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By Jimmy, 4/6/2010 11:11 am

We've brought in a consultant to help us with the 2010 predictions.

Watching the least-likable college basketball program in the country win a national championship was rather tortuous, so if my 2010 MLB predictions turn out to be laughably wrong (like, for instance, last season), I’ll blame my lapse in judgment on post-traumatic stress disorder brought on by staring at Mike Krzyzewski’s smarmy face for too long.

Coach K is apparently going to turn down a $12-15 million per year salary offer from the NJ Nets, so he can stay at Duke and continue to breed his genetically engineered army of pseudo-Mormons.  Look, Durham is a nice place and New Jersey is an open sewer, but we’re talking about an 8 figure salary.  He could live in Ocean City and fly a helicopter to work every day,  if he wanted to.  Why can’t this guy just succumb to the natural greed inherent in all Americans?  It’s OK to display human flaws.  Take the money, you lipless ferret.

On to America’s pastime.

Projected 2010 Finishes:

AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox

I know, I know.  Yankees winning the AL East and Red Sox winning the wild card, I’m not really breaking away from the herd on this one.  I’d have to guess that most people are banking on the same thing.  Do you know why that is?  It’s because the prediction makes sense.  On paper, these are clearly the two best teams in the American League.  They are too far ahead of any team in the Central or the West.  The only thing other teams can hope for is a cannibalization effect (Sox, Yanks, and Rays beating up on each other to the point that their win-loss records slip behind other wildcard contenders).

Look for the Royals to make gains, and the Tigers to disappoint.

NL Wildcard winner: Cincinnati Reds

My reach pick in the NL is the Reds, who I believe have enough starting pitching and offense to make noise in 2010.  Breakout performances from guys like Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey could make baseball’s oldest franchise the story of the summer.

ALCS: Rangers over Yankees (5 games)
NLCS: Dodgers over Cardinals (7 games)

World Series: I predict that the Texas Rangers will win the first World Series championship in the history of their franchise, beating the Dodgers in a hotly contested 7 game series.

AL Cy Young Award: Felix Hernandez (SEA – SP)
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez (NYY – 3B)
AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz (TEX – SP)

NL Cy Young Award: Tim Lincecum (SF – SP)
NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL – 1B)
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward (ATL – OF)

My NL award predictions seem bland, but Occam’s Razor applies here.  Lincecum and Pujols are too far ahead of anyone else.  I feel a little slimy after picking Heyward, since the hype machine is in full force after his debut yesterday (an actual Peter Gammons tweet from this morning: “Every day Jason Heyward looks in the mirror and asks, ‘am I the person I want to be?’ great talent, greater family”…OY VEY, GAMMO), but there aren’t many other candidates for RoY in the NL.  I suppose Pittsburgh’s Pedro Alvarez could give him a run for his money.

Other predictions:

• Comeback players of the year:  Carlos Quentin (CHI, OF), Anibal Sanchez (FLA, SP)
• Managers of the year: Ron Washington (TEX), Dusty Baker (CIN)
• First managers fired: Bob Geren (OAK), Bud Black (SD)

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By Jimmy,

HoF'er Jimmy Collins, considered by many to be the greatest pre-WWII third baseman.

After months of dismal winter highlighted by earthquakes, flooding, and skyrocketing unemployment rates, a pleasant distraction in the form of the 2010 baseball season has arrived.  Technically, this team preview is a day late, but hopefully not a dollar short.

Arrivals: John Lackey (SP), Mike Cameron (CF), Adrian Beltre (3B), Marco Scutaro (SS), Scott Schoeneweis (RP), Scott Atchison (RP), Bill Hall (IF), Jeremy Hermida (OF)

Departures: Jason Bay (LF), Billy Wagner (RP), Takashi Saito (RP), Casey Kotchman (1B), Ales Gonzalez (SS)

You know by now that the Red Sox have undergone a significant facelift over the winter, both in terms of roster makeup and strategy.  The large number of names on that “arrivals” list sort of highlights the massive rebalancing effort undertaken by the front office in the past few months.  The one significant personnel loss is, of course, power-hitting outfielder Jason Bay.  In his absence, the Red Sox will try a different approach in 2010: an increased focus on run prevention.

Projected 2010 Starting Lineup:

Projected 2010 Bench:

As you can see by glancing at those fielding ratings juxtaposed with the hitting ratings, this Red Sox team in unlike any we have seen in recent memory.  While the gloves are obviously a strong point in comparison to the bats, the offense should be able to hold their own.  They won’t outscore the Yankees over the course of the year, but a top 5 finish in AL runs in likely.  The biggest question marks are with Adrian Beltre’s bat, and the team’s exposure to left-handed pitching (particularly Ortiz, Drew, and Ellsbury).

There might be a way to hedge the latter problem.  I made this post over the winter illustrating how Boston could actually keep Mike Lowell on the roster and use him to their advantage.  Now that the deal with the Texas Rangers has fallen through, it looks like the Sox might actually retain the veteran corner infielder’s services this season.  It might not be what Lowell wants (understandably, he’d prefer to go to a team where he would be a primary starter), but it might be the best scenario for the Red Sox, given David Ortiz’ deteriorating abilities against left-handed pitchers.

I am very bearish on Bill Hall, however, the Sox do have Jed Lowrie on the DL.  Lowrie will get a chance to prove himself in AAA, and if he heats up in Pawtucket while Hall struggles up here, a change will be made.

Projected 2010 Rotation:

The front three is as strong as any other in the major leagues.  The question marks come after John Lackey’s turn in the rotation.  Tim Wakefield is the king of the league average 100 ERA+ performance, which would normally be palatable from a 4th or 5th starter.  However, his age and health raise concerns, as a 40+ ballplayer’s abilities could erode at any time. Timmy could see a sharp decline in performance, and when it happens, his effectiveness is probably gone for good.  To his credit, he did look fine in the spring.  Clay Buchholz’ talent is not in question, but his ability to successfully challenge MLB hitters on a consistent basis has yet to be proved.

For now, I’ll keep Daisuke Matsuzaka out of the equation.  He’s going to make a few rehab starts in the minors before making his 2010 MLB debut, which means a few weeks on the shelf, at minimum.  If he does return and proves to be ineffective, his 2010 campaign will go a lot like 2009: a long, frustrating shell game between the DL and various minor league affiliates.

Projected 2010 Bullpen:

The Sox bullpen takes a step after Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, two reliable set-up arms, leave as free-agents.  They are replaced by Scott Atchison, a wild card who had moderate success in Japan these past two years, and Scott Schoenewies, a pitcher who might have some marginal use in situational “LOOGY” roles.  I’m assuming that Atchison performs at the level of an average AL middle reliever, since we really don’t have too much to go on.  While the back end of the bullpen is fairly secure with the combination of Papelbon, Bard, and Ramirez, the early bullpen could prove to be a weakness if a starter can’t go beyond 5 or so innings.

For a team playing in one of the more notorious hitting environments in the game, shifting from an offensive focus to a pitching/defense focus could prove to be a difficult transition.  On paper, the team does not have the raw talent to match New York, but they aren’t far off.  The Sox will need to stay healthy and avoid any significant regression in order to win baseball’s strongest division, the American League East.  naturally, the Sox come up with the second highest team score out of all the squads I previewed.

Team Score: 7.56

As always, the Red Sox will field a competitive team, and at the very least, they will provide us with some long-awaited entertainment for the next 6 months.

Next: league predictions (standings, awards, World Series winners)

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By Jimmy, 3/31/2010 9:41 am

Okay.  It has become painfully apparent that I’m not going to be able to preview every MLB team before the season begins, so I’ve decided to skip ahead to the two most relevant teams (from our perspective).  Once I finish the Red Sox, I’ll post the season predictions, power rankings, etc.

Western MA native Happy Jack Chesbro holds the "modern day" record for wins in a season (41 in 1904).

I don’t recall most of the details, but I vaguely remember the Yankees being pretty good last year.  This wasn’t much of a surprise, given the amount of talent they acquired during an unprecedented spending spree over the winter.  First baseman Mark Teixeira earned every penny of his gigantic salary in year 1, C.C. Sabathia was consistently good, and A.J. Burnett performed basically as expected.  These acquisitions put NY over the top in 2009.  Let’s take a look at how 2010 Yanquis are shaping up:

Arrivals: Curtis Granderson (CF), Nick Johnson (1B), Javier Vasquez (P), Chan Ho Park (P), Randy Winn (OF), Marcus Thames (OF)

Departures: Johnny Damon (OF), Hideki Matsui (DH), Chien-Ming Wang (P), Jose Molina (C)

Projected Starting Lineup:

Projected Bench:

There’s really not too many weaknesses to pick apart here.  Some guys are getting old, but their production hasn’t slowed down to the point that you’d expect a major regression in 2010.  Posada, in particular, is a concern, but the Yankees’ minor league system is hemorrhaging catching prospects.  The left side of the infield is shaky defensively, but both the SS and the 3B make up for it at the plate.  The three headed monster in LF will be a step back from Johnny Damon’s 2009 production, but the acquisition of Curtis Granderson (who should enjoy the little league RF porch) will make up for Damon’s loss.

Projected pitching staff:

Javier Vasquez is interesting. You could make an argument that he owes much of his success to weaker National League competition. However, even during some of his lackluster seasons in the AL, he’s had strong peripherals (and did manage to have one excellent year with the White Sox). My everlasting image of Vasquez is him giving up soul-shattering HRs to Johnny Damon in the unprecedented choke-job that was the 2004 ALCS, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and project him to be a pretty good #2 starter in 2010.

One minor weakness might be middle-relief and rotation depth.  Now that Joba Chamberlain is once again a 1-2 inning pitcher, he won’t be called upon to step in if a long-man or 6th starter is needed.  Those responsibilities will fall upon Sergio Mitre and Chan-Ho Park, neither of whom inspires much confidence at this stage of their careers.  Still, the rest of the staff is strong.  I’m especially bullish on Phil Hughes and David Robertson, two guys who could break out this season.

In full disclosure, I harbor a primal hatred for this team. So, if you notice any wacky ratings, feel free to chime in and tell me where I may be off. I’ve gone over it twice, and I think I’ve been fair. It’s not much of a shock that they have the highest score out of the teams I’ve previewed thus far.

2010 team score: 7.72

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By Jimmy, 3/24/2010 9:05 am

The team's old nickname was changed in 2007. Bland focus group marketing 1, creativity & marine biology 0...

Since God has decided to punish the state of Massachusetts for our progressive beliefs by pounding us mercilessly with rain and flooding, I’ll go ahead and preview a warm weather team: the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Rays, of course, are division rivals of the Red Sox, and we’ll be seeing a lot (maybe too much) of this team over the course of the summer.

Arrivals: Kelly Shoppach (C), Hank Blalock (CIF), Rafael Soriano (RP)
Departures: Greg Zaun (C), Gabe Gross (RF), Troy Percival (RP), Jason Isringhausen (RP)

Projected 2010 Starting Lineup:

Projected 2010 Bench:

If Blalock doesn’t make the club (he’s signed to a minor league deal), infielder Sean Rodriguez will most likely be taking his spot.  The Rays are probably better off with Zobrist in RF and either Rodriguez or Brignac starting at 2B, but from what I’m seeing, a Joyce/Kapler platoon is the most likely scenario to begin the season.

The Rays starting lineup certainly looks formidable on paper.  After grading the first three players, I asked myself If I was overdoing it a bit, and I don’t really think I did.  A handful of their regulars are among the best in the game at their positions (most notably Longoria), and aside from perhaps RF, there really isn’t an offensive weak spot to pick apart.

Pitching coming next…

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By Jimmy, 3/21/2010 6:22 pm

In the 1920's, baseball outlawed the spit ball. A handful of pitchers were "grandfathered in", and allowed to continue to throw the pitch. Hall of Famer Burleigh Grimes was one of them.

Today is my first day back from Fort Myers, and thus it’s been a day of catching up on DVR’d television, unpacking and giving the sniff-test to crumpled clothes, and checking work e-mails to get a vague sense of how shitty my Monday will be.  Anyway, I’ll be going fast and furious with the team previews, which realistically will spill over into the first week or two of the regular season.  On to “Them Bums”:

Arrivals: Jamey Carroll (2B), Nick Green (Hard-Nosed Gamer)
Departures: Randy Wolf (SP), Jim Thome (1B), Brian Giles (OF)

After winning 95 games, the Dodgers had a rather disappointing offseason, losing veteran starter Randy Wolf to free agency and not doing a whole lot to make up for that loss.  Granted, the team does have some young talent that could improve from 2010, but this lackadaisical winter could prove fatal in a division where several other teams have improved.

Projected 2010 Starting Lineup:

Projected 2010 Bench:

The Dodgers might have the best offensive outfield in baseball, but they appear to have some serious defensive holes in various spots on the field, most notably our old buddy in left field.  Regardless, I’m a big Matt Kemp fan, and at the end of this season, we may be talking about him in the same way we talk about guys like Hanley Ramirez (i.e., as one of the best all-around players in the game).

Projected 2010 Pitching Staff:

That #5 starter slot is wide open at this point.  I’m penciling in Elbert, since he has much more upside than the likes of knuckleballer Charlie Haeger or Eric Stults (not to be confused with the guy from Mask).  Both the rotation and bullpen show a lot of promise, but lord help the Dodgers if someone like Russ Ortiz is counted on to fill in for a significant portion the innings Randy Wolf’s departure will free up.

The Dodgers might regress a bit from 2009, but they did win more games than anyone else in the league last season, so they should still be tough to beat.

Team Score: 7.37

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By Jimmy, 3/4/2010 10:44 am

He seems so happy (and sane) here. It's like looking at a photo of a young Senator Palpatine, before the Sith got their claws in him.

For those of you in the New England / Tri-State area who are contemplating a 3-day baseball road trip, I highly recommend making the trek out to Detroit, and following that up with stops in Cleveland and Pittsburgh (in that order).  All three stadiums are great places to watch a game, much more comfortable than the pygmy swamp gulag I have become accustomed to.

Anyway, If I were some sort of god or mystical being with unlimited powers, I would hover over Detroit and play a real life game of Sim City.  You know the drill: demolish abandoned buildings here, build parks there, implement wind power, ensure that there is adequate coverage with evenly-dispersed police stations.  Maybe I’d build a statue of myself.  Hey, nothing Stalin-esque, maybe just a 20-footer in the center of town, so people could pay their proper respects.  I don’t think that would be asking too much.

On to the baseball team.

Arrivals: LF Johnny Damon, SP Max Scherzer, RP Jose Valverde, RP Daniel Schlereth, CF Austin Jackson, RP Phil Coke, SS Adam Everett

Departures: CF Curtis Granderson, SP Edwin Jackson, RP Fernando Rodney, 1B Aubrey Huff, 2B Placido Polanco, RP Brandon Lyon

As you can see, there have been a ton of changes in Detroit, with perhaps more key-player turnover than any team in the league this offseason.  Most of the changes stem from the Granderson trade.  While that trade appears to be a very good move from a long-term standpoint, the impact on the 2010 team is something of a question mark.  See below.

Projected 2010 starting lineup:

Austin Jackson is the major wild card in this lineup, as he will be making his much-anticipated MLB debut this spring.  He was good, but not great, in AAA last season, hitting .300/.354/.405 while playing competent CF defense.  Jackson can run well, but his power never really developed like Yankee fans hoped it would.  Now that he’s 23-years-old, I think we pretty much know what to expect from him.

Aside from another rookie, Scott Sizemore, the rest of the lineup should be familiar to most observers.  The offense appears to be heavily concentrated in the middle of the order, with one elite slugger and a handful of decent hitters to support him, but there are few guys here that shouldn’t be counted on for too much production in 2010.

To be continued (pitching)

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By Jimmy, 3/3/2010 10:24 am

A living, breathing symbol of the incompetence of HoF voters.

A few years ago, I briefly had a roommate from Cincinnati.  Nice girl.  Redhead.  Anyway, one Saturday afternoon she asks me if I would like to try a “Cincinnati Chili”.  Now, I had never heard of Cincinnati Chili at that point, and to be honest, I wasn’t sure if it was a type of dish or one of those things you find on urbandictionary.com.  Either way, my answer was the same: yes.

Let’s just say, I was not a fan at all.  Midwesterners do a lot of things right (BBQ, hot dogs, agriculture, etc.) but they should not be allowed to mess around with pasta.

On to the original professional baseball team, the Red Legs:

Arrivals: 2B Aaron Miles, SS Orlando Cabrera, P Aroldis Chapman
Departures: RP Ramon Ramirez, CF Willy Taveras

Projected 2010 Lineup:

Projected 2010 Bench:

I can’t help but laugh at some of these player profiles you read online.  Yeah, I realize I’m not exactly Red Smith myself, but please tell me if this profile on Drew Stubbs is not completely ludicrous:

“With Stubbs having the inside track to become the full time center fielder, he could make for a nice late-round surprise come Draft Day. His performance in just a brief stint last season showed that he had the power of a Hanley Ramirez and has the ability to be a speedier version of Nate Mclouth (sic).”

The first sentence?  Sure, fine. he’ll probably start.  The second sentence is just completely off the wall.  Nothing Stubbs has done in the minors or majors indicates that he will ever hit as well as Nate McLouth, and the idea that he could even dream of approaching Hanley’s power (career .531 SLG%) is hilarious.

The top of this lineup is fine, and the bottom should hold their own (even if Stubbs fails to hit like Hanley Ramirez) in a division that is not as strong as it once was.

Projected 2010 Rotation:

The Reds actually have a fairly deep core of starting pitchers, if you consider staff ace Edinson Volquez, who will return at some point after the All-Star break, and Cuban flamethrower Aroldis Chapman, who will probably begin his career in the minors but will not be denied for long.  The 5th spot is up for grabs; consider Owings a default entry, as he is one of the more experienced guys competing for that job.

Projected 2010 Bullpen:

The bullpen is far from decided at this point. Maloney and Lincoln will both be vying for that 5th rotation spot, but neither one is a guarantee to make the staff.  Herrera, Rhodes, and Masset all were excellent in 2009 with microscopic ERAs, but none of them are really dominant relievers, and should probably bet on regressing to the mean this season.

Overall, Cincinnati has a solid young team with plenty of guys who could break out.  If lightning strikes in the right spots, I could see them becoming a Cindarella contender in the NL Central.

Team score: 6.71

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By Jimmy, 2/23/2010 10:36 am

Anyone know where I can get my hands on one of these?

As we enter a new decade, the Pittsburgh Pirates are clearly the diseased runts of Major League Baseball.  They have a terrific stadium, a great city (if you’ve never been there, check it out), and one of the oldest franchises in the league.  It’s getting to the point where Obama should just step in and socialize these guys, am I right?  It’s not that the Pirates are “too big to fail”, but they are too historic to fail.  The Dutchman pictured to the right is furiously spinning in his grave at the sight of Pittsburgh’s annual display of futility.

Will their fortunes finally turn in 2010?  Let’s see.

Arrivals: OF Ryan Church, IF Bobby Crosby, RP Brendan Donnelly, RP Octavio Dotel, 2B Akinori Iwamura

Departures: RP Matt Capps, RP Jesse Chavez

I like what Pittburgh is doing here after the inevitable loss of their closer (Capps) to free agency.  They didn’t go too crazy trying to find a replacement to step in as closer, instead, they signed long-time setup man Dotel for a bargain price.  Also, the acquisitions of Church, Crosby, Donnelly, and Iwamura all fill holes on the roster at minimal cost.  From a pure transactional standpoint, the Pirates have improved.  Now, onto the projections:

Projected Starting Lineup:

There’s certainly lots of potential in the lineup.  McCutchen is the most promising of the bunch, but LaRoche, Clement, and Milledge were all considered upper-echelon prospects not too long ago, and each one has the potential to break out a bit in 2010.  Garrett Jones was on fire in his rookie year, but we can expect him to come down to earth this year.

Bench:

Walker and Church are both guys who could take over easily if someone like LaRoche or Milledge struggles.  The rest of the bench is rather thin.

Projected Rotation:

Bullpen:

If the Pirates do lose 90-100 games again in 2010, it will be primarily due to their pitching staff.  They have a starting lineup full of guys who could be fun to watch this year, but their rotation lacks any true power pitcher, and their bullpen beyond Hanrahan and Dotel is really a mess.

If anything, they appear to be on the right track, as they do have an impressive number of under-25 guys who are promising.  Again, it’s tough to look at the big picture this early without reviewing other teams, but I think finishing in second to last place in the NL Central might be a practical goal for this young squad.

Team score: 6.09

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By Jimmy, 2/20/2010 12:28 pm

Dean Chance won the 1964 AL Cy Young Award, leading the league in ERA and innings pitched.

We’ll kick off our 2010 MLB team previews with the squad that eliminated the Red Sox from the ALDS last season.  The Angels have formed a solid rivalry with the Sox in the last decade, complete with playoff drama and beanball wars.  While they still seem to garner the whole “scrappy/small-ball” image from the media, the Angels won 97 games last year primarily on the strength of their offense, as they were 2nd in the American League in runs scored.

Additions: DH Hideki Matsui, SP Joel Pineiro, RP Fernando Rodney, RP Brian Stokes
Departures: SP John Lackey, 3B Chone Figgins, OF Vlad Guerrero, SP Kelvim Escobar, RP Darren Oliver, OF Gary Matthews Jr.

Obviously, the offseason hasn’t been very kind to these poor scrappy Angels.  Their best pitcher, their most valuable position player, and their most popular veteran all left via free agency.  Hideki Matsui might be a marginal improvement over Guerrero at the plate, but the losses of Lackey and Figgins will be a little more difficult to fill.

Before I list the projected starters, keep in mind that this batting order is how I’d write it if I were managing the team (in other words, don’t read too much into the batting order).

Starters:

Bench:

One of the assumptions I’m making is a breakthrough year from Howie Kendrick, a guy who has the makings of a batting champion but hasn’t taken the leap yet.  I’m expecting slight regressions from Kendry Morales and Juan Rivera.  It’s difficult to say this with any certainty before I’ve run the other projections, but I think the Angels’ bench is among the strongest in the American League, with Izturis and Mathis being guys who could start on a lot of MLB teams.

Rotation:

Bullpen:

I feel that substituting Joel Pineiro for John Lackey is a massive, massive downgrade that will really hurt the Angels’ efforts to prevent runs from scoring.  Their bullpen will improve a little with the additions for Rodney and Stokes, but it still lacks depth.

The Angels are enjoying a 3-year streak of winning their division championship.  A four-peat will not come easy in 2010.

Team Score: 6.85

Comments (4)

By Jimmy, 2/19/2010 6:17 pm

We’re about to hit the ground running on our annual 2010 MLB team previews, and I just wanted to give an introduction to my methodology before actually posting the previews.

My approach is similar to the same one I used last year; an attempt to isolate run scoring and run prevention via grades given to the position players, rotation, and bullpen.  This year, I’ve decided to go with a numerical 1-10 projection scale, since it’s a bit more transparent than the A-F grades I gave last year.  The scale works like this: based on the numerical grade I assign each player, I am projecting them to be a certain type of player in 2010. 

• 10- Elite players.  Only a dozen or so offensive 10’s exist, maybe five starting pitchers in all of MLB are 10’s.  10’s are typically slam dunk Hall of Famers if they remain healthy. Example: Albert Pujols.
• 9 – A great player.  Players who are strong All-Star candidates, though not quite elite.  Possible Hall of Famers if they are lucky enough to have a long career without too many injuries. Example: Mark Teixeira 
• 8 – A very good player.  Someone who might be a fringe All-Star, but they have some minor yet noticeable holes in their game that keep them out of the top categories.  Example: Josh Beckett
• 7 - A good player.   Definitely above average, someone who is a household name amongst casual fans, but not an All-Star.  Example: Shin Soo-Choo
• 6 – An above average player.  Basically, your typical starter on a bad team.  Your girlfriend probably doesn’t know who he is. Example: Kevin Kouzmanoff
• 5 – An average MLB player.  A great guy to have on the bench.  You don’t want too many 5’s in your starting lineup, but one or two are fine stopgaps. Example: Bobby Crosby
• 4 - A below-average major leaguer.  Clearly someone you do not want seeing too much playing time.  A competent bench option, someone who won’t embarrass himself if called upon to fill in for injured starters.  Example: Eric Hinske
• 3 - An AAAA caliber player.  If he has option years left, he’ll probably be traveling quite a bit over the course of the year.  Would be a regular player only on a bad team.  Example: Bill Hall
• 2 – Your typical AAA caliber player.  Will have great difficulty competing at the MLB level.  Someone who would usually be summoned when rosters expand on September 1st.  Example: Alex Cora
• 1 - A player who has no business being in the Major Leagues.  He is on the roster for one of two reasons: a) the team airplane pulled a Marshall University, or b) he is the owner’s godson.   Example: Nick Green               

The ratings for a projected starting lineup on a fictional team would probably look something like this:

And the bench would also be graded:

You might consider this a cop-out, but I’m refraining from grading catchers on their fielding skills.  There’s just not enough data readily available, and I refuse to go by CS rates alone (since that’s such a small part of what actually happens behind the plate).

Bench scores would be weighted as 1/5 of the total offensive score. 

We would then move on to the starting pitchers:

Of course, pitchers would only receive one grade.  The final piece would be the bullpen:

To make things simple, I’m considering every non closer a middle-reliever (MR).  Each team will probably have one closer (CL), unless the role is completely undecided, a la the 2003 Red Sox.

Run prevention is 50% of the team score, with the other 50% being run production.  90% of run production is pitching, with 10% being defense (the 90/10 thing is completely pulled out of my ass.  I used 95/5 last year, and in retrospect, it seems like I undervalued fielding.  This is all trial by error).  2/3 of pitching is determined by the starters’ score, with the remaining 1/3 coming from the bullpen. 

That’s pretty much how the system works.  The above team, while scoring a 9.9 in a melodiousness scale, would rate as a 6.54 on the field.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 4/6/2009 12:36 pm

Welcome back, your dreams were your ticket out.
Welcome back to that same old place that you laughed about.
Well the names have all changed since you hung around,
But those dreams have remained and they’re turned around.

-John Sebastian

Rotation:

Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jon Lester
Tim Wakefield
Brad Penny

The front three of the rotation rivals that of any other team.  A key to Beckett’s success will be pitch selection, as the mid-90’s fastball found a few too many bats at times in 2008.  In 2007, when he was in the running for the Cy Young, Beckett used the curveball roughly 25% of the time.  If he can once again find an equilibrium between the two pitches, he’ll be one of the best pitchers in the game.  Lester and Matsuzaka both had stellar campaigns last year, and even a modest decline would have them among the best #2 and #3 starters in the league.

Here is where it gets a little hairy.  Tim Wakefield returns to the rotation, and I have a bad feeling about it.  The difference in speed between his fastball and his knuckler are at all time lows, making the deception factor less effective for him.  While people seem to buy the myth that he can pitch until age 73, this guy still relies on his fastball to supplement the knuckleball, and once he loses the ability to throw the pitch at least 70 MPH, he could lose all effectiveness.  It could happen as soon as this year, and it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.

With Brad Penny, you just hope he can stay healthy and be league average.  He looked good in ths spring, and fortunately, so has Clay Buchholz.  Clay will be waiting in AAA Pawtucket, and should be summoned at the first sign of trouble with Penny.  The Sox also have Justin Mastretson available for spot starts (a guy I feel has the potential to be a star in the mold of Derek Lowe) and prospect Michael Bowden isn’t too far away.  The versatility is there, but the back-end of the rotation might take some lumps in the early going.

Rotation Grade: B+

Bullpen:

Jonathan Papelbon (CL)
Hideki Okajima
Ramon Ramirez
Manny Delcarmen
Takashi Saito
Javier Lopez
Justin Masterson

The additions of Ramirez and Saito turn a good bullpen into a phenomenal one.  Top to bottom, it’s probably the best bullpen in the game, and probably the best Red Sox bullpen I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.

Bullpen Grade: A

Offense:

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia
3. DH David Ortiz
4. 1B Kevin Youkilis
5. OF Jason Bay
6. 3B Mike Lowell
7. OF J.D. Drew
8. SS Jed Lowrie
9. C Jason Varitek

Bench:

C George Kottaras
OF Rocco Baldelli
SS Nick Green
1B/OF Chris Carter

The main concern here is the stroke of Lowell and Ortiz, two key hitters who are recovering from possibly debilitating injuries.  They each hit for decent power in the spring (.488 and .500 SLG% respectively), and we hope that will carry forward.  If Ellsbury manages to improve his plate discipline a bit and nudge that OBP up into the .350 territory, he’ll be on his way to becoming one of the better lead-off guys in the game.  Pedroia, Youkilis, Bay, and Drew are all among the best offensive producers at their positions, and Lowrie should be above average.  Varitek…well…we can hope that he plays less against right-handed pitchers, but we’re not really sure how George Kottaras will be in that role.  Still, one weak link in the lineup isn’t a bad deal for a team looking to slightly improve upon their run scoring capabilities.  The bench is pretty good, as Carter and Baldelli provide a threat from both sides of the plate.

Offensive Grade: A-

Fielding: The one wild card here is Jed Lowrie at shortstop.  He was excellent in a relatively small sample last year.  The rest of the infield is excellent, CF and RF are both decent, and LF is below average (but a monumental improvement over the last occupant of that position).  Varitek is essentially the same as before (good backstop, sub-par arm).

Fielding Grade: B+

Overall Grade: 85.6 (A-)

Yeah, as it turns out, the Red Sox score the highest in my rankings.  Am I showing bias here?  I think (hope) that I properly discounted the rotation for their potential flaws in my “B+” grade, and the lineup is a Taylor Teagarden type away from being a solid “A”.  I don’t see many flaws in the bullpen, and defensively the team appears to be among the best in the game.  Am I optimistic?  We shall see, over the next few months.

Update: today’s game is rained out, and will be played at 4:00.  It’s not really raining here in Boston, but I suppose they wanted nicer weather for whatever dog & pony show they have planned at Fenway.

Next up: Opening Day Power Rankings (based on the scores I assigned here).

Comments (1)

By Jimmy,

When C.C. Sabathia lumbers onto that unfortunate pitcher’s mound in Baltimore this afternoon, he carries with him the weight of New York’s collective angst.  After failing to make the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, the franchise went into full assault mode and stockpiled some expensive weapons of mass destruction.  If this team fails to wash off the stink of third place after the Steinbrenner brothers effectively flicked their middle fingers at the world economy, the back-page tabloids will not hold back. Nor should they.

Rotation:
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. A.J. Burnett
4. Andy Pettitte
5. Joba Chamberlain

Factoring out injury risk, it could be the best rotation in baseball.  Even in the likely event that someone like A.J. Burnett goes down, you have promising starter Phil Hughes waiting to pick up the slack.  I’m not relishing the idea of watching the Sox face CC-Joba-Burnett in a three game series.  Health concerns are present for a couple of these guys, but that’s really the only shortcoming here.

Rotation Grade: A-

Bullpen:
Mariano Rivera (CL)
Damaso Marte
Brian Bruney
Phil Coke
Edwar Ramirez
Jose Veras
Jonathan Albaladejo

Rivera’s a freak of nature who had his career best ERA+ at age 38, so we’ll assume that the 9th inning is signed, sealed, and delivered once again.  Ramirez and Veras are both promising arms, and I’m betting they are eventually assigned to become Rivera’s setup men.  The guys actually setting up Mariano (Bruney and Marte) are questionable. Bruney, while overpowering, sometimes has serious trouble finding the plate, and Marte has not proven to be effective since returning from injury.  However, there’s enough talent in the pen to hide the failures of 1 or 2 guys.

Bullpen: B+

Offense:
1. SS Derek Jeter
2. LF Johnny Damon
3. 1B Mark Teixeira
4. DH Hideki Matsui
5. C Jorge Posada
6. 2B Robinson Cano
7. RF Xavier Nady
8. 3B Cody Ransom (A-Rod in late May)
9. CF Brett Gardner

Bench:
C Jose Molina
OF/1B Nick Swisher
OF Melky Cabrera
INF Angel Berroa

Things certainly look a lot different without you-know-who in the lineup.  The key to the season is probably Cano, a guy who can either hit like Ryne Sandberg or Scott Fletcher.  Teixeira should be a monster, especially since the new stadium has the same Little League right field wall as the old one.  Posada, Jeter, Damon, and Matsui are all guys who are in the midst of declining career trajectories, and while they should all be decent offensive producers, the wheels could fall off and major injuries could occur at any time (especially in the cases of Posada and Matsui).  I’ll grade them assuming A-Rod is back in late May as expected, and is suffering no ill effects from his injury (or whatever else he has going on in his life).

Offensive grade: B

Fielding:  Minor league data is inconclusive on “Poor Man’s Ellsbury” out in CF, but we do know he’s fast, so we’ll assume that he can track down a good amount of balls out there.  Cody Ransom is a SS by trade, and thus he’ll probably make a decent 3B until A-Rod returns (and A-Rod is about average these days).  Teixeria is a great fielder at 1B. Cano can be good, but the data and the anecdotal evidence suggests that he has more of a negative defensive impact than a positive one.  The corner outfielders are below average, and the two most important positions on the field (C and SS) are extremely weak.

Fielding Grade: C+

Overall: 78.1 (B+)

Red Sox next…hopefully right around game time.

Comments Off

By Jimmy,

I’m going to try my hardest to objectively rate these next two teams while ignoring the raging inferno of hatred in my heart.

Tampa Bay Rays

Rotation:

1. James Shields
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Matt Garza
4. Andy Sonnanstine
5. David Price

Price was actually sent down to AAA, but I have a feeling he’ll get “The Longoria Treatment”.  By that, I don’t mean he’ll wed a French basketball player, rather, his stay in the minors will be very short.  I’m not the biggest Sonnanstine fan, but he’s somehow been able to get it done in Tampa.  The other three guys all range from good to excellent.  Price, from what I’ve seen from him last September/October, might be the best of the bunch. A sure fire ace, if healthy.

Rotation Grade: A-

Bullpen:

Troy Percival (CL)
Dan Wheeler
Grant Balfour
J.P. Howell
Brian Shouse
Joe Nelson
Jeff Niemann

Neither Percival nor Wheeler really impress me with their stuff, but they both seem to rise to the occasion in late inning situations. The rest of the pen, however, is pretty good.  Balfour, Howell, and Nelson are all guys who could be closer candidates on other teams, and Niemann is a solid swingman with high potential.

Bullpen grade: B+

Offense:

1. CF B.J. Upton
2. LF Carl Crawford
3. 3B Evan Longoria
4. 1B Carlos Pena
5. DH Pat Burrell
6. RF Gabe Gross
7. C Dioner Navarro
8. 2B Akinori Iwamura
9. SS Jason Bartlett

Bench:
C Shawn Riggans
INF Ben Zobrist
INF Willy Aybar
OF Gabe Kapler

Top of the order should be fine, assuming Upton manages to regain some of the power stroke he alarmingly lost in 2008.  The bottom of the order will be a weakness, as will their paper-thin bench (hello Gabe Kapler).

Offensive Grade: B

Fielding: Very strong.  Upton was a terrible infielder when he first arrived on the scene, but he played quite well in CF last year.  The infield and outfield are both terrific in Tampa Bay.

Fielding Grade: A

Overall Grade: 79.8 (B+)

Later this morning: NY

This afternoon: The Sox.

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 4/5/2009 11:52 am

We’re rounding out the remaining team grades, with the exception of the “Big Three” in the AL East.

Atlanta Braves

I wasn’t the biggest fan of the Derek Lowe acquisition, and I haven’t been blown away by what I’ve read about Kenshin Kawakami, but when it comes to building a starting rotation, the Braves management regime deserves the benefit of the doubt.  If future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones stays healthy, he’ll be a run-producing machine and will adequately compensate for the shortfalls of guys like Jeff Francoeur and Garret Anderson.

Rotation: B
Bullpen: C
Offense: B-
Fielding: C+
OVERALL: 66.8 (B-)

Chicago Cubs

The only weakness in Chicago’s lineup is the 9th spot (the pitcher).  With Rich Harden apparently healthy, the window for breaking that 100+ year drought is wide open.

Rotation: A-
Bullpen: B-
Offense: A-
Fielding: C-
OVERALL: 82 (B+)

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The only significant changes to the 2008 team were essentially swapping Mark Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez for Bobby Abreu and Brian Fuentes. So, the Angels head into the season a little weaker than last year.  Fortunately, they are in a weak division.

Rotation: B
Bullpen: A-
Offense: C+
Fielding: B-
OVERALL: 68.6 (B-)

New York Mets

Last season, the Mets were cursed with a terrible bullpen, but they certainly remedied that over the winter.  I’m not on board with the amount of money spent on “K-Rod”, but he and J.J. Putz provide an immediate improvement over their one true weakness from the previous year.  At the very least, the move will help them immensely in the short term.

Rotation: B-
Bullpen: A-
Offense: B+
Fielding: B+
OVERALL: 77.2 (B+/B)

Pittsburgh Pirates

It’s good to see Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen both with regular MLB roles.  Well, good for me.  Bad for Pirates fans.

Rotation: C-
Bullpen: D+
Offense: C-
Fielding: C+
OVERALL: 46.6 (C-)

St. Louis Cardinals

All eyes will be on former ace Chris Carpenter, as he is apparently healthy heading into the season.  Without him, the rotation goes from decent to questionable.

Rotation: B-
Bullpen: B
Offense: A-
Fielding: C-
OVERALL: 77.1 (B+/B)

Texas Rangers

One of the benefits of growing up in Johnston, Rhode Island: I can spell “Saltalamacchia” without looking it up.  Salty and Chris Davis should begin to make names for themselves in 2009, but rookie shortstop Elvis Andrus might be the worst regular hitter in the Major Leagues this year.

Rotation: D-
Bullpen: B-
Offense: B-
Fielding: D+
OVERALL: 53.7 (C)

Washington Nationals

They’ll score quite a few runs.  Alas, they will yield quite a few more.

Rotation: D
Bullpen: D+
Offense: B
Fielding: C
OVERALL: 55.9 (C)

Next up, the Rays.

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By Jimmy, 4/3/2009 12:16 pm

Chicago White Sox 2009 Team Preview

Rotation: Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Jose Contreras, Bartolo Colon
Bullpen: Bobby Jenks, Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Clayton Richard, Jeff Marquez, D.J. Carrasco

Offense:
1. SS Alexei Ramirez
2. C A.J. Pierzynski
3. LF Carlos Quentin
4. DH Jim Thome
5. RF Jermaine Dye
6. 1B Paul Konerko
7. 3B Josh Fields
8. CF Dewayne Wise
9. 2B Chris Getz

Bench: Corky Miller (C), Brent Lillibridge (INF), Wilson Betemit (INF) Brian Anderson (OF)

I guess I don’t get the wisdom of putting DeWayne Wise and his career .254 OBP (!!) in the leadoff spot, but that’s what Ozzie Guillen plans on doing.  Not that there’s really any great leadoff option here; the on-base guys in this lineup are all lumbering big-bopper types.  I can’t really see Carlos Quentin repeating the season he had last year, but there should be plenty of pop throughout the middle of the order even if he does regress.

The rotation is a little scary, especially in the back end.  John Danks could break out into a staff ace, but Mark Buehrle pitches to contact more than I would like. The one part of this team I like is the bullpen.  Several experienced hard-throwers for the late innings, and some versatile long men who can step in and start a game in the event that Bartolo Colon explodes like a pinata.

Defensively, the team is in very rough shape.  Jermaine Dye is most likely the worst RF in baseball, and DeWayne Wise does not have favorable minor league CF numbers.  Alexei Ramirez, who wasn’t a great 2B last year, will move over to SS.  The lone bright spot on the field will be Chris Getz, who flashed decent leather in the minors at 2B.

Starters: C-
Bullpen: B+
Offense: C-
Fielding: D+
OVERALL SCORE: 51.6 (C/C-)

Cleveland Indians 2009 Team Preview

Rotation: Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona, Carl Pavano, Scott Lewis, Anthony Reyes
Bullpen: Kerry Wood, Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, Joe Smith, Masa Kobayashi, Zach Jackson

Offense:
1. CF Grady Sizemore
2. 3B Mark DeRosa
3. C Victor Martinez
4. DH Travis Hafner
5. SS Jhonny Peralta
6. RF Shin-Soo Choo
7. 1B Ryan Garko
8. LF Ben Francisco
9. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera

Bench: Kelly Shoppach (C), Jamey Carroll (INF), Trevor Crowe (OF), Josh Barfield (INF)

What did Cliff Lee do different last year?  In simple terms, he became a ground ball pitcher overnight.  His GB/FB ratio for the past 5 years:

2004 0.75
2005 0.81
2006 0.68
2007 0.71
2008 1.31

More ground balls, and slightly fewer walks, turned Cliff Lee into a Cy Young Award winner.  Can he keep that up?  He hasn’t been sharp this spring, with a GO/AO ratio back under 1 and an ERA over 12, but the whole non-correlation of spring stats applies.  All I know is that the rotation quoted above will look a lot different if Lee’s carriage turns into a pumpkin this season.  I’ll peg him for a good (not great) season in 2009.

Rotation Grade: C+
Bullpen Grade: A-
Offensive Grade: B-
Fielding Grade: C
OVERALL SCORE: (67.25 B-)

Minnesota Twins 2009 Team Preview

Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow, Luis Ayala, Philip Humber, Brian Duensing

Offense:
1. CF Carlos Gomez
2. 2B Alexi Casilla
3. C Joe Mauer
4. 1B Justin Morneau
5. DH Jason Kubel
6. RF Michael Cuddyer
7. LF Delmon Young
8. 3B Joe Crede
9. SS Nick Punto

Bench: Brian Buscher (IB/3B), Brendan Harris (INF), Denard Span (OF), Mike Redmond (C)

Before Francisco Liriano was injured, his fastball was regularly sitting at 95 MPH and was complimented with a 88 MPH slider.  When he returned over a year later, the fastball was 90 MPH and the slider was around 84 MPH.  The Twins hope he can slowly get his velocity close to what it was in 2006, when he was the best rookie pitcher in baseball.  If he can even come close to that, the trio of Liriano, Baker, and Slowey will be an AL Central institution for the forseeable future.

Rotation: C+
Bullpen: B+
Offense: B-
Defense: B-
OVERALL SCORE: 66.85 (B-)

That’s it for the AL Central.  For the record, I see no real powerhouse in this division, however, I have Deroit, Cleveland, and Minnesota being very close to one another, in terms of best team in the Central (and the Royals being a couple of steps behind, but not too far).  It should be fun to see these three go at it.

Next: finishing the NL East

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By Jimmy, 4/2/2009 10:02 am

Again, my apologies if you are a fan of one of the following teams.  It’s not that I don’t care about your franchise, but…if I may quote Winston Wolf: time is of the essence.  I’d like to write a full preview of three teams in particular before Opening Day (I’m sure you can guess which teams), and for this to happen, I have to breeze through some others.  Like the career of Creighton Gubanich, these will be quick.

The following two teams are the NL West squads I have yet to cover.

Arizona Diamondbacks 2009 Team Preview:

Projected Pitching Staff:

1) Brandon Webb
2) Danny Haren
3) Max Scherzer
4) Jon Garland
5) Doug Davis

Chad Qualls
Tony Pena
Jon Rauch
Yusmeiro Petit
Scott Schoeneweis
Billy Buckner
Juan Gutierrez

Projected Hitters:
1. 2B Felipe Lopez
2. CF Chris Young
3. SS Stephen Drew
4. LF Conor Jackson
5. RF Justin Upton
6. 1B Chad Tracy
7. 3B Mark Reynolds
8. C Chris Snyder

Eric Byrnes – OF
Miguel Monteiro – C
Augie Ojeda – SS
Tony Clark – 1B
Ryan Roberts – 2B/3B

The guy everyone will be watching in that rotation is 24-year-old Max Scherzer, a phenom with a mid-90’s fastball and a 10.6 K/9 in his 2008 debut.  If Scherzer reaches his ceiling, Arizona could have the best front three in the National League.  The lineup is full of upside, as Upton and Young both have superstar potential, and Stephen Drew has established himself as one of the better shortstops in the league.  Defensively, it’s a mixed bag.  Their outfield is decent, but their infield is lackluster.

Rotation Grade: B+
Bullpen Grade: D+
Lineup Grade: B
Fielding Grade: C+
OVERALL SCORE: 70 (B/B-) 

Colorado Rockies 2009 Team Preview:

Projected Pitching Staff:

1) Aaron Cook
2) Ubaldo Jiminez
3) Franklin Morales
4) Jorge De La Rosa
5) Jason Marquis

Manny Corpas
Huston Street
Taylor Buchholz
Ryan Speier
Jason Grilli
Alan Embree
Glendon Rusch

Projected Hitters:

1. CF Ryan Spilborghs
2. SS Troy Tulowitzki
3. 1B Todd Helton
4. 3B Garrett Atkins
5. RF Brad Hawpe
6. C Chris Iannetta
7. LF Seth Smith
8. 2B Clint Barmes

Ian Stewart – 2B/3B
Yorvit Torrealba – C
Jeff Baker – 1B/OF
Dexter Fowler – OF
Omar Quintanilla – INF

We’re a long way from 2007, aren’t we?  Who would have thought that Matt Holliday’s replacement would be the immortal Seth Smith (most notably Papelbon’s final victim in Game 4 of the 2007 World Series).  If I were Clint Hurdle, I would just punt defense and start Ian Stewart at 2B, but that’s me.  That rotation might be cruising for a bruising next season, without Jeff Francis for the year and counting on a couple of shaky pitchers to keep games close in Coors Field.  Defensively, the Rockies have a good middle infield, but they are very shaky in several other key areas (RF, 3B, CF)

Rotation Grade: D
Bullpen Grade: B-
Lineup Grade: C+
Fielding Grade: C-
OVERALL SCORE: 52.6 (C) 

That does it for the NL west.  Next up, I’ll finish up the remaining AL Central teams (Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago).

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 4/1/2009 9:41 am

2009 Rotation Projection:

1. Chad Billingsley
2. Hiroki Kuroda
3. Clayton Kershaw
4. Randy Wolf
5. James McDonald

Ignore the rotation order I have up there; apparently Joe Torre decided to tab Hiroki Kuroda as the Opening Day starter.  This is probably a good topic for another post in iteslf, but: in the long run, the positioning of your 1-4 starters really doesn’t have much of an impact on anything, as they all will receive roughly the same number of starts assuming no injuries.

A lot of folks are down on this rotation, but I’m actually quite bullish here.  Billingsley is 24 and already a legitimate ace.  Kershaw could turn out just as good, if not better.  These guys will combine for over 400 Ks in 2009 if they stay healthy; they are basically Lincecum and Cain without the hype.  Kuroda is a tremendously poised veteran who keeps the ball in the park and won’t walk anyone, and Randy Wolf should be league average, although his All-Star days are long gone.  James McDonald is a promising right-hander with strong breaking stuff to complement a low 90’s fastball.  He might have some growing pains in his first full MLB season, but the Dodgers do have Jason Schmidt (remember him?) waiting in the wings if McDonald sputters.

Rotation Grade: B+

2009 Bullpen Projection:

Jonathan Broxton (CL)
Hong-Chih Kuo
Guillermo Mota
Cory Wade
Claudio Vargas
Jeff Weaver
Shawn Estes

We know the late-inning portion of this bullpen will be fine with Broxton and Kuo; the pair combined for 184 Ks in 149 relief innings last season.  Cory Wade had a tremendous rookie season, but don’t expect a repeat of it; his BABIP was .227 last year.  Still, he and Mota should be decent – not great – setup guys.  What we don’t know is how the middle-long relief will perform here.  Jeff Weaver, a guy who has been an abject failure of late, will return to the major leagues as a reliever.  Shawn Estes, another long-time starter, could be used is a LOOGY type of role.  Estes might be OK when used in this limited fashion, but I can’t expect anything good coming out of Jeff Weaver stepping on a pitcher’s mound.  Still, his role will be mitigated, and most of this pen is solid at the very least.

Bullpen Grade: B

2009 Offense Projection:

1) Raphael Furcal SS
2) Russel Martin C
3) Manny Ramirez LF
4) Matt Kemp CF
5) Andre Ethier RF
6) James Loney 1B
7) Casey Blake 3B
8) Orlando Hudson 2B

Bench:

Juan Pierre – OF
Mark Loretta – 2B/SS
Brad Ausmus – C
Doug Mientkiewicz – 1B/3B/RF
Juan Castro – INF

If you live in the Boston area, you know about the absolute hysteria surrounding Manny Ramirez.  Yes, still.  8 months after his last days in a Red Sox uniform, he is still a major conversation topic around these parts.  His final season in Boston was like a nuclear bomb, and we are still living with the toxic cloud.  The fallout has contaminated the brains of writers and radio hosts, and now they are radioactive zombies with only one thought in mind…”MANNY BAD”.

Regardless of all that, he might be the best right-handed hitter who ever lived, as crazy as that sounds.  A difficult guy to analyze given his age and his unique skill set, but you have to assume he’s still good for an OPS around .950 at the very least.  The lineup, as a whole, is excellent.  Every single guy is at least above average at his respective position.  They could use a decent infielder on the bench, but that’s a minor complaint.

Offensive Grade: A

Fielding Projection:

This team has to have one weakness, right?  Here it is.  Manny and Kemp will give the Dodgers a huge weak spot out in left-center.  The middle infield is OK, but both guys are not what they used to be.  The team nearly converted Russ Martin to a third baseman, which is telling.

Fielding Grade: D+

Maybe I’m overrating that rotation a bit, but it looks like this is the strongest team I’ve reviewed thus far.  (Note: I still have a bunch of good teams left to review).

Overall Grade: 84.1 (A-/B+)

Next up: I’ll be writing an “express” review, with several squads packed into one post.  Father Time is a merciless fellow, and Opening Day is almost here.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 3/27/2009 4:01 pm

Being a fan of Seattle’s rich musical history, it pains me to see their baseball team stuck Down in a Hole.   This is a team that really Fell on Black Days last season, going from 88 wins in 2007 to 101 losses in 2008.  Is new GM Jack Zduriencik a Better Man than the last GM, or will he be forced to wear a Crown of Thorns?  We shall see.

2009 Projected Rotation

1) Felix Hernandez
2) Erik Bedard
3) Jarrod Washburn
4) Brandon Morrow
5) Carlos Silva

In a Nutshell, this is a rotation with some top heavy talent but serious injury risks.  King Felix Hernandez is turning 23 in April, and will have No Excuses; he should emerge as one of the top 3 or 4 starters in the American League.  Erik Bedard has the durability of a swatch of Corduroy, but is terrific when healthy.  Washburn and Morrow are both above average pitchers for their respective slots.  Silva’s an interesting case, and his 2009 performance is a true Superunknown.  Last year he was absolutely terrible, but he still has that pinpoint control which can keep the team in games.  If one of the starters is injured, Ryan Rowland-Smith will be a suitable replacement.

Rotation Grade: B

Projected 2009 Bullpen

Chad Cordero (CL)
David Aardsma
Miguel Batista
Roy Corcoran
Tyler Walker
Cesar Jiminez
Mark Lowe

This bullpen will leave many Mariners fans sitting in the Angry Chair.  Chad Cordero, their best reliever by far, is out until mid-May.  I’m rooting for old friend David Aardsma to win the interim closer role, but he’s not exactly Firpo Marberry, and it’s all really up in the air.  Miguel Batista is just terrible, walking more guys than he struck out last year.  Corcoran and Jiminez are both promising pitchers, but they aren’t really late-inning types at this point.

Bullpen Grade: D-

2009 Offensive Projection:

1) Ichiro Suzuki RF
2) Jose Lopez 2B
3) Adrian Beltre 3B
4) Ken Griffey Jr. DH
5) Yuniesky Betancourt SS
6) Russell Branyan 1B
7) Wladimir Balentien LF
8) Kenji Johjima C
9) Franklin Gutierrez CF

Bench:

Jeff Clement – C
Endy Chavez – OF
Ronny Cedeno – INF
Mike Morse – OF
Mike Sweeney – 1B/DH

The folks at Baseball Prospectus feel that superstar Ichiro Suzuki’s best days are in the Rearviewmirror, and that he’s destined for his first season without 200 hits or a .300 batting average.  Without his production, the Seattle offense could find themselves in the midst of a Hunger Strike.  Adrian Beltre, a solidly above-average third baseman whose 48 HR days are Far Behind, is likely their best hitter now.  Branyan is an intriguing sort of player; a guy who swings as hard as he can at a handful of pitches and hits one 500 feet on occasion.   All I Know is that this lineup will have Seattle pundits writing columns laced with Judgement, Rage, Retribution, and Thyme.  It could get ugly.

Offensive Grade: D

Fielding Projection:

If it Smells Like Teen Spirit in here, it’s because Seattle’s fielders are as nimble as 15-year-old female Olympic gymnasts.  Their outfield defense might be the best in the AL, and their infielders aren’t slouches, either.  A bright spot for a team with little to be optimistic about.

Fielding Grade: A

Playing in Safeco Field will be a double-edged sword for the Mariners this season.  They will prevent plenty of runs with their talented rotation and flashy gloves, but that offense will get about as much action as An Elderly Woman Behind The Counter in a Small Town.  If this team performs anything like they did last season (they’ll probably improve a bit, but they might not), manager Don Wakamatsu could quickly become the proverbial Man in the Box.

Overall Grade: 48 (C-)

Okay, sorry about all the grunge puns.  I’m sure they became tiresome after the second paragraph or so.  Never again, I promise.  Next up: Mannywood!

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 3/25/2009 12:13 pm

Thinking about this team always gets me wondering about the following scenario:

Imagine you wake up tomorrow morning, pick up the Boston Globe or log onto SoSH or whatever your initial news outlet might be, and you see the following headline: “Selig, Henry Agree to Move Red Sox to National League”.  The article goes on to describe how Bud Selig proposed moving baseball’s most popular franchise to the NL for the purpose of increasing attendance in floundering NL East stadiums like Washington and Florida, and Selig/Lucchino agreed to the move because they despise the Yankees and do not wish to face them any longer, and the Red Sox will play in the National League starting in 2010.

How pissed would you be?  No more games against the hated Yankees or upstart Rays.  Enjoy your new rivalry with…the Mets?  Yawn.  Oh, and let’s not forget about the “Natural Rivalry” with the Atlanta Braves.  I cannot imagine what it must have been like for those Milwaukee Brewers fans who woke up one morning and learned that they would no longer be in the same division as New York, Boston, Cleveland and Detroit.

2009 Projected Rotation:

1) Yovanni Gallardo
2) Dave Bush
3) Manny Parra
4) Jeff Suppan
5) Braden Looper

Obviously, the rotation here will take a hit after losing two of the best pitchers in the game to free agency (assuming Ben Sheets doesn’t return).  However, they do get a boost from a healthy Yovanni Gallardo, a 23-year-old with the stuff of an ace.  After Gallardo, the guy I like best in this rotation is Manny Parra.  A stocky lefty with a 4-pitch arsenal, he’s been plagued by a high BABIP in both of his MLB seasons.  If he can command the ball a bit better, the Brewers could have a solid #2 on their hands.  Looper and Bush are decent ground ball guys who will keep the defense on their toes but should keep the Brew Crew in the game.  Jeff Suppan, on the other hand, is one of those cases where I’m shocked that he’s still in the major leagues (the Darren Oliver Effect).

Rotation Grade: C-

2009 Projected Bullpen:

Trevor Hoffman (CL)
Carlos Villanueva
Seth McClung
Mitch Stetter
David Riske
Todd Coffee
Tim Dillard
Chase Wright

Hoffman is a future Hall of Famer who should be able to provide one more year as a solid closer.  However, as with any player over 40, you have to be prepared for the wheels to fall off at any time.  Villanueva and McClung are both versatile guys who can start when needed, but it looks like Milwaukee plans to use them as late-inning relievers in the short term.  Stetter is the resident lefty on the staff, and will probably be utilized in a LOOGY role.  Dillard is the reliever with the most upside of this group, a 25-year-old with a hard fastball/slider combo.  Riske, Coffee, and Wright are all weak options.  (Wright’s claim to fame is yielding 4 straight home runs to the Red Sox while pitching for the Yankees).

Bullpen Grade: C-

2009 Projected Offense:

1) Richie Weeks – 2B
2) J.J. Hardy – SS
3) Ryan Braun – LF
4) Prince Fielder – 1B
5) Corey Hart – RF
6) Bill Hall – 3B
7) Mike Cameron – CF
8) Jason Kendall – C

Bench:

Tony Gwynn Jr. – OF
Trot Nixon – LF/RF
Craig Counsell – 2B/SS
Mike Rivera – C
Mike Lamb – 1B/3B

Top to bottom, it should be one of the best lineups in the NL. Braun and Fielder are two of the biggest run producers in the league.  Hart, Weeks, and Hardy are among the best at their positions offensively.  Cameron is above average, and Hall and Kendall should be average at the very least.  The bench leaves a bit to be desired, as I wouldn’t want any of those guys seing serious playing time (with the exception of promising backup catcher Mike Rivera), but most of the Milwaukee lineup is young and healthy.

Offensive Grade: B+

Fielding Projection:

The Milwaukee infield can be split up into two halves: the “good side” and the “bad side”.  Can you guess which one is the “bad side”? If you were to guess the side with the 270 pound man, you would be correct.  The outfield is just OK.  While Ryan Braun was a terrible, terrible third baseman, he’s only slightly below average in LF.  Cameron’s reputation as a Gold Glove outfielder proceeds itself, but he’s 36 years old and has been inconsistent of late.  Corey Hart is average in RF, but he’ll probably improve once he stops wearing his sunglasses at night.  Kendall is still solid despite his age.

Defensive Grade: C-

The Brewers will probably take a step back in 2009, a fate that can only be expected after losing two All-Star starting pitchers.  Gallardo’s return to the staff will mitigate the blow a bit, but if this team wants to return to the playoffs, they’ll need a 2004 Manny-Ortiz type performance out of Braun and Fielder.

Overall Grade: 63.5 (B-/C+)

Next up: We visit a region known for salmon, suicide, and an evil coffee empire.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 3/23/2009 2:07 pm

My apologies for the long delay between posts.  My skin is cracked and blistered from countless hours spent under the merciless sun of southwest Florida.  I can’t really complain, though. Anyway, let’s get right to it:

Projected 2009 Rotation:

1) Jeremy Guthrie
2) Koji Uehara
3) Mark Hendrickson
4) Adam Eaton
5) Alfredo Simon

Guthrie and Uehara are both locks to open the year in the rotation, but those last 3 spots are really up in the air.  The Orioles have the promising Rich Hill rehabbing from injury, but chances are he won’t be ready in April.  David Pauley and Danys Baez are also in the mix.  As you can see, this rotation is a major weakness.  To put it quantitatively, the sum of the projected VORP for these 5 pitchers in roughly 450 projected innings (as determined by Baseball Prospectus) is less that the projected VORP of Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon in 60 projected innings.  The AL East is stocked with powerful lineups that will feast on these guys like hunger-crazed hyennas tearing apart a bloated hippo carcass.

Rotation Grade: F+

Projected 2009 Bullpen:

George Sherrill (CL)
Chris Ray
James Johnson
Jamie Walker
Dennis Sarfate
Matt Albers
Heyden Penn

The bullpen picture is a bit more promising than the rotation, as the late innings should be in decent shape in the hands of Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson.  Walker was once a decent bullpen guy, but had a terrible season in 2008 and is turning 37 in July.  The rest of the pen consists of mop-up guys who are not quite good enough to be starting pitchers…which is fine, since the rotation is a disaster and lots of long relief innings will be needed.

Bullpen Grade: C+

Projected 2009 Offense:

1) Brian Roberts 2B
2) Adam Jones CF
3) Nick Markakis RF
4) Matt Wieters C
5) Luke Scott DH
6) Aubrey Huff 1B
7) Melvin Mora 3B
8) Felix Pie LF
9) Cesar Izturis SS

Bench:

Greg Zaun C
Ty Wiggington 1B/2B/3B
Ryan Freel SS/OF
Lou Montanez OF

Matt Wieters was born on the twenty-first day in May, in the Year of Our Lord nineteen hundred and eighty six.  When He emerged from the womb, he looked upon His world and saw that it was good.  He then unearthed a 270 foot sequoia and whittled it into his first baseball bat, for which He used to bash down the Berlin Wall at the age of three.  Throughout His adolescent years, he battled Satan’s evil hordes and drove them back to their underground lair of fire, in between punishing opposing Legion Ball pitchers and sending thousands of baseballs into orbit.  When He first donned catcher’s equipment, the local scribes dubbed this equipment “The Tools of Omnipotence”, for a bright glow could be seen emanating from them.  And they saw that it was good.  The Baltimore Orioles, realizing that great power can be dangerous as well as beneficial, have chosen to keep Him in the minor leagues for the time being.  Not unlike Frodo Baggins with “The One Ring”, Orioles management are hesitant to use Matt Wieters, in fear of the seductive lure of powerful abilities.  What if he falls into the wrong hands?  What then!?

Seriously, though, this lineup is interesting even without Wieters initially making the team.  Roberts and Markakis are both among the best at their respective positions.  Adam Jones has the potential to break out into superstar territory at some point, and Felix Pie also has a high ceiling.  Huff, Scott, and Mora are all above average offensive contributors.  The O’s also feature a solid bench, with the Crash Davis-like Zaun and the versatile Freel/Wiggington combo.

Offensive Grade: B-

2009 Fielding Projection:

Up the middle, the Orioles are strong.  Izturis and Jones are among the best fielders at their positions, and while Brian Roberts might be losing a step, he’s still better than average.  Wieters is a good defensive catcher by all accounts, as is Zaun.  The tandem of Markakis-Joes-Pie could be the best defensive outfield in the American League.  Melvin Mora isn’t the defensive abomination he once was, but neither he nor Aubrey Huff will be bringing home a Gold Glove.  Corner infielders notwithstanding, this is a nifty defensive team.  Thank God for that, or the team ERA might have found itself in John Wasdin territory.

Fielding Grade: B+

The Orioles have a handful of young guys who fans a reason to be hopeful.  Jones, Wieters, along with a couple of minor league pitchers might all be All-Star caliber players in two or three years.  When I calculated the overall grade, it was higher than I expected, mostly due to a boost from a decent bullpen and strong fielders.  A novel (yet difficult) short term goal for this team will be to avoid last place in baseball’s toughest division.

Overall Score: 52.5 (C)

Next up: the city known for mass-production of a product I often refer to as “Happy Juice”.