Roster Analysis:

Despite having a few very good players entering their prime (Kemp, Kershaw, Billingsley, Ethier), this team will not be very good, due to a few large weaknesses in the lineup and the back of the rotation/bullpen. The Dodgers haven’t finished in last place in 19 years. They could very well contend for that dubious accomplishment in 2011.

Projected Record: 72-90

Orioles 2010 Pythagorean Record: 63-99

Roster Analysis:

The O’s management has very creatively improved the offense with guys who, while not superstars, should score a few more runs and make a few more plays than the dreck they had on the field last year. They’ll be hoping that their young, promising starters improve enough to ensure the pitching staff isn’t a complete abortion like it was last season. Personally, I think the 2009 Jeremy Guthrie (5+ ERA) is the guy you’ll be seeing if we assume luck-neutral environment. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, and he’s not a ground ball pitcher. Frankly, he shouldn’t be that good.

While they should be a bit better, keep in mind that this was basically a 100-loss team in 2010. They brought in some interesting low-cost, past-their-prime players to fill gaps, but it would take a miracle for this team to even approach a .500 season, especially given their divisional opponents. They’ll win enough games to avoid being a complete embarrassment, but they’ll lose enough games to make Showalter look like a jackass.

Projected record: 74-88

After a 14-year hiatus from the playoffs and 9 straight losing seasons, manager Dusty Baker oiled up the Big Red Machine and flipped the flipped the “ON” switch, leading them to a 1st place finish in the NL Central last year. Cincinnati’s success was mostly due to their powerful offense, highlighted by first baseman Joey Votto’s stunning MVP performance (.324/.424/.600).

All of this happened despite a disappointing year from prized starter Edinson Volquez, who missed time due to Tommy John surgery and also served a 50-game suspension for violating MLB’s drug policy (fortunately for the Reds, these things happened concurrently). Now that Volquez appears to be healthy and a few other changes have taken place, how does the 2011 roster look?

Why am I predicting a slight decline for Votto? Only because he set the bar so incredibly high in the previous season. Matching his 2010 results will be very difficult. Put it this way, he can still have a great season at the plate in 2011 while still being slightly less productive (1 or 2 less wins). This is what I’m betting on.

The rest of the downgrades are pretty standard. Rolen and Hernandez are both coming off of very good years, but both players are in their late 30′s and a solid bet to decline a bit. Jay Bruce, as good as he was last season, might be even better in 2011.

While the offense can’t really be expected to significantly improve upon their success from the previous season, the pitching staff will likely be a little better. A healthy Volquez and another year of seasoning from Cueto, Bailey, and Wood translates into one of the most promising young rotations in the National League. And while the bullpen will miss the services of the ageless wonder that is Arthur Rhodes, Aroldis Chapman will make an immediate impact in the late innings, and could even take over the closer’s role if Cordero struggles.

Best Case Scenario: Votto continues to wreak havoc upon NL pitchers, and usurps the “best hitter in baseball” tag from Albert Pujols after his second-straight MVP season. The rotation stays healthy, and the Reds approach 100 wins.

Worst Case Scenario: Votto regresses into a mortal power hitting first baseman, and one or more key starters get hurt. St. Louis leaves the Reds in their dust. Record is slightly above .500.

Conclusion: This is a team that is set to be very good for a very long time, both in pitching and offense. Anything less than a Wild Card berth in 2011 will be a disappointment.

Projected record: 95-67

Why "Inverted W"? Why not just call it "The M"? /seinfeld

2010 Pythagorean Record: 72-90
Run Scoring: 4.04 runs per game (14 out of 16)
Run Prevention: 4.58 runs per game (12 out of 16)

Coming into last season, a realistic goal for the 2010 Nationals was to not be the worst team in the major leagues.  With a little bit of help, they made it happen.  Despite clearing that lofty benchmark, the season was not without frustration, as young superstar pitcher Stephen Strasburg required Tommy John surgery after only 12 starts in the big leagues.

During this offseason, perhaps looking to fill some seats in lieu of Strasburg’s injury, the Nationals shocked the baseball world by signing free-agent outfielder Jayson Werth to a 7 year/$126 MM deal.  Just about everyone outside of DC (myself included) questioned why a team clearly in rebuilding mode would make such a move.

So, can the Nationals compete in the NL East with Strasburg a virtual non-factor in 2011?  I’ll save you the suspense; probably not.  Let’s look at the roster:

When the Nats let Adam Dunn leave via free agency, they washed away any net offensive potential added with the Werth signing. The end result is a lineup that isn’t very different from the 2010 version. Zimmerman is a true superstar and should get better as he enters his prime, and Ramos and Espinosa are both promising young players, but this is a crew that won’t be scoring many runs.

The view from the pitcher’s mound doesn’t get much better. Livan Hernandez is legendary for his rubber arm at this point, but 2010 was the first time in 5 years that he finished with an ERA under 4.50. Given his age and track record, a regression is almost a certainty. Marquis and Lannan are batting practice machines who would have trouble cracking most AAA rotations. Zimmerman has some potential, but he’s never pitched more than 134 innings in one season during his professional career. Tom Gorzelanny is probably the best healthy starting pitcher on the team right now.

The bullpen was Washington’s strength in 2010. They weren’t just good, they were terrific. After losing Matt Capps and Joel Peralta along with the likely regressions of guys like Clippard and Burnett, the relief corps should be just about average in 2011.

Best Case Scenario: Zimmerman provides MVP-caliber results, Jayson Werth hits around 40 home runs, Pudge Rodriguez retires and allows Wilson Ramos to become the full-time catcher. Stephen Strasburg returns at the end of the season and has a couple of dominant starts, restoring some hope. Nats finish a tad under .500.

Worst Case Scenario: Strasburg suffers a setback and does not sniff a pitcher’s mound in 2011. Jayson Werth shows signs of aging, giving the front office a terrifying sense of buyer’s remorse on that 7 year deal. Zimmerman regresses a bit, and the Nats lose over 100 games (again).

Conclusion: It’s all about the prospects, baby. Fans should keep an eye on top draft pick Bryce Harper, likely to start the season in High-A and already campaigning for a September call-up. After seeing what he did as a 17-year-old in junior college, he could be the real deal.

Projected record: 71-91

Managers should really adhere to the MLB uniform rules, like they did in the old days...wait, what?

2010 Record: 81-81
Run Scoring: 4.09 runs per game (11th out of 14)
Run Prevention: 3.86 runs per game (1st out of 14) 

The A’s 2nd place finish in the AL West last season was a tad unexpected, as the team’s young pitching staff managed to dominate the American League.  Under the tutelage of pitching coach Curt Young, the A’s rotation has seemingly perfected the art of inducing ground balls to a science, as they managed to prevent runs despite modest strikeout rates. 

As most of their key pitchers are cost-controlled and will be returning in 2011, the A’s spent the offseason finding creative ways to improve their glaring weakness: offense.  The team is finally rid of Eric Chavez after years of gauze-wrapped disappointment, and Rajai Davis will no longer be creating outs. 

While the offense should be better, the biggest question facing this team will be whether or not the Oakland pitching staff can rediscover the magic they found in 2010 now that Curt Young has been ripped away by an evil big-market team. 

Let’s look at the projected roster: 

Suzuki and Kouzmanoff, both in their prime, should hit a little bit better than they did in 2010, while Ellis is a good bet to regress as he enters his mid-thirties.  DeJesus and Willingham are both significant improvements to what was an anemic Oakland outfield last year, while Coco Crisp should be decent in centerfield as long as he remains healthy. 

As much as I like Trevor Cahill, I can’t see him continuing to post an ERA under 3.00 with that strikeout rate of his.  He’ll be decent, but expect a few more batted balls to sneak through in 2011.  However, the rotation as a whole should perform reasonably well. 

Best Case Scenario: Barton continues to add power and becomes Kevin Youkilis 2.0, Matsui rakes, the rotation pitches as well as they did last year, and the A’s win roughly 95 games and beat out Texas for the AL West title. 

Worst Case Scenario: Willingham struggles against AL pitching, Matsui and Ellis decline drastically, and the rotation proves that 2010 was a fluke.  A’s finish in 3rd place, a few games under .500. 

Conclusion: This is a team whose Pythagorean record in 2010 was 85-77, and they appear to have addressed several weaknesses this offseason.  With a slew of good, young pitchers under their control and an improving offense, we could be seeing the beginning of a steak of success similar to 2000-2003 (i.e. the “Moneyball” years). 

Projected record: 91-71

If you are 30-ish, and a nerd, this image will likely bring back memories.

2010 Record: 57-105
Run Scoring: 3.62 runs per game (16th out of 16)
Run Prevention: 5.35 runs per game (16th out of 16th)

There’s not a whole lot to be said.  The Pirates, a team that has been bad for nearly 20 years, were historically terrible in 2010.  By far the worst team in baseball; the team with the worst offense and the worst pitching.  Their 105 losses were the highest total by the franchise since 1952.

Last year’s atrocities aside, there is a glass-half full way to look at this team.  First and foremost: things can only get better from here.  The Pirates cannot lose more than 105 games (right? RIGHT?).  Secondly, and most importantly, the team features some very talented young players with very high ceilings.  Both Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez are possible superstars in the making, and both Neil Walker and Jose Tabata appear to be decent players on the rise.

The harsh reality, however, is that the team’s ownership doesn’t seem to be interested in spending money.  Hopeful Pirates fans might point to the turnaround experienced by the Detroit Tigers after their 119 loss season in 2003, but unlike the Pirates, the Tigers ownership has been willing to sign big paychecks.  The team hasn’t been good enough in the draft to rely on cost-controlled talent like Tampa Bay has done in recent years (it’s a pity that they were just “good” enough to miss the boat on Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg).

With all that said, let’s  see how the team looks going into the 2011 season:

Like I mentioned earlier, there are a few reasons to tune into Pirates games in 2011.  Pedro Alvarez will be 24-years-old, and should provide some much-needed offense after fully usurping the job from Andy Laroche.  Also, Andrew McCutchen could develop into one of the best centerfielders in the game in the next year or two.

While the offense should improve a bit, the pitching will still be terrible.  The Pirates late-inning bullpen options  (Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan) are decent, but they shouldn’t be expected to replicate last year’s success, and the team’s awful starting rotation won’t allow them to pitch with the lead very often.

Best Case Scenario: Alvarez emerges as an elite offensive third baseman, and McCutchen and Walker continue to improve.  The Pirates finish in last place again, but not by a large margin.

Worst Case Scenario: One of their young players gets hurt, and the team replicates 2010.

Conclusion: The highlight of the team’s summer will be making the first overall selection in the 2011 Amateur Draft this June.  They really can’t afford screw that one up.

Projected record: 64-98

My grading system will go like this:

Once I tally up all of the expected changes, I’ll try to come up with a projected 2011 record based on their 2010 record.  Most of the changes we’ll see are slight upgrades and downgrades.  An upgrade / downgrade will sometimes occur even when dealing with the same player in 2010 and ’11; the player could be getting older, entering his prime, coming off of an injury plagued or lucky 2010 season, etc.  You won’t see very many “massive” changes in either direction.  A massive upgrade is basically the difference between a replacement level player and an All-Star.

I’ll be rating each starting position and rotation spot individually, and bench units and bullpens as a whole, but in the case of bullpens, you can multiply the win/loss effect by 2.

I’m in the process of writing the first preview now, so we’ll see how this looks on paper in the next day or so.

Right now, the Red Sox bullpen is looking like this:

Jonathan Papelbon, RHP
Dan Bard, RHP
Bobby Jenks, RHP
Dan Wheeler, RHP
Scott Atchison, RHP
Tim Wakefield, RHP
Obligatory Lefty, LHP

“Obligatory Lefty” will be one out of a group of Rich Hill, Felix Doubront, Lenny DiNardo, and Andrew Miller.  It probably won’t be decided until late March, but I’ll make a very premature prediction: Rich Hill makes the team, Felix Doubront joins the rotation in Pawtucket in an effort to develop him as a starting pitcher, Lenny DiNardo carpools with Doubront to Pawtucket, and Andrew Miller is released during Spring Training.

Note: that batting order is how I would arrange it against a right-handed starting pitcher.  I’m not really sure what Terry Francona’s plans are.  Pete Abraham mentioned the idea of Crawford hitting third, which I’m not a fan of at all.

• Names in Blue: players who are certain to keep their spot if healthy
• Names in Green: players who would probably be adequate in their roles, but could be supplanted by an acquisition
• Names in Red: players who aren’t really MLB-quality, and are good bets to be replaced.  In fact, my next post will be looking at some available pitchers who the Sox could target to fill these gaps.

The contract is for 7 years and $142 million.  Considering the fact that Jayson Werth got 7 years and only $2.3 million less per year in average annual value, the money seems fair.

As I pointed out, Crawford won’t hit for much power in Fenway.  However, he’ll do pretty much everything else.

I’ll have more on this later.  As it stands right now, it appears that the Red Sox are the big winners of Offseason 2011.