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By Jimmy, 3/30/2011 5:58 pm

2010 Pythagorean Record: 78-84

Roster Analysis:

Despite having a few very good players entering their prime (Kemp, Kershaw, Billingsley, Ethier), this team will not be very good, due to a few large weaknesses in the lineup and the back of the rotation/bullpen. The Dodgers haven’t finished in last place in 19 years. They could very well contend for that dubious accomplishment in 2011.

Projected Record: 72-90

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By Jimmy,

As previously mentioned, Orioles manager Buck Showalter has been running his yap about beating the Red Sox and their $215 million payroll (sic). Can the Orioles back up their skipper’s bold words?

Orioles 2010 Pythagorean Record: 63-99

Roster Analysis:

The O’s management has very creatively improved the offense with guys who, while not superstars, should score a few more runs and make a few more plays than the dreck they had on the field last year. They’ll be hoping that their young, promising starters improve enough to ensure the pitching staff isn’t a complete abortion like it was last season. Personally, I think the 2009 Jeremy Guthrie (5+ ERA) is the guy you’ll be seeing if we assume luck-neutral environment. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, and he’s not a ground ball pitcher. Frankly, he shouldn’t be that good.

While they should be a bit better, keep in mind that this was basically a 100-loss team in 2010. They brought in some interesting low-cost, past-their-prime players to fill gaps, but it would take a miracle for this team to even approach a .500 season, especially given their divisional opponents. They’ll win enough games to avoid being a complete embarrassment, but they’ll lose enough games to make Showalter look like a jackass.

Projected record: 74-88

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By Jimmy, 2/23/2011 10:29 am

2010 Pythagorean Record: 92-70
Run Scoring: 4.88 runs per game (1st out of 16)
Run Prevention: 4.23 runs per game (7th out of 16)

After a 14-year hiatus from the playoffs and 9 straight losing seasons, manager Dusty Baker oiled up the Big Red Machine and flipped the flipped the “ON” switch, leading them to a 1st place finish in the NL Central last year. Cincinnati’s success was mostly due to their powerful offense, highlighted by first baseman Joey Votto’s stunning MVP performance (.324/.424/.600).

All of this happened despite a disappointing year from prized starter Edinson Volquez, who missed time due to Tommy John surgery and also served a 50-game suspension for violating MLB’s drug policy (fortunately for the Reds, these things happened concurrently). Now that Volquez appears to be healthy and a few other changes have taken place, how does the 2011 roster look?

Why am I predicting a slight decline for Votto? Only because he set the bar so incredibly high in the previous season. Matching his 2010 results will be very difficult. Put it this way, he can still have a great season at the plate in 2011 while still being slightly less productive (1 or 2 less wins). This is what I’m betting on.

The rest of the downgrades are pretty standard. Rolen and Hernandez are both coming off of very good years, but both players are in their late 30′s and a solid bet to decline a bit. Jay Bruce, as good as he was last season, might be even better in 2011.

While the offense can’t really be expected to significantly improve upon their success from the previous season, the pitching staff will likely be a little better. A healthy Volquez and another year of seasoning from Cueto, Bailey, and Wood translates into one of the most promising young rotations in the National League. And while the bullpen will miss the services of the ageless wonder that is Arthur Rhodes, Aroldis Chapman will make an immediate impact in the late innings, and could even take over the closer’s role if Cordero struggles.

Best Case Scenario: Votto continues to wreak havoc upon NL pitchers, and usurps the “best hitter in baseball” tag from Albert Pujols after his second-straight MVP season. The rotation stays healthy, and the Reds approach 100 wins.

Worst Case Scenario: Votto regresses into a mortal power hitting first baseman, and one or more key starters get hurt. St. Louis leaves the Reds in their dust. Record is slightly above .500.

Conclusion: This is a team that is set to be very good for a very long time, both in pitching and offense. Anything less than a Wild Card berth in 2011 will be a disappointment.

Projected record: 95-67

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By Jimmy, 2/3/2011 10:05 am

Why "Inverted W"? Why not just call it "The M"? /seinfeld

2010 Pythagorean Record: 72-90
Run Scoring: 4.04 runs per game (14 out of 16)
Run Prevention: 4.58 runs per game (12 out of 16)

Coming into last season, a realistic goal for the 2010 Nationals was to not be the worst team in the major leagues.  With a little bit of help, they made it happen.  Despite clearing that lofty benchmark, the season was not without frustration, as young superstar pitcher Stephen Strasburg required Tommy John surgery after only 12 starts in the big leagues.

During this offseason, perhaps looking to fill some seats in lieu of Strasburg’s injury, the Nationals shocked the baseball world by signing free-agent outfielder Jayson Werth to a 7 year/$126 MM deal.  Just about everyone outside of DC (myself included) questioned why a team clearly in rebuilding mode would make such a move.

So, can the Nationals compete in the NL East with Strasburg a virtual non-factor in 2011?  I’ll save you the suspense; probably not.  Let’s look at the roster:

When the Nats let Adam Dunn leave via free agency, they washed away any net offensive potential added with the Werth signing. The end result is a lineup that isn’t very different from the 2010 version. Zimmerman is a true superstar and should get better as he enters his prime, and Ramos and Espinosa are both promising young players, but this is a crew that won’t be scoring many runs.

The view from the pitcher’s mound doesn’t get much better. Livan Hernandez is legendary for his rubber arm at this point, but 2010 was the first time in 5 years that he finished with an ERA under 4.50. Given his age and track record, a regression is almost a certainty. Marquis and Lannan are batting practice machines who would have trouble cracking most AAA rotations. Zimmerman has some potential, but he’s never pitched more than 134 innings in one season during his professional career. Tom Gorzelanny is probably the best healthy starting pitcher on the team right now.

The bullpen was Washington’s strength in 2010. They weren’t just good, they were terrific. After losing Matt Capps and Joel Peralta along with the likely regressions of guys like Clippard and Burnett, the relief corps should be just about average in 2011.

Best Case Scenario: Zimmerman provides MVP-caliber results, Jayson Werth hits around 40 home runs, Pudge Rodriguez retires and allows Wilson Ramos to become the full-time catcher. Stephen Strasburg returns at the end of the season and has a couple of dominant starts, restoring some hope. Nats finish a tad under .500.

Worst Case Scenario: Strasburg suffers a setback and does not sniff a pitcher’s mound in 2011. Jayson Werth shows signs of aging, giving the front office a terrifying sense of buyer’s remorse on that 7 year deal. Zimmerman regresses a bit, and the Nats lose over 100 games (again).

Conclusion: It’s all about the prospects, baby. Fans should keep an eye on top draft pick Bryce Harper, likely to start the season in High-A and already campaigning for a September call-up. After seeing what he did as a 17-year-old in junior college, he could be the real deal.

Projected record: 71-91

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By Jimmy, 1/11/2011 11:20 am

Managers should really adhere to the MLB uniform rules, like they did in the old days...wait, what?

2010 Record: 81-81
Run Scoring: 4.09 runs per game (11th out of 14)
Run Prevention: 3.86 runs per game (1st out of 14) 

The A’s 2nd place finish in the AL West last season was a tad unexpected, as the team’s young pitching staff managed to dominate the American League.  Under the tutelage of pitching coach Curt Young, the A’s rotation has seemingly perfected the art of inducing ground balls to a science, as they managed to prevent runs despite modest strikeout rates. 

As most of their key pitchers are cost-controlled and will be returning in 2011, the A’s spent the offseason finding creative ways to improve their glaring weakness: offense.  The team is finally rid of Eric Chavez after years of gauze-wrapped disappointment, and Rajai Davis will no longer be creating outs. 

While the offense should be better, the biggest question facing this team will be whether or not the Oakland pitching staff can rediscover the magic they found in 2010 now that Curt Young has been ripped away by an evil big-market team. 

Let’s look at the projected roster: 

Suzuki and Kouzmanoff, both in their prime, should hit a little bit better than they did in 2010, while Ellis is a good bet to regress as he enters his mid-thirties.  DeJesus and Willingham are both significant improvements to what was an anemic Oakland outfield last year, while Coco Crisp should be decent in centerfield as long as he remains healthy. 

As much as I like Trevor Cahill, I can’t see him continuing to post an ERA under 3.00 with that strikeout rate of his.  He’ll be decent, but expect a few more batted balls to sneak through in 2011.  However, the rotation as a whole should perform reasonably well. 

Best Case Scenario: Barton continues to add power and becomes Kevin Youkilis 2.0, Matsui rakes, the rotation pitches as well as they did last year, and the A’s win roughly 95 games and beat out Texas for the AL West title. 

Worst Case Scenario: Willingham struggles against AL pitching, Matsui and Ellis decline drastically, and the rotation proves that 2010 was a fluke.  A’s finish in 3rd place, a few games under .500. 

Conclusion: This is a team whose Pythagorean record in 2010 was 85-77, and they appear to have addressed several weaknesses this offseason.  With a slew of good, young pitchers under their control and an improving offense, we could be seeing the beginning of a steak of success similar to 2000-2003 (i.e. the “Moneyball” years). 

Projected record: 91-71

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By Jimmy, 1/5/2011 10:44 am

If you are 30-ish, and a nerd, this image will likely bring back memories.

2010 Record: 57-105
Run Scoring: 3.62 runs per game (16th out of 16)
Run Prevention: 5.35 runs per game (16th out of 16th)

There’s not a whole lot to be said.  The Pirates, a team that has been bad for nearly 20 years, were historically terrible in 2010.  By far the worst team in baseball; the team with the worst offense and the worst pitching.  Their 105 losses were the highest total by the franchise since 1952.

Last year’s atrocities aside, there is a glass-half full way to look at this team.  First and foremost: things can only get better from here.  The Pirates cannot lose more than 105 games (right? RIGHT?).  Secondly, and most importantly, the team features some very talented young players with very high ceilings.  Both Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez are possible superstars in the making, and both Neil Walker and Jose Tabata appear to be decent players on the rise.

The harsh reality, however, is that the team’s ownership doesn’t seem to be interested in spending money.  Hopeful Pirates fans might point to the turnaround experienced by the Detroit Tigers after their 119 loss season in 2003, but unlike the Pirates, the Tigers ownership has been willing to sign big paychecks.  The team hasn’t been good enough in the draft to rely on cost-controlled talent like Tampa Bay has done in recent years (it’s a pity that they were just “good” enough to miss the boat on Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg).

With all that said, let’s  see how the team looks going into the 2011 season:

Like I mentioned earlier, there are a few reasons to tune into Pirates games in 2011.  Pedro Alvarez will be 24-years-old, and should provide some much-needed offense after fully usurping the job from Andy Laroche.  Also, Andrew McCutchen could develop into one of the best centerfielders in the game in the next year or two.

While the offense should improve a bit, the pitching will still be terrible.  The Pirates late-inning bullpen options  (Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan) are decent, but they shouldn’t be expected to replicate last year’s success, and the team’s awful starting rotation won’t allow them to pitch with the lead very often.

Best Case Scenario: Alvarez emerges as an elite offensive third baseman, and McCutchen and Walker continue to improve.  The Pirates finish in last place again, but not by a large margin.

Worst Case Scenario: One of their young players gets hurt, and the team replicates 2010.

Conclusion: The highlight of the team’s summer will be making the first overall selection in the 2011 Amateur Draft this June.  They really can’t afford screw that one up.

Projected record: 64-98

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By Jimmy, 1/4/2011 11:43 am

Before we get started, I just wanted to take a moment to explain my model for the annual team previews, which has been overhauled yet again.  Its actually pretty simple (and better than my models from previous years, I think).  I’ll be stacking up the lineup and rotation each team used in 2010 next to their projected 2011 roster, and identifying a likely upgrade or downgrade at each position.

My grading system will go like this:

Once I tally up all of the expected changes, I’ll try to come up with a projected 2011 record based on their 2010 record.  Most of the changes we’ll see are slight upgrades and downgrades.  An upgrade / downgrade will sometimes occur even when dealing with the same player in 2010 and ’11; the player could be getting older, entering his prime, coming off of an injury plagued or lucky 2010 season, etc.  You won’t see very many “massive” changes in either direction.  A massive upgrade is basically the difference between a replacement level player and an All-Star.

I’ll be rating each starting position and rotation spot individually, and bench units and bullpens as a whole, but in the case of bullpens, you can multiply the win/loss effect by 2.

I’m in the process of writing the first preview now, so we’ll see how this looks on paper in the next day or so.

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By Jimmy, 12/18/2010 11:02 am

As Emperor Palpatine would say, the Red Sox bullpen construction appears to be “complete” and the relief corps is now “fully operational”.  Boston has agreed to terms with Dan Wheeler (I described him here a few days ago).

Right now, the Red Sox bullpen is looking like this:

Jonathan Papelbon, RHP
Dan Bard, RHP
Bobby Jenks, RHP
Dan Wheeler, RHP
Scott Atchison, RHP
Tim Wakefield, RHP
Obligatory Lefty, LHP

“Obligatory Lefty” will be one out of a group of Rich Hill, Felix Doubront, Lenny DiNardo, and Andrew Miller.  It probably won’t be decided until late March, but I’ll make a very premature prediction: Rich Hill makes the team, Felix Doubront joins the rotation in Pawtucket in an effort to develop him as a starting pitcher, Lenny DiNardo carpools with Doubront to Pawtucket, and Andrew Miller is released during Spring Training.

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By Jimmy, 12/9/2010 11:50 am

Let’s take a peek at the Red Sox roster as it currently stands.  I’m making a few assumptions and guessing the 25 guys they would leave Fort Myers with if today were April 1st.

Note: that batting order is how I would arrange it against a right-handed starting pitcher.  I’m not really sure what Terry Francona’s plans are.  Pete Abraham mentioned the idea of Crawford hitting third, which I’m not a fan of at all.

• Names in Blue: players who are certain to keep their spot if healthy
• Names in Green: players who would probably be adequate in their roles, but could be supplanted by an acquisition
• Names in Red: players who aren’t really MLB-quality, and are good bets to be replaced.  In fact, my next post will be looking at some available pitchers who the Sox could target to fill these gaps.

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By Jimmy,

I couldn’t sleep, so I decided to turn on the computer and see what the “Hot Stove” had cooked up overnight.  I was expecting a new journeyman reliever, or maybe a right-handed hitting DH type.  This one, I did not expect.

The contract is for 7 years and $142 million.  Considering the fact that Jayson Werth got 7 years and only $2.3 million less per year in average annual value, the money seems fair.

As I pointed out, Crawford won’t hit for much power in Fenway.  However, he’ll do pretty much everything else.

I’ll have more on this later.  As it stands right now, it appears that the Red Sox are the big winners of Offseason 2011.

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By Jimmy, 4/6/2010 11:11 am

We've brought in a consultant to help us with the 2010 predictions.

Watching the least-likable college basketball program in the country win a national championship was rather tortuous, so if my 2010 MLB predictions turn out to be laughably wrong (like, for instance, last season), I’ll blame my lapse in judgment on post-traumatic stress disorder brought on by staring at Mike Krzyzewski’s smarmy face for too long.

Coach K is apparently going to turn down a $12-15 million per year salary offer from the NJ Nets, so he can stay at Duke and continue to breed his genetically engineered army of pseudo-Mormons.  Look, Durham is a nice place and New Jersey is an open sewer, but we’re talking about an 8 figure salary.  He could live in Ocean City and fly a helicopter to work every day,  if he wanted to.  Why can’t this guy just succumb to the natural greed inherent in all Americans?  It’s OK to display human flaws.  Take the money, you lipless ferret.

On to America’s pastime.

Projected 2010 Finishes:

AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox

I know, I know.  Yankees winning the AL East and Red Sox winning the wild card, I’m not really breaking away from the herd on this one.  I’d have to guess that most people are banking on the same thing.  Do you know why that is?  It’s because the prediction makes sense.  On paper, these are clearly the two best teams in the American League.  They are too far ahead of any team in the Central or the West.  The only thing other teams can hope for is a cannibalization effect (Sox, Yanks, and Rays beating up on each other to the point that their win-loss records slip behind other wildcard contenders).

Look for the Royals to make gains, and the Tigers to disappoint.

NL Wildcard winner: Cincinnati Reds

My reach pick in the NL is the Reds, who I believe have enough starting pitching and offense to make noise in 2010.  Breakout performances from guys like Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey could make baseball’s oldest franchise the story of the summer.

ALCS: Rangers over Yankees (5 games)
NLCS: Dodgers over Cardinals (7 games)

World Series: I predict that the Texas Rangers will win the first World Series championship in the history of their franchise, beating the Dodgers in a hotly contested 7 game series.

AL Cy Young Award: Felix Hernandez (SEA – SP)
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez (NYY – 3B)
AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz (TEX – SP)

NL Cy Young Award: Tim Lincecum (SF – SP)
NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL – 1B)
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward (ATL – OF)

My NL award predictions seem bland, but Occam’s Razor applies here.  Lincecum and Pujols are too far ahead of anyone else.  I feel a little slimy after picking Heyward, since the hype machine is in full force after his debut yesterday (an actual Peter Gammons tweet from this morning: “Every day Jason Heyward looks in the mirror and asks, ‘am I the person I want to be?’ great talent, greater family”…OY VEY, GAMMO), but there aren’t many other candidates for RoY in the NL.  I suppose Pittsburgh’s Pedro Alvarez could give him a run for his money.

Other predictions:

• Comeback players of the year:  Carlos Quentin (CHI, OF), Anibal Sanchez (FLA, SP)
• Managers of the year: Ron Washington (TEX), Dusty Baker (CIN)
• First managers fired: Bob Geren (OAK), Bud Black (SD)

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By Jimmy,

HoF'er Jimmy Collins, considered by many to be the greatest pre-WWII third baseman.

After months of dismal winter highlighted by earthquakes, flooding, and skyrocketing unemployment rates, a pleasant distraction in the form of the 2010 baseball season has arrived.  Technically, this team preview is a day late, but hopefully not a dollar short.

Arrivals: John Lackey (SP), Mike Cameron (CF), Adrian Beltre (3B), Marco Scutaro (SS), Scott Schoeneweis (RP), Scott Atchison (RP), Bill Hall (IF), Jeremy Hermida (OF)

Departures: Jason Bay (LF), Billy Wagner (RP), Takashi Saito (RP), Casey Kotchman (1B), Ales Gonzalez (SS)

You know by now that the Red Sox have undergone a significant facelift over the winter, both in terms of roster makeup and strategy.  The large number of names on that “arrivals” list sort of highlights the massive rebalancing effort undertaken by the front office in the past few months.  The one significant personnel loss is, of course, power-hitting outfielder Jason Bay.  In his absence, the Red Sox will try a different approach in 2010: an increased focus on run prevention.

Projected 2010 Starting Lineup:

Projected 2010 Bench:

As you can see by glancing at those fielding ratings juxtaposed with the hitting ratings, this Red Sox team in unlike any we have seen in recent memory.  While the gloves are obviously a strong point in comparison to the bats, the offense should be able to hold their own.  They won’t outscore the Yankees over the course of the year, but a top 5 finish in AL runs in likely.  The biggest question marks are with Adrian Beltre’s bat, and the team’s exposure to left-handed pitching (particularly Ortiz, Drew, and Ellsbury).

There might be a way to hedge the latter problem.  I made this post over the winter illustrating how Boston could actually keep Mike Lowell on the roster and use him to their advantage.  Now that the deal with the Texas Rangers has fallen through, it looks like the Sox might actually retain the veteran corner infielder’s services this season.  It might not be what Lowell wants (understandably, he’d prefer to go to a team where he would be a primary starter), but it might be the best scenario for the Red Sox, given David Ortiz’ deteriorating abilities against left-handed pitchers.

I am very bearish on Bill Hall, however, the Sox do have Jed Lowrie on the DL.  Lowrie will get a chance to prove himself in AAA, and if he heats up in Pawtucket while Hall struggles up here, a change will be made.

Projected 2010 Rotation:

The front three is as strong as any other in the major leagues.  The question marks come after John Lackey’s turn in the rotation.  Tim Wakefield is the king of the league average 100 ERA+ performance, which would normally be palatable from a 4th or 5th starter.  However, his age and health raise concerns, as a 40+ ballplayer’s abilities could erode at any time. Timmy could see a sharp decline in performance, and when it happens, his effectiveness is probably gone for good.  To his credit, he did look fine in the spring.  Clay Buchholz’ talent is not in question, but his ability to successfully challenge MLB hitters on a consistent basis has yet to be proved.

For now, I’ll keep Daisuke Matsuzaka out of the equation.  He’s going to make a few rehab starts in the minors before making his 2010 MLB debut, which means a few weeks on the shelf, at minimum.  If he does return and proves to be ineffective, his 2010 campaign will go a lot like 2009: a long, frustrating shell game between the DL and various minor league affiliates.

Projected 2010 Bullpen:

The Sox bullpen takes a step after Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, two reliable set-up arms, leave as free-agents.  They are replaced by Scott Atchison, a wild card who had moderate success in Japan these past two years, and Scott Schoenewies, a pitcher who might have some marginal use in situational “LOOGY” roles.  I’m assuming that Atchison performs at the level of an average AL middle reliever, since we really don’t have too much to go on.  While the back end of the bullpen is fairly secure with the combination of Papelbon, Bard, and Ramirez, the early bullpen could prove to be a weakness if a starter can’t go beyond 5 or so innings.

For a team playing in one of the more notorious hitting environments in the game, shifting from an offensive focus to a pitching/defense focus could prove to be a difficult transition.  On paper, the team does not have the raw talent to match New York, but they aren’t far off.  The Sox will need to stay healthy and avoid any significant regression in order to win baseball’s strongest division, the American League East.  naturally, the Sox come up with the second highest team score out of all the squads I previewed.

Team Score: 7.56

As always, the Red Sox will field a competitive team, and at the very least, they will provide us with some long-awaited entertainment for the next 6 months.

Next: league predictions (standings, awards, World Series winners)

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By Jimmy, 3/31/2010 9:41 am

Okay.  It has become painfully apparent that I’m not going to be able to preview every MLB team before the season begins, so I’ve decided to skip ahead to the two most relevant teams (from our perspective).  Once I finish the Red Sox, I’ll post the season predictions, power rankings, etc.

Western MA native Happy Jack Chesbro holds the "modern day" record for wins in a season (41 in 1904).

I don’t recall most of the details, but I vaguely remember the Yankees being pretty good last year.  This wasn’t much of a surprise, given the amount of talent they acquired during an unprecedented spending spree over the winter.  First baseman Mark Teixeira earned every penny of his gigantic salary in year 1, C.C. Sabathia was consistently good, and A.J. Burnett performed basically as expected.  These acquisitions put NY over the top in 2009.  Let’s take a look at how 2010 Yanquis are shaping up:

Arrivals: Curtis Granderson (CF), Nick Johnson (1B), Javier Vasquez (P), Chan Ho Park (P), Randy Winn (OF), Marcus Thames (OF)

Departures: Johnny Damon (OF), Hideki Matsui (DH), Chien-Ming Wang (P), Jose Molina (C)

Projected Starting Lineup:

Projected Bench:

There’s really not too many weaknesses to pick apart here.  Some guys are getting old, but their production hasn’t slowed down to the point that you’d expect a major regression in 2010.  Posada, in particular, is a concern, but the Yankees’ minor league system is hemorrhaging catching prospects.  The left side of the infield is shaky defensively, but both the SS and the 3B make up for it at the plate.  The three headed monster in LF will be a step back from Johnny Damon’s 2009 production, but the acquisition of Curtis Granderson (who should enjoy the little league RF porch) will make up for Damon’s loss.

Projected pitching staff:

Javier Vasquez is interesting. You could make an argument that he owes much of his success to weaker National League competition. However, even during some of his lackluster seasons in the AL, he’s had strong peripherals (and did manage to have one excellent year with the White Sox). My everlasting image of Vasquez is him giving up soul-shattering HRs to Johnny Damon in the unprecedented choke-job that was the 2004 ALCS, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and project him to be a pretty good #2 starter in 2010.

One minor weakness might be middle-relief and rotation depth.  Now that Joba Chamberlain is once again a 1-2 inning pitcher, he won’t be called upon to step in if a long-man or 6th starter is needed.  Those responsibilities will fall upon Sergio Mitre and Chan-Ho Park, neither of whom inspires much confidence at this stage of their careers.  Still, the rest of the staff is strong.  I’m especially bullish on Phil Hughes and David Robertson, two guys who could break out this season.

In full disclosure, I harbor a primal hatred for this team. So, if you notice any wacky ratings, feel free to chime in and tell me where I may be off. I’ve gone over it twice, and I think I’ve been fair. It’s not much of a shock that they have the highest score out of the teams I’ve previewed thus far.

2010 team score: 7.72

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By Jimmy, 3/24/2010 9:05 am

The team's old nickname was changed in 2007. Bland focus group marketing 1, creativity & marine biology 0...

Since God has decided to punish the state of Massachusetts for our progressive beliefs by pounding us mercilessly with rain and flooding, I’ll go ahead and preview a warm weather team: the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Rays, of course, are division rivals of the Red Sox, and we’ll be seeing a lot (maybe too much) of this team over the course of the summer.

Arrivals: Kelly Shoppach (C), Hank Blalock (CIF), Rafael Soriano (RP)
Departures: Greg Zaun (C), Gabe Gross (RF), Troy Percival (RP), Jason Isringhausen (RP)

Projected 2010 Starting Lineup:

Projected 2010 Bench:

If Blalock doesn’t make the club (he’s signed to a minor league deal), infielder Sean Rodriguez will most likely be taking his spot.  The Rays are probably better off with Zobrist in RF and either Rodriguez or Brignac starting at 2B, but from what I’m seeing, a Joyce/Kapler platoon is the most likely scenario to begin the season.

The Rays starting lineup certainly looks formidable on paper.  After grading the first three players, I asked myself If I was overdoing it a bit, and I don’t really think I did.  A handful of their regulars are among the best in the game at their positions (most notably Longoria), and aside from perhaps RF, there really isn’t an offensive weak spot to pick apart.

Pitching coming next…

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By Jimmy, 3/21/2010 6:22 pm

In the 1920's, baseball outlawed the spit ball. A handful of pitchers were "grandfathered in", and allowed to continue to throw the pitch. Hall of Famer Burleigh Grimes was one of them.

Today is my first day back from Fort Myers, and thus it’s been a day of catching up on DVR’d television, unpacking and giving the sniff-test to crumpled clothes, and checking work e-mails to get a vague sense of how shitty my Monday will be.  Anyway, I’ll be going fast and furious with the team previews, which realistically will spill over into the first week or two of the regular season.  On to “Them Bums”:

Arrivals: Jamey Carroll (2B), Nick Green (Hard-Nosed Gamer)
Departures: Randy Wolf (SP), Jim Thome (1B), Brian Giles (OF)

After winning 95 games, the Dodgers had a rather disappointing offseason, losing veteran starter Randy Wolf to free agency and not doing a whole lot to make up for that loss.  Granted, the team does have some young talent that could improve from 2010, but this lackadaisical winter could prove fatal in a division where several other teams have improved.

Projected 2010 Starting Lineup:

Projected 2010 Bench:

The Dodgers might have the best offensive outfield in baseball, but they appear to have some serious defensive holes in various spots on the field, most notably our old buddy in left field.  Regardless, I’m a big Matt Kemp fan, and at the end of this season, we may be talking about him in the same way we talk about guys like Hanley Ramirez (i.e., as one of the best all-around players in the game).

Projected 2010 Pitching Staff:

That #5 starter slot is wide open at this point.  I’m penciling in Elbert, since he has much more upside than the likes of knuckleballer Charlie Haeger or Eric Stults (not to be confused with the guy from Mask).  Both the rotation and bullpen show a lot of promise, but lord help the Dodgers if someone like Russ Ortiz is counted on to fill in for a significant portion the innings Randy Wolf’s departure will free up.

The Dodgers might regress a bit from 2009, but they did win more games than anyone else in the league last season, so they should still be tough to beat.

Team Score: 7.37

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By Jimmy, 3/4/2010 10:44 am

He seems so happy (and sane) here. It's like looking at a photo of a young Senator Palpatine, before the Sith got their claws in him.

For those of you in the New England / Tri-State area who are contemplating a 3-day baseball road trip, I highly recommend making the trek out to Detroit, and following that up with stops in Cleveland and Pittsburgh (in that order).  All three stadiums are great places to watch a game, much more comfortable than the pygmy swamp gulag I have become accustomed to.

Anyway, If I were some sort of god or mystical being with unlimited powers, I would hover over Detroit and play a real life game of Sim City.  You know the drill: demolish abandoned buildings here, build parks there, implement wind power, ensure that there is adequate coverage with evenly-dispersed police stations.  Maybe I’d build a statue of myself.  Hey, nothing Stalin-esque, maybe just a 20-footer in the center of town, so people could pay their proper respects.  I don’t think that would be asking too much.

On to the baseball team.

Arrivals: LF Johnny Damon, SP Max Scherzer, RP Jose Valverde, RP Daniel Schlereth, CF Austin Jackson, RP Phil Coke, SS Adam Everett

Departures: CF Curtis Granderson, SP Edwin Jackson, RP Fernando Rodney, 1B Aubrey Huff, 2B Placido Polanco, RP Brandon Lyon

As you can see, there have been a ton of changes in Detroit, with perhaps more key-player turnover than any team in the league this offseason.  Most of the changes stem from the Granderson trade.  While that trade appears to be a very good move from a long-term standpoint, the impact on the 2010 team is something of a question mark.  See below.

Projected 2010 starting lineup:

Austin Jackson is the major wild card in this lineup, as he will be making his much-anticipated MLB debut this spring.  He was good, but not great, in AAA last season, hitting .300/.354/.405 while playing competent CF defense.  Jackson can run well, but his power never really developed like Yankee fans hoped it would.  Now that he’s 23-years-old, I think we pretty much know what to expect from him.

Aside from another rookie, Scott Sizemore, the rest of the lineup should be familiar to most observers.  The offense appears to be heavily concentrated in the middle of the order, with one elite slugger and a handful of decent hitters to support him, but there are few guys here that shouldn’t be counted on for too much production in 2010.

To be continued (pitching)

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By Jimmy, 3/3/2010 10:24 am

A living, breathing symbol of the incompetence of HoF voters.

A few years ago, I briefly had a roommate from Cincinnati.  Nice girl.  Redhead.  Anyway, one Saturday afternoon she asks me if I would like to try a “Cincinnati Chili”.  Now, I had never heard of Cincinnati Chili at that point, and to be honest, I wasn’t sure if it was a type of dish or one of those things you find on urbandictionary.com.  Either way, my answer was the same: yes.

Let’s just say, I was not a fan at all.  Midwesterners do a lot of things right (BBQ, hot dogs, agriculture, etc.) but they should not be allowed to mess around with pasta.

On to the original professional baseball team, the Red Legs:

Arrivals: 2B Aaron Miles, SS Orlando Cabrera, P Aroldis Chapman
Departures: RP Ramon Ramirez, CF Willy Taveras

Projected 2010 Lineup:

Projected 2010 Bench:

I can’t help but laugh at some of these player profiles you read online.  Yeah, I realize I’m not exactly Red Smith myself, but please tell me if this profile on Drew Stubbs is not completely ludicrous:

“With Stubbs having the inside track to become the full time center fielder, he could make for a nice late-round surprise come Draft Day. His performance in just a brief stint last season showed that he had the power of a Hanley Ramirez and has the ability to be a speedier version of Nate Mclouth (sic).”

The first sentence?  Sure, fine. he’ll probably start.  The second sentence is just completely off the wall.  Nothing Stubbs has done in the minors or majors indicates that he will ever hit as well as Nate McLouth, and the idea that he could even dream of approaching Hanley’s power (career .531 SLG%) is hilarious.

The top of this lineup is fine, and the bottom should hold their own (even if Stubbs fails to hit like Hanley Ramirez) in a division that is not as strong as it once was.

Projected 2010 Rotation:

The Reds actually have a fairly deep core of starting pitchers, if you consider staff ace Edinson Volquez, who will return at some point after the All-Star break, and Cuban flamethrower Aroldis Chapman, who will probably begin his career in the minors but will not be denied for long.  The 5th spot is up for grabs; consider Owings a default entry, as he is one of the more experienced guys competing for that job.

Projected 2010 Bullpen:

The bullpen is far from decided at this point. Maloney and Lincoln will both be vying for that 5th rotation spot, but neither one is a guarantee to make the staff.  Herrera, Rhodes, and Masset all were excellent in 2009 with microscopic ERAs, but none of them are really dominant relievers, and should probably bet on regressing to the mean this season.

Overall, Cincinnati has a solid young team with plenty of guys who could break out.  If lightning strikes in the right spots, I could see them becoming a Cindarella contender in the NL Central.

Team score: 6.71

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By Jimmy, 2/23/2010 10:36 am

Anyone know where I can get my hands on one of these?

As we enter a new decade, the Pittsburgh Pirates are clearly the diseased runts of Major League Baseball.  They have a terrific stadium, a great city (if you’ve never been there, check it out), and one of the oldest franchises in the league.  It’s getting to the point where Obama should just step in and socialize these guys, am I right?  It’s not that the Pirates are “too big to fail”, but they are too historic to fail.  The Dutchman pictured to the right is furiously spinning in his grave at the sight of Pittsburgh’s annual display of futility.

Will their fortunes finally turn in 2010?  Let’s see.

Arrivals: OF Ryan Church, IF Bobby Crosby, RP Brendan Donnelly, RP Octavio Dotel, 2B Akinori Iwamura

Departures: RP Matt Capps, RP Jesse Chavez

I like what Pittburgh is doing here after the inevitable loss of their closer (Capps) to free agency.  They didn’t go too crazy trying to find a replacement to step in as closer, instead, they signed long-time setup man Dotel for a bargain price.  Also, the acquisitions of Church, Crosby, Donnelly, and Iwamura all fill holes on the roster at minimal cost.  From a pure transactional standpoint, the Pirates have improved.  Now, onto the projections:

Projected Starting Lineup:

There’s certainly lots of potential in the lineup.  McCutchen is the most promising of the bunch, but LaRoche, Clement, and Milledge were all considered upper-echelon prospects not too long ago, and each one has the potential to break out a bit in 2010.  Garrett Jones was on fire in his rookie year, but we can expect him to come down to earth this year.

Bench:

Walker and Church are both guys who could take over easily if someone like LaRoche or Milledge struggles.  The rest of the bench is rather thin.

Projected Rotation:

Bullpen:

If the Pirates do lose 90-100 games again in 2010, it will be primarily due to their pitching staff.  They have a starting lineup full of guys who could be fun to watch this year, but their rotation lacks any true power pitcher, and their bullpen beyond Hanrahan and Dotel is really a mess.

If anything, they appear to be on the right track, as they do have an impressive number of under-25 guys who are promising.  Again, it’s tough to look at the big picture this early without reviewing other teams, but I think finishing in second to last place in the NL Central might be a practical goal for this young squad.

Team score: 6.09

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By Jimmy, 2/20/2010 12:28 pm

Dean Chance won the 1964 AL Cy Young Award, leading the league in ERA and innings pitched.

We’ll kick off our 2010 MLB team previews with the squad that eliminated the Red Sox from the ALDS last season.  The Angels have formed a solid rivalry with the Sox in the last decade, complete with playoff drama and beanball wars.  While they still seem to garner the whole “scrappy/small-ball” image from the media, the Angels won 97 games last year primarily on the strength of their offense, as they were 2nd in the American League in runs scored.

Additions: DH Hideki Matsui, SP Joel Pineiro, RP Fernando Rodney, RP Brian Stokes
Departures: SP John Lackey, 3B Chone Figgins, OF Vlad Guerrero, SP Kelvim Escobar, RP Darren Oliver, OF Gary Matthews Jr.

Obviously, the offseason hasn’t been very kind to these poor scrappy Angels.  Their best pitcher, their most valuable position player, and their most popular veteran all left via free agency.  Hideki Matsui might be a marginal improvement over Guerrero at the plate, but the losses of Lackey and Figgins will be a little more difficult to fill.

Before I list the projected starters, keep in mind that this batting order is how I’d write it if I were managing the team (in other words, don’t read too much into the batting order).

Starters:

Bench:

One of the assumptions I’m making is a breakthrough year from Howie Kendrick, a guy who has the makings of a batting champion but hasn’t taken the leap yet.  I’m expecting slight regressions from Kendry Morales and Juan Rivera.  It’s difficult to say this with any certainty before I’ve run the other projections, but I think the Angels’ bench is among the strongest in the American League, with Izturis and Mathis being guys who could start on a lot of MLB teams.

Rotation:

Bullpen:

I feel that substituting Joel Pineiro for John Lackey is a massive, massive downgrade that will really hurt the Angels’ efforts to prevent runs from scoring.  Their bullpen will improve a little with the additions for Rodney and Stokes, but it still lacks depth.

The Angels are enjoying a 3-year streak of winning their division championship.  A four-peat will not come easy in 2010.

Team Score: 6.85

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By Jimmy, 2/19/2010 6:17 pm

We’re about to hit the ground running on our annual 2010 MLB team previews, and I just wanted to give an introduction to my methodology before actually posting the previews.

My approach is similar to the same one I used last year; an attempt to isolate run scoring and run prevention via grades given to the position players, rotation, and bullpen.  This year, I’ve decided to go with a numerical 1-10 projection scale, since it’s a bit more transparent than the A-F grades I gave last year.  The scale works like this: based on the numerical grade I assign each player, I am projecting them to be a certain type of player in 2010. 

• 10- Elite players.  Only a dozen or so offensive 10′s exist, maybe five starting pitchers in all of MLB are 10′s.  10′s are typically slam dunk Hall of Famers if they remain healthy. Example: Albert Pujols.
• 9 – A great player.  Players who are strong All-Star candidates, though not quite elite.  Possible Hall of Famers if they are lucky enough to have a long career without too many injuries. Example: Mark Teixeira 
• 8 – A very good player.  Someone who might be a fringe All-Star, but they have some minor yet noticeable holes in their game that keep them out of the top categories.  Example: Josh Beckett
• 7 - A good player.   Definitely above average, someone who is a household name amongst casual fans, but not an All-Star.  Example: Shin Soo-Choo
• 6 – An above average player.  Basically, your typical starter on a bad team.  Your girlfriend probably doesn’t know who he is. Example: Kevin Kouzmanoff
• 5 – An average MLB player.  A great guy to have on the bench.  You don’t want too many 5′s in your starting lineup, but one or two are fine stopgaps. Example: Bobby Crosby
• 4 - A below-average major leaguer.  Clearly someone you do not want seeing too much playing time.  A competent bench option, someone who won’t embarrass himself if called upon to fill in for injured starters.  Example: Eric Hinske
• 3 - An AAAA caliber player.  If he has option years left, he’ll probably be traveling quite a bit over the course of the year.  Would be a regular player only on a bad team.  Example: Bill Hall
• 2 – Your typical AAA caliber player.  Will have great difficulty competing at the MLB level.  Someone who would usually be summoned when rosters expand on September 1st.  Example: Alex Cora
• 1 - A player who has no business being in the Major Leagues.  He is on the roster for one of two reasons: a) the team airplane pulled a Marshall University, or b) he is the owner’s godson.   Example: Nick Green               

The ratings for a projected starting lineup on a fictional team would probably look something like this:

And the bench would also be graded:

You might consider this a cop-out, but I’m refraining from grading catchers on their fielding skills.  There’s just not enough data readily available, and I refuse to go by CS rates alone (since that’s such a small part of what actually happens behind the plate).

Bench scores would be weighted as 1/5 of the total offensive score. 

We would then move on to the starting pitchers:

Of course, pitchers would only receive one grade.  The final piece would be the bullpen:

To make things simple, I’m considering every non closer a middle-reliever (MR).  Each team will probably have one closer (CL), unless the role is completely undecided, a la the 2003 Red Sox.

Run prevention is 50% of the team score, with the other 50% being run production.  90% of run production is pitching, with 10% being defense (the 90/10 thing is completely pulled out of my ass.  I used 95/5 last year, and in retrospect, it seems like I undervalued fielding.  This is all trial by error).  2/3 of pitching is determined by the starters’ score, with the remaining 1/3 coming from the bullpen. 

That’s pretty much how the system works.  The above team, while scoring a 9.9 in a melodiousness scale, would rate as a 6.54 on the field.