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By Jimmy, 4/6/2009 12:36 pm

Welcome back, your dreams were your ticket out.
Welcome back to that same old place that you laughed about.
Well the names have all changed since you hung around,
But those dreams have remained and they’re turned around.

-John Sebastian

Rotation:

Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jon Lester
Tim Wakefield
Brad Penny

The front three of the rotation rivals that of any other team.  A key to Beckett’s success will be pitch selection, as the mid-90’s fastball found a few too many bats at times in 2008.  In 2007, when he was in the running for the Cy Young, Beckett used the curveball roughly 25% of the time.  If he can once again find an equilibrium between the two pitches, he’ll be one of the best pitchers in the game.  Lester and Matsuzaka both had stellar campaigns last year, and even a modest decline would have them among the best #2 and #3 starters in the league.

Here is where it gets a little hairy.  Tim Wakefield returns to the rotation, and I have a bad feeling about it.  The difference in speed between his fastball and his knuckler are at all time lows, making the deception factor less effective for him.  While people seem to buy the myth that he can pitch until age 73, this guy still relies on his fastball to supplement the knuckleball, and once he loses the ability to throw the pitch at least 70 MPH, he could lose all effectiveness.  It could happen as soon as this year, and it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.

With Brad Penny, you just hope he can stay healthy and be league average.  He looked good in ths spring, and fortunately, so has Clay Buchholz.  Clay will be waiting in AAA Pawtucket, and should be summoned at the first sign of trouble with Penny.  The Sox also have Justin Mastretson available for spot starts (a guy I feel has the potential to be a star in the mold of Derek Lowe) and prospect Michael Bowden isn’t too far away.  The versatility is there, but the back-end of the rotation might take some lumps in the early going.

Rotation Grade: B+

Bullpen:

Jonathan Papelbon (CL)
Hideki Okajima
Ramon Ramirez
Manny Delcarmen
Takashi Saito
Javier Lopez
Justin Masterson

The additions of Ramirez and Saito turn a good bullpen into a phenomenal one.  Top to bottom, it’s probably the best bullpen in the game, and probably the best Red Sox bullpen I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.

Bullpen Grade: A

Offense:

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia
3. DH David Ortiz
4. 1B Kevin Youkilis
5. OF Jason Bay
6. 3B Mike Lowell
7. OF J.D. Drew
8. SS Jed Lowrie
9. C Jason Varitek

Bench:

C George Kottaras
OF Rocco Baldelli
SS Nick Green
1B/OF Chris Carter

The main concern here is the stroke of Lowell and Ortiz, two key hitters who are recovering from possibly debilitating injuries.  They each hit for decent power in the spring (.488 and .500 SLG% respectively), and we hope that will carry forward.  If Ellsbury manages to improve his plate discipline a bit and nudge that OBP up into the .350 territory, he’ll be on his way to becoming one of the better lead-off guys in the game.  Pedroia, Youkilis, Bay, and Drew are all among the best offensive producers at their positions, and Lowrie should be above average.  Varitek…well…we can hope that he plays less against right-handed pitchers, but we’re not really sure how George Kottaras will be in that role.  Still, one weak link in the lineup isn’t a bad deal for a team looking to slightly improve upon their run scoring capabilities.  The bench is pretty good, as Carter and Baldelli provide a threat from both sides of the plate.

Offensive Grade: A-

Fielding: The one wild card here is Jed Lowrie at shortstop.  He was excellent in a relatively small sample last year.  The rest of the infield is excellent, CF and RF are both decent, and LF is below average (but a monumental improvement over the last occupant of that position).  Varitek is essentially the same as before (good backstop, sub-par arm).

Fielding Grade: B+

Overall Grade: 85.6 (A-)

Yeah, as it turns out, the Red Sox score the highest in my rankings.  Am I showing bias here?  I think (hope) that I properly discounted the rotation for their potential flaws in my “B+” grade, and the lineup is a Taylor Teagarden type away from being a solid “A”.  I don’t see many flaws in the bullpen, and defensively the team appears to be among the best in the game.  Am I optimistic?  We shall see, over the next few months.

Update: today’s game is rained out, and will be played at 4:00.  It’s not really raining here in Boston, but I suppose they wanted nicer weather for whatever dog & pony show they have planned at Fenway.

Next up: Opening Day Power Rankings (based on the scores I assigned here).

Comments (1)

By Jimmy,

When C.C. Sabathia lumbers onto that unfortunate pitcher’s mound in Baltimore this afternoon, he carries with him the weight of New York’s collective angst.  After failing to make the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, the franchise went into full assault mode and stockpiled some expensive weapons of mass destruction.  If this team fails to wash off the stink of third place after the Steinbrenner brothers effectively flicked their middle fingers at the world economy, the back-page tabloids will not hold back. Nor should they.

Rotation:
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. A.J. Burnett
4. Andy Pettitte
5. Joba Chamberlain

Factoring out injury risk, it could be the best rotation in baseball.  Even in the likely event that someone like A.J. Burnett goes down, you have promising starter Phil Hughes waiting to pick up the slack.  I’m not relishing the idea of watching the Sox face CC-Joba-Burnett in a three game series.  Health concerns are present for a couple of these guys, but that’s really the only shortcoming here.

Rotation Grade: A-

Bullpen:
Mariano Rivera (CL)
Damaso Marte
Brian Bruney
Phil Coke
Edwar Ramirez
Jose Veras
Jonathan Albaladejo

Rivera’s a freak of nature who had his career best ERA+ at age 38, so we’ll assume that the 9th inning is signed, sealed, and delivered once again.  Ramirez and Veras are both promising arms, and I’m betting they are eventually assigned to become Rivera’s setup men.  The guys actually setting up Mariano (Bruney and Marte) are questionable. Bruney, while overpowering, sometimes has serious trouble finding the plate, and Marte has not proven to be effective since returning from injury.  However, there’s enough talent in the pen to hide the failures of 1 or 2 guys.

Bullpen: B+

Offense:
1. SS Derek Jeter
2. LF Johnny Damon
3. 1B Mark Teixeira
4. DH Hideki Matsui
5. C Jorge Posada
6. 2B Robinson Cano
7. RF Xavier Nady
8. 3B Cody Ransom (A-Rod in late May)
9. CF Brett Gardner

Bench:
C Jose Molina
OF/1B Nick Swisher
OF Melky Cabrera
INF Angel Berroa

Things certainly look a lot different without you-know-who in the lineup.  The key to the season is probably Cano, a guy who can either hit like Ryne Sandberg or Scott Fletcher.  Teixeira should be a monster, especially since the new stadium has the same Little League right field wall as the old one.  Posada, Jeter, Damon, and Matsui are all guys who are in the midst of declining career trajectories, and while they should all be decent offensive producers, the wheels could fall off and major injuries could occur at any time (especially in the cases of Posada and Matsui).  I’ll grade them assuming A-Rod is back in late May as expected, and is suffering no ill effects from his injury (or whatever else he has going on in his life).

Offensive grade: B

Fielding:  Minor league data is inconclusive on “Poor Man’s Ellsbury” out in CF, but we do know he’s fast, so we’ll assume that he can track down a good amount of balls out there.  Cody Ransom is a SS by trade, and thus he’ll probably make a decent 3B until A-Rod returns (and A-Rod is about average these days).  Teixeria is a great fielder at 1B. Cano can be good, but the data and the anecdotal evidence suggests that he has more of a negative defensive impact than a positive one.  The corner outfielders are below average, and the two most important positions on the field (C and SS) are extremely weak.

Fielding Grade: C+

Overall: 78.1 (B+)

Red Sox next…hopefully right around game time.

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By Jimmy,

I’m going to try my hardest to objectively rate these next two teams while ignoring the raging inferno of hatred in my heart.

Tampa Bay Rays

Rotation:

1. James Shields
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Matt Garza
4. Andy Sonnanstine
5. David Price

Price was actually sent down to AAA, but I have a feeling he’ll get “The Longoria Treatment”.  By that, I don’t mean he’ll wed a French basketball player, rather, his stay in the minors will be very short.  I’m not the biggest Sonnanstine fan, but he’s somehow been able to get it done in Tampa.  The other three guys all range from good to excellent.  Price, from what I’ve seen from him last September/October, might be the best of the bunch. A sure fire ace, if healthy.

Rotation Grade: A-

Bullpen:

Troy Percival (CL)
Dan Wheeler
Grant Balfour
J.P. Howell
Brian Shouse
Joe Nelson
Jeff Niemann

Neither Percival nor Wheeler really impress me with their stuff, but they both seem to rise to the occasion in late inning situations. The rest of the pen, however, is pretty good.  Balfour, Howell, and Nelson are all guys who could be closer candidates on other teams, and Niemann is a solid swingman with high potential.

Bullpen grade: B+

Offense:

1. CF B.J. Upton
2. LF Carl Crawford
3. 3B Evan Longoria
4. 1B Carlos Pena
5. DH Pat Burrell
6. RF Gabe Gross
7. C Dioner Navarro
8. 2B Akinori Iwamura
9. SS Jason Bartlett

Bench:
C Shawn Riggans
INF Ben Zobrist
INF Willy Aybar
OF Gabe Kapler

Top of the order should be fine, assuming Upton manages to regain some of the power stroke he alarmingly lost in 2008.  The bottom of the order will be a weakness, as will their paper-thin bench (hello Gabe Kapler).

Offensive Grade: B

Fielding: Very strong.  Upton was a terrible infielder when he first arrived on the scene, but he played quite well in CF last year.  The infield and outfield are both terrific in Tampa Bay.

Fielding Grade: A

Overall Grade: 79.8 (B+)

Later this morning: NY

This afternoon: The Sox.

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By Jimmy, 4/5/2009 11:52 am

We’re rounding out the remaining team grades, with the exception of the “Big Three” in the AL East.

Atlanta Braves

I wasn’t the biggest fan of the Derek Lowe acquisition, and I haven’t been blown away by what I’ve read about Kenshin Kawakami, but when it comes to building a starting rotation, the Braves management regime deserves the benefit of the doubt.  If future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones stays healthy, he’ll be a run-producing machine and will adequately compensate for the shortfalls of guys like Jeff Francoeur and Garret Anderson.

Rotation: B
Bullpen: C
Offense: B-
Fielding: C+
OVERALL: 66.8 (B-)

Chicago Cubs

The only weakness in Chicago’s lineup is the 9th spot (the pitcher).  With Rich Harden apparently healthy, the window for breaking that 100+ year drought is wide open.

Rotation: A-
Bullpen: B-
Offense: A-
Fielding: C-
OVERALL: 82 (B+)

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The only significant changes to the 2008 team were essentially swapping Mark Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez for Bobby Abreu and Brian Fuentes. So, the Angels head into the season a little weaker than last year.  Fortunately, they are in a weak division.

Rotation: B
Bullpen: A-
Offense: C+
Fielding: B-
OVERALL: 68.6 (B-)

New York Mets

Last season, the Mets were cursed with a terrible bullpen, but they certainly remedied that over the winter.  I’m not on board with the amount of money spent on “K-Rod”, but he and J.J. Putz provide an immediate improvement over their one true weakness from the previous year.  At the very least, the move will help them immensely in the short term.

Rotation: B-
Bullpen: A-
Offense: B+
Fielding: B+
OVERALL: 77.2 (B+/B)

Pittsburgh Pirates

It’s good to see Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen both with regular MLB roles.  Well, good for me.  Bad for Pirates fans.

Rotation: C-
Bullpen: D+
Offense: C-
Fielding: C+
OVERALL: 46.6 (C-)

St. Louis Cardinals

All eyes will be on former ace Chris Carpenter, as he is apparently healthy heading into the season.  Without him, the rotation goes from decent to questionable.

Rotation: B-
Bullpen: B
Offense: A-
Fielding: C-
OVERALL: 77.1 (B+/B)

Texas Rangers

One of the benefits of growing up in Johnston, Rhode Island: I can spell “Saltalamacchia” without looking it up.  Salty and Chris Davis should begin to make names for themselves in 2009, but rookie shortstop Elvis Andrus might be the worst regular hitter in the Major Leagues this year.

Rotation: D-
Bullpen: B-
Offense: B-
Fielding: D+
OVERALL: 53.7 (C)

Washington Nationals

They’ll score quite a few runs.  Alas, they will yield quite a few more.

Rotation: D
Bullpen: D+
Offense: B
Fielding: C
OVERALL: 55.9 (C)

Next up, the Rays.

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By Jimmy, 4/3/2009 12:16 pm

Chicago White Sox 2009 Team Preview

Rotation: Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Jose Contreras, Bartolo Colon
Bullpen: Bobby Jenks, Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Clayton Richard, Jeff Marquez, D.J. Carrasco

Offense:
1. SS Alexei Ramirez
2. C A.J. Pierzynski
3. LF Carlos Quentin
4. DH Jim Thome
5. RF Jermaine Dye
6. 1B Paul Konerko
7. 3B Josh Fields
8. CF Dewayne Wise
9. 2B Chris Getz

Bench: Corky Miller (C), Brent Lillibridge (INF), Wilson Betemit (INF) Brian Anderson (OF)

I guess I don’t get the wisdom of putting DeWayne Wise and his career .254 OBP (!!) in the leadoff spot, but that’s what Ozzie Guillen plans on doing.  Not that there’s really any great leadoff option here; the on-base guys in this lineup are all lumbering big-bopper types.  I can’t really see Carlos Quentin repeating the season he had last year, but there should be plenty of pop throughout the middle of the order even if he does regress.

The rotation is a little scary, especially in the back end.  John Danks could break out into a staff ace, but Mark Buehrle pitches to contact more than I would like. The one part of this team I like is the bullpen.  Several experienced hard-throwers for the late innings, and some versatile long men who can step in and start a game in the event that Bartolo Colon explodes like a pinata.

Defensively, the team is in very rough shape.  Jermaine Dye is most likely the worst RF in baseball, and DeWayne Wise does not have favorable minor league CF numbers.  Alexei Ramirez, who wasn’t a great 2B last year, will move over to SS.  The lone bright spot on the field will be Chris Getz, who flashed decent leather in the minors at 2B.

Starters: C-
Bullpen: B+
Offense: C-
Fielding: D+
OVERALL SCORE: 51.6 (C/C-)

Cleveland Indians 2009 Team Preview

Rotation: Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona, Carl Pavano, Scott Lewis, Anthony Reyes
Bullpen: Kerry Wood, Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, Joe Smith, Masa Kobayashi, Zach Jackson

Offense:
1. CF Grady Sizemore
2. 3B Mark DeRosa
3. C Victor Martinez
4. DH Travis Hafner
5. SS Jhonny Peralta
6. RF Shin-Soo Choo
7. 1B Ryan Garko
8. LF Ben Francisco
9. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera

Bench: Kelly Shoppach (C), Jamey Carroll (INF), Trevor Crowe (OF), Josh Barfield (INF)

What did Cliff Lee do different last year?  In simple terms, he became a ground ball pitcher overnight.  His GB/FB ratio for the past 5 years:

2004 0.75
2005 0.81
2006 0.68
2007 0.71
2008 1.31

More ground balls, and slightly fewer walks, turned Cliff Lee into a Cy Young Award winner.  Can he keep that up?  He hasn’t been sharp this spring, with a GO/AO ratio back under 1 and an ERA over 12, but the whole non-correlation of spring stats applies.  All I know is that the rotation quoted above will look a lot different if Lee’s carriage turns into a pumpkin this season.  I’ll peg him for a good (not great) season in 2009.

Rotation Grade: C+
Bullpen Grade: A-
Offensive Grade: B-
Fielding Grade: C
OVERALL SCORE: (67.25 B-)

Minnesota Twins 2009 Team Preview

Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow, Luis Ayala, Philip Humber, Brian Duensing

Offense:
1. CF Carlos Gomez
2. 2B Alexi Casilla
3. C Joe Mauer
4. 1B Justin Morneau
5. DH Jason Kubel
6. RF Michael Cuddyer
7. LF Delmon Young
8. 3B Joe Crede
9. SS Nick Punto

Bench: Brian Buscher (IB/3B), Brendan Harris (INF), Denard Span (OF), Mike Redmond (C)

Before Francisco Liriano was injured, his fastball was regularly sitting at 95 MPH and was complimented with a 88 MPH slider.  When he returned over a year later, the fastball was 90 MPH and the slider was around 84 MPH.  The Twins hope he can slowly get his velocity close to what it was in 2006, when he was the best rookie pitcher in baseball.  If he can even come close to that, the trio of Liriano, Baker, and Slowey will be an AL Central institution for the forseeable future.

Rotation: C+
Bullpen: B+
Offense: B-
Defense: B-
OVERALL SCORE: 66.85 (B-)

That’s it for the AL Central.  For the record, I see no real powerhouse in this division, however, I have Deroit, Cleveland, and Minnesota being very close to one another, in terms of best team in the Central (and the Royals being a couple of steps behind, but not too far).  It should be fun to see these three go at it.

Next: finishing the NL East

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By Jimmy, 4/2/2009 10:02 am

Again, my apologies if you are a fan of one of the following teams.  It’s not that I don’t care about your franchise, but…if I may quote Winston Wolf: time is of the essence.  I’d like to write a full preview of three teams in particular before Opening Day (I’m sure you can guess which teams), and for this to happen, I have to breeze through some others.  Like the career of Creighton Gubanich, these will be quick.

The following two teams are the NL West squads I have yet to cover.

Arizona Diamondbacks 2009 Team Preview:

Projected Pitching Staff:

1) Brandon Webb
2) Danny Haren
3) Max Scherzer
4) Jon Garland
5) Doug Davis

Chad Qualls
Tony Pena
Jon Rauch
Yusmeiro Petit
Scott Schoeneweis
Billy Buckner
Juan Gutierrez

Projected Hitters:
1. 2B Felipe Lopez
2. CF Chris Young
3. SS Stephen Drew
4. LF Conor Jackson
5. RF Justin Upton
6. 1B Chad Tracy
7. 3B Mark Reynolds
8. C Chris Snyder

Eric Byrnes – OF
Miguel Monteiro – C
Augie Ojeda – SS
Tony Clark – 1B
Ryan Roberts – 2B/3B

The guy everyone will be watching in that rotation is 24-year-old Max Scherzer, a phenom with a mid-90’s fastball and a 10.6 K/9 in his 2008 debut.  If Scherzer reaches his ceiling, Arizona could have the best front three in the National League.  The lineup is full of upside, as Upton and Young both have superstar potential, and Stephen Drew has established himself as one of the better shortstops in the league.  Defensively, it’s a mixed bag.  Their outfield is decent, but their infield is lackluster.

Rotation Grade: B+
Bullpen Grade: D+
Lineup Grade: B
Fielding Grade: C+
OVERALL SCORE: 70 (B/B-) 

Colorado Rockies 2009 Team Preview:

Projected Pitching Staff:

1) Aaron Cook
2) Ubaldo Jiminez
3) Franklin Morales
4) Jorge De La Rosa
5) Jason Marquis

Manny Corpas
Huston Street
Taylor Buchholz
Ryan Speier
Jason Grilli
Alan Embree
Glendon Rusch

Projected Hitters:

1. CF Ryan Spilborghs
2. SS Troy Tulowitzki
3. 1B Todd Helton
4. 3B Garrett Atkins
5. RF Brad Hawpe
6. C Chris Iannetta
7. LF Seth Smith
8. 2B Clint Barmes

Ian Stewart – 2B/3B
Yorvit Torrealba – C
Jeff Baker – 1B/OF
Dexter Fowler – OF
Omar Quintanilla – INF

We’re a long way from 2007, aren’t we?  Who would have thought that Matt Holliday’s replacement would be the immortal Seth Smith (most notably Papelbon’s final victim in Game 4 of the 2007 World Series).  If I were Clint Hurdle, I would just punt defense and start Ian Stewart at 2B, but that’s me.  That rotation might be cruising for a bruising next season, without Jeff Francis for the year and counting on a couple of shaky pitchers to keep games close in Coors Field.  Defensively, the Rockies have a good middle infield, but they are very shaky in several other key areas (RF, 3B, CF)

Rotation Grade: D
Bullpen Grade: B-
Lineup Grade: C+
Fielding Grade: C-
OVERALL SCORE: 52.6 (C) 

That does it for the NL west.  Next up, I’ll finish up the remaining AL Central teams (Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago).

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By Jimmy, 4/1/2009 9:41 am

2009 Rotation Projection:

1. Chad Billingsley
2. Hiroki Kuroda
3. Clayton Kershaw
4. Randy Wolf
5. James McDonald

Ignore the rotation order I have up there; apparently Joe Torre decided to tab Hiroki Kuroda as the Opening Day starter.  This is probably a good topic for another post in iteslf, but: in the long run, the positioning of your 1-4 starters really doesn’t have much of an impact on anything, as they all will receive roughly the same number of starts assuming no injuries.

A lot of folks are down on this rotation, but I’m actually quite bullish here.  Billingsley is 24 and already a legitimate ace.  Kershaw could turn out just as good, if not better.  These guys will combine for over 400 Ks in 2009 if they stay healthy; they are basically Lincecum and Cain without the hype.  Kuroda is a tremendously poised veteran who keeps the ball in the park and won’t walk anyone, and Randy Wolf should be league average, although his All-Star days are long gone.  James McDonald is a promising right-hander with strong breaking stuff to complement a low 90’s fastball.  He might have some growing pains in his first full MLB season, but the Dodgers do have Jason Schmidt (remember him?) waiting in the wings if McDonald sputters.

Rotation Grade: B+

2009 Bullpen Projection:

Jonathan Broxton (CL)
Hong-Chih Kuo
Guillermo Mota
Cory Wade
Claudio Vargas
Jeff Weaver
Shawn Estes

We know the late-inning portion of this bullpen will be fine with Broxton and Kuo; the pair combined for 184 Ks in 149 relief innings last season.  Cory Wade had a tremendous rookie season, but don’t expect a repeat of it; his BABIP was .227 last year.  Still, he and Mota should be decent – not great – setup guys.  What we don’t know is how the middle-long relief will perform here.  Jeff Weaver, a guy who has been an abject failure of late, will return to the major leagues as a reliever.  Shawn Estes, another long-time starter, could be used is a LOOGY type of role.  Estes might be OK when used in this limited fashion, but I can’t expect anything good coming out of Jeff Weaver stepping on a pitcher’s mound.  Still, his role will be mitigated, and most of this pen is solid at the very least.

Bullpen Grade: B

2009 Offense Projection:

1) Raphael Furcal SS
2) Russel Martin C
3) Manny Ramirez LF
4) Matt Kemp CF
5) Andre Ethier RF
6) James Loney 1B
7) Casey Blake 3B
8) Orlando Hudson 2B

Bench:

Juan Pierre – OF
Mark Loretta – 2B/SS
Brad Ausmus – C
Doug Mientkiewicz – 1B/3B/RF
Juan Castro – INF

If you live in the Boston area, you know about the absolute hysteria surrounding Manny Ramirez.  Yes, still.  8 months after his last days in a Red Sox uniform, he is still a major conversation topic around these parts.  His final season in Boston was like a nuclear bomb, and we are still living with the toxic cloud.  The fallout has contaminated the brains of writers and radio hosts, and now they are radioactive zombies with only one thought in mind…”MANNY BAD”.

Regardless of all that, he might be the best right-handed hitter who ever lived, as crazy as that sounds.  A difficult guy to analyze given his age and his unique skill set, but you have to assume he’s still good for an OPS around .950 at the very least.  The lineup, as a whole, is excellent.  Every single guy is at least above average at his respective position.  They could use a decent infielder on the bench, but that’s a minor complaint.

Offensive Grade: A

Fielding Projection:

This team has to have one weakness, right?  Here it is.  Manny and Kemp will give the Dodgers a huge weak spot out in left-center.  The middle infield is OK, but both guys are not what they used to be.  The team nearly converted Russ Martin to a third baseman, which is telling.

Fielding Grade: D+

Maybe I’m overrating that rotation a bit, but it looks like this is the strongest team I’ve reviewed thus far.  (Note: I still have a bunch of good teams left to review).

Overall Grade: 84.1 (A-/B+)

Next up: I’ll be writing an “express” review, with several squads packed into one post.  Father Time is a merciless fellow, and Opening Day is almost here.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 3/27/2009 4:01 pm

Being a fan of Seattle’s rich musical history, it pains me to see their baseball team stuck Down in a Hole.   This is a team that really Fell on Black Days last season, going from 88 wins in 2007 to 101 losses in 2008.  Is new GM Jack Zduriencik a Better Man than the last GM, or will he be forced to wear a Crown of Thorns?  We shall see.

2009 Projected Rotation

1) Felix Hernandez
2) Erik Bedard
3) Jarrod Washburn
4) Brandon Morrow
5) Carlos Silva

In a Nutshell, this is a rotation with some top heavy talent but serious injury risks.  King Felix Hernandez is turning 23 in April, and will have No Excuses; he should emerge as one of the top 3 or 4 starters in the American League.  Erik Bedard has the durability of a swatch of Corduroy, but is terrific when healthy.  Washburn and Morrow are both above average pitchers for their respective slots.  Silva’s an interesting case, and his 2009 performance is a true Superunknown.  Last year he was absolutely terrible, but he still has that pinpoint control which can keep the team in games.  If one of the starters is injured, Ryan Rowland-Smith will be a suitable replacement.

Rotation Grade: B

Projected 2009 Bullpen

Chad Cordero (CL)
David Aardsma
Miguel Batista
Roy Corcoran
Tyler Walker
Cesar Jiminez
Mark Lowe

This bullpen will leave many Mariners fans sitting in the Angry Chair.  Chad Cordero, their best reliever by far, is out until mid-May.  I’m rooting for old friend David Aardsma to win the interim closer role, but he’s not exactly Firpo Marberry, and it’s all really up in the air.  Miguel Batista is just terrible, walking more guys than he struck out last year.  Corcoran and Jiminez are both promising pitchers, but they aren’t really late-inning types at this point.

Bullpen Grade: D-

2009 Offensive Projection:

1) Ichiro Suzuki RF
2) Jose Lopez 2B
3) Adrian Beltre 3B
4) Ken Griffey Jr. DH
5) Yuniesky Betancourt SS
6) Russell Branyan 1B
7) Wladimir Balentien LF
8) Kenji Johjima C
9) Franklin Gutierrez CF

Bench:

Jeff Clement – C
Endy Chavez – OF
Ronny Cedeno – INF
Mike Morse – OF
Mike Sweeney – 1B/DH

The folks at Baseball Prospectus feel that superstar Ichiro Suzuki’s best days are in the Rearviewmirror, and that he’s destined for his first season without 200 hits or a .300 batting average.  Without his production, the Seattle offense could find themselves in the midst of a Hunger Strike.  Adrian Beltre, a solidly above-average third baseman whose 48 HR days are Far Behind, is likely their best hitter now.  Branyan is an intriguing sort of player; a guy who swings as hard as he can at a handful of pitches and hits one 500 feet on occasion.   All I Know is that this lineup will have Seattle pundits writing columns laced with Judgement, Rage, Retribution, and Thyme.  It could get ugly.

Offensive Grade: D

Fielding Projection:

If it Smells Like Teen Spirit in here, it’s because Seattle’s fielders are as nimble as 15-year-old female Olympic gymnasts.  Their outfield defense might be the best in the AL, and their infielders aren’t slouches, either.  A bright spot for a team with little to be optimistic about.

Fielding Grade: A

Playing in Safeco Field will be a double-edged sword for the Mariners this season.  They will prevent plenty of runs with their talented rotation and flashy gloves, but that offense will get about as much action as An Elderly Woman Behind The Counter in a Small Town.  If this team performs anything like they did last season (they’ll probably improve a bit, but they might not), manager Don Wakamatsu could quickly become the proverbial Man in the Box.

Overall Grade: 48 (C-)

Okay, sorry about all the grunge puns.  I’m sure they became tiresome after the second paragraph or so.  Never again, I promise.  Next up: Mannywood!

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 3/25/2009 12:13 pm

Thinking about this team always gets me wondering about the following scenario:

Imagine you wake up tomorrow morning, pick up the Boston Globe or log onto SoSH or whatever your initial news outlet might be, and you see the following headline: “Selig, Henry Agree to Move Red Sox to National League”.  The article goes on to describe how Bud Selig proposed moving baseball’s most popular franchise to the NL for the purpose of increasing attendance in floundering NL East stadiums like Washington and Florida, and Selig/Lucchino agreed to the move because they despise the Yankees and do not wish to face them any longer, and the Red Sox will play in the National League starting in 2010.

How pissed would you be?  No more games against the hated Yankees or upstart Rays.  Enjoy your new rivalry with…the Mets?  Yawn.  Oh, and let’s not forget about the “Natural Rivalry” with the Atlanta Braves.  I cannot imagine what it must have been like for those Milwaukee Brewers fans who woke up one morning and learned that they would no longer be in the same division as New York, Boston, Cleveland and Detroit.

2009 Projected Rotation:

1) Yovanni Gallardo
2) Dave Bush
3) Manny Parra
4) Jeff Suppan
5) Braden Looper

Obviously, the rotation here will take a hit after losing two of the best pitchers in the game to free agency (assuming Ben Sheets doesn’t return).  However, they do get a boost from a healthy Yovanni Gallardo, a 23-year-old with the stuff of an ace.  After Gallardo, the guy I like best in this rotation is Manny Parra.  A stocky lefty with a 4-pitch arsenal, he’s been plagued by a high BABIP in both of his MLB seasons.  If he can command the ball a bit better, the Brewers could have a solid #2 on their hands.  Looper and Bush are decent ground ball guys who will keep the defense on their toes but should keep the Brew Crew in the game.  Jeff Suppan, on the other hand, is one of those cases where I’m shocked that he’s still in the major leagues (the Darren Oliver Effect).

Rotation Grade: C-

2009 Projected Bullpen:

Trevor Hoffman (CL)
Carlos Villanueva
Seth McClung
Mitch Stetter
David Riske
Todd Coffee
Tim Dillard
Chase Wright

Hoffman is a future Hall of Famer who should be able to provide one more year as a solid closer.  However, as with any player over 40, you have to be prepared for the wheels to fall off at any time.  Villanueva and McClung are both versatile guys who can start when needed, but it looks like Milwaukee plans to use them as late-inning relievers in the short term.  Stetter is the resident lefty on the staff, and will probably be utilized in a LOOGY role.  Dillard is the reliever with the most upside of this group, a 25-year-old with a hard fastball/slider combo.  Riske, Coffee, and Wright are all weak options.  (Wright’s claim to fame is yielding 4 straight home runs to the Red Sox while pitching for the Yankees).

Bullpen Grade: C-

2009 Projected Offense:

1) Richie Weeks – 2B
2) J.J. Hardy – SS
3) Ryan Braun – LF
4) Prince Fielder – 1B
5) Corey Hart – RF
6) Bill Hall – 3B
7) Mike Cameron – CF
8) Jason Kendall – C

Bench:

Tony Gwynn Jr. – OF
Trot Nixon – LF/RF
Craig Counsell – 2B/SS
Mike Rivera – C
Mike Lamb – 1B/3B

Top to bottom, it should be one of the best lineups in the NL. Braun and Fielder are two of the biggest run producers in the league.  Hart, Weeks, and Hardy are among the best at their positions offensively.  Cameron is above average, and Hall and Kendall should be average at the very least.  The bench leaves a bit to be desired, as I wouldn’t want any of those guys seing serious playing time (with the exception of promising backup catcher Mike Rivera), but most of the Milwaukee lineup is young and healthy.

Offensive Grade: B+

Fielding Projection:

The Milwaukee infield can be split up into two halves: the “good side” and the “bad side”.  Can you guess which one is the “bad side”? If you were to guess the side with the 270 pound man, you would be correct.  The outfield is just OK.  While Ryan Braun was a terrible, terrible third baseman, he’s only slightly below average in LF.  Cameron’s reputation as a Gold Glove outfielder proceeds itself, but he’s 36 years old and has been inconsistent of late.  Corey Hart is average in RF, but he’ll probably improve once he stops wearing his sunglasses at night.  Kendall is still solid despite his age.

Defensive Grade: C-

The Brewers will probably take a step back in 2009, a fate that can only be expected after losing two All-Star starting pitchers.  Gallardo’s return to the staff will mitigate the blow a bit, but if this team wants to return to the playoffs, they’ll need a 2004 Manny-Ortiz type performance out of Braun and Fielder.

Overall Grade: 63.5 (B-/C+)

Next up: We visit a region known for salmon, suicide, and an evil coffee empire.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 3/23/2009 2:07 pm

My apologies for the long delay between posts.  My skin is cracked and blistered from countless hours spent under the merciless sun of southwest Florida.  I can’t really complain, though. Anyway, let’s get right to it:

Projected 2009 Rotation:

1) Jeremy Guthrie
2) Koji Uehara
3) Mark Hendrickson
4) Adam Eaton
5) Alfredo Simon

Guthrie and Uehara are both locks to open the year in the rotation, but those last 3 spots are really up in the air.  The Orioles have the promising Rich Hill rehabbing from injury, but chances are he won’t be ready in April.  David Pauley and Danys Baez are also in the mix.  As you can see, this rotation is a major weakness.  To put it quantitatively, the sum of the projected VORP for these 5 pitchers in roughly 450 projected innings (as determined by Baseball Prospectus) is less that the projected VORP of Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon in 60 projected innings.  The AL East is stocked with powerful lineups that will feast on these guys like hunger-crazed hyennas tearing apart a bloated hippo carcass.

Rotation Grade: F+

Projected 2009 Bullpen:

George Sherrill (CL)
Chris Ray
James Johnson
Jamie Walker
Dennis Sarfate
Matt Albers
Heyden Penn

The bullpen picture is a bit more promising than the rotation, as the late innings should be in decent shape in the hands of Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson.  Walker was once a decent bullpen guy, but had a terrible season in 2008 and is turning 37 in July.  The rest of the pen consists of mop-up guys who are not quite good enough to be starting pitchers…which is fine, since the rotation is a disaster and lots of long relief innings will be needed.

Bullpen Grade: C+

Projected 2009 Offense:

1) Brian Roberts 2B
2) Adam Jones CF
3) Nick Markakis RF
4) Matt Wieters C
5) Luke Scott DH
6) Aubrey Huff 1B
7) Melvin Mora 3B
8) Felix Pie LF
9) Cesar Izturis SS

Bench:

Greg Zaun C
Ty Wiggington 1B/2B/3B
Ryan Freel SS/OF
Lou Montanez OF

Matt Wieters was born on the twenty-first day in May, in the Year of Our Lord nineteen hundred and eighty six.  When He emerged from the womb, he looked upon His world and saw that it was good.  He then unearthed a 270 foot sequoia and whittled it into his first baseball bat, for which He used to bash down the Berlin Wall at the age of three.  Throughout His adolescent years, he battled Satan’s evil hordes and drove them back to their underground lair of fire, in between punishing opposing Legion Ball pitchers and sending thousands of baseballs into orbit.  When He first donned catcher’s equipment, the local scribes dubbed this equipment “The Tools of Omnipotence”, for a bright glow could be seen emanating from them.  And they saw that it was good.  The Baltimore Orioles, realizing that great power can be dangerous as well as beneficial, have chosen to keep Him in the minor leagues for the time being.  Not unlike Frodo Baggins with “The One Ring”, Orioles management are hesitant to use Matt Wieters, in fear of the seductive lure of powerful abilities.  What if he falls into the wrong hands?  What then!?

Seriously, though, this lineup is interesting even without Wieters initially making the team.  Roberts and Markakis are both among the best at their respective positions.  Adam Jones has the potential to break out into superstar territory at some point, and Felix Pie also has a high ceiling.  Huff, Scott, and Mora are all above average offensive contributors.  The O’s also feature a solid bench, with the Crash Davis-like Zaun and the versatile Freel/Wiggington combo.

Offensive Grade: B-

2009 Fielding Projection:

Up the middle, the Orioles are strong.  Izturis and Jones are among the best fielders at their positions, and while Brian Roberts might be losing a step, he’s still better than average.  Wieters is a good defensive catcher by all accounts, as is Zaun.  The tandem of Markakis-Joes-Pie could be the best defensive outfield in the American League.  Melvin Mora isn’t the defensive abomination he once was, but neither he nor Aubrey Huff will be bringing home a Gold Glove.  Corner infielders notwithstanding, this is a nifty defensive team.  Thank God for that, or the team ERA might have found itself in John Wasdin territory.

Fielding Grade: B+

The Orioles have a handful of young guys who fans a reason to be hopeful.  Jones, Wieters, along with a couple of minor league pitchers might all be All-Star caliber players in two or three years.  When I calculated the overall grade, it was higher than I expected, mostly due to a boost from a decent bullpen and strong fielders.  A novel (yet difficult) short term goal for this team will be to avoid last place in baseball’s toughest division.

Overall Score: 52.5 (C)

Next up: the city known for mass-production of a product I often refer to as “Happy Juice”.

Comments (5)

By Jimmy, 3/12/2009 10:47 am

Projected 2009 Rotation:

Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Randy Johnson
Jonathan Sanchez

Oddly enough, the worst pitcher in this rotation is probably the guy who makes the most money.  Barry Zito’s one strength at this point is the ability to eat innings.  We’ve been waiting for him to recapture that magic he had 5 years ago in Oakland, but now that he’s turning 31 and his fastball is sitting at 85 MPH and he walks nearly as many guys as he strikes out, it’s time to accept that he’s not going to be any better than league average (and even hoping for league average is a stretch).

Tim Lincecum is now a baseball folk hero, and rightfully so. (”Hey, look! That short guy is good at stuff!”)  A reasonable analysis would predict at least a modest decline from his 10.5 K/9 Cy Young season in 2008, but we can still expect him to be among the top 5 pitchers in the NL.  Matt Cain is again a candidate to break out and join Lincecum at that same elite table, and Jonathan Sanchez might be the best #5 starter in the NL.

I won’t even waste time predicting what Randy Johnson will do this year.  He’s not human; he’s actually some sort of prehistoric bird, and thus is not subject to the same effects of age as you and me.  With his crazy pterodactyl muscles and joints, he could very well throw another 180 innings at the age of 45.  Even if he can’t, Noah Lowry provides some decent insurance.

Rotation Grade: A-

Projected 2009 Bullpen:

Brian Wilson (CL)
Jeremy Affeldt
Bobby Howry
Jack Taschner
Alex Hinshaw
Keiichi Yabu
Noah Lowry

The addition of Affeldt and Howry help a thin bullpen. Brian Wilson is probably better than his 4.62 ERA last year (3.81 FIP), but he’s really just another guy among a group of mediocre relievers.  Taschner and Hinshaw both walk too many guys for my liking, and Yabu will be 40 this year.  The Giants do have future closer Sergio Romo waiting in the wings, but he’s not completely healthy at this point.

Bullpen Grade: D+

Projected 2009 Offense:

1) Randy Winn – RF
2) Edgar Renteria – SS
3) Fred Lewis – LF
4) Aaron Rowand – CF
5) Pablo Sandoval – 3B
6) Bengie Molina – C
7) Travis Ishikawa – 1B
8) Kevin Frandsen – 2B

Bench:

Nate Schierholtz – OF
Juan Uribe – 2B/SS
Rich Aurilla – 1B/3B
Stephen Holm – C
Eugenio Velez – IF/OF

There’s not really much to say.  My batting order is irrelevant; Bruce Bochy likes to bat Sandoval 3rd and Molina 4th.  The best hitter on the team is probably Schierholtz, wasting away on the bench.

Offense Grade: F+

Projected 2009 Fielding:

Sandoval is inexperienced at 3B, not to mention fairly obese, so I think I’m dubious of his abilities at that position.  Edgar Renteria, as you know, is no longer a good defensive shortstop.  I’m going to plead ignorance on the right side of that infield (Frandsen and Ishikawa, just not much statistically significant data available), so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume average gloves for both.  The outfield of Winn-Rowand-Lewis is pretty good, and Molina is still a decent backstop despite his age.

Defensive Grade: C+

When you hear people repeat those tired “PITCHING IS ALL THAT MATTERS” type platitutes, just point them in the direction of the 2009 San Francisco Giants.  This team has a terrific rotation, and yet, the odds of them making the playoffs are similar to the odds of Bernie Madoff being elected mayor of New York.

Overall Grade: 45.1 (C-)

Next up: A team the Red Sox will see plenty of.  Hopefully the Sox will be able to keep the Devil down in the hole.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 3/2/2009 9:01 am

2008 was a tough year in Detroit.  Both of the major auto companies contracted corporate AIDS, and watched their stock prices plummet like t-cell totals.  Eminem’s popularity has faded.  And yes, the Detroit Tigers, the sexy pre-season pick to win it all last season, staggered to an unexpected last-place finish in 2008.  Now, the “Big Two” auto makers could conceivably improve upon their miserable year, and Eminem could release a new album in which he fantasizes about killing another family member, but can the Tigers claw their way out of the cellar?  Let’s see.

Detroit Tigers
2008 Pythagorean Record: 78-84
2008 Finish: 5th place, AL Central

Projected 2009 Rotation:

1) Justin Verlander
2) Jeremy Bonderman
3) Armando Galarraga
4) Edwin Jackson
5) Zach Miner

Let’s talk about ERA and FIP.  ERA, or “Earned Run Average”, is basically a measure of how effective a pitcher was at preventing runs from scoring.  While ERA is probably the most commonly used pitching metric these days, its major flaw is that it can be skewed by the quality of defensive plays (i.e., a slick-fielding shortstop could snag a line drive that would normally go for a double, thereby reducing his pitcher’s ERA even though the pitcher just gave up a bullet).  FIP, or “Fielding Independent Pitching”, attempts to factor out the effect of fielders on ERA.  You can subtract one from the other and get a rough idea on how lucky (or unlucky) a pitcher was in 2008.  Armando Galarraga, Detroit’s best starter last season, had the highest FIP-ERA difference in the majors.  So, it can be assumed that he was a lucky, and will probably come down to Earth next season.

Injuries to Jeremy Bonderman, lackluster performances form ace Justin Verlander, and the general putridity of Nate Robertson helped the Tigers to a last place finish.  They acquired Edwin Jackson from the Rays to bolster what was an disappointing rotation in 2008, and Zach Minor could be decent (assuming he manages to win that 5th spot over Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson – two of the worst starting pitchers in baseball).  Verlander still has some of the best stuff in the game and could easily rebound, and Bonderman might be a good #2 if healthy.  Even if Galarraga’s carriage turns into a pumpkin, the rotation could still be OK.

Rotation Grade: C

Projected 2009 Bullpen:

Fernando Rodney (CL)
Joel Zumaya
Brandon Lyon
Bobby Seay
Juan Rincon
Nate Robertson
Dontrelle Willis

There’s no real word on who the closer will be in Detroit.  Brandon Lyon might begin the year in the role, but I’ll wager 50 gold sovereigns that he doesn’t last 2 months there.  Zumaya and Rodney are both more overpowering and effective than Lyon.  Rodney is less of a gimp than Zumaya, so assume he spends more time in the closer’s role over the course of the season.  Willis and Robertson will both start games here and there, and nether has ever spent any prolonged time in the bullpen, but these guys are both batting practice pitchers right now.  Maybe a bullpen stint can change their approach and help them regain the effectiveness they’ve lost?

Overall, it’s a bullpen with some decent late-inning options and plenty of long relief depth available.  The only issue will be whether or not Brandon Lyon has incriminating photos of Jim Leyland along with the various other MLB managers he’s blackmailed over the past several years.

Bullpen Grade: C+

Projected 2009 Offense

1) Curtis Granderson CF
2) Placido Polanco 2B
3) Magglio Ordonez RF
4) Miguel Cabrera 1B
5) Carlos Guillen LF
6) Gary Sheffield DH
7) Brandon Inge 3B
8) Gerald Laird C
9) Adam Everett SS

Bench:

Marcus Thames – OF
Ramon Santiago – INF
Matt Trainor – C
Jeff Larish – 1B/DH

The offensive potential will decrease a bit from 2008, as Ivan Rodriguez and Edgar Renteria have been replaced by Gerald Laird and Adam Everett.  It’s one of the better lineups in the American League, especially 1 through 5, but there are question marks in the Motor City.  You know Cabrera will be a monster, but what about Ordonez, Polanco, and Guillen, all in their mid-30’s?  What about the geriatric (future Hall of Famer?) Gary Sheffield, who turned 40 last November?  Can these guys consistently hit over the course of the season?  My take on this lineup can be best described as cautiously enthusiastic.

Offense Grade: B

Fielding Projection

It’s pretty clear that the Tigers made some moves with leather in mind, as both Adam Everett and Gerald Laird immediately improve their respective positions.  Carlos Guillen was a terrible infielder, but he’ll move over to LF and Brandon Inge (a pretty good fielder) will assume 3B duties. Polanco is a great defensive 2B, Granderson is above average in CF, and Ordonez is just about average in RF.  Cabrera and Guillen are both butchers, but will have their shoddy gloves mitigated at 1B and LF.

Defensive Grade: B+

I think the Tigers rotation is better than their collective 2008 performance, especially in the case Justin Verlander, one of the most talented young pitchers in the league.  The offense should be close to what it was last year, and Detroit’s fielding should improve tenfold.  Expect the Tigers to exit the basement, and perhaps make a little noise in a weak AL Central in 2009.

Overall Grade: 66.2 (B-)

Next up: we visit the land of free love, Detective Adrian Monk, and BALCO. 

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 2/25/2009 10:21 am

Sometimes, I think about the Houston Astros, and I get a little depressed.  I was a child of the late 1980’s, and nothing represented the 1980’s better than the old Astros “stripe” uniform.  So, thinking about the Astros will inevitably get me thinking about that uniform, which in turn gets me thinking about carefree, innocent times.  Uniforms sure are different these days.  Everything is in shades of gray.  Streamlined, safely devoid of character and innovation.  Spawned from lemming focus groups with the purpose of selling to everyone while offending no one.  The “stripe” uniforms are never coming back, and neither are those carefree days.  If the world economy does eventually collapse, maybe I’ll think about that orange and red stripe and smile for a moment.

2009 projected rotation:

1) Roy Oswalt
2) Wandy Rodriguez
3) Brian Moehler
4) Mike Hampton
5) Brandon Backe

Oswalt, a 3-time All-Star and future Hall of Famer (barring catastrophic injury) will anchor a very thin rotation.  Oswalt himself will be 32 in August and posted the lowest ERA+ of his 8 year career in 2008 (although still very good -120).  Rodriguez had himself a career year at age 29 last season, as his K rate has gradually risen in each year he’s been in the league.  Now that he’s 30, we should at least expect some sort of normalization to that trend.

One we get past Rodriguez…wait for it…wait for it…”Houston, we have a problem!”.  Ha! Yes, I said it.  I was up all night trying to figure out how I could work that line into the analysis, and I just went for it, you know?  But, seriously though, the back-end of that rotation is pretty terrible.  I’ll throw one more NASA analogy at you: relying at Mike Hampton to start 32 games is like trying to fly to the moon in a WWI-era biplane.  Okay, I’m done.

Rotation Grade: D+

Projected 2009 Bullpen:

Jose Valverde (CL)
LaTroy Hawkins
Doug Brocail
Geoff Geary
Wesley Wright
Tim Byrdak
Chris Sampson

Valverde’s a decent swing-and-miss closer.  One are where I feel the pen is a little shaky is the bridge from the young relievers to Valverde; Hawkins is 36 and Brocail will be 42 in May.  If anything, there’s plenty of experience available to throw onto the field in late innings of tight ballgames, but can those guys really keep it up over a long season?  Geary’s a guy with a career ERA+ of 123 and a ground ball rate near 50%.  He’s only allowed 30 HRs in over 300 career innings between Houston and Philly, so he should continue to be decent in Enron…er…Minute Maid Park .  Wright is a live arm with a high K rate and plenty of potential, and Sampson is your typical league-average long-man (he’ll most likely get some starts given the space shuttle explosion that is the rotation).

Bullpen Grade: B-

Projected 2009 Offense:

1) Kaz Matsui 2B
2) Hunter Pence RF
3) Lance Berkman 1B
4) Carlos Lee LF
5) Miguel Tejada SS
6) Geoff Blum 3B
7) J.R. Towles C
8) Michael Bourn CF

Bench:

Humberto Quintero C
Aaron Boone INF
Darin Erstad OF
Jason Michaels OF
Edwin Maysonet SS

An outstanding lineup up top, but not a lot of offensive support in the bottom half.  A key to Houston’s success will be the health of guys like Lee and Tejada, because that bench is incredibly thin.  To get an idea of just how thin Houston’s reserve pool is, Baseball Prospectus is predicting that Koby Clemens (Roger’s 22-year-old son, has yet to reach Double-A) will make an appearance on the MLB roster at some point in 2009.  Lance Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game and he will be surrounded by run-producers, so Houston should score quite a few runs despite the lackluster 6-7-8 hitters in this lineup.

Offensive Grade: B-

Fielding Projection:

Miguel Tejada has been repeatedly panned by the baseball cognoscenti as one of those Jeter-esque “all-bat, no-glove” shortstops, but he actually did improve quite a bit in his first season in the NL.  It’s odd that his defensive prowess is negatively correlated to his bat, and one might theorize that it is a loss in bulk leading to his extra mobility.  Matsui, Blum, Bourn, and Pence are all slightly above-average fielders.  Berkman and Lee are…good hitters.

Fielding Grade: C+

Despite a rotation which might be the thinnest in baseball, Houston does have some Cinderella potential given their powerful lineup and their versatile bullpen.  Unfortunately, they are in that pesky 6-team division, and that rotation might be subjected to some serious abuse against the likes of Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun.  Even if they do find themselves contending in July, there’s not much hope for the Astros pulling off a mid-season trade for pitching, as their minor league system is very shallow.

Overall Grade: 58.6 (C+) 

Next up: This team plays in my favorite MLB stadium (out of the 12 or so I’ve visited), but my least favorite neighborhood.  A terrific stadium surrounded by a sea of squalor and neglect.

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 2/23/2009 10:31 am

Supposedly the Academy Awards are being distributed as I type this.  I’m not watching, but I’m willing to bet my mortgage that Heath Ledger will posthumously win the award for Best Supporting Actor.  Now, I did see the Dark Knight and I thought it was well done, and Ledger was probably at least as good as Jack Nicholson was in the same role years ago.  However, I’ve been wondering…how hard is it to play a crazy guy, to produce a gravelly voice and laugh frantically and wear makeup and act like a psychopath?  I contend that it’s relatively easy for trained actors to do that sort of thing, yet it’s these types of roles that draw the most attention.  I guess the point I’m trying to make is this: if this guy didn’t eat a bunch of pills and off himself, do we really think he’d win an Oscar for his role as “The Joker”?  Something to ponder.

On to our next team.

Florida Marlins
2008 Pythagorean Record: 81-81
2008 Finish: 3rd place, NL East

2009 Projected Rotation:

1) Ricky Nolasco
2) Josh Johnson
3) Anibal Sanchez
4) Andrew Miller
5) Chris Volstad

A couple of nights ago I was watching the MLB Network, and Harold Reynolds was on with a few other guys.  He was talking about teams with good rotations, and claimed that Florida might have the best front three in the game.  My initial thought after hearing this was that Harold must have licked a brightly-colored South American toad before the broadcast.  But then I realized that Reynolds probably misspoke, he was most likely talking about Tampa Bay.

The main problem with Florida’s rotation isn’t the inexperience (although that is a problem), it’s that 4 of these guys are injury risks, and the one guy who isn’t (Volstad) is 22-years-old and one year removed from High-A ball.  Nolasco was Florida’s best starter in 2008, but pitched only a handful of innings in 2007.  Miller, Johnson, and Sanchez were all hurt at some point in 2008.  They are reportedly healthy now, but if one or more of these guys go down in 2009, there isn’t much in the way of depth to replace them.  Florida has drawn buckets of talent from their prospect well very early as they are prone to do, and now there isn’t much left down there.  If I were grading this group on upside they might get an “A”.  Unfortunately, I have to consider how well I think they’ll fare in 2009 alone.

Rotation Grade: D

2009 Projected Bullpen:

Matt Lindstrom (CL)
Leo Nunez
Scott Proctor
Reynel Pinto
Logan Kensing
Taylor Tankersley
Jose Ceda

The hard-throwing Lindstrom inherits the closer’s role from Kevin Gregg (traded to the Cubs), and he’ll be set-up by newcomers Leo Nunez and Scott Proctor.  Kensing, Pinto, and Tankersley are all younger guys who’ve have had control problems in their MLB careers.  Lindstrom is a true talent and there’s some upside among the younger kids, but the macro picture of this bullpen looks like a scattered mess of flotsam and jetsam.  Scott Procter?  Ugh.

Bullpen Grade: D+

2009 Projected Offense:

1) Cameron Maybin – CF
2) Jeremy Hermida – RF
3) Hanley Ramirez – SS
4) Dan Uggla – 2B
5) Cody Ross – LF
6) Jorge Cantu – 3B
7) John Baker – C
8) Gaby Sanchez – 1B

Bench:

Dallas McPherson – 3B
Wes Helms – 1B
Alfredo Amezaga – CF/SS/2B
Luis Gonzalez – OF
Mike Rabelo – C

Gone are Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham, and in their place are two rookies who have not played a single game in AAA.  Maybin and Sanchez were both decent in AA (.277/.375/.456 and .314/.404/.513 respectively) but it will be difficult for them to perform at even league average levels out of the gate.  To be fair, I would have applied that same prognosis to Hanley Ramirez in the spring of 2006, and it would have looked rather foolish now.  Hey, Florida likes ‘em young.  Sometimes it actually works out.

As a whole, the lineup is decent.  Ramirez is terrific of course, Uggla is one of the best offensive second basemen in the game, and Hermida, Ross, and Baker are all above average offensive players at their positions.  I’m not entirely sold on the Jorge Cantu renaissance, but if the Bad Jorge shows up in 2009, the Fish do have Dallas McPherson available (.275/.379/ .618 in the PCL last year).

Offensive Grade: B-

2009 Fielding Projection:

It’s always difficult to analyze the defense of rookies.  Not a ton of defensive analysis is published from the minor league levels, but the folks at www.minorleaguesplits.com at least give it a try.  However, sometimes there are problems with inconsistency (just as there are with the MLB fielding data I reference from time to time).  According to the above website, Cameron Maybin was great defensively in 2006, terrible in 2007, and just about average in 2008.  We do know that he’s very quick and thus would probably cover lots of ground, so we’ll assume he’s at least average in CF in 2009.  The other two outfielders are above average.

The problem is Florida’s infield.  The left side of that infield might be the worst in the Major Leagues, and Uggla’s not exactly Johnny Evers himself.

Defensive Grade: D+

The Marlins were one of the more surprising teams in baseball last year, and would have received much more national love were it not for their bottom-feeding cousins from across the peninsula.  Larry Beinfest continues to face the challenge of maintaining talent while working with a microscopic budget and a non-existent fan base.  As they always do, the Fish are counting on the performances of several players who would still be in the minor leagues were they in different organizations.

At the very least, the explosive lineup will cause a stir among the handful of fans at Dolphins Stadium.

Overall Grade: 51.7 (C/C-)

Next Up: Ground Control to Major Tom, Your 3 through 5 Starters are Awful, There’s Something Wrong, Can You Hear Me Major Tom…Can You Hear Me Major Tom…

Comments (6)

By Jimmy, 2/19/2009 10:22 am

Red Sox spring training camp has been the joyous Sea of Tranquility we’ve all expected.  Every single player on the roster is in the best shape of his career.  Mike Lowell can crush cinder blocks with hips, like nutcrackers with an almond.  David Ortiz’s wrist is as sinewy as a cord of lumber.  Julio Lugo has put on 50 pounds of pure muscle with an offseason diet of black beans and 12-grain bread.  And his cousin wasn’t doing the shopping for him, either.

Oh, right, there was a public media spat between Sox pitcher Brad Penny and MLB Network hobgoblin Larry Bowa, a bit of tension carrying over from their LA days.  This isn’t a surprise; Penny is known as an easygoing fellow, while Larry Bowa is the textbook manifestation of the Napoleon Complex, just a puss-filled wart of a human being.  Even so, Terry Francona had this to say: “I’m confident you won’t see the back and forth anymore with that”.  Translation: Tito dropped the Hammer of Thor on Penny.  I hope he’s OK.

Let’s see what Billy Beane has cooking in Oakland this year:

Oakland Projected 2009 Rotation:

1) Justin Duchscherer
2) Dana Eveland
3) Sean Gallagher
4) Dallas Braden
5) Gio Gonzalez

Duchscherer was on track for a Cy Young caliber season in 2008 before suffering a hip injury.  Reports indicate that he should be ready to start on Opening Day, and while he probably won’t provide a sub-3 ERA all season long, he’s most likely the best starter in this rotation.  Eveland could be league average if he throws strikes and keeps the ball down, but he’s not overpowering at all.  Braden can be overpowering, but hasn’t thrown more than 150 innings in a season.  I went to Stonehill College with 12 or 13 guys named Sean Gallagher, so maybe one of them pitches for the A’s now.  I hope he can score me tickets.  Gonzalez will compete for that 5th spot with Josh Outman (Trevor Cahill is a dark horse).  As they usually are, the Oakland organization is stocked with young arms.  The bad news is, the best of these arms are not ready for major league action: Cahill and Brett Anderson.  These guys are probably a year away from having any sort of success at the MLB level, and the bulk of the starters penciled into this rotation do not have tremendous near-term upside.

Rotation Grade: D+

Oakland Projected 2009 Bullpen:

Brad Ziegler
Joey Devine
Jerry Blevins
Russ Springer
Michael Wuertz
Santiago Casilla
Josh Outman

Gone is closer Huston Street, packaged to Colorado for big bopper Matt Holliday.  Even so, the Oakland bullpen should be pretty good next year.  Devine and Ziegler were both outstanding in 2008, finishing 6th and 8th in Al Rookie of the Year balloting respectively (pretty impressive for middle relievers).  They combined to have a 0.85 ERA over 105.1 innings, only 2 HR’s allowed.  Those numbers are unearthly and probably unrepeatable, but a competent projection would have both of these guys sitting in the 2.50 ERA range under normal circumstances. Blevins has averaged nearly 11 K/9 in his professional career, and should be a very solid setup man.  Wuertz and Casilla are both league average at worst, and Russ Springer will be playing the role of the obligatory grizzled veteran in the pen.  A couple of the hot prospects (along with Outman) could be utilized in long-relief roles.  This is a bullpen with a bevy of live arms and high upside, albeit short on experience.

Bullpen Grade: B

Oakland Projected 2009 Offense

1) Ryan Sweeney – CF
2) Mark Ellis – 2B
3) Matt Holliday – LF
4) Jason Giambi – DH
5) Jack Cust – RF
6) Eric Chavez – 3B
7) Kurt Suzuki – C
8) Daric Barton – 1B
9) Bobby Crosby – SS

Bench:

Travis Buck – OF
Rob Bowen – C
Rajai Davis – OF
Cliff Pennington – IF
Jack Hannahan – IF

This is a very Oakland-esque lineup isn’t it?  A bunch of big free-swingers.  Not one base stealer in the bunch (with the exception of Davis on the bench) but plenty of power and plate discipline.  Matt Holliday should be one of the best hitters in the American League.  PECOTA wants to have his children, predicting him to hit .327/.403/.568 in his new environment.  There’s a lot of versatility between DH, 1B, and RF, as Cust, Giambi, Buck, and Barton will all share at bats.  Barton has the most upside of the group, and if he breaks out he’ll nail down the permanent 1B job.  Eric Chavez and Mark Ellis are both wildcards who have been hurt and ineffective of late.  If they return to form, Oakland will turn some heads in the early going.  We’ve been waiting 5 years for Bobby Crosby to turn into Cal Ripken III, and at this point it probably won’t happen.  However, with the power and on-base abilities of the rest of this lineup, he shouldn’t drag down the offense too much.

Offensive Grade: B

Oakland 2009 Fielding Projection:

Intuitively, you’d think Oakland would be a poor defensive team due to the fact that their lineup resembles the Braintree Fire Department softball team.  However, that isn’t really the case at all.  The only big question mark is whether Ryan Sweeney can handle the transition from RF to CF in lieu of the departure of Carlos Gonlzalez.  Nearly everyone else there (especially the infield) is solid with the glove.  Matt Holiday isn’t the butcher you’d expect him to be.  Jack Cust isn’t a good defender, but Travis Buck is…and Buck might actually see more time in RF.

Defensive Grade: B

This team would be scary if not for their lackluster rotation.  Duchscherer could be an ace, but we have to expect him to regress from his monster 2008 season.  The rest of those arms, some promising but some not, could easily get knocked around in a tough American League.  The trade of Rich Harden is looking like a questionable move at this point (assuming they could have shipped someone other than Matt Murton for Matt Holliday this offseason).  Maybe their rotation will prove me wrong.

Overall Grade: 63.8 (B-/C+)  

Next up: we’re going fishing.  (Sails, not tails)

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By Jimmy, 2/17/2009 1:38 pm

As we await A-Rod’s 1 PM press conference, where he will undoubtedly give the public the incontrovertible truth surrounding his illegal performance-enhancing drug abuse ($1,000 says he will take a page out of Andy Pettitte’s playbook and blame it on an injury), let’s take a look at the oldest professional franchise in major American sports.

Projected Rotation:

1) Edinson Volquez
2) Aaron Harang
3) Bronson Arroyo
4) Johnny Cueto
5) Homer Bailey

Everybody loves the Josh Hamilton story, but let’s not forget who he was traded for: a 24-year-old starter who won 17 games, struck out 9.46 hitters per game, and made the All-Star team.  Most projections have Edinson Volquez regressing in 2009, but as long as he keeps those strikeout totals high, he should be able to avoid the long-ball problem which plagues so many pitchers at the Great American Ball Park.  The rest of the rotation is set in stone, with the exception of the 5th spot.  I’d say it’s 50/50 whether Micah Owings or Homer Bailey gets the nod.  I’ll give Bailey the nod, since he still has a very high ceiling whereas Owings does not.  Besides, Owings is a career .319/.355/.552 hitter and might be useful in the bullpen, where he could pinch hit AND pitch.  Volquez and Cueto are both live arms with lots of upside, and Arroyo and Harang are hardened veterans who will throw strikes and be average pitchers at worst.  The major X-factor will be Bailey, who looked more like a bust last season.

Rotation Grade: C+

Projected Bullpen:

Francisco Cordero (CL)
Arthur Rhodes
David Weathers
Mike Lincoln
Bill Bray
Jared Burton
Micah Owings

Cordero isn’t young anymore, but should be at least serviceable in the closer’s role as his K rate stays high enough.  Rhodes and Weathers have both experienced that all-too-familiar career arc: the mid 30’s bullpen renaissance.  Weathers has been more consistent and durable than Rhodes, but both guys should be considered risks at this point in their life cycles.  The rest of these guys (Lincoln, Bray, Burton) have had varying degrees of success in their brief MLB careers, but none of these guys are known for terribly overpowering stuff.  This bullpen could get ugly if those veteran set-up guys can’t hold it together.

Bullpen Grade: C-

Projected Offense:

1) Willy Taveras – CF
2) Edwin Encarnacion – 3B
3) Jay Bruce – RF
4) Joey Votto – 1B
5) Brandon Phillips – 2B
6) Ramon Hernandez – C
7) Alex Gonzalez – SS
8) Jerry Hairston – LF

Bench:

Jaques Jones – OF
Chris Dickinson – OF
Jeff Keppinger – INF
Ryan Hanigan – C
Daryle Ward – 1B

The meat of the order in Cincinnati will be a fun one to watch, as both Bruce and Votto have the potential to emerge as premier hitters in the National League.  However, the loss of Adam Dunn still hurts.  With all of his flaws (offensively and defensively) one cannot describe the difference in production between Dunn and the likes of Jerry Hairston or Jaques Jones.  Other than the gaping crater in left field, the rest of the lineup should be solid.  Willy Taveras might steal over 70 bases under the direction of aggressive manager Dusty Baker.

Offense Grade: B-

Fielding Projection:

The Reds have a good middle infield, assuming the reports on Gonzalez’s fully-healed knee are accurate.  At the corners, the team is weak.  Jay Bruce has a rough year defensively, but he could improve with more experience, as could Joey Votto.  We don’t really know who will be playing in LF for the Reds, and Encarnacion is a poor defensive 3B.  Taveras, with all of his speed, doesn’t cover as much ground as you might expect.

Fielding Grade: C

This team is similar to Kansas City; some promising young starters and a lot of upside in the middle of the lineup.  Unlike KC, the Reds find themselves in a very strong division, and I think their bast-case scenario is a 3rd place finish.  A worst case scenario (Bruce, Votto, or Volquez experience sophmore slumps, Bailey doesn’t pan out) would find them in the cellar.

Overall Grade: 61.25 (C+)

Next up: the birthplace of Ebonics. 

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By Jimmy, 2/12/2009 10:13 am

Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Pythagorean Record: 93-69
2008 Finish: 1st Place, World Series Champions

From the point of view of this Red Sox fan, the Phillies are like an older brother. An older brother who has a coke habit, receives unemployment checks, and is in and out of jail.  While you came up from poverty and graduated medical school, you felt some bittersweet remorse for your brother who just couldn’t seem to get it right, just couldn’t find success the way that you did.

Well, last October, things finally came together for our NL brethren.  The World Series victory was nice to see, not just for the reason mentioned above, but for another reason entirely.  How does the saying go…”the enemy of my enemy is my friend”?  Yes, the Tampa Bay Rays have bumped themselves up on our collective shit list, and watching the Cinderella Story get torn to shreds on national television was nothing short of orgasmic.  Even when the team trotted out one of the Hall & Oates guys to bleat the national anthem, my support did not waiver.  That’s dedication, folks.

So, is the 2009 squad built for a repeat?

Projected Rotation:

1) Cole Hamels
2) Joe Blanton
3) Brett Myers
4) Jamie Moyer
5) Kyle Kendrick

The Phillies will essentially feature the same rotation as last year.  Hamels is one of the best young pitchers in the game.  At age 25, he has never had a season in his professional career that wasn’t excellent.  The one issue you have to keep an eye on is his durability.  Hamels was plagued by injuries throughout his minor league career (but when he was healthy, he racked up a combined 1.43 minor league ERA).  He hasn’t had much of a problem yet in his brief Major League career, but after tossing 228 innings last year, who knows how his arm will react?  Joe Blanton and Brett Myers are both league average guys with solid durability, which brings us to Jamie Moyer.  Jamie is now 46.  Unreal, right?  I only vaguely remember when this guy pitched for the Red Sox, because it was so goddamn long ago.  Eventually, the laws of physics and biology will take their course on him; at this point we are just waiting for that shoe to drop.  The 5th spot in the rotation belonged to Kendrick last season and he’s the favorite to retain that role, but he’ll get some competition from veteran Chan Ho Park and prospect Cesar Carassco.

It’s odd (and not at all something I intended) that the three teams I’ve projected so far have similar rotations. Terrific #1 starters, a couple of league average guys in the middle, and gaping question marks in the back.

Rotation Grade: C+

Projected Bullpen:

Brad Lidge
Ryan Madson
Chad Durbin
Scott Eyre
Clay Condrey
Chan Ho Park
Adam Eaton

J.C. Romero will serve his 50 game suspension, so I’ll leave him out of this analysis.  Philly’s bullpen came up huge last season, with a 3.22 ERA in 483 innings of relief.  The good news is that most of those guys will return in 2009.  The bad news is it’s extremely questionable that Ryan Madsen, Chad Durbin, and Clay Condrey can repeat their 2008 success (144, 152, 134 ERA+, respectively).  The middle relief trio only struck out 6.17 guys per 9 innings collectively.  However, at worst, these guys are above-average relievers.  Closer Brad Lidge seems to have returned to his pre-2005 levels of dominance.  Park and Eaton are both dubious MLB talents at this stage of their careers, but their impact will be mitigated if they happen to pitch unreasonably poorly out of the gate.

Bullpen Grade: B

Projected Offense

1) Jimmy Rollins – SS
2) Shane Victorino – CF
3) Chase Utley – 2B
4) Ryan Howard – 1B
5) Raul Ibanez – LF
6) Jayson Werth – RF
7) Pedro Feliz – 3B
8) Carlos Ruiz – C

Bench:

Matt Stairs – OF
Geoff Jenkins – OF
Ronny Paulino – C
Greg Dobbs – 1B/3B
Eric Bruntlett – 2B/SS

It’s odd that the Phillies won a trophy in a season where the face of their franchise, Jimmy Rollins, had an off-year.  Most projections love him for 2009, including PECOTA (.293/.360/.458 in 651 PAs, 36 steals).  The 3/4 combo of Howard and Utley might be the best in the National League, as both guys could be legitimate MVP candidates.  The bottom of the lineup is OK, but the4re should be enough firepower at the top to score runs in 2009.  The one concern here is the substitution of Raul Ibanez for Pat Burrell, who will play for the Tampa Bay Rays this year.  Ibanez’s addition will make the heart of Philly’s order very left-handed, and thus vulnerable to LOOGY-ism late in the game.  Also, Ibanez will be 37 in June, so a drop in production in possible.  The team does have the benefit of a good, experienced bench, which is always helpful in the NL.

Offensive Grade: B+

Fielding Projection:

The middle infield combo of Rollins and Utley is not only excellent offensively, but defensively as well.  Both guys led the National League in UZR last season at their respective positions.  Shane “The Flyin’ Hawaiian” Victorino assumed full-time CF duties for the first time in his MLB last year, and did the job very well.  Pedro Feliz and Jayson Werth are also among the best fielders at their positions, and the gargantuan Ryan Howard is surprisingly average at first base.  The only area where Philly is weak is in LF, where Ibanez doesn’t have much mobility at all.  But, as I mentioned in the Blue Jays preview, shoddy defense in LF has become the norm in modern MLB baseball.  Overall, this team is excellent defensively.

Defensive Grade: A-

It looks like a team that will contend, but the sum of the parts doesn’t really scream “Championship” to you, does it?  The only major change from 2008 to 2009 is swapping Ibanez for Burrell, which is probably a net loss.  The rotation isn’t very promising outside of the #1 starter, and the bullpen probably overperformed in 2008.  The team was a bit too complacent in the off-season.  They could have really used another starting pitcher, and their solution came in the form of a scrap heap acquisition (i.e. Chan Ho Park).  I’ll be pulling for them to edge out their rivals from Queens, but the odds are not in their favor.  

Overall Grade: 73.5 (B)

Next: we’ll be visiting a city known for great BBQ, and a team with some high-profile fans in the baseball writing community.

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By Jimmy, 2/10/2009 1:16 pm

San Diego Padres

2008 Pythagorean Record: 68-94
2008 Finish: 5th Place

Last year was not a pleasant one for San Diego.  The city saw its property values plummet and its baseball team finish in last place.  Everyone and their mothers predicted the San Francisco Giants to bring up the rear in the NL West last season, but somehow, some way, the Pads managed to edge them out for that dubious honor (and by “edge them out”, I mean they finished 7 games behind the Giants).

Is there a glimpse of hope on the horizon?  While it once seemed like a foregone conclusion that ace pitcher Jake Peavy would be traded away by the cash-strapped team, there might be a change of plans.  The team is in the process of being sold to a group of investors (spearheaded by ex-Manny Ramirez agent Jeff Moorad), and the new owners will likely not be in a rush to gut the franchise of its premier talent, especially a 28-year-old ace pitcher.  Now that Peavy will likely be San Diego’s opening day starter, let’s take a glimpse at the rotation:

Projected Rotation:

1) Jake Peavy
2) Chris Young
3) Cha Seung Baek
4) Josh Geer
5) Kevin Correia

If Peavy stays, the Padres will have a bona fide #1 guy entering his prime, and he’ll be a solid bet to provide at least 180 top-notch innings.  Chris Young missed a bunch of time after getting drilled off the ol’ coconut by a laser beam off the bat of Albert Pujols, but appears to be healthy for 2009.  He’s held hitters to a .224 batting average over his career, and will be effective if healthy (Bill James is predicting a 3.37 ERA over 153 innings).  After Young, things appear to fall apart.  Cha Seung Baek is a league-average guy who keeps the ball in the strike zone but won’t blow anyone away (5.92 K/9 over his career), and the final two sports in the rotation are wide open.  There has been a Mark Prior sighting in San Diego’s spring camp, and he is reportedly throwing.  Since the guy hasn’t worn a game jersey in 2 years, I’ll put the burden of proof on him and keep Correia penciled in the 5th spot (although there will be other candidates: Cesar Carrillo, Chad Reineke, Jae Kuk Ryu, Wade LeBlanc, and Cesar Ramos).  If Jake Peavy is actually traded, this rotation will be in “F” territory.

Rotation Grade: C-

The bullpen will be without a very familiar face, as legend and future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman swaps his surfboard for a home-brewing kit, joining the Milwaukee Brewers.  How does the pen look without him?

Projected Bullpen:

Heath Bell (CL)
Cla Meredith
Mike Adams
Justin Hampson
Mark Worrell
Chris Britton
Jae Kuk Ryu

As much as I hated the Mirabelli for Bard/Meredith swap, I will concede that Cla Meredith is not really the guy you want to hand the 8th-inning to.  But, until Mike Adams returns from injury, he’ll have that responsibility.  Heath Bell was mediocre in the closer’s role last season, but given how he handled himself in 2007 (200 ERA+ in 94 innings), we can probably expect an improvement there.  GM Kevin Towers has made some interesting bullpen acquisitions in the form of Ryu and Worrell, but neither of these guys have much of a MLB track record.  Petco Field is a pitcher’s park, so this bullpen might get the bounces they need in certain situations, but there is a serious lack of depth here.

Bullpen Grade: D+

Offensively, Padres fans were treated to the emergence of one of the better first basemen in baseball, as Adrian Gonzalez played all 162 games, swatted 36 home runs, and hit .279/.361/.510 while making the All-Star team.  Brian Giles had an interesting year, vetoing a trade to the Red Sox and being caught on tape belting his ex-girlfriend, all while hitting .306/.398/.456 at age 37.  Giles will be sticking around San Diego, as will just about their entire 2008 offense with the exception of Khalil Greene.

Projected Lineup:

RF – Brian Giles
CF – Jody Gerut
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF – Chase Headley
2B – Chris Burke
SS – David Eckstein
C – Nick Hundley

Bench:
Cliff Floyd – OF/1B
Louis Rodriguez – INF
Scott Hairston – OF
Henry Blanco – C
Engar Gonzalez

Unfortunately for San Diego, two of their three best performers from 2008 are solid bets to regress in 2009.  Jody Gerut hasn’t played a full season since 2004, and Brian Giles is 38 and has off-field problems.  Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff both have high-upside and could be a decent 3-4 combo, but the rest of the lineup is a little flimsy.  Those last 5 spots in the batting order could put some genuine hate into the hearts of the usually laid-back San Diego residents.  The one spot up in the air here is 2B, where Chris Burke will compete with a couple of other guys this spring, including prospect Matt Antonelli.

Offensive Grade: D+

Fielding Projection:

The data indicates that Jody Gerut played a fine CF last season, 3 years removed from Major League baseball.  I’ll defer to the numbers in this case as assume he’ll be at least serviceable next season.  Brian Giles has been solid since moving to RF.  However, those are the only real bright spots on the diamond.  Eckstein has the range you’d expect of a garden gnome at SS, and both Kouzmanoff and Gonzalez are…hitters, in the purest sense of the word.

Fielding Grade: D

This is definitely a team in full-fledged rebuilding mode.  In San Diego, there are lots of things you can do to keep your mind off of baseball.  Thank God for that.

Overall Score: 41.8 (D+)

Next up: the defending champs!

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By Jimmy, 2/9/2009 10:01 am

Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Pythagorean Record: 93-69
2008 Finish: 4th Place

Right away, there should be warning bells going off.  93 Pythagorean wins last year and a 4th place finish?  Such is life in the AL East, the toughest division in baseball.  As a Red Sox fan, I witnessed firsthand what Toronto was capable of, as they outscored Boston 91-60 in a frustrating 18 game season series.  Toronto’s main strength was their pitching, with a rotation anchored by superstar Roy Halladay, arguably the best pitcher in the game.  The Jays also had the luxury of over 200 quality (if unexpected) innings from A.J. Burnett, as well as surprising performances from the likes of Jesse Litsch and Sean Marcum.  Their 2009 rotation looks to be slightly different, at least to begin the year:

Projected Rotation:

1) Roy Halladay
2) Jesse Litsch
3) David Purcey
4) Casey Janssen
5) Scott Richmond

Starters Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum, instrumental to last year’s rotation, will both miss serious injury time, and A.J. Burnett has decided to sell his soul to Satan.  Former 1st Round pick David Purcey will be called upon to pick up some of the pieces.  He was excellent in AAA last year (121/34 K/BB in 117 innings) before showing promising peripherals in the Majors.   While the first 3 starters are somewhat safe, the final two spots in the rotation are sort of wide open.  Casey Janssen and Scott Richmond are my best guesses as to who will begin the season in the starting rotation, but the team also has a couple of blasts from the past (Matt Clement and Mike Maroth) heading to camp to compete for work.  Let’s just say the Janssen and Richmond present more upside than the other two fellows mentioned above, which really isn’t saying much at all.  As you can see, this is a very top-heavy rotation.  If Litsch isn’t able to replicate last year’s magic, or if Purcey isn’t able to translate his AAA sucess to MLB wins, Roy Halladay will be a lonely guy on that mound.  Halladay’s presence and McGowan’s expected June recovery make the rotation almost respectable.  However, it could easily get very ugly.

Rotation Grade: C+

One saving grace up north could be the Blue Jays bullpen, which should actually get stronger next season.  Jeremy Accardo is reportedly past the arm issues which cost him most of the 2008 season, and he will bolster a pen that was one of the best in baseball last year (lowest bullpen ERA in the AL).

Projected Bullpen:

B.J. Ryan (CL)
Jeremy Accardo
Scott Downs
Brandon League
Jason Frasor
Brian Tallet
Jesse Carlson

With the exception of the gimpy Accardo, all of these guys had performances varying between decent and superb last season.  The one thing keeping this bullpen from a solid “A” is the fact that not one of these relievers averaged more than a K per inning last season.

Bullpen Grade: A-

Offensively, Toronto had the potential to be dangerous last season, with names like Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay, Alex Rios, and Vernon Wells.  It just never really came together.  Wells, their best hitter, only appeared in 108 games.  Rios, Rolen, and Overbay all fell a little short of expectations.  The 2009 lineup looks to be similar to the 2008 one:

Projected Offense:

1) Alexis Rios – RF
2) Travis Snider – LF
3) Vernon Wells – CF
4) Lyle Overbay – 1B
5) Scott Rolen – 3B
6) Adam Lind – DH
7) Aaron Hill – 2B
8) Marco Scutaro – SS
9) Rod Barajas – C

Bench:
Joe Inglett – INF
Michael Barrett – C
John McDonald – INF
Jose Bautista – OF

A general note: I wouldn’t put too much stock in that batting order; it’s the order I would use if I were filling out a lineup card.  Cito will probably not hit Travis Snider 2nd, I can tell you that much.

Snider is actually an interesting case.  He’s among a handful of viable Rookie of the Year candidates, and has impressed at every level he has played.  He represents the lone improvement from the 2008 lineup, and a lot could hinge on the performance of the 21-year-old phenom.  If he struggles for a prolonged period of time, he’ll probably find himself in Syracuse, with Jose Bautista playing in his place.  Another area to watch is second base, where Aaron Hill will try to keep his job in the face of Joe Inglett’s impressive 2008 campaign.  Other than these side-stories, there just isn’t a ton to be excited about here, given the lack of power threats.  I like Vernon Wells as much as anyone, but he’s not the guy you build a lineup around.

Offense Grade: C+

Defensively, the Jays are very solid in several areas (3B, RF, 2B), but have gigantic question marks in LF (Travis Snider is known as a no-glove sort of player) and CF (Vernon Wells lost a step last season).  Marco Scutaro is surprisingly decent at SS, having the second best UZR/150 among AL shortstops with at least 400 innings last season.  If a healthy Vernon Wells can somehow manage to cover the ground he once did pre-2008, the Jays will be decent up the middle and at the corners…with the exception of LF.  Most teams punt defense in LF these days, so I won’t really hold it against them.

Fielding Grade: B

If J.P. Ricciardi is finally canned after what will probably be described as a disappointing 8-year tenure akin to the one we just witnessed on Pennsylvania Avenue, you can probably point to that rotation as his Waterloo.  Two of his top 4 starters go down with severe injuries, and he summons the likes of Matt Clement and Mike Maroth, neither of whom have appeared in a MLB game in the past year?  You’re telling me that Mr. Hockey (Tom Glavine) wouldn’t entertain the possibility of playing in Canada for a season?  And it’s not like the offense couldn’t be improved.  Adam Lind is penciled in at DH, but you can’t at least kick the tires on Adam Dunn?

In another division, the Jays might be viable.  They have some upside in that rotation and at certain positions, but outside of Roy Halladay, there just isn’t anyone who strikes fear into the hearts of opponents.  Snider could be that guy in 3 years, but at age 21, he’ll probably have growing pains.  Toronto’s three main competitors all improved this offseason.  Toronto did not.  They will be playing nearly 60 games against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays.  They’ll win some, but lose most.

Overall Score: 64.8 (B-)

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By Zach, 3/3/2008 7:57 am

The American League Central has a bit of everything: home-grown favorites, flashy acquisitions, wannabe pretenders, rebuilding cowards and perennial doormats. Can the status quo Indians hold off the influx of Tiger talent? Has Bill Smith already lost his job? Can Trey Hillman lead the young Royals to the brink of .500? Who’s crazier: Ozzie Guillen or Kenny Williams? These are the questions that surround the Central.

Cleveland Indians – 2007 Actual 96-66, Pythag 92-70

Eighty billion. According to my estimates, that’s how many times someone said “if it ain’t broke…” in Indians front office meetings over the last year. There’s truth in cliches; ninety-six wins and a 48-24 record in the division are no fluke. The Tribe missed the World Series by a game and return the same team, plus a few pieces, in 2008. Be afraid.

Lineup
CF Grady Sizemore
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
DH Travis Hafner
C Victor Martinez
1B Ryan Garko
LF Dave Delucci (L) / Jason Michaels (R)
SS Jhonny Peralta
RF Franklin Gutierrez
3B Casey Blake

The lineup is not without questions. Pronk had a down season, and they need him to rebound. A boost from old acquaintance Andy Marte – out of options and without a starting job – will take some of the pressure off. He’ll get an opportunity to win the gig from Casey Blake, who can also play first and a bit of outfield. Infielder Jamey Carroll and Kelly Shoppach round out a talented bench.

Bullpen
RHP Joe Borowski (Closer)
RHP Rafael Betancourt
RHP Masahide Kobayashi
RHP Jensen Lewis
LHP Rafael Perez
LHP Aaron Fultz
RHP Tom Mastny

Borowski will toe the line, but his safety net is 225 pound test. In 2007, Fat Joe got the sexy save numbers, but the Rafael “The Red Turtle” Betancourt contributed far more (5.38 vs. 1.36 WPA) in actual win probability. Kobayashi is here to slide into the setup role when Borowski flames out, between laying waste to local hot dog carts. Lewis (29.3 IP, 7 ER, 34 SO, 10 BB) and Perez (60 IP, 0.92 WHIP, 62 SO, 15 BB) round out the second best ‘pen (Angels) in the AL.

Rotation
LHP C.C. Sabathia
RHP Fausto Carmona
RHP Jake Westbrook
RHP Paul Byrd
LHP Cliff Lee
LHP Jeremy Sowers
LHP Adam Laffey

The attention is squarely on Sabathia’s broad shoulders after he wiped his ass with the Indians’ latest attempt at a contract extension. Just days after Johan swam laps in a mountain of Wilpon cash, Mark Shapiro scrooged C.C. with a 4 year, $68 million deal. This, for a pitcher coming off a Cy Young season at 26 with the free agency holy land a season away. More than low-balling, that offer might be pathetic enough for Carsten Charles to cut Marky Mark out of the bidding entirely. The timing is most egregious. Santana signed on Feb 2 and by the 4th Sabathia had the Tribe’s “offer.” Shapiro isn’t stupid, so he must not be willing to make a commitment in the $120 million range. If Sabathia stays healthy, he’ll be due at least Santana money in 2009. He’s said he won’t negotiate during the season. Let the speculation begin!

As good as the ace was in 2007, Fausto Carmona nearly matched him. Skinny on the strikeouts, he gets by with his power sinker and 64.3 GB%, leading the American League. Don’t get too excited, his IP jumped from 74 to 214, so consider him a major injury risk. If he manages to stay healthy and cut down on some of the walks he’ll make the Indians top two the best in the league, en route to the ALCS and a World Series appearance. I hate to say it, but the Indians are preseason favorites. If Fausto repeats and one of the Lee/Sowers/Laffey group proves competent, the Indians will be the best team in baseball.

Detroit Tigers – 2007 Actual 88-74, Pythag 90-72

Lineup
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
3B Miguel Cabrera
DH Gary Sheffield
RF Magglio Ordonez
1B Carlos Guillen
SS Edgar Renteria
LF Jacque Jones
C Ivan Rodriguez

Edit: I can’t believe I forgot Cabrera above.

Experts tout the Tigers lineup like it will cure all that ails their pitching staff. That will not be the case. Five years ago they may have scored 1000 runs; now, all but Granderson and Cabrera are on the wrong side of 32. Gary Sheffield’s OPS+ trend is going in the wrong direction (162, 141, 137, 107, 120) and he’s 39. Magglio Ordonez had a career year, but it looks like an outlier. Players don’t usually sustain career highs in their 30s.

The Tigers will field a group of professional hitters, but there will be natural decline.

Bullpen
RHP Todd Jones (Closer)
RHP Fernando Rodney
LHP Bobby Seay
RHP Jason Grilli
RHP Zach Miner
LHP Tim Byrdak
RHP Yorman Bazardo

Somebody hire Joel Zumaya a moving crew. A sixty pound box fell on his right shoulder while escaping California wildfires last fall, landing the Tigers bullpen in doubt. He hasn’t begun throwing, so a midseason return is optimistic. In a move reminiscent of a Theo Epstein “buckshot at the bullpen monster,” Matt Mantei was brought in on a minor league deal. Unfortunately, this one is about five seasons too late. Lefty Bobby Seay broke out last year, but is relatively ineffective against righthanded batters (.707/.545 OPS vs. RHB/LHB). Someone needs to take some of the pressure off of Rodney until Zumaya returns.

Rotation
RHP Justin Verlander
LHP Dontrelle Willis
RHP Jeremy Bonderman
LHP Nate Robertson
LHP Kenny Rogers

The biggest question is Willis’ transition to the American League. Did Vegas (wins over/under 93.5) notice that he was awful last year? Any decline from his 83 ERA+ and 1.58 WHIP will be cause for a demotion to rookie ball. Bonderman should be healthy, but Robertson has had exactly one above average season and Rogers is 44! This team just isn’t. that. good.

Chicago White Sox – 2007 Actual 72-90, Pythag 67-95

As bad as the White Sox were in 2007, Bill James and Pythagoras say they overachieved.

Lineup
CF Jerry Owens
SS Orlando Cabrera
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermain Dye
LF Nick Swisher
C A.J. Pierzynski
3B Josh Fields
2B Danny Richar

Settle down, Kenny. You’ve made too many acquisitions in the wrong places, and now you’ve got a mess on your hands. Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez didn’t leave his family behind to ride the pine, but he’s third on the depth chart at second base. Veteran and Guillen favorite Juan Uribe will battle with Richar. Example number 2,431 that Ozzie is an idiot: Juan Uribe stole one base last year, and was caught nine times.

“Nine times.”

The outfield is more crowded than Starbucks on free “full body” latte day. New acquisition Carlos Quentin is the fourth outfielder unless Owens bombs, forcing Swisher to center. Oh, and Joe Crede doesn’t have a spot or any trade value. Beautifully executed, Professor Williams.

Bullpen
RHP Bobby Jenks (Closer)
RHP Scott Linebrink
RHP Octavio Dotel
LHP Matt Thornton
RHP Mike MacDougal
LHP Boone Logan
RHP Nick Masset

You should recognize some of these names. Additions Linebrink and Dotel were had for a mere $30 million. A bit high, but maybe worth the premium if its going to put you over the top. Wait, does this put the White Sox over the top? Absolutely not. Terrible, terrible moves. Linebrink is on a four year deal, and is no longer the lights-out reliever he was in 2005 (210 ERA+). His strikeouts and his home runs allowed went in the wrong directions last year. At the end of that deal he’ll be dead weight.

Rotation
LHP Mark Buehrle
RHP Javier Vasquez
LHP John Danks
RHP Jose Contreras
RHP Gavin Floyd
RHP Lance Broadway

They subtracted the overrated but serviceable Jon Garland and added Gavin Floyd. Will the Danks/Contreras/Floyd/Broadway group contribute 90 quality starts? That would be 540 IP, or 135 each. Not a chance. Danks and Contreras will struggle to be average, and Broadway was figured out by minor leaguers in 2007. Buehrle and Vasquez come with their own issues, but the end of the rotation will doom the Pale Hose.

Kansas City Royals – 2007 Actual 69-93, Pythag 75-87

The Royals are going to surprise. Maybe not .500, but they’ll get to 75 wins, a six game improvement from 2007.

Rotation
RHP Gil Meche
RHP Brian Bannister
RHP Zack Greinke
RHP Brett Tomko
LHP Mike Maroth
LHP Jorge De La Rosa

The wild card is Greinke. Troubled colleagues Rick Ankiel and Oliver Perez have treated their complexes, and if the end of 2007 (7 GS, 34 IP, 31 SO, 1.85 ERA) is any indication, my namesake will continue the trend. While Meche turned Dayton Moore from goat to genius, Bannister is unlikely to repeat. His 4.20 K/9 will only fly with a ground ball rate better than his 42% in 2007. Luke Hochevar, the kid that was drafted three times and only settled for first overall, should be a factor by year end. This won’t be a tough rotation to break into.

Bullpen
RHP Joakim Soria (Closer)
RHP Yasuhiko Yabuta
LHP Ron Mahay
LHP Jimmy Gobble
LHP John Bale
RHP Joel Peralta
RHP Ryan Braun

This is Ryan Z. Braun. Ryan J. Braun plays for the Brewers. I never thought I’d have to deal with another Bobby Jones situation, especially with a less generic name. Unfortunately, the Royals don’t play the Brewers in the regular season, but you can check out the March 8th tuneup for some hot Braun-on-Braun action.

Soria had a nice rookie campaign (9.78 K/9, 0.942 WHIP, 17 S). He mixes in a slow curve (average speed 73 mph) and rare change (83mph) off his average fastball (92 mph). With three solid pitches I wonder why he has never been given an opportunity as a starter. He threw a perfect game in the Mexican Winter League just days after being taken in the Rule 5 draft. Another Santana-type Rule 5 triumph? Probably not, but another example of the importance of that draft.

35 year-old Yabuta will try to replace David Riske, who, in 2007, gave up too many hits and walks (1.26 WHIP) to maintain a 2.45 ERA. Yabuta has been consistently good the last four years in Japan, but projecting him is voodoo soothsaying at best.

Lineup
CF David DeJesus
LF Mark Teahen
1B Billy Butler
RF Jose Guillen
3B Alex Gordon
DH Ross Gload
C John Buck
2B Mark Grudzielanek
SS Tony Pena, Jr.

If the kids make some strides, this will be a decent run scoring team. I think they’ll crush David Pinto’s 4.82 estimate. John Buck, despite decent power (.429 SLG), has never shown patience (.308 OBP) or an ability to make contact (.222 BA). He’s not a starter in big-market baseball. 2008 will be the first step toward .500 in KC.

Minnesota Twins – 2007 Actual 79-83, Pythag 79-83

The Mississippi will flow with tears. Torii Hunter has signed with LAnaheim. Johan Santana has made his journey into the sunset, fetching a group of solid, not spectacular, prospects. Many have insisted this wasn’t enough, Smith should have held his cards or folded early. In reality, he had no choice. The player held too much power with his no-trade clause and ability to block an in-season deal. The real blame should fall on Terry Ryan, who sacrificed future flexibility to sign Johan to a 4/40M deal before 2005. Considering all factors, Smith did pretty well. He held out as long as he could, but recognized the price was falling and pulled the trigger. The alternative, Johan heading into the season as a Twin, would be an enormous failure.

Rotation
LHP Francisco Liriano
RHP Scott Baker
RHP Boof Bonser
RHP Livan Hernandez
RHP Kevin Slowey

The dramatic improvement in ligament-replacement surgery has changed the game since Dr. Frank Jobe pioneered the procedure in 1974. Now, pitchers with elbow injuries make full recoveries 93% of the time. The Twins insist Liriano is fully recovered, but I’ll file that under “I’ll believe it when I see it.” Even with The Prodigy at full strength, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser and Kevin Slowey will be responsible for three-fifths of the starts. They weren’t good last year and the status quo won’t cut it. An improvement may come from Bonser, who has good stuff and is reportedly in the best shape of his career. The jury is out on how a bit of extra heft effects pitchers. Certainly good conditioning is positive, but durability may be sacrificed. He will be a good case study.

Bullpen
RHP Joe Nathan (closer)
RHP Pat Neshek
RHP Matt Guerrier
RHP Jesse Crain
LHP Dennys Reyes
RHP Juan Rincon

The bidding on Nathan will begin in 5…4…3…. He’s a premier closer and a number of teams with playoff hopes are shaky at the end of the pen. I can see Arizona, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and the Mets involved. After a dominant first half, Neshek struggled beyond July 24th. In 21 IP, he gave up 22 hits and walked 11 for a 6.23 ERA. Caveat emptor. Jessie Crain is recovering from a torn labrum and is 80% as of Feb 21, according to Rotoworld. Guerrier may be closing by June.

Lineup
CF Carlos Gomez
C Joe Mauer
LF Delmon Young
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel
2B Brendan Harris
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

The revamped Twins lineup welcomes Gomez, Young, Harris, Lamb and Everett. 55% turnover will make waves in what has been one of the most consistent rosters in baseball over the last decade. It will take me two weeks to get used to Torii in an Angels uni. Young is poised to breakout; I’m taking the over on all his projections. ZiPS has him at 4.9 RC/27. Gomez is overrated, his speed will be valuable, but he hasn’t shown the patience to lead off. I take him in the AL Central ROY below for lack of a better choice.

The fallout from Johan will hurt for years. The bottom line is, an agent wielding a no-trade clause is a death sentence for a front office. Even moreso when based on postseason voting, where a team is forced to either root against its own player or swallow the bitter pill of an NTC. In this case, the Twins could have sent Johan to Seattle for Adam Jones, but he would have blocked the deal faster than Dusty Baker ruins pitchers. It would be interesting to analyze the cost in dollars to the Twins of Johan’s NTC, but that’s a task for another day.

______________________________

Predictions:
Indians 100-62
Tigers 85-77
Royals 75-87
White Sox 74-88
Twins 68-94

That’s right, the Royals will finish ahead of the White Sox. You read it here. Their young lineup will catalyze around Alex Gordon, while Ozzie Guillen will continue to raise the bar for crazy. The Indians will be nothing short of awesome, and the Tigers will disappoint.

AL Central Top Hitter: Travis Hafner
AL Central Top Pitcher: Carsten Charles Sabathia
AL Central Rookie of the Year: Carlos Gomez
Angel Berroa Award: John Buck