scouting report once I gather more information.  In summary, the Red Sox appeared to go with a relatively safe, projectable pick at #19, drafting a polished college-age workhorse who could slide into the back of the rotation in a few years if he stays healthy.

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By Jimmy,

Early June is usually a busy time in sports (mostly of the non-baseball variety), so the Amateur Draft will occasionally sneak up on you if your mind is on other things, as it did to me here.

This is one of those years that you will want to pay close attention, as the Red Sox have 4 picks in the first 40, and their rivals down in St. Petersburg have 10 picks (!) in the first 60.

We’ll provide coverage of the Red Sox draft picks in real-time, or close to it, depending on my work schedule.

As far as a preview goes, there are quite a bit of interesting prospects but the one that stands out to me is a high school outfielder from Texas by the name Josh Bell.  Bell is committed to attend the University of Texas and has reportedly made statements suggesting he will be very difficult to sign, but the Red Sox are known to pursue this type of prospect and have the financial resources to make just about any high school kid break their academic commitments.

Much to my chagrin, the first day of the draft is now held at night; it will be televised tonight at 6pm on the MLB Network.  It’s a practice that began last year, and I still haven’t warmed to the idea.  For decades, professional baseball has slowly been migrating from a daytime sport to a nighttime one.  The new MLB Draft is just the latest example of that.  I should probably just stop my bitching and accept it.  So, I will.

Heck in here tonight for draft coverage and commentary.

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By Jimmy, 6/2/2011 5:24 pm

Left-handed reliever Rich Hill, a Boston area native who made a triumphant return to the big leagues after injuries derailed his once-promising career as a starter, is reported to require season-ending surgery after hurting himself in yesterday’s game.

Hill was one of the most reliable relievers on the team during his time in the big leagues in 2011.  Note: he may throw like a LOOGY, but he wasn’t really used as one: Hill faced nearly as many right-handed hitters (14) as he did lefties (16).  He was highly successful against both in the small sample of innings he pitched this year: 8 IP, 3 hits, 12 Ks, no runs allowed.

Pawtucket’s Felix Doubront is the most likely replacement in the bullpen.

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By Jimmy,

Work has been a little bonkers lately, so I haven’t been posting as frequently as I’d like. This is just as well, considering that Red Sox Nation has been stricken by a tornado of failure in recent days. (See what I did there? Not using “fail” as a noun?  Note to, well, everyone on the internet under the age of 40: feel free to emulate that.  I promise, it will be cool in a hip, retro sort of way.) It’s amazing how the confidence index can plummet so quickly. We were flying high on Memorial Day, were we not?

The bad news reached a crescendo last night when a report from Japan claimed that Daisuke Matsuzaka has opted for Tommy John surgery (this has yet to be confirmed by Daisuke himself).  Apparently, the second opinion on his shoulder from Dr. Lewis Yocum didn’t paint a very bright picture for the right-hander.

If Matsuzaka does indeed go under the knife, he will be sidelined for at least twelve months, and quite possibly more.  He could return for a few starts late in the 2012 season if his rehab goes as planned, but since his contract expires after next year and his relationship with team management doesn’t seem to be ironclad at this point, the main purpose behind this decision would be to prepare him for a career with another franchise.

I’ll save the post mortem writeup on Matsuzaka’s Red Sox career until that surgery report is actually confirmed. To summarize it in one sentence as best as I can: the team spent a boatload of money on a guy who was very inconsistent and injury prone, however, it could have been much, much worse.

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By Jimmy, 5/4/2011 2:08 pm

Notes

• Bobby Abreu has faced Josh Beckett 101 times in his career, more than any other hitter in the game.  The 2nd guy on that list is Captain Intangibles (Derek Jeter) with 83 plate appearances against Beckett.
• The Sox have now won 15 out of their last 16 games against the Angels.