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By Jimmy, 3/12/2009 10:47 am

Projected 2009 Rotation:

Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Randy Johnson
Jonathan Sanchez

Oddly enough, the worst pitcher in this rotation is probably the guy who makes the most money.  Barry Zito’s one strength at this point is the ability to eat innings.  We’ve been waiting for him to recapture that magic he had 5 years ago in Oakland, but now that he’s turning 31 and his fastball is sitting at 85 MPH and he walks nearly as many guys as he strikes out, it’s time to accept that he’s not going to be any better than league average (and even hoping for league average is a stretch).

Tim Lincecum is now a baseball folk hero, and rightfully so. (”Hey, look! That short guy is good at stuff!”)  A reasonable analysis would predict at least a modest decline from his 10.5 K/9 Cy Young season in 2008, but we can still expect him to be among the top 5 pitchers in the NL.  Matt Cain is again a candidate to break out and join Lincecum at that same elite table, and Jonathan Sanchez might be the best #5 starter in the NL.

I won’t even waste time predicting what Randy Johnson will do this year.  He’s not human; he’s actually some sort of prehistoric bird, and thus is not subject to the same effects of age as you and me.  With his crazy pterodactyl muscles and joints, he could very well throw another 180 innings at the age of 45.  Even if he can’t, Noah Lowry provides some decent insurance.

Rotation Grade: A-

Projected 2009 Bullpen:

Brian Wilson (CL)
Jeremy Affeldt
Bobby Howry
Jack Taschner
Alex Hinshaw
Keiichi Yabu
Noah Lowry

The addition of Affeldt and Howry help a thin bullpen. Brian Wilson is probably better than his 4.62 ERA last year (3.81 FIP), but he’s really just another guy among a group of mediocre relievers.  Taschner and Hinshaw both walk too many guys for my liking, and Yabu will be 40 this year.  The Giants do have future closer Sergio Romo waiting in the wings, but he’s not completely healthy at this point.

Bullpen Grade: D+

Projected 2009 Offense:

1) Randy Winn – RF
2) Edgar Renteria – SS
3) Fred Lewis – LF
4) Aaron Rowand – CF
5) Pablo Sandoval – 3B
6) Bengie Molina – C
7) Travis Ishikawa – 1B
8) Kevin Frandsen – 2B

Bench:

Nate Schierholtz – OF
Juan Uribe – 2B/SS
Rich Aurilla – 1B/3B
Stephen Holm – C
Eugenio Velez – IF/OF

There’s not really much to say.  My batting order is irrelevant; Bruce Bochy likes to bat Sandoval 3rd and Molina 4th.  The best hitter on the team is probably Schierholtz, wasting away on the bench.

Offense Grade: F+

Projected 2009 Fielding:

Sandoval is inexperienced at 3B, not to mention fairly obese, so I think I’m dubious of his abilities at that position.  Edgar Renteria, as you know, is no longer a good defensive shortstop.  I’m going to plead ignorance on the right side of that infield (Frandsen and Ishikawa, just not much statistically significant data available), so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume average gloves for both.  The outfield of Winn-Rowand-Lewis is pretty good, and Molina is still a decent backstop despite his age.

Defensive Grade: C+

When you hear people repeat those tired “PITCHING IS ALL THAT MATTERS” type platitutes, just point them in the direction of the 2009 San Francisco Giants.  This team has a terrific rotation, and yet, the odds of them making the playoffs are similar to the odds of Bernie Madoff being elected mayor of New York.

Overall Grade: 45.1 (C-)

Next up: A team the Red Sox will see plenty of.  Hopefully the Sox will be able to keep the Devil down in the hole.

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By Jimmy, 3/2/2009 9:01 am

2008 was a tough year in Detroit.  Both of the major auto companies contracted corporate AIDS, and watched their stock prices plummet like t-cell totals.  Eminem’s popularity has faded.  And yes, the Detroit Tigers, the sexy pre-season pick to win it all last season, staggered to an unexpected last-place finish in 2008.  Now, the “Big Two” auto makers could conceivably improve upon their miserable year, and Eminem could release a new album in which he fantasizes about killing another family member, but can the Tigers claw their way out of the cellar?  Let’s see.

Detroit Tigers
2008 Pythagorean Record: 78-84
2008 Finish: 5th place, AL Central

Projected 2009 Rotation:

1) Justin Verlander
2) Jeremy Bonderman
3) Armando Galarraga
4) Edwin Jackson
5) Zach Miner

Let’s talk about ERA and FIP.  ERA, or “Earned Run Average”, is basically a measure of how effective a pitcher was at preventing runs from scoring.  While ERA is probably the most commonly used pitching metric these days, its major flaw is that it can be skewed by the quality of defensive plays (i.e., a slick-fielding shortstop could snag a line drive that would normally go for a double, thereby reducing his pitcher’s ERA even though the pitcher just gave up a bullet).  FIP, or “Fielding Independent Pitching”, attempts to factor out the effect of fielders on ERA.  You can subtract one from the other and get a rough idea on how lucky (or unlucky) a pitcher was in 2008.  Armando Galarraga, Detroit’s best starter last season, had the highest FIP-ERA difference in the majors.  So, it can be assumed that he was a lucky, and will probably come down to Earth next season.

Injuries to Jeremy Bonderman, lackluster performances form ace Justin Verlander, and the general putridity of Nate Robertson helped the Tigers to a last place finish.  They acquired Edwin Jackson from the Rays to bolster what was an disappointing rotation in 2008, and Zach Minor could be decent (assuming he manages to win that 5th spot over Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson – two of the worst starting pitchers in baseball).  Verlander still has some of the best stuff in the game and could easily rebound, and Bonderman might be a good #2 if healthy.  Even if Galarraga’s carriage turns into a pumpkin, the rotation could still be OK.

Rotation Grade: C

Projected 2009 Bullpen:

Fernando Rodney (CL)
Joel Zumaya
Brandon Lyon
Bobby Seay
Juan Rincon
Nate Robertson
Dontrelle Willis

There’s no real word on who the closer will be in Detroit.  Brandon Lyon might begin the year in the role, but I’ll wager 50 gold sovereigns that he doesn’t last 2 months there.  Zumaya and Rodney are both more overpowering and effective than Lyon.  Rodney is less of a gimp than Zumaya, so assume he spends more time in the closer’s role over the course of the season.  Willis and Robertson will both start games here and there, and nether has ever spent any prolonged time in the bullpen, but these guys are both batting practice pitchers right now.  Maybe a bullpen stint can change their approach and help them regain the effectiveness they’ve lost?

Overall, it’s a bullpen with some decent late-inning options and plenty of long relief depth available.  The only issue will be whether or not Brandon Lyon has incriminating photos of Jim Leyland along with the various other MLB managers he’s blackmailed over the past several years.

Bullpen Grade: C+

Projected 2009 Offense

1) Curtis Granderson CF
2) Placido Polanco 2B
3) Magglio Ordonez RF
4) Miguel Cabrera 1B
5) Carlos Guillen LF
6) Gary Sheffield DH
7) Brandon Inge 3B
8) Gerald Laird C
9) Adam Everett SS

Bench:

Marcus Thames – OF
Ramon Santiago – INF
Matt Trainor – C
Jeff Larish – 1B/DH

The offensive potential will decrease a bit from 2008, as Ivan Rodriguez and Edgar Renteria have been replaced by Gerald Laird and Adam Everett.  It’s one of the better lineups in the American League, especially 1 through 5, but there are question marks in the Motor City.  You know Cabrera will be a monster, but what about Ordonez, Polanco, and Guillen, all in their mid-30’s?  What about the geriatric (future Hall of Famer?) Gary Sheffield, who turned 40 last November?  Can these guys consistently hit over the course of the season?  My take on this lineup can be best described as cautiously enthusiastic.

Offense Grade: B

Fielding Projection

It’s pretty clear that the Tigers made some moves with leather in mind, as both Adam Everett and Gerald Laird immediately improve their respective positions.  Carlos Guillen was a terrible infielder, but he’ll move over to LF and Brandon Inge (a pretty good fielder) will assume 3B duties. Polanco is a great defensive 2B, Granderson is above average in CF, and Ordonez is just about average in RF.  Cabrera and Guillen are both butchers, but will have their shoddy gloves mitigated at 1B and LF.

Defensive Grade: B+

I think the Tigers rotation is better than their collective 2008 performance, especially in the case Justin Verlander, one of the most talented young pitchers in the league.  The offense should be close to what it was last year, and Detroit’s fielding should improve tenfold.  Expect the Tigers to exit the basement, and perhaps make a little noise in a weak AL Central in 2009.

Overall Grade: 66.2 (B-)

Next up: we visit the land of free love, Detective Adrian Monk, and BALCO. 

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By Jimmy, 2/25/2009 10:21 am

Sometimes, I think about the Houston Astros, and I get a little depressed.  I was a child of the late 1980’s, and nothing represented the 1980’s better than the old Astros “stripe” uniform.  So, thinking about the Astros will inevitably get me thinking about that uniform, which in turn gets me thinking about carefree, innocent times.  Uniforms sure are different these days.  Everything is in shades of gray.  Streamlined, safely devoid of character and innovation.  Spawned from lemming focus groups with the purpose of selling to everyone while offending no one.  The “stripe” uniforms are never coming back, and neither are those carefree days.  If the world economy does eventually collapse, maybe I’ll think about that orange and red stripe and smile for a moment.

2009 projected rotation:

1) Roy Oswalt
2) Wandy Rodriguez
3) Brian Moehler
4) Mike Hampton
5) Brandon Backe

Oswalt, a 3-time All-Star and future Hall of Famer (barring catastrophic injury) will anchor a very thin rotation.  Oswalt himself will be 32 in August and posted the lowest ERA+ of his 8 year career in 2008 (although still very good -120).  Rodriguez had himself a career year at age 29 last season, as his K rate has gradually risen in each year he’s been in the league.  Now that he’s 30, we should at least expect some sort of normalization to that trend.

One we get past Rodriguez…wait for it…wait for it…”Houston, we have a problem!”.  Ha! Yes, I said it.  I was up all night trying to figure out how I could work that line into the analysis, and I just went for it, you know?  But, seriously though, the back-end of that rotation is pretty terrible.  I’ll throw one more NASA analogy at you: relying at Mike Hampton to start 32 games is like trying to fly to the moon in a WWI-era biplane.  Okay, I’m done.

Rotation Grade: D+

Projected 2009 Bullpen:

Jose Valverde (CL)
LaTroy Hawkins
Doug Brocail
Geoff Geary
Wesley Wright
Tim Byrdak
Chris Sampson

Valverde’s a decent swing-and-miss closer.  One are where I feel the pen is a little shaky is the bridge from the young relievers to Valverde; Hawkins is 36 and Brocail will be 42 in May.  If anything, there’s plenty of experience available to throw onto the field in late innings of tight ballgames, but can those guys really keep it up over a long season?  Geary’s a guy with a career ERA+ of 123 and a ground ball rate near 50%.  He’s only allowed 30 HRs in over 300 career innings between Houston and Philly, so he should continue to be decent in Enron…er…Minute Maid Park .  Wright is a live arm with a high K rate and plenty of potential, and Sampson is your typical league-average long-man (he’ll most likely get some starts given the space shuttle explosion that is the rotation).

Bullpen Grade: B-

Projected 2009 Offense:

1) Kaz Matsui 2B
2) Hunter Pence RF
3) Lance Berkman 1B
4) Carlos Lee LF
5) Miguel Tejada SS
6) Geoff Blum 3B
7) J.R. Towles C
8) Michael Bourn CF

Bench:

Humberto Quintero C
Aaron Boone INF
Darin Erstad OF
Jason Michaels OF
Edwin Maysonet SS

An outstanding lineup up top, but not a lot of offensive support in the bottom half.  A key to Houston’s success will be the health of guys like Lee and Tejada, because that bench is incredibly thin.  To get an idea of just how thin Houston’s reserve pool is, Baseball Prospectus is predicting that Koby Clemens (Roger’s 22-year-old son, has yet to reach Double-A) will make an appearance on the MLB roster at some point in 2009.  Lance Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game and he will be surrounded by run-producers, so Houston should score quite a few runs despite the lackluster 6-7-8 hitters in this lineup.

Offensive Grade: B-

Fielding Projection:

Miguel Tejada has been repeatedly panned by the baseball cognoscenti as one of those Jeter-esque “all-bat, no-glove” shortstops, but he actually did improve quite a bit in his first season in the NL.  It’s odd that his defensive prowess is negatively correlated to his bat, and one might theorize that it is a loss in bulk leading to his extra mobility.  Matsui, Blum, Bourn, and Pence are all slightly above-average fielders.  Berkman and Lee are…good hitters.

Fielding Grade: C+

Despite a rotation which might be the thinnest in baseball, Houston does have some Cinderella potential given their powerful lineup and their versatile bullpen.  Unfortunately, they are in that pesky 6-team division, and that rotation might be subjected to some serious abuse against the likes of Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun.  Even if they do find themselves contending in July, there’s not much hope for the Astros pulling off a mid-season trade for pitching, as their minor league system is very shallow.

Overall Grade: 58.6 (C+) 

Next up: This team plays in my favorite MLB stadium (out of the 12 or so I’ve visited), but my least favorite neighborhood.  A terrific stadium surrounded by a sea of squalor and neglect.

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By Jimmy, 2/23/2009 10:31 am

Supposedly the Academy Awards are being distributed as I type this.  I’m not watching, but I’m willing to bet my mortgage that Heath Ledger will posthumously win the award for Best Supporting Actor.  Now, I did see the Dark Knight and I thought it was well done, and Ledger was probably at least as good as Jack Nicholson was in the same role years ago.  However, I’ve been wondering…how hard is it to play a crazy guy, to produce a gravelly voice and laugh frantically and wear makeup and act like a psychopath?  I contend that it’s relatively easy for trained actors to do that sort of thing, yet it’s these types of roles that draw the most attention.  I guess the point I’m trying to make is this: if this guy didn’t eat a bunch of pills and off himself, do we really think he’d win an Oscar for his role as “The Joker”?  Something to ponder.

On to our next team.

Florida Marlins
2008 Pythagorean Record: 81-81
2008 Finish: 3rd place, NL East

2009 Projected Rotation:

1) Ricky Nolasco
2) Josh Johnson
3) Anibal Sanchez
4) Andrew Miller
5) Chris Volstad

A couple of nights ago I was watching the MLB Network, and Harold Reynolds was on with a few other guys.  He was talking about teams with good rotations, and claimed that Florida might have the best front three in the game.  My initial thought after hearing this was that Harold must have licked a brightly-colored South American toad before the broadcast.  But then I realized that Reynolds probably misspoke, he was most likely talking about Tampa Bay.

The main problem with Florida’s rotation isn’t the inexperience (although that is a problem), it’s that 4 of these guys are injury risks, and the one guy who isn’t (Volstad) is 22-years-old and one year removed from High-A ball.  Nolasco was Florida’s best starter in 2008, but pitched only a handful of innings in 2007.  Miller, Johnson, and Sanchez were all hurt at some point in 2008.  They are reportedly healthy now, but if one or more of these guys go down in 2009, there isn’t much in the way of depth to replace them.  Florida has drawn buckets of talent from their prospect well very early as they are prone to do, and now there isn’t much left down there.  If I were grading this group on upside they might get an “A”.  Unfortunately, I have to consider how well I think they’ll fare in 2009 alone.

Rotation Grade: D

2009 Projected Bullpen:

Matt Lindstrom (CL)
Leo Nunez
Scott Proctor
Reynel Pinto
Logan Kensing
Taylor Tankersley
Jose Ceda

The hard-throwing Lindstrom inherits the closer’s role from Kevin Gregg (traded to the Cubs), and he’ll be set-up by newcomers Leo Nunez and Scott Proctor.  Kensing, Pinto, and Tankersley are all younger guys who’ve have had control problems in their MLB careers.  Lindstrom is a true talent and there’s some upside among the younger kids, but the macro picture of this bullpen looks like a scattered mess of flotsam and jetsam.  Scott Procter?  Ugh.

Bullpen Grade: D+

2009 Projected Offense:

1) Cameron Maybin – CF
2) Jeremy Hermida – RF
3) Hanley Ramirez – SS
4) Dan Uggla – 2B
5) Cody Ross – LF
6) Jorge Cantu – 3B
7) John Baker – C
8) Gaby Sanchez – 1B

Bench:

Dallas McPherson – 3B
Wes Helms – 1B
Alfredo Amezaga – CF/SS/2B
Luis Gonzalez – OF
Mike Rabelo – C

Gone are Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham, and in their place are two rookies who have not played a single game in AAA.  Maybin and Sanchez were both decent in AA (.277/.375/.456 and .314/.404/.513 respectively) but it will be difficult for them to perform at even league average levels out of the gate.  To be fair, I would have applied that same prognosis to Hanley Ramirez in the spring of 2006, and it would have looked rather foolish now.  Hey, Florida likes ‘em young.  Sometimes it actually works out.

As a whole, the lineup is decent.  Ramirez is terrific of course, Uggla is one of the best offensive second basemen in the game, and Hermida, Ross, and Baker are all above average offensive players at their positions.  I’m not entirely sold on the Jorge Cantu renaissance, but if the Bad Jorge shows up in 2009, the Fish do have Dallas McPherson available (.275/.379/ .618 in the PCL last year).

Offensive Grade: B-

2009 Fielding Projection:

It’s always difficult to analyze the defense of rookies.  Not a ton of defensive analysis is published from the minor league levels, but the folks at www.minorleaguesplits.com at least give it a try.  However, sometimes there are problems with inconsistency (just as there are with the MLB fielding data I reference from time to time).  According to the above website, Cameron Maybin was great defensively in 2006, terrible in 2007, and just about average in 2008.  We do know that he’s very quick and thus would probably cover lots of ground, so we’ll assume he’s at least average in CF in 2009.  The other two outfielders are above average.

The problem is Florida’s infield.  The left side of that infield might be the worst in the Major Leagues, and Uggla’s not exactly Johnny Evers himself.

Defensive Grade: D+

The Marlins were one of the more surprising teams in baseball last year, and would have received much more national love were it not for their bottom-feeding cousins from across the peninsula.  Larry Beinfest continues to face the challenge of maintaining talent while working with a microscopic budget and a non-existent fan base.  As they always do, the Fish are counting on the performances of several players who would still be in the minor leagues were they in different organizations.

At the very least, the explosive lineup will cause a stir among the handful of fans at Dolphins Stadium.

Overall Grade: 51.7 (C/C-)

Next Up: Ground Control to Major Tom, Your 3 through 5 Starters are Awful, There’s Something Wrong, Can You Hear Me Major Tom…Can You Hear Me Major Tom…

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By Jimmy, 2/19/2009 10:22 am

Red Sox spring training camp has been the joyous Sea of Tranquility we’ve all expected.  Every single player on the roster is in the best shape of his career.  Mike Lowell can crush cinder blocks with hips, like nutcrackers with an almond.  David Ortiz’s wrist is as sinewy as a cord of lumber.  Julio Lugo has put on 50 pounds of pure muscle with an offseason diet of black beans and 12-grain bread.  And his cousin wasn’t doing the shopping for him, either.

Oh, right, there was a public media spat between Sox pitcher Brad Penny and MLB Network hobgoblin Larry Bowa, a bit of tension carrying over from their LA days.  This isn’t a surprise; Penny is known as an easygoing fellow, while Larry Bowa is the textbook manifestation of the Napoleon Complex, just a puss-filled wart of a human being.  Even so, Terry Francona had this to say: “I’m confident you won’t see the back and forth anymore with that”.  Translation: Tito dropped the Hammer of Thor on Penny.  I hope he’s OK.

Let’s see what Billy Beane has cooking in Oakland this year:

Oakland Projected 2009 Rotation:

1) Justin Duchscherer
2) Dana Eveland
3) Sean Gallagher
4) Dallas Braden
5) Gio Gonzalez

Duchscherer was on track for a Cy Young caliber season in 2008 before suffering a hip injury.  Reports indicate that he should be ready to start on Opening Day, and while he probably won’t provide a sub-3 ERA all season long, he’s most likely the best starter in this rotation.  Eveland could be league average if he throws strikes and keeps the ball down, but he’s not overpowering at all.  Braden can be overpowering, but hasn’t thrown more than 150 innings in a season.  I went to Stonehill College with 12 or 13 guys named Sean Gallagher, so maybe one of them pitches for the A’s now.  I hope he can score me tickets.  Gonzalez will compete for that 5th spot with Josh Outman (Trevor Cahill is a dark horse).  As they usually are, the Oakland organization is stocked with young arms.  The bad news is, the best of these arms are not ready for major league action: Cahill and Brett Anderson.  These guys are probably a year away from having any sort of success at the MLB level, and the bulk of the starters penciled into this rotation do not have tremendous near-term upside.

Rotation Grade: D+

Oakland Projected 2009 Bullpen:

Brad Ziegler
Joey Devine
Jerry Blevins
Russ Springer
Michael Wuertz
Santiago Casilla
Josh Outman

Gone is closer Huston Street, packaged to Colorado for big bopper Matt Holliday.  Even so, the Oakland bullpen should be pretty good next year.  Devine and Ziegler were both outstanding in 2008, finishing 6th and 8th in Al Rookie of the Year balloting respectively (pretty impressive for middle relievers).  They combined to have a 0.85 ERA over 105.1 innings, only 2 HR’s allowed.  Those numbers are unearthly and probably unrepeatable, but a competent projection would have both of these guys sitting in the 2.50 ERA range under normal circumstances. Blevins has averaged nearly 11 K/9 in his professional career, and should be a very solid setup man.  Wuertz and Casilla are both league average at worst, and Russ Springer will be playing the role of the obligatory grizzled veteran in the pen.  A couple of the hot prospects (along with Outman) could be utilized in long-relief roles.  This is a bullpen with a bevy of live arms and high upside, albeit short on experience.

Bullpen Grade: B

Oakland Projected 2009 Offense

1) Ryan Sweeney – CF
2) Mark Ellis – 2B
3) Matt Holliday – LF
4) Jason Giambi – DH
5) Jack Cust – RF
6) Eric Chavez – 3B
7) Kurt Suzuki – C
8) Daric Barton – 1B
9) Bobby Crosby – SS

Bench:

Travis Buck – OF
Rob Bowen – C
Rajai Davis – OF
Cliff Pennington – IF
Jack Hannahan – IF

This is a very Oakland-esque lineup isn’t it?  A bunch of big free-swingers.  Not one base stealer in the bunch (with the exception of Davis on the bench) but plenty of power and plate discipline.  Matt Holliday should be one of the best hitters in the American League.  PECOTA wants to have his children, predicting him to hit .327/.403/.568 in his new environment.  There’s a lot of versatility between DH, 1B, and RF, as Cust, Giambi, Buck, and Barton will all share at bats.  Barton has the most upside of the group, and if he breaks out he’ll nail down the permanent 1B job.  Eric Chavez and Mark Ellis are both wildcards who have been hurt and ineffective of late.  If they return to form, Oakland will turn some heads in the early going.  We’ve been waiting 5 years for Bobby Crosby to turn into Cal Ripken III, and at this point it probably won’t happen.  However, with the power and on-base abilities of the rest of this lineup, he shouldn’t drag down the offense too much.

Offensive Grade: B

Oakland 2009 Fielding Projection:

Intuitively, you’d think Oakland would be a poor defensive team due to the fact that their lineup resembles the Braintree Fire Department softball team.  However, that isn’t really the case at all.  The only big question mark is whether Ryan Sweeney can handle the transition from RF to CF in lieu of the departure of Carlos Gonlzalez.  Nearly everyone else there (especially the infield) is solid with the glove.  Matt Holiday isn’t the butcher you’d expect him to be.  Jack Cust isn’t a good defender, but Travis Buck is…and Buck might actually see more time in RF.

Defensive Grade: B

This team would be scary if not for their lackluster rotation.  Duchscherer could be an ace, but we have to expect him to regress from his monster 2008 season.  The rest of those arms, some promising but some not, could easily get knocked around in a tough American League.  The trade of Rich Harden is looking like a questionable move at this point (assuming they could have shipped someone other than Matt Murton for Matt Holliday this offseason).  Maybe their rotation will prove me wrong.

Overall Grade: 63.8 (B-/C+)  

Next up: we’re going fishing.  (Sails, not tails)

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By Jimmy, 2/17/2009 1:38 pm

As we await A-Rod’s 1 PM press conference, where he will undoubtedly give the public the incontrovertible truth surrounding his illegal performance-enhancing drug abuse ($1,000 says he will take a page out of Andy Pettitte’s playbook and blame it on an injury), let’s take a look at the oldest professional franchise in major American sports.

Projected Rotation:

1) Edinson Volquez
2) Aaron Harang
3) Bronson Arroyo
4) Johnny Cueto
5) Homer Bailey

Everybody loves the Josh Hamilton story, but let’s not forget who he was traded for: a 24-year-old starter who won 17 games, struck out 9.46 hitters per game, and made the All-Star team.  Most projections have Edinson Volquez regressing in 2009, but as long as he keeps those strikeout totals high, he should be able to avoid the long-ball problem which plagues so many pitchers at the Great American Ball Park.  The rest of the rotation is set in stone, with the exception of the 5th spot.  I’d say it’s 50/50 whether Micah Owings or Homer Bailey gets the nod.  I’ll give Bailey the nod, since he still has a very high ceiling whereas Owings does not.  Besides, Owings is a career .319/.355/.552 hitter and might be useful in the bullpen, where he could pinch hit AND pitch.  Volquez and Cueto are both live arms with lots of upside, and Arroyo and Harang are hardened veterans who will throw strikes and be average pitchers at worst.  The major X-factor will be Bailey, who looked more like a bust last season.

Rotation Grade: C+

Projected Bullpen:

Francisco Cordero (CL)
Arthur Rhodes
David Weathers
Mike Lincoln
Bill Bray
Jared Burton
Micah Owings

Cordero isn’t young anymore, but should be at least serviceable in the closer’s role as his K rate stays high enough.  Rhodes and Weathers have both experienced that all-too-familiar career arc: the mid 30’s bullpen renaissance.  Weathers has been more consistent and durable than Rhodes, but both guys should be considered risks at this point in their life cycles.  The rest of these guys (Lincoln, Bray, Burton) have had varying degrees of success in their brief MLB careers, but none of these guys are known for terribly overpowering stuff.  This bullpen could get ugly if those veteran set-up guys can’t hold it together.

Bullpen Grade: C-

Projected Offense:

1) Willy Taveras – CF
2) Edwin Encarnacion – 3B
3) Jay Bruce – RF
4) Joey Votto – 1B
5) Brandon Phillips – 2B
6) Ramon Hernandez – C
7) Alex Gonzalez – SS
8) Jerry Hairston – LF

Bench:

Jaques Jones – OF
Chris Dickinson – OF
Jeff Keppinger – INF
Ryan Hanigan – C
Daryle Ward – 1B

The meat of the order in Cincinnati will be a fun one to watch, as both Bruce and Votto have the potential to emerge as premier hitters in the National League.  However, the loss of Adam Dunn still hurts.  With all of his flaws (offensively and defensively) one cannot describe the difference in production between Dunn and the likes of Jerry Hairston or Jaques Jones.  Other than the gaping crater in left field, the rest of the lineup should be solid.  Willy Taveras might steal over 70 bases under the direction of aggressive manager Dusty Baker.

Offense Grade: B-

Fielding Projection:

The Reds have a good middle infield, assuming the reports on Gonzalez’s fully-healed knee are accurate.  At the corners, the team is weak.  Jay Bruce has a rough year defensively, but he could improve with more experience, as could Joey Votto.  We don’t really know who will be playing in LF for the Reds, and Encarnacion is a poor defensive 3B.  Taveras, with all of his speed, doesn’t cover as much ground as you might expect.

Fielding Grade: C

This team is similar to Kansas City; some promising young starters and a lot of upside in the middle of the lineup.  Unlike KC, the Reds find themselves in a very strong division, and I think their bast-case scenario is a 3rd place finish.  A worst case scenario (Bruce, Votto, or Volquez experience sophmore slumps, Bailey doesn’t pan out) would find them in the cellar.

Overall Grade: 61.25 (C+)

Next up: the birthplace of Ebonics. 

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By Jimmy, 2/12/2009 10:13 am

Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Pythagorean Record: 93-69
2008 Finish: 1st Place, World Series Champions

From the point of view of this Red Sox fan, the Phillies are like an older brother. An older brother who has a coke habit, receives unemployment checks, and is in and out of jail.  While you came up from poverty and graduated medical school, you felt some bittersweet remorse for your brother who just couldn’t seem to get it right, just couldn’t find success the way that you did.

Well, last October, things finally came together for our NL brethren.  The World Series victory was nice to see, not just for the reason mentioned above, but for another reason entirely.  How does the saying go…”the enemy of my enemy is my friend”?  Yes, the Tampa Bay Rays have bumped themselves up on our collective shit list, and watching the Cinderella Story get torn to shreds on national television was nothing short of orgasmic.  Even when the team trotted out one of the Hall & Oates guys to bleat the national anthem, my support did not waiver.  That’s dedication, folks.

So, is the 2009 squad built for a repeat?

Projected Rotation:

1) Cole Hamels
2) Joe Blanton
3) Brett Myers
4) Jamie Moyer
5) Kyle Kendrick

The Phillies will essentially feature the same rotation as last year.  Hamels is one of the best young pitchers in the game.  At age 25, he has never had a season in his professional career that wasn’t excellent.  The one issue you have to keep an eye on is his durability.  Hamels was plagued by injuries throughout his minor league career (but when he was healthy, he racked up a combined 1.43 minor league ERA).  He hasn’t had much of a problem yet in his brief Major League career, but after tossing 228 innings last year, who knows how his arm will react?  Joe Blanton and Brett Myers are both league average guys with solid durability, which brings us to Jamie Moyer.  Jamie is now 46.  Unreal, right?  I only vaguely remember when this guy pitched for the Red Sox, because it was so goddamn long ago.  Eventually, the laws of physics and biology will take their course on him; at this point we are just waiting for that shoe to drop.  The 5th spot in the rotation belonged to Kendrick last season and he’s the favorite to retain that role, but he’ll get some competition from veteran Chan Ho Park and prospect Cesar Carassco.

It’s odd (and not at all something I intended) that the three teams I’ve projected so far have similar rotations. Terrific #1 starters, a couple of league average guys in the middle, and gaping question marks in the back.

Rotation Grade: C+

Projected Bullpen:

Brad Lidge
Ryan Madson
Chad Durbin
Scott Eyre
Clay Condrey
Chan Ho Park
Adam Eaton

J.C. Romero will serve his 50 game suspension, so I’ll leave him out of this analysis.  Philly’s bullpen came up huge last season, with a 3.22 ERA in 483 innings of relief.  The good news is that most of those guys will return in 2009.  The bad news is it’s extremely questionable that Ryan Madsen, Chad Durbin, and Clay Condrey can repeat their 2008 success (144, 152, 134 ERA+, respectively).  The middle relief trio only struck out 6.17 guys per 9 innings collectively.  However, at worst, these guys are above-average relievers.  Closer Brad Lidge seems to have returned to his pre-2005 levels of dominance.  Park and Eaton are both dubious MLB talents at this stage of their careers, but their impact will be mitigated if they happen to pitch unreasonably poorly out of the gate.

Bullpen Grade: B

Projected Offense

1) Jimmy Rollins – SS
2) Shane Victorino – CF
3) Chase Utley – 2B
4) Ryan Howard – 1B
5) Raul Ibanez – LF
6) Jayson Werth – RF
7) Pedro Feliz – 3B
8) Carlos Ruiz – C

Bench:

Matt Stairs – OF
Geoff Jenkins – OF
Ronny Paulino – C
Greg Dobbs – 1B/3B
Eric Bruntlett – 2B/SS

It’s odd that the Phillies won a trophy in a season where the face of their franchise, Jimmy Rollins, had an off-year.  Most projections love him for 2009, including PECOTA (.293/.360/.458 in 651 PAs, 36 steals).  The 3/4 combo of Howard and Utley might be the best in the National League, as both guys could be legitimate MVP candidates.  The bottom of the lineup is OK, but the4re should be enough firepower at the top to score runs in 2009.  The one concern here is the substitution of Raul Ibanez for Pat Burrell, who will play for the Tampa Bay Rays this year.  Ibanez’s addition will make the heart of Philly’s order very left-handed, and thus vulnerable to LOOGY-ism late in the game.  Also, Ibanez will be 37 in June, so a drop in production in possible.  The team does have the benefit of a good, experienced bench, which is always helpful in the NL.

Offensive Grade: B+

Fielding Projection:

The middle infield combo of Rollins and Utley is not only excellent offensively, but defensively as well.  Both guys led the National League in UZR last season at their respective positions.  Shane “The Flyin’ Hawaiian” Victorino assumed full-time CF duties for the first time in his MLB last year, and did the job very well.  Pedro Feliz and Jayson Werth are also among the best fielders at their positions, and the gargantuan Ryan Howard is surprisingly average at first base.  The only area where Philly is weak is in LF, where Ibanez doesn’t have much mobility at all.  But, as I mentioned in the Blue Jays preview, shoddy defense in LF has become the norm in modern MLB baseball.  Overall, this team is excellent defensively.

Defensive Grade: A-

It looks like a team that will contend, but the sum of the parts doesn’t really scream “Championship” to you, does it?  The only major change from 2008 to 2009 is swapping Ibanez for Burrell, which is probably a net loss.  The rotation isn’t very promising outside of the #1 starter, and the bullpen probably overperformed in 2008.  The team was a bit too complacent in the off-season.  They could have really used another starting pitcher, and their solution came in the form of a scrap heap acquisition (i.e. Chan Ho Park).  I’ll be pulling for them to edge out their rivals from Queens, but the odds are not in their favor.  

Overall Grade: 73.5 (B)

Next: we’ll be visiting a city known for great BBQ, and a team with some high-profile fans in the baseball writing community.

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By Jimmy, 2/10/2009 1:16 pm

San Diego Padres

2008 Pythagorean Record: 68-94
2008 Finish: 5th Place

Last year was not a pleasant one for San Diego.  The city saw its property values plummet and its baseball team finish in last place.  Everyone and their mothers predicted the San Francisco Giants to bring up the rear in the NL West last season, but somehow, some way, the Pads managed to edge them out for that dubious honor (and by “edge them out”, I mean they finished 7 games behind the Giants).

Is there a glimpse of hope on the horizon?  While it once seemed like a foregone conclusion that ace pitcher Jake Peavy would be traded away by the cash-strapped team, there might be a change of plans.  The team is in the process of being sold to a group of investors (spearheaded by ex-Manny Ramirez agent Jeff Moorad), and the new owners will likely not be in a rush to gut the franchise of its premier talent, especially a 28-year-old ace pitcher.  Now that Peavy will likely be San Diego’s opening day starter, let’s take a glimpse at the rotation:

Projected Rotation:

1) Jake Peavy
2) Chris Young
3) Cha Seung Baek
4) Josh Geer
5) Kevin Correia

If Peavy stays, the Padres will have a bona fide #1 guy entering his prime, and he’ll be a solid bet to provide at least 180 top-notch innings.  Chris Young missed a bunch of time after getting drilled off the ol’ coconut by a laser beam off the bat of Albert Pujols, but appears to be healthy for 2009.  He’s held hitters to a .224 batting average over his career, and will be effective if healthy (Bill James is predicting a 3.37 ERA over 153 innings).  After Young, things appear to fall apart.  Cha Seung Baek is a league-average guy who keeps the ball in the strike zone but won’t blow anyone away (5.92 K/9 over his career), and the final two sports in the rotation are wide open.  There has been a Mark Prior sighting in San Diego’s spring camp, and he is reportedly throwing.  Since the guy hasn’t worn a game jersey in 2 years, I’ll put the burden of proof on him and keep Correia penciled in the 5th spot (although there will be other candidates: Cesar Carrillo, Chad Reineke, Jae Kuk Ryu, Wade LeBlanc, and Cesar Ramos).  If Jake Peavy is actually traded, this rotation will be in “F” territory.

Rotation Grade: C-

The bullpen will be without a very familiar face, as legend and future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman swaps his surfboard for a home-brewing kit, joining the Milwaukee Brewers.  How does the pen look without him?

Projected Bullpen:

Heath Bell (CL)
Cla Meredith
Mike Adams
Justin Hampson
Mark Worrell
Chris Britton
Jae Kuk Ryu

As much as I hated the Mirabelli for Bard/Meredith swap, I will concede that Cla Meredith is not really the guy you want to hand the 8th-inning to.  But, until Mike Adams returns from injury, he’ll have that responsibility.  Heath Bell was mediocre in the closer’s role last season, but given how he handled himself in 2007 (200 ERA+ in 94 innings), we can probably expect an improvement there.  GM Kevin Towers has made some interesting bullpen acquisitions in the form of Ryu and Worrell, but neither of these guys have much of a MLB track record.  Petco Field is a pitcher’s park, so this bullpen might get the bounces they need in certain situations, but there is a serious lack of depth here.

Bullpen Grade: D+

Offensively, Padres fans were treated to the emergence of one of the better first basemen in baseball, as Adrian Gonzalez played all 162 games, swatted 36 home runs, and hit .279/.361/.510 while making the All-Star team.  Brian Giles had an interesting year, vetoing a trade to the Red Sox and being caught on tape belting his ex-girlfriend, all while hitting .306/.398/.456 at age 37.  Giles will be sticking around San Diego, as will just about their entire 2008 offense with the exception of Khalil Greene.

Projected Lineup:

RF – Brian Giles
CF – Jody Gerut
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF – Chase Headley
2B – Chris Burke
SS – David Eckstein
C – Nick Hundley

Bench:
Cliff Floyd – OF/1B
Louis Rodriguez – INF
Scott Hairston – OF
Henry Blanco – C
Engar Gonzalez

Unfortunately for San Diego, two of their three best performers from 2008 are solid bets to regress in 2009.  Jody Gerut hasn’t played a full season since 2004, and Brian Giles is 38 and has off-field problems.  Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff both have high-upside and could be a decent 3-4 combo, but the rest of the lineup is a little flimsy.  Those last 5 spots in the batting order could put some genuine hate into the hearts of the usually laid-back San Diego residents.  The one spot up in the air here is 2B, where Chris Burke will compete with a couple of other guys this spring, including prospect Matt Antonelli.

Offensive Grade: D+

Fielding Projection:

The data indicates that Jody Gerut played a fine CF last season, 3 years removed from Major League baseball.  I’ll defer to the numbers in this case as assume he’ll be at least serviceable next season.  Brian Giles has been solid since moving to RF.  However, those are the only real bright spots on the diamond.  Eckstein has the range you’d expect of a garden gnome at SS, and both Kouzmanoff and Gonzalez are…hitters, in the purest sense of the word.

Fielding Grade: D

This is definitely a team in full-fledged rebuilding mode.  In San Diego, there are lots of things you can do to keep your mind off of baseball.  Thank God for that.

Overall Score: 41.8 (D+)

Next up: the defending champs!

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By Jimmy, 2/9/2009 10:01 am

Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Pythagorean Record: 93-69
2008 Finish: 4th Place

Right away, there should be warning bells going off.  93 Pythagorean wins last year and a 4th place finish?  Such is life in the AL East, the toughest division in baseball.  As a Red Sox fan, I witnessed firsthand what Toronto was capable of, as they outscored Boston 91-60 in a frustrating 18 game season series.  Toronto’s main strength was their pitching, with a rotation anchored by superstar Roy Halladay, arguably the best pitcher in the game.  The Jays also had the luxury of over 200 quality (if unexpected) innings from A.J. Burnett, as well as surprising performances from the likes of Jesse Litsch and Sean Marcum.  Their 2009 rotation looks to be slightly different, at least to begin the year:

Projected Rotation:

1) Roy Halladay
2) Jesse Litsch
3) David Purcey
4) Casey Janssen
5) Scott Richmond

Starters Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum, instrumental to last year’s rotation, will both miss serious injury time, and A.J. Burnett has decided to sell his soul to Satan.  Former 1st Round pick David Purcey will be called upon to pick up some of the pieces.  He was excellent in AAA last year (121/34 K/BB in 117 innings) before showing promising peripherals in the Majors.   While the first 3 starters are somewhat safe, the final two spots in the rotation are sort of wide open.  Casey Janssen and Scott Richmond are my best guesses as to who will begin the season in the starting rotation, but the team also has a couple of blasts from the past (Matt Clement and Mike Maroth) heading to camp to compete for work.  Let’s just say the Janssen and Richmond present more upside than the other two fellows mentioned above, which really isn’t saying much at all.  As you can see, this is a very top-heavy rotation.  If Litsch isn’t able to replicate last year’s magic, or if Purcey isn’t able to translate his AAA sucess to MLB wins, Roy Halladay will be a lonely guy on that mound.  Halladay’s presence and McGowan’s expected June recovery make the rotation almost respectable.  However, it could easily get very ugly.

Rotation Grade: C+

One saving grace up north could be the Blue Jays bullpen, which should actually get stronger next season.  Jeremy Accardo is reportedly past the arm issues which cost him most of the 2008 season, and he will bolster a pen that was one of the best in baseball last year (lowest bullpen ERA in the AL).

Projected Bullpen:

B.J. Ryan (CL)
Jeremy Accardo
Scott Downs
Brandon League
Jason Frasor
Brian Tallet
Jesse Carlson

With the exception of the gimpy Accardo, all of these guys had performances varying between decent and superb last season.  The one thing keeping this bullpen from a solid “A” is the fact that not one of these relievers averaged more than a K per inning last season.

Bullpen Grade: A-

Offensively, Toronto had the potential to be dangerous last season, with names like Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay, Alex Rios, and Vernon Wells.  It just never really came together.  Wells, their best hitter, only appeared in 108 games.  Rios, Rolen, and Overbay all fell a little short of expectations.  The 2009 lineup looks to be similar to the 2008 one:

Projected Offense:

1) Alexis Rios – RF
2) Travis Snider – LF
3) Vernon Wells – CF
4) Lyle Overbay – 1B
5) Scott Rolen – 3B
6) Adam Lind – DH
7) Aaron Hill – 2B
8) Marco Scutaro – SS
9) Rod Barajas – C

Bench:
Joe Inglett – INF
Michael Barrett – C
John McDonald – INF
Jose Bautista – OF

A general note: I wouldn’t put too much stock in that batting order; it’s the order I would use if I were filling out a lineup card.  Cito will probably not hit Travis Snider 2nd, I can tell you that much.

Snider is actually an interesting case.  He’s among a handful of viable Rookie of the Year candidates, and has impressed at every level he has played.  He represents the lone improvement from the 2008 lineup, and a lot could hinge on the performance of the 21-year-old phenom.  If he struggles for a prolonged period of time, he’ll probably find himself in Syracuse, with Jose Bautista playing in his place.  Another area to watch is second base, where Aaron Hill will try to keep his job in the face of Joe Inglett’s impressive 2008 campaign.  Other than these side-stories, there just isn’t a ton to be excited about here, given the lack of power threats.  I like Vernon Wells as much as anyone, but he’s not the guy you build a lineup around.

Offense Grade: C+

Defensively, the Jays are very solid in several areas (3B, RF, 2B), but have gigantic question marks in LF (Travis Snider is known as a no-glove sort of player) and CF (Vernon Wells lost a step last season).  Marco Scutaro is surprisingly decent at SS, having the second best UZR/150 among AL shortstops with at least 400 innings last season.  If a healthy Vernon Wells can somehow manage to cover the ground he once did pre-2008, the Jays will be decent up the middle and at the corners…with the exception of LF.  Most teams punt defense in LF these days, so I won’t really hold it against them.

Fielding Grade: B

If J.P. Ricciardi is finally canned after what will probably be described as a disappointing 8-year tenure akin to the one we just witnessed on Pennsylvania Avenue, you can probably point to that rotation as his Waterloo.  Two of his top 4 starters go down with severe injuries, and he summons the likes of Matt Clement and Mike Maroth, neither of whom have appeared in a MLB game in the past year?  You’re telling me that Mr. Hockey (Tom Glavine) wouldn’t entertain the possibility of playing in Canada for a season?  And it’s not like the offense couldn’t be improved.  Adam Lind is penciled in at DH, but you can’t at least kick the tires on Adam Dunn?

In another division, the Jays might be viable.  They have some upside in that rotation and at certain positions, but outside of Roy Halladay, there just isn’t anyone who strikes fear into the hearts of opponents.  Snider could be that guy in 3 years, but at age 21, he’ll probably have growing pains.  Toronto’s three main competitors all improved this offseason.  Toronto did not.  They will be playing nearly 60 games against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays.  They’ll win some, but lose most.

Overall Score: 64.8 (B-)

Comments (5)

By Zach, 3/3/2008 7:57 am

The American League Central has a bit of everything: home-grown favorites, flashy acquisitions, wannabe pretenders, rebuilding cowards and perennial doormats. Can the status quo Indians hold off the influx of Tiger talent? Has Bill Smith already lost his job? Can Trey Hillman lead the young Royals to the brink of .500? Who’s crazier: Ozzie Guillen or Kenny Williams? These are the questions that surround the Central.

Cleveland Indians – 2007 Actual 96-66, Pythag 92-70

Eighty billion. According to my estimates, that’s how many times someone said “if it ain’t broke…” in Indians front office meetings over the last year. There’s truth in cliches; ninety-six wins and a 48-24 record in the division are no fluke. The Tribe missed the World Series by a game and return the same team, plus a few pieces, in 2008. Be afraid.

Lineup
CF Grady Sizemore
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
DH Travis Hafner
C Victor Martinez
1B Ryan Garko
LF Dave Delucci (L) / Jason Michaels (R)
SS Jhonny Peralta
RF Franklin Gutierrez
3B Casey Blake

The lineup is not without questions. Pronk had a down season, and they need him to rebound. A boost from old acquaintance Andy Marte – out of options and without a starting job – will take some of the pressure off. He’ll get an opportunity to win the gig from Casey Blake, who can also play first and a bit of outfield. Infielder Jamey Carroll and Kelly Shoppach round out a talented bench.

Bullpen
RHP Joe Borowski (Closer)
RHP Rafael Betancourt
RHP Masahide Kobayashi
RHP Jensen Lewis
LHP Rafael Perez
LHP Aaron Fultz
RHP Tom Mastny

Borowski will toe the line, but his safety net is 225 pound test. In 2007, Fat Joe got the sexy save numbers, but the Rafael “The Red Turtle” Betancourt contributed far more (5.38 vs. 1.36 WPA) in actual win probability. Kobayashi is here to slide into the setup role when Borowski flames out, between laying waste to local hot dog carts. Lewis (29.3 IP, 7 ER, 34 SO, 10 BB) and Perez (60 IP, 0.92 WHIP, 62 SO, 15 BB) round out the second best ‘pen (Angels) in the AL.

Rotation
LHP C.C. Sabathia
RHP Fausto Carmona
RHP Jake Westbrook
RHP Paul Byrd
LHP Cliff Lee
LHP Jeremy Sowers
LHP Adam Laffey

The attention is squarely on Sabathia’s broad shoulders after he wiped his ass with the Indians’ latest attempt at a contract extension. Just days after Johan swam laps in a mountain of Wilpon cash, Mark Shapiro scrooged C.C. with a 4 year, $68 million deal. This, for a pitcher coming off a Cy Young season at 26 with the free agency holy land a season away. More than low-balling, that offer might be pathetic enough for Carsten Charles to cut Marky Mark out of the bidding entirely. The timing is most egregious. Santana signed on Feb 2 and by the 4th Sabathia had the Tribe’s “offer.” Shapiro isn’t stupid, so he must not be willing to make a commitment in the $120 million range. If Sabathia stays healthy, he’ll be due at least Santana money in 2009. He’s said he won’t negotiate during the season. Let the speculation begin!

As good as the ace was in 2007, Fausto Carmona nearly matched him. Skinny on the strikeouts, he gets by with his power sinker and 64.3 GB%, leading the American League. Don’t get too excited, his IP jumped from 74 to 214, so consider him a major injury risk. If he manages to stay healthy and cut down on some of the walks he’ll make the Indians top two the best in the league, en route to the ALCS and a World Series appearance. I hate to say it, but the Indians are preseason favorites. If Fausto repeats and one of the Lee/Sowers/Laffey group proves competent, the Indians will be the best team in baseball.

Detroit Tigers – 2007 Actual 88-74, Pythag 90-72

Lineup
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
3B Miguel Cabrera
DH Gary Sheffield
RF Magglio Ordonez
1B Carlos Guillen
SS Edgar Renteria
LF Jacque Jones
C Ivan Rodriguez

Edit: I can’t believe I forgot Cabrera above.

Experts tout the Tigers lineup like it will cure all that ails their pitching staff. That will not be the case. Five years ago they may have scored 1000 runs; now, all but Granderson and Cabrera are on the wrong side of 32. Gary Sheffield’s OPS+ trend is going in the wrong direction (162, 141, 137, 107, 120) and he’s 39. Magglio Ordonez had a career year, but it looks like an outlier. Players don’t usually sustain career highs in their 30s.

The Tigers will field a group of professional hitters, but there will be natural decline.

Bullpen
RHP Todd Jones (Closer)
RHP Fernando Rodney
LHP Bobby Seay
RHP Jason Grilli
RHP Zach Miner
LHP Tim Byrdak
RHP Yorman Bazardo

Somebody hire Joel Zumaya a moving crew. A sixty pound box fell on his right shoulder while escaping California wildfires last fall, landing the Tigers bullpen in doubt. He hasn’t begun throwing, so a midseason return is optimistic. In a move reminiscent of a Theo Epstein “buckshot at the bullpen monster,” Matt Mantei was brought in on a minor league deal. Unfortunately, this one is about five seasons too late. Lefty Bobby Seay broke out last year, but is relatively ineffective against righthanded batters (.707/.545 OPS vs. RHB/LHB). Someone needs to take some of the pressure off of Rodney until Zumaya returns.

Rotation
RHP Justin Verlander
LHP Dontrelle Willis
RHP Jeremy Bonderman
LHP Nate Robertson
LHP Kenny Rogers

The biggest question is Willis’ transition to the American League. Did Vegas (wins over/under 93.5) notice that he was awful last year? Any decline from his 83 ERA+ and 1.58 WHIP will be cause for a demotion to rookie ball. Bonderman should be healthy, but Robertson has had exactly one above average season and Rogers is 44! This team just isn’t. that. good.

Chicago White Sox – 2007 Actual 72-90, Pythag 67-95

As bad as the White Sox were in 2007, Bill James and Pythagoras say they overachieved.

Lineup
CF Jerry Owens
SS Orlando Cabrera
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermain Dye
LF Nick Swisher
C A.J. Pierzynski
3B Josh Fields
2B Danny Richar

Settle down, Kenny. You’ve made too many acquisitions in the wrong places, and now you’ve got a mess on your hands. Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez didn’t leave his family behind to ride the pine, but he’s third on the depth chart at second base. Veteran and Guillen favorite Juan Uribe will battle with Richar. Example number 2,431 that Ozzie is an idiot: Juan Uribe stole one base last year, and was caught nine times.

“Nine times.”

The outfield is more crowded than Starbucks on free “full body” latte day. New acquisition Carlos Quentin is the fourth outfielder unless Owens bombs, forcing Swisher to center. Oh, and Joe Crede doesn’t have a spot or any trade value. Beautifully executed, Professor Williams.

Bullpen
RHP Bobby Jenks (Closer)
RHP Scott Linebrink
RHP Octavio Dotel
LHP Matt Thornton
RHP Mike MacDougal
LHP Boone Logan
RHP Nick Masset

You should recognize some of these names. Additions Linebrink and Dotel were had for a mere $30 million. A bit high, but maybe worth the premium if its going to put you over the top. Wait, does this put the White Sox over the top? Absolutely not. Terrible, terrible moves. Linebrink is on a four year deal, and is no longer the lights-out reliever he was in 2005 (210 ERA+). His strikeouts and his home runs allowed went in the wrong directions last year. At the end of that deal he’ll be dead weight.

Rotation
LHP Mark Buehrle
RHP Javier Vasquez
LHP John Danks
RHP Jose Contreras
RHP Gavin Floyd
RHP Lance Broadway

They subtracted the overrated but serviceable Jon Garland and added Gavin Floyd. Will the Danks/Contreras/Floyd/Broadway group contribute 90 quality starts? That would be 540 IP, or 135 each. Not a chance. Danks and Contreras will struggle to be average, and Broadway was figured out by minor leaguers in 2007. Buehrle and Vasquez come with their own issues, but the end of the rotation will doom the Pale Hose.

Kansas City Royals – 2007 Actual 69-93, Pythag 75-87

The Royals are going to surprise. Maybe not .500, but they’ll get to 75 wins, a six game improvement from 2007.

Rotation
RHP Gil Meche
RHP Brian Bannister
RHP Zack Greinke
RHP Brett Tomko
LHP Mike Maroth
LHP Jorge De La Rosa

The wild card is Greinke. Troubled colleagues Rick Ankiel and Oliver Perez have treated their complexes, and if the end of 2007 (7 GS, 34 IP, 31 SO, 1.85 ERA) is any indication, my namesake will continue the trend. While Meche turned Dayton Moore from goat to genius, Bannister is unlikely to repeat. His 4.20 K/9 will only fly with a ground ball rate better than his 42% in 2007. Luke Hochevar, the kid that was drafted three times and only settled for first overall, should be a factor by year end. This won’t be a tough rotation to break into.

Bullpen
RHP Joakim Soria (Closer)
RHP Yasuhiko Yabuta
LHP Ron Mahay
LHP Jimmy Gobble
LHP John Bale
RHP Joel Peralta
RHP Ryan Braun

This is Ryan Z. Braun. Ryan J. Braun plays for the Brewers. I never thought I’d have to deal with another Bobby Jones situation, especially with a less generic name. Unfortunately, the Royals don’t play the Brewers in the regular season, but you can check out the March 8th tuneup for some hot Braun-on-Braun action.

Soria had a nice rookie campaign (9.78 K/9, 0.942 WHIP, 17 S). He mixes in a slow curve (average speed 73 mph) and rare change (83mph) off his average fastball (92 mph). With three solid pitches I wonder why he has never been given an opportunity as a starter. He threw a perfect game in the Mexican Winter League just days after being taken in the Rule 5 draft. Another Santana-type Rule 5 triumph? Probably not, but another example of the importance of that draft.

35 year-old Yabuta will try to replace David Riske, who, in 2007, gave up too many hits and walks (1.26 WHIP) to maintain a 2.45 ERA. Yabuta has been consistently good the last four years in Japan, but projecting him is voodoo soothsaying at best.

Lineup
CF David DeJesus
LF Mark Teahen
1B Billy Butler
RF Jose Guillen
3B Alex Gordon
DH Ross Gload
C John Buck
2B Mark Grudzielanek
SS Tony Pena, Jr.

If the kids make some strides, this will be a decent run scoring team. I think they’ll crush David Pinto’s 4.82 estimate. John Buck, despite decent power (.429 SLG), has never shown patience (.308 OBP) or an ability to make contact (.222 BA). He’s not a starter in big-market baseball. 2008 will be the first step toward .500 in KC.

Minnesota Twins – 2007 Actual 79-83, Pythag 79-83

The Mississippi will flow with tears. Torii Hunter has signed with LAnaheim. Johan Santana has made his journey into the sunset, fetching a group of solid, not spectacular, prospects. Many have insisted this wasn’t enough, Smith should have held his cards or folded early. In reality, he had no choice. The player held too much power with his no-trade clause and ability to block an in-season deal. The real blame should fall on Terry Ryan, who sacrificed future flexibility to sign Johan to a 4/40M deal before 2005. Considering all factors, Smith did pretty well. He held out as long as he could, but recognized the price was falling and pulled the trigger. The alternative, Johan heading into the season as a Twin, would be an enormous failure.

Rotation
LHP Francisco Liriano
RHP Scott Baker
RHP Boof Bonser
RHP Livan Hernandez
RHP Kevin Slowey

The dramatic improvement in ligament-replacement surgery has changed the game since Dr. Frank Jobe pioneered the procedure in 1974. Now, pitchers with elbow injuries make full recoveries 93% of the time. The Twins insist Liriano is fully recovered, but I’ll file that under “I’ll believe it when I see it.” Even with The Prodigy at full strength, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser and Kevin Slowey will be responsible for three-fifths of the starts. They weren’t good last year and the status quo won’t cut it. An improvement may come from Bonser, who has good stuff and is reportedly in the best shape of his career. The jury is out on how a bit of extra heft effects pitchers. Certainly good conditioning is positive, but durability may be sacrificed. He will be a good case study.

Bullpen
RHP Joe Nathan (closer)
RHP Pat Neshek
RHP Matt Guerrier
RHP Jesse Crain
LHP Dennys Reyes
RHP Juan Rincon

The bidding on Nathan will begin in 5…4…3…. He’s a premier closer and a number of teams with playoff hopes are shaky at the end of the pen. I can see Arizona, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and the Mets involved. After a dominant first half, Neshek struggled beyond July 24th. In 21 IP, he gave up 22 hits and walked 11 for a 6.23 ERA. Caveat emptor. Jessie Crain is recovering from a torn labrum and is 80% as of Feb 21, according to Rotoworld. Guerrier may be closing by June.

Lineup
CF Carlos Gomez
C Joe Mauer
LF Delmon Young
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel
2B Brendan Harris
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

The revamped Twins lineup welcomes Gomez, Young, Harris, Lamb and Everett. 55% turnover will make waves in what has been one of the most consistent rosters in baseball over the last decade. It will take me two weeks to get used to Torii in an Angels uni. Young is poised to breakout; I’m taking the over on all his projections. ZiPS has him at 4.9 RC/27. Gomez is overrated, his speed will be valuable, but he hasn’t shown the patience to lead off. I take him in the AL Central ROY below for lack of a better choice.

The fallout from Johan will hurt for years. The bottom line is, an agent wielding a no-trade clause is a death sentence for a front office. Even moreso when based on postseason voting, where a team is forced to either root against its own player or swallow the bitter pill of an NTC. In this case, the Twins could have sent Johan to Seattle for Adam Jones, but he would have blocked the deal faster than Dusty Baker ruins pitchers. It would be interesting to analyze the cost in dollars to the Twins of Johan’s NTC, but that’s a task for another day.

______________________________

Predictions:
Indians 100-62
Tigers 85-77
Royals 75-87
White Sox 74-88
Twins 68-94

That’s right, the Royals will finish ahead of the White Sox. You read it here. Their young lineup will catalyze around Alex Gordon, while Ozzie Guillen will continue to raise the bar for crazy. The Indians will be nothing short of awesome, and the Tigers will disappoint.

AL Central Top Hitter: Travis Hafner
AL Central Top Pitcher: Carsten Charles Sabathia
AL Central Rookie of the Year: Carlos Gomez
Angel Berroa Award: John Buck

Comments (7)

By Zach, 2/11/2008 11:39 am

Cancel the season. The Mets have added the best pitcher in baseball. They’ve transformed their 2007 contenders to Vegas favorites. The rest of the division has faded away or moved laterally. But, wait! Not so fast, obnoxious-NYC-daily-rag-columnist! This race is not over.

Every team would love to add Johan Santana. Will it be enough to put the aging Mets over the top? With another season on the odometer of Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner and Pedro Martinez, their backups: Jeff Conine, Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa; will play a large role. A single injury to one of their ancient porcelin princesses will crack the shaky ice on which Omar Minaya has thrown his chips. Pretty much any doomsday-cliche works here, I guess it’s just salt in the wound at this point. Where the Phillies and Braves are lacking in top flight rotation talent, they make up for in balance and depth. Oh, and the Nationals and Marlins play the punching bags.

New York Mets

2007: Actual 88-74, Pythag 87-75
2008 Projected: 94-68

I really, really wanted to pick someone else to win the East. I wrote several versions of this column, one with a very weak case for the Phillies offense carrying them and another with the Braves possessing just enough depth to win. I think it will be heartbreak-close, but the Mets will pull it out. That is, if they don’t lose 11 of their last 16 and fold like a scared puppy that just peed on the rug, again.

Lineup:
SS Jose Reyes (S)
2B Luis Castillo (S)
3B David Wright (R)
CF Carlos Beltran (S)
1B Carlos Delgado (L)
LF Moises Alou (R)
RF Ryan Church (L)
C Brian Schneider (L)

I guess a 150 OPS+ and 34/5 SB/CS are only good enough for fourth in the MVP voting. Amazingly, David Wright’s 2007 season was accepted with quiet aplomb. The New York media effect couldn’t put him over the top, even though he had sexier numbers than Jimmy Rollins at an important defensive position. He can’t be blamed for “the meltdown;” his best two months were August and September.

Perception of the other member of the Mets’ left side is skewed in the opposite direction. Jose Reyes collects accolades for his disruption on the basepaths, but his middling OBP and lack of power prevent his ascension into legitimate All-Stardom. Yes, he’s made two mid-summer classics, but it’s absurd that he stole some MVP votes from Wright in 2007. 78 is a lot of stolen bases, but Wright’s success rate was far better. I’d apologize for this “David Wright got robbed” tirade if it wasn’t true. Sorry, Mets fans, but you’ve got the third best shortstop in this division and Yunel Escobar has a fighting chance to move you down another notch. In fact, Escobar (.451) outslugged Reyes (.421) in 2007. Congrats, Jose, Cristian Guzman will never touch you.

Don’t expect as much from the rest of the infield. Luis Castillo and Carlos Delgado have seen better days. Brian Schneider and Church came at the cost of Lastings Milledge, but expectations are for Schneider to work on receiving. Alou should be league average in left and Beltran will earn every bit of his $13.5m.

CL Billy Wagner
RHRP Aaron Heilman
LHRP Pedro Feliciano
RHRP Matt Wise
LHRP Scott Schoenweis
RHRP Duaner Sanchez

When the inevitable catastrophic elbow explosion happens to Billy Wagner, the pen should be able to weather the storm. Heilman would slide into the closer’s role, which he and his 1.07 WHIP are qualified for, and solid lefty Pedro Feliciano would set-up. After that it’s righty Matt Wise (1.45 WHIP) and nearly cooked Scott Schoenweis. The long-anticipated return of Duaner Sanchez from a freak shoulder injury would do wonders to a thin but talented pen.

LHP Johan Santana
RHP Pedro Martinez
RHP John Maine
LHP Oliver Perez
RHP Orlando Hernandez
RHP Jorge Sosa

Pedro and El Duque should be treated as one starter, because they’re all but guaranteed to miss significant time. That means pressure on Maine and Perez to repeat their success in 2007. Jorge Sosa had one magical season in Atlanta, but other than that he has never had a league average ERA. Minaya has been rumored to be after Kyle Lohse. He’s no stud, but another option if Sosa struggles in place of Pedro or the Duke. After an amazing first half, John Maine’s August (6.32 ERA) and September (5.93) are worrisome.

This could be a great rotation, but the question marks are larger than Atlanta’s, Plan B is shaky, and there is no Plan C: Pelfrey isn’t ready (1.70 WHIP, 1.15 K/BB). There are two reasons the Mets will win this divison:

1. Santana will tear through the NL like a Curt Schilling at an Old Country Buffet
2. 2007 Oliver Perez (120 ERA+, 8.85 K/9) started the journey back to the unhittable 2004 version (145 ERA+, 10.97 K/9), if he splits the difference, watch out for the Mets.

Atlanta Braves

(2007: Actual 84-78, Pythag 89-73)
2008 Projected: 93-69, 1 GB

Some argue that juggernaut offenses are the key to regular season success. I say starting rotation depth cures the 162 game grind. Injuries, especially among pitchers, happen. Every time an ancient journeyman starter takes the hill because there’s noone else to go that day, I cringe and immediately blame the general manager for a failure to anticipate the unexpected. Uh, yeah, I guess that makes sense. The 2008 Braves will not have a high scoring offense, but they will hit and they have more rotation depth than anyone.

RHP John Smoltz
RHP Tim Hudson
LHP Tom Glavine
LHP Chuck James
RHP Jair Jurrjens
RHP Buddy Carlyle
LHP Mike Hampton
LHP Jo-Jo Reyes
RHP Anthony Lerew

That, dear reader, is a pile of arms. There are throbbing uncertainties in Glavine, Hampton, and the kids; but the volume of starters available to the Braves is astounding. Jurrjens wasn’t spectacular in seven starts for the Tigers and may require some time in AAA. Jo-Jo Reyes averaged about a strikeout per inning in the minors, so he’ll get another shot after struggling (69 ERA+, 0.9 K/BB, 50.2 IP) in 2007. It may take a few months, but they’ll figure out the best five and come on strong in the second half.

CL Raphael Soriano
LHRP Mike Gonzalez
RHRP Peter Moylan
RHRP Manny Acosta
LHRP Will Ohman
LHRP Royce Ring

The bullpen doesn’t have so much depth, but Soriano is solid at the end. Hear that, Bavasi?! If you don’t remember, Bill Bavasi traded Soriano for Horacio Ramirez (7.16 ERA) in the 2006 off-season. Mike Gonzalez may or may not be back from 2007 elbow-ligament-replacement surgery. And since I’m sick of giving Tommy John getting all that free press, that’s how I will refer to that procedure. Peter Moylan’s return from the scrap heap is worth mentioning, ambiguous Wikipedia wording aside:

1997, After failing to make the Major Leagues, Moylan left the Major League Baseball system. He then took a job as a pharmaceutical salesman in Australia. At a certain point Moylan improved his pitching and began his comeback.

That certain point was the World Baseball Classic in 2006. Sounds fishy to me. He’s a rare commodity: a sidearmer with some heat. Serious regression should be expected; he caught a lot of people by surprise in 2007. The lefties are led by Will Ohman with Royce Ring and newly aquired Jeff Ridgway. None of those are fantastic options so Gonzalez’s recovery is important.

Lineup:
2B Kelly Johnson (L)
SS Yunel Escobar (R)
1B Mark Teixeira (S)
3B Chipper Jones (S)
C Brian McCann (L)
RF Jeff Franceour (R)
CF Mark Kotsay (L)
LF Matt Diaz (R)

They’ve bid adieu to Andruw Jones and replaced him with Mark Kotsay. In name recognition and merchandise sales that’s a huge downgrade, but in actual offensive production Jones is only about 10% better, using career average OPS+. Defensively, Kotsay gets good jumps and takes good routes which make up for his average speed. The future in the outfield isn’t a big concern for new GM Frank Wren, because Jordan Schaefer (.294/.354/.477 in 106 G) had a breakout season in high-A. He’ll start at AA and may debut opening day 2009. Watch for 2007 draftee Jason Heyward as well. Edgar Renteria was shipped to Detroit for Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez, a nice package facilitated by continued Red Sox subsidization of Edgar’s contract. At least Theo the Gunslinger knew when to fold ‘em. Yunel Escobar (.326/.385/.451 in 319 major league at bats) was ready, and the job is his to lose.

The above illustrates Chipper Jones’ career, in games played and OPS+. It shows that he was an ironman for nine years, but the wear and tear caught up to him in 2003 and 2004. With a reduced workload he has regained his former dominance. He’s thirty-six, so a decline would be natural, but if he’s limited to 120 games he can play another three years. A contract year boost from Chipper or Mark Teixiera and a return to 2006 form from Brian McCann and this offense will be just fine to win in the National League.

Philadelphia Phillies

(2007: Actual 89-73, Pythag 87-75)
2008 Projected: 88-74, 6 GB

Dude, Pedro Feliz is not the answer. The ghost of Mike Schmidt has haunted the hot corner in Philly for a decade, turning likes of David Bell, Abraham Nunez and Wes Helms into quivering piles of ineptitude. Feliz’s range was best in the NL according to zone rating, but his historic ability to make outs is well documented. His .290 (!) career OBP is nothing short of terrifying.

SS Jimmy Rollins (S)
CF Shane Victorino (S)
2B Chase Utley (L)
1B Ryan Howard (L)
LF Pat Burrell (R)
RF Jayson Werth (R)/Geoff Jenkins (L)
3B Pedro Feliz (R)
C Carlos Ruiz (R)

The Phils return the second best offense in baseball (5.51 RPG) missing Aaron Rowand (123 OPS+) in center. The platoon combination of Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins has awesome potential. Hat tip to former Dewey’s House writer Patrick Sullivan at Baseball Analysts. The offense is not the problem.

LHP Cole Hamels
RHP Brett Myers
RHP Kyle Kendrick
LHP Jamie Moyer
RHP Adam Eaton

Solid at the top, but fades quickly. While we were pointing and lauging at old man Charlie Manuel, he actually found a strength in Brett Myers at the end of the pen. Myers is being reluctantly dragged by the hair back into the rotation following the addition of Brad Lidge. There are a few unwritten chapters in this epic drama. Hamels will contend for the Cy Young, but the injury concerns around his 6′3″ 175 pound frame will persist for the rest of his career. In eleven of his twenty-eight starts in 2007, he threw between 110 and 121 pitches. Tread lightly.

Kyle Kendrick had an impressive rookie campaign marred by a disappointing loss in the NLDS to Colorado. Down 0-1 at home, the Phils needed KK to step up and he layed an egg (3.2 IP, 5 ER). Coming out strong will endear him to Manuel and cement his spot in the rotation. Don’t scoff at Jamie Moyer. He’ll take the ball for another 30+ starts at league average production. If the Phils could say the same about Adam Eaton, they’d be in decent shape. Unfortunately, an infusion of young talent isn’t close. Carlos Carrasco had a poor season at AA Reading after a solid first half in the FSL. Kyle Drabek has great stuff, but an elbow injury requiring ligament replacement surgery has halted his development until 2009. The upper minors is a barren wasteland outside of fringe LHP prospect Josh Outman.

CL Brad Lidge
RHRP Tom Gordon
LHRP J.C. Romero
RHRP Ryan Madson
RHRP Scott Mathieson
RHRP Clay Condrey

The Lidge rollercoaster has arrived. Astros’ GM Ed Wade lobbed a meatball to his former team, dealing the talented but inconsistent pitcher for Michael Bourn and Geoff Geary. Lidge’s inconsistency could soon force Myers back to the pen. After losing his closer’s job immediately in 2007, Lidge regained his form and role by midseason with a few minor hiccups along the way. He still strikes batters out at an high rate (11.82 K/9 in 2007) but allows baserunners (1.25 WHIP) and doesn’t “bear down” with runners on (.770 OPS with runners on versus .686 with bases empty).

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies made a run at the division. They should be no worse than third, considering the dreck that’s next. This is turning into a novel, so bear with me.

Florida Marlins

(2007: Actual 71-91, Pythag 72-90)
2008 Projected: 70-92, many GB

Rebuilding? To me, rebuilding happens after some success. The Marlins have bucked the trend and launched into full rebuilding-mode after finishing fifty games out of first. Low standards? Check. I understand that this was the only option, but Dontrelle Willis had far more value two years ago, and it was clear at that point that this wasn’t a playoff team. He should have been dealt long ago for much more, and the Marlins could be two years into this process. It will be a long time before there’s joy in South Florida; at least the return will have an immediate impact. Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and Mike Rabelo will be contributors in 2008, whether they’re ready or not.

Rotation:
LHP Scott Olson
RHP Sergio Mitre
LHP Andrew Miller
RHP Ricky Nolasco
RHP Rick VandenHurk
LHP Mark Hendrickson

Ages: 24, 27, 23, 25, 23 and old man river Hendrickson at 34. There will be growing pains, but there will be progress. Josh Johnson is out until 2009 with ligament replacement surgery, and Anibal Sanchez has yet to throw off a mound after 2007 shoulder surgery. His ETA is mid-season at best. Olson was wildly inconsistent in 2007. The big lefty Miller is polished for his tender age, and would contend for ROY if he were eligible. If you’re wondering, the limits to rookie eligibility are 130 at-bats, 50 IP, or 45 days on a ML roster. Miller threw 64 innings in 2007.

Lineup:
CF Cameron Maybin (R)
RF Jeremy Hermida (L)
SS Hanley Ramirez (R)
1B Mike Jacobs (L)
2B Dan Uggla (R)
LF Josh Willingham (R)
3B Dallas McPherson (R)
C Mike Rabelo (S)

Only if I were running things. The irrational crush on stolen bases will cost the Marlin untold runs because manager Fredi Gonzalez will bat Hanley Ramirez first, twisting a stick in the eye of baseball nerds everywhere. His value isn’t in getting on base, but producing runs in the middle of the lineup. Every aspect of his offensive game improved in 2007.

This isn’t meant to be a projection. It is meant to illustrate how much Ramirez improved from 06 to 07. The 2008 column shows his production if the trend continued into 2008. It would be the best three-year improvement in the history of the game (I have no data to back that up), and unlikely, but if he continues at a rate half of which he showed he’ll still be among the top five players in baseball. He’s a butcher in the field, comfirmed by John Dewan’s zone rating (.786, last in NL). You may be interested to know that he’s superior to one shortstop measured by ZR, Captain Derek Jeter. Hanley’s OBP has been driven by hits, but he’s hit enough. The area of his offensive game that can be improved the most is his patience at the plate.

Maybin struggled (.143 BA) in a short stint in the bigs last year, but he’s a well-developed 20-year-old with power and speed. He’s surrounded by Hermida and Willingham in the outfield, both of whom where productive in 07. Willingham is ancient at 29 and his value has declined since moving from behind the plate. Rabelo, a native Floridian, has his first starting gig. He caught Miller a few times last season with Detroit.

CL Kevin Gregg
RHRP Justin Miller
RHRP Matt Lindstrom
LHRP Taylor Tankersley
RHRP Lee Gardner
RHRP Daniel Barone

The bullpen will miss Henry Owens, out for the first half after shoulder surgery. Kevin Gregg is the highest paid player on this team at $2.5 million. Wait, Craig Hansen has made more money than the highest paid Marlin? Actually, the bullpen isn’t as weak as you’d expect from a team with a payroll in the $15 million range. Miller had his best season last year (1.24 WHIP, 74 Ks, 61 IP) and the kids have some talent.

There’s a lot of potential in the starting eight, but the rotation lacks the experience and depth to contend. It won’t be pretty.

Washington Nationals

(2007: Actual 73-89, Pythag 71-91)
2008 Projected: 66-96, a bazillion GB

About a year ago, I wrote the Gnats team preview for Dewey’s House. I predicted 102 losses. They beat my prediction by 13 wins. Their bullpen was stronger than expected (3.81 ERA) and a couple of players (Shawn Hill, DaMeatHook) had good seasons. They open Nationals Park in 2008, which looks pretty average. Gee, was “Baseball Stadium” taken? The marketing guru behind “Nationals Park” needs to start smoking pot or something.

Rotation:
RHP John Patterson
RHP Shawn Hill
RHP Jason Bergmann
LHP Matt Chico
RHP Tim Redding

It appears that Patterson is fully recovered from elbow problems that have sidelined him since 2005. He threw 100 pitches February 9th with no pain. He was one of the top pitchers in the game in his last full season, and will earn less than $1 million this year. He’s got 4+ years of service, so the motivation of impending free agency should drive him. I think he’ll return to form. Hill had elbow and shoulder problems last year, as well as surgery in October to repair a torn labrum. That sentence has more red flags than a communist rally. Bergmann/Chico/Redding will eat some innings. The Nats success will be inversely proportional to number of starts Mike Bacsik (Back-zit?) gets.

Their minor league system is vastly improved under Jim Bowden. Baseball America sings his praises by launching them from 30th to 9th in their organizational rankings. 22 year old lefty Ross Detwiler could make an impact as soon as the second half of 2008, but their decision to bring him up for one appearance in 2007 is curious. First basemen Chris Marrero hit 14 homers in 54 games at Class A.

Lineup:
SS Cristian Guzman (S)
CF Lastings Milledge (R)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)
1B Dmitri Young (S)
RF Austin Kearns (R)
LF Wily Mo Pena (R)
2B Ronnie Belliard (R)
C Johnny Estrada (S)

This is an odd lineup. Beyond the lack of a true left handed hitter; vets like Nick Johnson, Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca don’t have starting jobs. PLoD (thanks, Capitol Improvement) was signed as a free agent before his implication in the Mitchell report and knee injury. Bowden must not expect much from LoDuca, because he subsequently nabbed Johnny Estrada and relegated Jesus Flores to Columbus. This post on a BBTF message board from a Brewers fan purporting to be in the know, on Estrada, “he is beyond toxic. He drinks nuclear waste for breakfast and pisses hate. That he is bi-lingual only means he can alienate twice as many people twice as fast.” Maybe he can room with Elijah Dukes?

Lopez was shopped all off-season for pitching, to no avail. He’ll be a $4 million backup. Nick Johnson is on his way back from a broken leg, but will have to win the job from Young. Zimmerman broke his hamate late in 2007, a bone injury notorious for lingering and taking away power.

CL Chad Cordero
RHRP Jon Rauch
RHRP Luis Ayala
RHRP Ryan Wagner
RHRP Jesus Colome
RHRP Saul Rivera

Again, no good left handed option. Detwiler could be the answer, but developing a 22 year old in a major league bullpen is stupid. It might work in brief ‘Joba Chamberlain‘ situations, but not over an entire season. Rauch and Cordero are good against lefties so it might work with smoke and mirrors.

The biggest problem is the injury concern at the top of the rotation. The Nats could run through 15-20 starters again before they figure anything out. They’ll be closer to my failed 102 loss prediction than their actual 89.

In Summary:
Mets 94-68
Braves 93-69
Phillies 88-74
Marlins 70-92
Gnats 66-96

Comments (2)

By Jeff, 4/13/2007 9:02 am

With the game rained out last night, there is pretty much nothing Sox related to talk about. So I’ll talk about something that seems to have flown under the national radar…Don Imus!

Actually, due to a stirring combination of school work, and Guitar Hero II, I had a late night last night and have nothing much to say, so I’ll test out our new table feature by giving some hitting stats for the Angels and Red Sox.

Stat Guide:
g – Games
pa – Plate Appearences
ba – Batting average
ob% – On base percentage
slug – Slugging percentage
rc/27 – Runs created per 27 outs
risp – Runs added to offense with hits while runners are in scoring position. This is based on expectation.
mob – Runs added to offence with home runs while men are on base. The is based on expectation.
con – contact rate
bb% – percentage of plate appearences that end with an unintentional walk
k% – percentage of plate appearences that end with strikeout
iso d – Isolated discipline (OB%-BA)
iso s – Isolated slugging (Slug-BA)
DP Rate – Approximate double plays per oppertunity

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 3/28/2007 1:34 pm

2006 Record: 80-82, 3^rd place, AL West

Projected Lineup:
1. CF Kenny Lofton
2. LF Frank Catalanotto
3. SS Michael Young
4. 1B Mark Teixeira
5. DH Sammy Sosa
6. 3B Hank Blalock
7. RF Nelson Cruz
8. C Gerald Laird
9. 2B Ian Kinsler

Projected Rotation:
Kevin Millwood
Vicente Padilla
Brandon McCarthy
Jamey Wright
Robinson Tejeda

Projected Closer:
Eric Gagne

Outlook:
This Texas Rangers franchise has been in a holding pattern for what seems like eons, plagued with the misfortune of playing in an uber-competitive 4 team division and consistently coming up short in September.  However, things have been trending upward for Ron Washington’s crew, as last year’s squad had a Pythagorean record of 86-76.  In addition to this, division rival Oakland might be nearing the end of their magic-carpet ride, and Seattle hasn’t done much to climb out of the cellar this offseason.  By default, Texas could be looking to pick up a few games in their division in 2007. 

The usual Achilles’ Heel down in Arlington is a lackluster starting rotation.  Now that the squad is no longer under the shadow of Chan-Ho Park and his abomination of a contract, GM Jon Daniels has focused on bringing quality, durable arms to the Lone Star State.  The most interesting guy in the rotation this year is Brandon McCarthy, acquired from Chicago in the John Danks trade.  What Texas did was trade a promising “almost-ready” pitcher for a promising “ready right now” pitcher, in the hopes of opening a window for contention.   After the 23-year-old was used primarily as a reliever in 2006, he will begin the season in the rotation.  Anchoring the rotation will be Kevin Millwood, who won 16 games and posted a 3:1 K:BB ratio in his Texas debut season.  It’s hard to believe that the big right-hander is only 32, because he’s been around for quite some time, providing conistent innings for the past decade.  Vicente Padilla is another solid workhorse, whose performance was nearly identical to Millwood’s in 2006. 

Along with McCarthy, another wildcard in the rotation is 25-year-old Robinson Tejeda.  The Dominican native does have potential, but will need to improve his control (career 4.7 BB per 9 innings) to stay out of trouble in the offense-happy Texas ballpark.  Veteran right-hander Jamey Wright is the favorite to begin the season as the 5^th starter.  Wright does have a knack for preventing the long-ball, which will come in handy in his new surroundings.  However, like Tejeda, he will need to keep the walks under control to avoid dangerous situations.

While the rotation looks to be somewhat improved in the wake of the John Koronka Era, Texas will once again boast a strong bullpen.  Of course, the highlight of the relief corps is a seemingly healthy Eric Gagne, who could prove to be a steal for Jon Daniels as the closer in 2007. 

Texas does have a bevy of other hard-throwing relievers who should be ready to step in if/when Gagne goes on one of his DL vacations.  Gagne will be treated with kid gloves, and a few save opportunities will likely go to last year’s closer, Akinori Otsuka, who dazzled the Dallas area with 32 saves and a 2.11 ERA in 2006.  RHP Frank Francisco (who is best known as the guy who smashed a female White Sox fan with a chair a few years ago) has been plagued by elbow problems since his Mick Foley impersonation, only throwing 7 innings since 2004, but does still have powerful stuff and could prove to be a solid set-up man once again.  Joaquin Benoit had impressive strikeout numbers in 2006 (9.6 per 9 innings), and will be counted on when the rotation can’t make it into the later innings.  Left-hander C.J. Wilson was murder on lefty hitters last season (.155 OBA), and former Red Sox Ron Mahay is still effective against hitters from both sides of the plate.  RHP Kameron Loe appears to be the loser of the spring 5^th starter battle, and will likely be used as a long/mop-up man.

The main strength of the Rangers (as always) will be their offense.  One of the biggest surprises of the spring has been the performance of a guy who was seemingly cast into baseball purgatory, Sammy Sosa.  Sosa has belted to the tune of .409/.426/.773 in spring training, and while Cactus League performances should always be taken with a heaping mound of salt, the legendary slugger certainly seems determined to go out with a bang, perhaps eradicating some of the negativity surrounding his rumored steroid use.

Along with Sosa, the Rangers infield will provide 4 decent bats for the middle of the order.  First baseman Mark Teixeira looks to improve from his “off” year in 2006, when he hit .282/.371/.514 while playing excellent defense. Teixeira actually had a 2^nd half surge last season (.998 post All-Star break OPS), and is a solid bet to be one of the most productive hitters in the AL in 2007.  At third base, Hank Blalock is also looking to improve in 2007, after playing hurt most of last season.  At age 29, All-Star shortstop Michael Young improved the one hole in his game last season: defense.  Young went from -15 FRAA in 2005 to +23 FRAA in 2006, while playing in all 162 games and smacking over 200 hits for the 4^th straight season.  Young second baseman Ian Kinsler is a potential 20 HR/20 SB guy, and with Young, should combine to form one of the best offensive middle-infields in the game.  Utilitymen Jerry Hairston Jr. and Matt Kata will serve as the primary infield backups. 

While the infield is stocked with powerful bats, the outfield picture isn’t nearly as bright, after the departure of the $100 Million Dollar Man, Carlos Lee.  Ancient speedster Kenny Lofton, whose primary skills are declining faster than the stock market, should see most of the starts in CF, with Brad Wilkerson backing him up (as well as playing the occasional 1B to spell Teixeira).  26-year-old Nelson Cruz is having a good spring, and will start in RF this season.  He does have potential, hitting .302/.378/.528 with 17 SBs in AAA Nashville, and could be a surprise producer in this lineup.  Red Sox killer Frankie Catalanotto will occupy left field, and should provide a solid top-of-the-order bat (career .362 on-base percentage).  The departure of Rod Barajas leaves longtime Texas backup Gerald Laird the starting catcher.  Laird hit very well in a reserve role in 2006, and can also provide a solid mitt behind the plate.  He’ll be backed-up by one of Chris Stewart and Miguel Ojeda this season (yet to be determined, as of this writing).

While the Texas pitching staff has improved and the infield is chock-full of young, promising stars, the team still has glaring weaknesses.  Unless Nelson Cruz breaks out, that outfield could be one of the worst in the league.  The catching corps is unproven, and the strong bullpen does have some serious injury risks.  This team will once again be looking at limbo, unless there are some miraculous comeback performances from DH and the bullpen.  Looking at the way certain guys are looking this spring, it certainly could happen.  This crystal ball shows a 2^nd place finish, and a pat on the back for new manager Ron Washington.

Prediction: 85-77.

Comments (5)

By Zach, 3/27/2007 6:18 am

2006: 67-95, Last in NL East

Lineup
2B Felipe Lopez (S)
SS Christian Guzman (S)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)
RF Austin Kearns (R)
1B Dmitri Young (S)
C Brian Schneider (L)
LF Ryan Church (L)
CF Alex Escobar (R)

Rotation
RHP John Patterson
RHP Jerome Williams
RHP Shawn Hill
LHP Matt Chico
RHP Jason Simontacchi

Closer
Chad Cordero

What a f*cking mess. The temptation to put “a bunch of bums” after John Patterson in the rotation was nearly too great to resist, and it would do as much to describe the drivel assembled here as their given names. The lineup is mildly terrible at best, Zimmerman is a good player but on any other team he’d be part of the supporting cast. Jim Bowden is like the studio exec that saw Mark Wahlberg in The Departed and decided that he could reprise his role as leader of the the funky bunch in “Shooter.” Well, he can’t carry a movie any better than Kearns and Zim will carry this offense.

If an “ace” is defined as the most talented pitcher on a team, Patterson qualifies. However, many believe that an ace must measure up to the elite of rotations across the league, if you’re of that school of thought Patterson is probably closer to Gil Meche than Brandon Webb. The strategy for filling out the rotation went something like this:

1. Collect inexperienced kids
2. Find a few journeymen with their tank just above empty
3. Audition everyone in spring training before hitters have their timing
4. Make a decision based on bad information
5. See who sticks in the bigs
6. Repeat

So the winners are Hill, Chico, and Williams. Simontacchi might miss some time with a strained groin, opening up the last spot for the struggling Tim Redding (16 H, 11 ER, 8.2 IP). Williams has the most experience, he started 17 games in 2005 with some success. While talented, he’s had as much trouble staying healthy as I have paying my Upper East Side rent. Hill has 9 career starts and Chico has never thrown a pitch in the bigs, so this rotation could be completely different two weeks into the season. They should shatter the record of 37 pitchers used by the 2002 Padres. I’ll put a sawbuck on the over, you game?

It looks like Nick Johnson might not play this season, creating a giant hole at first base. Don’t expect much from the 2007 version of Dmitri Young. How the mighty have fallen. It seems like just yesterday Dmitri was whimsically whacking some poor college kid in a bratwurst suit with a bat during the 5K sausage race in Milwaukee, today the former All-Star (albeit he was a Ken Harvey-esque selection) has dried out since his domestic violence charge last year. Apparently Dmitri had a little too much to drink and took out his frustration on his girlfriend. Its a good thing there are franchises like this to sponsor Dmitri Young during his rehabilitation, the Nats are like baseball’s halfway house. With all the uncertainty at first, someone like Larry Broadway might see significant time. He sounds like a cool guy and I bet he looks really boss in a leather jacket, but he’s never cashed in on his potential as a player. He’s in the right place at the right time, this team doesn’t care about his 116/45 K/BB ratio in AAA. For even more first base “depth,” Travis Lee has reappeared in Washington. When your veteran mentor couldn’t hang on the Devil Rays, you might start thinking about a new strategy for bench players. Hey, maybe Manny Acta can squeeze in some at bats for Robert Fick or Tony Batista! It isn’t called depth when none of the options are any good.

Roster flexibility is a product of foresight and usually makes a GM’s job easier. If there’s a little breathing room for a useful Rule 5 pickup thats always a nice boost to a farm system. However, there should never be enough room for TWO Rule 5 picks Jesus Flores will backup at catcher and Levale Speigner is in the mix for the starting rotation. Not even perennial Cy Young candidate Johan Santana was a starter as a Rule 5er. Jim Bowden is a pioneer in the poor roster management department. Has any team ever carried two 5ers for the duration?

Felipe Lopez had a nice season in 2006, and there’s little pressure on him this year. He’s part of the rare breed of hitters that have the same OBP(.362) as slugging (.365), also known as the Tony Womack All-Stars. Lopez is a serviceable leadoff guy and will steal bases every chance he gets with Cristian Guzman hitting behind him. Also an atypical hitter, Guzman has struck out 567 times in his career, while only drawing 191 walks and hitting 43 home runs. Basically, he doesn’t do anything right at the plate or in the field. He cost the Nats 13 runs on defense in 2005, his last full season, and makes $4.6m. He’s the clubhouse leader (in golf-speak) for the Angel Berroa Award as the worst regular in baseball after the namesake got demoted to AAA last week. Best of luck, Cristian.

The Kearns/Lopez deal was a rare stroke of Bowden genius. The relievers he sent won’t be missed this year and this team would be nothing without the offense he got in return. From all reports Bowden has attempted to pull the wool over some more eyes when unloading Chad Cordero; he is asking for numerous top prospects or major league ready players. Cordero’s stuff is questionable, over the last three seasons his WHIP and BABIP have been highly correlated. I’m sure this is true for most pitchers, but closers are generally not reliant on defense. He won’t get many opportunities to close games for this team, Bowden would be wise to trade him for whatever he can get.

As bad as the Jason Varitek contract looks right now, his one-time heir apparent, Brian Schneider, looked far more inept at the plate last year. Schneider’s $4m salary is no deal, but is the difference in slugging (.329 vs. .400) worth $6m? The trade talks involving Schneider were probably designed to manipulate Scott Boras through the media, but after the terms of Varitek’s contract were announced it was clear this strategy was ineffective. Schneider is praised for his defense and work ethic, certainly valuable skills for a catcher, but this team needs offensive depth more than a savvy backstop.

Left and Center field will be populated by a mix of Ryan Church (best offense), Alex Escobar (best defense), and Nook Logan (fast). As you can see, incompetence is widespread on this team.

The lone bright spot in the lineup, Zimmerman had the best rookie season since someone named Pujols. If he can avoid the sophomore slump he’ll solidify his reputation as a premier third basemen. PECOTA can be somewhat conservative when projecting young players, but in this case it’s predicting he’ll double his VORP to 47.9. That seems optimistic, he’ll be lucky improve marginally on 2006.

A general rule: when a rotation is terrible, the bullpen is unlikely to be any good. Surprise! The Nationals have some decent options after Chad Cordero! 6′11” Jon Rauch turned down a spot in the rotation to continue in the pen, and Luis Ayala and Saul Rivera did a great job keeping the ball in the park in significant innings. Sinker-baller Ryan Wagner walked a batter every two innings, which miraculously only resulted in a 4.69 ERA. When pitching to contact walks are far more detrimental, but Wagner must have been adept at squeezing out of jams or benefited from favorable double play timing. The aforementioned Speigner will be the long man, and lefties Michael O’Connor and Brandon Claussen will get their feet wet in the pen after returning from injury.

Keep an eye out for RHP Collin Balester around mid season. He’s barely cracked AA, but they could develop him with the big club if (when) the sh*t hits the fan. His minor league numbers are underwhelming, but he’s been impressive this spring. “I have no fear. I will challenge anybody. I’m not afraid to fail. Failure is not a thing I’m scared of.” Excuse the dangling preposition, he sounds like he means business.

This will be the first of many rebuilding years for this franchise. They’re still playing a football facility, but by 2008 they are scheduled to open a new park. The ship won’t be righted, but by then at least a course will have been set.

By the way, the tagline for Shooter is “Yesterday was about honor. Today is about justice.” For the Nats, yesterday was about honor, but today is about beating my co-ed work softball team.

Prediction: 60-102.

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 3/26/2007 9:41 am

2006: 90-72, 3^rd in AL Central

Projected Lineup:
1. LF Scott Podsednik
2. 3B Joe Crede
3. DH Jim Thome
4. 1B Paul Konerko
5. RF Jermaine Dye
6. C A.J. Pierzynski
7. 2B Tadahito Iguchi
8. CF Darin Erstad
9. SS Juan Uribe/Alex Cintron

Projected Rotation:
Jose Contreras
Jon Garland
Mark Buehrle
Javier Vazquez
John Danks

Projected Closer:
Bobby Jenks

Outlook:

Thank God for Ozzie Guillen. 

Honestly, if it wasn’t for Crazy Ozzie ordering beanings, tossing around insensitive slurs, and pledging allegiance to Hugo Chavez, this version of the Pale Hose would be one of the most boring congregations of professional athletes ever assembled outside of the PGA Tour.  They really need to spice things up a bit.  Maybe Paul Konerko could grow a 6-inch beard like Jeff Bagwell (or Jim “The Anvil” Neidhart, for you fans of the 1980’s squared circle)?  Maybe Jermaine Dye could start breaking bats over his knee when he strikes out?  Maybe Scott Podsednik could start producing runs?  Meh.  At least Juan Uribe is trying to spice things up a by “letting his gat go pop-pop-pop”. 

While I can bemoan their style, I certainly can’t bemoan their results.  After winning their first championship since Shoeless Joe Jackson roamed the outfield, the Sox had a decent season in 2006, winning 90 games (4 more than the real Sox) but finishing behind the surprising Tigers and Twins.  Were it not for the Detroit team shocking the league with their pennant run, the Sox would have likely returned to the playoffs in 2006. 

Their strengths?  The long-ball (1^st in the American League with 236) and some durable starting pitching (their 5 starters averaged 206 innings pitched).  Four of those five pitchers will return, the exception being Freddy Garcia, who was traded away for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez. 

None of the South Side starters are really going to overwhelm you.  Their best pitcher is probably Old Man Forkball himself, Jose Contreras.  Behind the most well received illegal alien in history are a couple of workhorses who should continue to benefit from solid run support: Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland.  Buehrle’s K rate is declining, but he still has outstanding command and durability, and he still has the most misspelled last name this side of Joel Pineiro.  Javier Vasquez, on the other hand, still possesses the killer stuff, and still frustrates fans and fantasy teams everywhere, by continuing to yield large amounts of extra-base hits to go along with his great peripherals.  He did give up less HRs at Comiskey (that’s right, Comiskey), and could conceivably be the best pitcher in this rotation in 2007.

An interesting wildcard is the new kid in town, John Danks.  Never before having thrown an MLB pitch, Danks has already been anointed a starting pitcher by Guillen, after having a decent (but by no means great) season between AA and AAA last year.  The kid will be put to the test, facing some very tough teams on a regular basis in the AL Central.  He might hold down the fort and pick up some wins behind a steady offense, but if you’re looking for a Rookie of the Year candidate, you might consider looking elsewhere.  The team also has former Phillies prospect Gavin Floyd along with knuckleballer Charlie Haeger waiting in the wings, should a starter go down or should Danks perform terribly.

On to the bullpen, where GM Kenny Williams has added strength by taking part in one of the most-loved activities in baseball: robbing Dayton Moore.  Kenny went in and stole young promising lefty Andy Sisco from Moore, and he isn’t even a lock to make the team.  The Sox have several young hard throwing relievers to handle the late innings.   Closer Bobby Jenks returns to the pivotal role, along with the cannon-armed Mike MacDougal, one of the league’s most feared pitchers.  David Aardsma, the former high-profile draft pick, has come into his own as a solid middle reliever, along with occupying Page 1 of Baseball Encyclopedias everywhere.  Nick Masset is yet another right-hander who can blow hitters away with his high-90’s heat, while 30-year-old lefty Matt Thornton provides effective relief against hitters from both sides of the plate.  The final bullpen spot will likely go to left-hander Boone Logan, leaving the towering Sisco to work on his command in AAA.

As we take a look at the White Sox offense, I’ll start with one of baseball’s more interesting stories: Juan Uribe.  The SS may or may not have shot someone in the Dominican Republic last fall.  The trial has been postponed until July, so the Sox should have his services until at least that time.  Should Uribe need to go to court or the clink, the versatile Alex Cintron should step in to the role.  Cintron might actually be more productive at the position, so perhaps Sox fans should hope for a guilty verdict.  Tadahito Iguchi proved to be one of the most productive offensive second basemen in the league in 2006, and third baseman Joe Crede broke out with a .506 slugging percentage.  At first base, the Sox have the quietest 40 HR guy in baseball history, Paul Konerko.  The Providence native is healthy, only 32 years old, and coming off of his best season.  He has been crushing the ball this spring, and all indications point towards another excellent year.  Newly acquired DH Jim Thome was a monster in his first year in Chicago last season, belting 42 HRs and posting an OPS+ of 156.  He is a remarkably consistent hitter, but has been slowed by the back problems which are obligatory for big guys his age.  Those PA and G totals will continue to dwindle over the coming years, but he is still one of the most feared hitters in the game when he laces them on. 

While Chicago’s infield looks to be at least well above average, their outfield paints a different picture.  We have Jermaine Dye, who was one of the best hitters in baseball in 2006, returning to RF.  The gargantuan slugger is in his contract year, so he will have some tangible motivation for having another healthy, productive season.  However, 2006 was, by far, his best year in the majors, and he is now 33 years old.  Do not bank on a repeat performance near the top of the MVP voting columns, but he can perhaps be counted on for something in the ballpark of .280/.350/.500.  The rest of the outfield is a vast wasteland of offensive impotence.  Darin Erstad will get most of the time in CF.  I won’t spend any time ripping on him (Rob Neyer should take care of that for me), but the most Chicago can hope for is a modest improvement over Brian Anderson’s abortion of a season last year.  Scott Podsednik, out until mid-April, will be spelled by backup Rob Mackowiak until he is ready.  Podsednik will continue to be one of the most unproductive MLB starting outfielders, but he can, of course, steal a base or two.  AJ Pierzynski, 30, returns after a stellar season behind the plate.  The most hated catcher in baseball will have a solid backup in longtime Devil Ray starter Toby Hall.

Chicago is a team which should benefit from a few things: a durable, consistent rotation (a rare thing in today’s game), a lineup dotted with patient boppers, and an electric bullpen.  With the Detroit Tigers looking at a probable decline, Chicago might take advantage and earn a few more wins.  Then again, they still need to deal with Minnesota and Cleveland. 

Prediction: 90-72   

Comments (2)

By Zach, 3/23/2007 8:22 am

2006: 66-96, Last in NL Central

Projected Lineup
CF Alfonso Soriano (R)
SS Cesar Izturis (S)
1B Derrek Lee (R)
3B Aramis Ramirez (R)
RF Jacque Jones (L)
C Michael Barrett (R)
LF Matt Murton (R)
2B Mark DeRosa (R)

Projected Rotation
RHP Carlos Zambrano
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Mark Prior
LHP Rich Hill
RHP Jason Marquis

Projected Closer
RHP Ryan Dempster

The Cubs enter the 2007 season with expectations of a championship.  After a dismal 2006 campaign they spent $300 million on free agent acquisitions and, most importantly, will be reunited with a healthy Derrek Lee.  The pressure on this team will be greater than any of their peers; only the Red Sox  approached Cubs’ noise this offseason.  As you know, this isn’t the AL East, the Cubs don’t have the Yankees to blame if they struggle; Lou Pinella won’t be making excuses in an August press conference after being swept by the Brewers.  They have undoubtedly improved, but is it enough to put them over the top?

“Later, Dusty, don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.”  I don’t know how Cubs fans put up with him for as long as they did.  How could they sit back and watch Dusty destroy Mark Prior’s career without calling for his head?  I had a college  roommate that was a casual Cubs fan, whenever I mentioned Dusty he would smile and nod, acknowledging the fact that he was hurting the team, but at the same time he was fine with the fact that they were keeping him around because he was a lovable character.  Well, baseball managers aren’t meant to be lovable.  Joe Torre and Tony “Well, officer I’m just resting my eyes” LaRussa aren’t known for a jolly Santa Claus act, they’re successful because they can balance the attitude of the clubhouse and the wishes of the owners.  I suppose Jim Hendry deserves as much blame as Baker after he let him run wild with Prior in 2003.

If anyone is skeptical of Derrek Lee’s return after missing most of last season with a fractured wrist, he’s 22-43 (.512) with a couple of homers and 6 doubles so far this spring.  Welcome back.  In other news, I’m a founding member of the Alfonso Soriano Sucks Society (ASSS).  We might have gone a click too far, he’s overrated (.325 OBP), but he certainly doesn’t suck; 40/40 is certainly nothing to scoff at.  I found his attempts at the 40th steal hilarious.  He certainly took the “green light” literally, every time he reached first even the hot dog vendors knew he was going on the first pitch.   The offense is improved, but Lee is still the lynch-pin.  Soriano will be out of position twice over, batting leadoff and roaming centerfield.  At the same time, I don’t care if he is below average defensively.  He’ll make the routine plays and hit 35 homers.  Grady Sizemore can’t say that.

So, the best parts of this lineup are superior to the cream of other offenses, but Cesar Izturis (.631 OPS) is batting second?  This is a rare case where the whole is less than the sum of the parts.  Everyone’s right-handed, except Cliff Floyd (injured) and Jacque Jones (career .328 OBP).  Yeah, Aramis Ramirez is a good player and Mark DeRosa had a career year, but from one to nine this lineup looks pretty average.   Why did Matt Murton have to go in the Nomar trade?  I don’t think he’s more than a platoon player at this point, but I never understood why he was included in that deal.  Please explain it to me.  If the Cubs had a legitimate lead off hitter and Soriano was hitting fourth I might be convinced, but this lineup doesn’t scare me.

They didn’t give Big Z his contract, which is probably a smart move.  He reeks of contract year overachiever syndrome, so I’d proceed with caution in the fall.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s been a top 10 starter over the last three years, but his career numbers should determine his next deal.  Backhanded complement summary: he’ll be NASTY in 2007.

After Z the rotation is split between steady vets and high ceiling kids.  Ted Lilly’s three year 4.52 ERA should go down due to weaker opponents in the senior circuit and expectations are marginally above league average performance, no better, no worse.  He and Marquis are depth guys, while Rich Hill and Mark Prior have the talent to dominate.  If the kids get hurt or regress this team isn’t going anywhere.  When an analysis includes “if Mark Prior gets hurt” then maybe its time to scale back expectations a bit, mmmkay?  By June 1 Hill is their number two.  He’s 6′5”, left-handed, and his K rate was over 8 per nine in just under 100 IP last year.

The sooner Ryan Dempster loses the closer’s job, the better.  I (and my fantasy team) can’t wait for Kerry Wood to start unleashing that high heat in the ninth.  Projecting Wood as a reliever is a waste of time, but Dempster has been a ticking time bomb, surrendering 85 walks in 167 innings over the last two years.  Wood may not be ideal for the closer’s role, but he certainly has the stuff.  The rest of the pen is a mirror of the rotation.  Bob Howry struck out 71 in 76 innings while only walking 17, and Will Ohman held lefties to a .158 average.  Neal Cotts fell apart against righties last year, allowing a .579 slugging in 121 at bats versus .209 in 110 at bats in 2005.  Left-hander Scott Eyre had a reverse split, although he wasn’t particularly good against anybody last year.  If Cotts and Eyre return to form, this pen goes from a liability to a strength.

Sweet Lou has his work cut out for him.  A power-laden lineup that won’t get on base matched with a solid but risky rotation and a talented bullpen with ambiguous roles equal a season long headache.   Let me draw it up for you:

[(HOMERS–baserunners)+(Zambrano–Prior in the trainer's room)]/Ryan Dempster  = ?

On the other hand, if anyone can do it, Lou can.

Projection: 93-69

Comments (1)

By Zach, 3/20/2007 3:11 pm

2006: 78-84, 4th in AL West

Jimmy, where do you get those fancy pictures?

Projected Lineup
CF Ichiro (L)
3B Adrian Beltre (R)
DH Jose Vidro (S)
LF Raul Ibanez (L)
1B Richie Sexson (R)
RF Jose Guillen (R)
C Kenji Johjima (R)
2B Jose Lopez (R)
SS Yuniesky Betancourt (R)

Projected Rotation
RHP Felix Hernandez
LHP Jarrod Washburn
RHP Miguel Batista
RHP Jeff Weaver
LHP Horacio Ramirez

Closer
RHP J.J. Putz

It’s midnight in a Philadelphia hotel, and the only thing I want to happen in the next five minutes is the dude in the next room to realize the porn preview is A) on repeat or B) extremely loud. If he’s dead am I a witness? Gross.

It’s teams like the 2007 Mariners that give me hope. They give me hope that I’m not just some shmuck waxing and waning on the internet with words that no one particularly wants to read. They give me hope that this magical game isn’t run by a group of super-powered geniuses turned CEOs. They give me hope that someday I’ll have my happiness in the palm of my hand instead of trusting it to strangers. Why? Because I know I could run a better baseball team.

Career OBP: .328
2004 OBP: .388

Career SLG: .457
2004 SLG: .629

Career High HR (other than 04): 25
2004 HR: 48

2007 Salary: $11.5 million

Pencils down. If I have to tell you whose numbers these are, you’re coming to the wrong site. Of course, he’s only one in a long line of those who have made Bill Bavasi look like a fool. Do you think the baseball ops interns ever have to leave a conference call during fit of the giggles because Bavasi started comparing pitchers based on wins or third basemen on batting average? He’s clearly not mentally sound, someone please call a doctor.

Then there was the Rafael Soriano deal. And the Jose Vidro signing. And the Miguel Batista contract. Every general manager makes mistakes, perfection is impossible in a business based on guessing opinions, but to fail at such a consistent and obvious level is unprecedented. Even keeping Mike Hargrove manning the wheel, a guy that hasn’t had a winning season since 1999, is cause for concern. Put down that coffee, Seattle, and have an old fashioned witch hunt with Bill Bavasi the target.

He must see something I don’t in Horacio Ramirez. He’s left-handed, but his upside is around league average and he has regressed the last two seasons. Money was thrown at Jarrod Washburn and Batista like they were the last pitchers available, while both have shown flashes of brilliance they are far from sure things. Jeff Weaver is back in the AL, and probably has the most raw talent out of any of these guys. I expect Safeco to be on his side more than most and emerge as the most reliable starter in this group. Wow, I never thought I’d be endorsing Jeff Weaver.

Like a middle school crush, PECOTA is enamored with Felix Hernandez, projecting a 3.75 ERA and 8 K/9. Its certainly not an unreasonable expectation but the kid is still learning how to pitch and I can’t imagine the tone of a Johjima-Felix mound conversation. I tend to agree with Keith Woolner’s research on the lack of impact a catcher has on his pitchers’ performance, except in extreme situations. I’m about to go off on a tangent here, but after watching Varitek for the last 10 years (holy shit it’s been that long?) I think an excellent game calling catcher provides more than simply pitch selection, but a mental edge based on trust. A pitcher is always told to “trust his stuff” but how is that possible he perceives the guy the behind the plate as incompetent? I’m not saying Johjima can’t call a game, but everything I’ve heard suggests he doesn’t attempt to develop a relationship with his pitchers. A catcher that’s one step ahead of batters will be a calming influence on any hurler. Give Felix a few weeks with a guy like ‘Tek and his performance improves, guaranteed.

You can count me out of the J.J. Putz fan club. Did you suddenly realize that it was easier to get outs when the guys didn’t hit the ball? Why did your strike out numbers double last year while your innings increased marginally? Did someone just now explain that three strikes is the same as a groundout? I’m just not making the connection here. Thirty year old pitchers don’t have the drastic about-face like that you experienced in 2006. If I’m your GM, I wait at least a half a season before I trade your best set-up man and injury insurance for half his value. Oh wait, that already happened. What could Rafael Soriano have netted the M’s in June? Well, if the Red Sox closer situation shakes out like our worst fears, Craig Hansen and David Murphy could have been in teal before the summer sun is at its peak. Good thing we don’t have to worry about that.

For the record, I’m not panicking about the Sox closer sitch. I think the need will be addressed as soon as its clear that it is a need. Cool as a cucumber. That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it.

After Putz (and maybe even including him) the pen is pretty average. Chris Reitsma is looking to bounce back but his previous best was underwhelming. Julio Mateo had the makings of a decent season before he dropped a stack of weights on his non-throwing hand, he should be full strength. Jon Huber had a very nice debut in the bigs last year, after his transition to the bullpen in the minors in 2004 he has adjusted well and achieved some demonstrable success. Arthur Rhodes and George Sherril are the lefties, and Cha Seung Baek will be the long man and first to step into the rotation. Baek wasn’t as good as his 3.67 ERA suggests after his call up from Tacoma last fall, Tristan Cockcroft should maybe look at his home run and strikeout numbers before declaring him a suitable replacement for Jeff Weaver.

From the Commissioner’s office: I’ve been asked by King Selig to take it easy on ole Bavasi for the next few paragraphs. Don’t worry, I’m not selling out.

I like the Mariners’ outfield. Raul Ibanez was very good again last season, if not providing good defense he complemented the other hitters in the lineup to the tune of 123 RBI. He loves hitting at lefty-friendly Safeco, his OPS is 120 points higher, but still can’t figure out LHP. It would make a lot of sense to have a capable right handed hitting fourth outfielder to spell Raul against LHP, unfortunately none of those words describe Jeremy Reed. Some of the best moves are the ones you never make, eh Theo? RHH Adam Jones might be up by midseason if Reed tanks again.

The addition of Jose Guillen moves Ichiro to center. Look for a number of frozen ropes from the gap in right to third base with these two guys fighting over doubles. Nobody has tremendous range, so balls will get down, but they’ll make up for it with obscene assist numbers. Guillen will provide nice value, I don’t care if he’s a bad clubhouse guy and has played on 7 teams since 2001. There’s no way he repeats his legendary 23 bombs/21 doubles in 315 at-bats, but a one-year $5.5m deal isn’t terrible. Ichiro is in his walk year, but an improvement is unlikely just because he’s set the bar so high. His 2004 is one of the greatest seasons of this decade, so I’d expect somewhere between last year’s .370/.416 and that .414/.455. He’s never hit for power in the states like he did in Japan, maybe his looming free agency will inspire him to hit the weights. Truly a one of a kind player, no one else gets on base with such frequency without displaying much patience at the plate.

Poor fielding second basemen suddenly deserve jobs as designated hitters? Jose Vidro has hit a total of 14 home runs over the last 2 seasons so he’s not exactly suited for cleanup, but that’s where he’s penciled in as of today. His value is probably halved or worse when he’s moved out of position. I find it very hard to believe that an offensive output comparable to Vidro’s couldn’t be found in the scrap heap of some roster if position isn’t a factor. Jose Lopez is no wizard out there either, PECOTA says he cost the team 18(!) runs last year on defense, so this roster is handcuffed by two poor fielding second basemen, both of whom are middle of the pack offensively. Give this GM a raise.

That deep left field gap in Safeco is a graveyard for Richie Sexson homers. He hits to all fields, but loves to unleash his long, slow swing and pull the ball into the gap in left. He’s just 32 and will produce up to his career averages, but don’t expect any more 45 homer campaigns when he plays 82 in Safeco.

The M’s are going to pay quite a bit for each win in 2007; there are a lot of overpaid bums enjoying the laid back lifestyle in the Pacific northwest. Ichiro’s pending contract negotiations will be a season long distraction as this team determines its direction and I’m very interested in how these talks play out. They have clearly built a fan base around him and their owner is Japanese so they have a vested interest in him, but the way money has been thrown around the last two offseasons might make them pause before a nine-figure deal. As much as I’d like to watch him in Boston, I can’t see him anywhere but in a Mariner’s uni. They’ll get it done.

EDIT: I just realized I forgot to include my record prediction.

Projected finish: 75-87

Comments (1)

By Zach, 3/15/2007 2:38 pm

2006: 96-66, 1st in AL Central, swept by Oakland Athletics in LDS

Projected Lineup
2B Luis Castillo (B)
3B Nick Punto (B)
C Joe Mauer (L)
RF Michael Cuddyer (R)
1B Justin Morneau (L)
CF Torii Hunter (L)
LF Rondell White (R)
DH Jason Kubel (L)
SS Jason Bartlett (R)

Projected Rotation
LHP Johan Santana
RHP Boof Bonser
RHP Carlos Silva
RHP Ramon Ortiz
RHP Matt Garza

Closer
RHP Joe Nathan

“Contraction is coming. There will be at least two fewer teams in the major leagues next year. Is it the answer to all the ails baseball? Absolutely not. Is it a proper step in attempting to restructure the economic foundation of the greatest game in the world? Absolutely.”
- Karl Ravech, February 8, 2002

If Bud got his wish back in 2001, maybe Justin Morneau would be be wearing a B on his cap instead of the interlocking TC.  Then again, maybe Joe Mauer would work in the Bronx.  The lowly Twins of eight straight sub-.500 finishes were being circled by the vultures known as the Major League Baseball attorneys, destined for the guillotine, or so King Selig would like us (and the Players’ Association) to believe.  Well Bud, your “competitive imbalance” and “economic crisis” have changed quite a bit since then.  Les Expos Neauvoux are now drawing on the wealth of Washington and the Twins stadium deal will go through, eventually.  Owner Carl Pohlad has expressed a commitment to the Twin Cities, reaching deeper into his pockets to make the stadium deal work than he’s put into the payroll in years.  Across the board, owners are making record profits and salaries have skyrocketed.

Every team has a flaw.  In Minnesota, it’s a thin rotation in which two young pitchers are expected to improve.  While the lineup will come close to their 801 runs scored last year, the pitching staff will undoubtedly surrender more than 683.  The loss of wunderkid Fransisco Liriano will be felt to the core.  Carlos Silva must return to his 71/9 K/BB form of 2005 for the Twinkies to contend in 2007.

I still chuckle every time I hear “Boof Bonser.“  In my mind he’s some twisted Biff Tannen/Cliff Claven doppleganger.  I hope you realize there is no greater praise than being compared to those two American heroes; by the way, John Ratzenberger is on the new season of “Dancing with the Stars.”  I think I’ll go tango with my mailman to show my support.  The Pohlad grandkids are rooting for Boof to catch Marty McFly this time around, hoverboard and all.  Two-plus years in AAA?  An 18 start tryout on a team that didn’t care if you failed?  It’s put-up or shut-up time Biff, I mean…Boof.  Really though, he was pretty damn good last year, a 4.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are worth a “Good job, Rook, now carry my luggage and put on that tutu.”  If not a “thank you” or “nice legs” afterwards.

What happened to you, L’il Pedro?  You used to scare my socks off when I saw you in the Pitching Probables against Frank Castillo.  It certainly didn’t look like you were juicin’, you couldn’t have been more than 165 back in 2002.  You’ve bounced from Cincinatti to Les Expos Neauvoux and now you’ve landed in the Hefty (TM) bag.  An ERA around 5.00 is approximately the upper boundary on success from Rrrrrramon Ortiz.  P.S. I keep rolling my rrrr’s like a latino porn star and inadvertently gleeking all over my keyboard. Try it, I’m sure the intern in the cube next to you will think its totally sexy.

It turns out that parts of California are NOT on the beach.  I know, I was floored as well.  I was ready to launch into a tirade about how lucky Matt Garza was for sailing through a few years at Fresno State, striking out over-matched opponents and hangin’ out on the beach with a bevy of buxom beauties, but there are no beaches in Fresno according to Google Maps.  Well, at least he’s got all that talent to fall back on.  The 2005 top draft pick has been nothing but successful since joining the professional ranks, I only question his ability to increase his innings over a long schedule.  Thankfully, the Twins organization has been historically adept at keeping young starters healthy (save Liriano).  If he continues on the same trend he’ll be no worse than the third best pitcher on this team.

Everyone’s favorite rowdy Aruban, Sidney Ponson, will be there to eat some innings in the event of injury.  Scott Baker also provides some depth, and wasn’t as bad as his 6.37 ERA suggests.  His April 14th start against the Yankees is evidence enough of his ability.  Another hot prospect, Glen Perkins, is waiting in the wings.

So, the Radke era is over.  (Tear.)  He was a bastion of consistency, unfortunately he wasn’t consistently excellent.  The Twins have successfully reloaded with young starters, but there won’t be time for development in a strong and balanced division.  Last year the offense underwent a similar transition.  No longer is Torii Hunter the centerpiece of the lineup, my MVP, Joe Mauer, and his sidekick Justin Morneau emerged to no one’s surprise as elite hitters.  I’m confident that Mauer will be similarly good, if not win another batting title, but I have my doubts about More-No.  For all the praise heaped on young Joe, little is uttered about Justin.  My hesitance to proclaim him the next Todd Helton is based on instinct more than reason, everything about his numbers suggests continued success.

From the “holy shit, I didn’t see that coming” department we’re joined by Michael Cuddyer.  He doubled his previous best home run and RBI totals, which is no doubt remarkable, but his 130 Ks don’t bode well.  He walked a fair amount (62), but I hate swings and misses nearly as much as I hate the NCAA selection committee right now.  This team is very left-handed, they need a guy like Cuddyer to produce for everything to jive.  No pressure, kid.  Cut down those Ks and we’ll talk.

The top of the lineup did its job reasonably well last year, but regression should be expected.  Luis Castillo is no spring chicken, he’ll be 32 by the end of the season, and his talent for getting from point A to point B faster than the average player will wane with every step.  He’s never been a five tool guy, but he’s a patient hitter (3.98 P/PA) and usually provides solid defense.  Nick Punto is a Gardenhire favorite, but also lacks any semblance of power.  He’s slotted for the two hole, but he’s a bottom of the barrel corner infielder.  His range is adequate for second base and he has experience there, so look for him to take over for Castillo in 2008.  I can definitely see Mike Lowell in a Twins uni next year.

Outfield defensive skill is very difficult to measure, and perception (usually of centerfielders) is often skewed by what I like to call The Griffey Effect.  I know you remember when Ken Griffey Jr. was basically the co-host of Sportscenter, making catches over the Kingdome wall nightly like it was old hat.  People like myself saw this and drew the conclusion that he was a fantastic defensive CF.  Well, obviously a player that has a wall just high enough to jump over in his home stadium will be better at making those catches, have more chances to do it, and therefore save a few more home runs.  I’m not saying Griffey is a poor centerfielder, but fans and experts alike jumped to the conclusion that he was the best based on a bad sample.  Torii Hunter is another beneficiary of the Griffey Effect.  It’s his walk year, so he should be in money-making shape.

The left field situation is shaping up to be a battle.  Incumbent Rondell White is still making a go of it, but he’s got  old friend Lew Ford, Jason Tyner, and another Gardenhire favorite in Josh “Broccoli” Rabe contending for the job.  DH Jason Kubel might get some time there as well.  Matthew LeCroy is back in Minny after a quick jaunt to our nation’s capitol, look for him spelling Kubel at DH against tough lefties.  Let’s hope, for everyone’s sake, he doesn’t get any time behind the plate.  If you’ve forgotten there was an ugly incident that involved a few dozen passed balls one fateful afternoon last summer.

Jason Bartlett is the shortstop by default, but Red Sox Rule 5 pick Alejandro Machado might see some time.  Gardenhire has said the Punto won’t be used at short, but I don’t exactly understand why.  Veteran Jeff Cirillo will be a pinch hitter and utility infielder.

The Twins had the best bullpen in baseball last year.  After Joe Nathan they were Jesse Crain (3.52 ERA), Dennys Reyes (0.89!), Matt Guerrier (3.36), and Juan Rincon (2.91).  I know ERA is a poor judge of a reliever’s ability, but when a bullpen has five guys under 3.52 something is working.

Brian Sabean and his masterful acquisition of A.J. Pierzynski has laid the groundwork for a bright future in Minnesota.  This season will be moderately frustrating, but after some of the fat is trimmed next offseason, Liriano comes back strong, and the kids get another year of seasoning the Twins are poised to contend for years to come.  There’s also some dude named Johan Santana.

Prediction: 85-77

Comments (3)

By Zach, 3/12/2007 7:59 am

2006: 62-100, 5th in AL Central

Lineup
CF David DeJesus (L)
2B Mark Grudzielanek (R)
RF Mark Teahen (L)
DH Mike Sweeney (R)
1B Ryan Shealy (R)
3B Alex Gordon (L)
LF Emil Brown (R)
C Jason LaRue (R)
SS Angel Berroa (R)

Rotation
RHP Gil Meche
LHP Odalis Perez
RHP Luke Hudson
LHP Jorge de la Rosa
RHP Zack Greinke
Closer
Octavio Dotel

In continuation of the “soft stuff in the middle” phase of the Dewey’s House previews, I present your 2007 Kansas City Royals!

Over the last three seasons the Royals have allowed more than 905 runs and scored less than 757, which has translated to a pitiful best of 100 losses. Since winning 83 in 2003 there has been little joy on the banks of the Missouri River, with Mike Sweeney the biggest loser in this disaster. After making it clear during 2003 contract negotiations that he would remain loyal as long as the Royals were committed to winning, his stipulation of a .500 finish in 2003 locked him into the final three years of the deal. He should have been more aggressive in his winning demands, since then he has languished on a miserable team, watching his prime years slip away due to injury.

In five of the six major team pitching categories, the Royals were dead last in the league in 2006. If you’re curious, they managed 12th place in saves. It would be too easy to recap the things that went wrong in 2006, and after all, this is a preview not a review. In the great words of the Bart and Lisa’s overlord Kang “We must move forward… not backwards, not to the side, not forwards, but always whirling, whirling, whirling towards freedom” (Treehouse of Horror VII). I’ll do us all a favor and move on.

Hope rests in the talent of third basemen Alex Gordon. The second overall pick in the 2005 draft tore through the system like his pants were on fire, tossing up a AA 1.015 OPS and stealing 22 of 25 bases in 2006. He’s had a bit of a sore shoulder this spring after diving for a ball, but should be out no more than a week. Rarely does a young player move a team’s best hitter out of position, but Buddy Bell has said that Gordon will push Mark Teahen to the outfield. Teahen made a vast improvement over his poor effort in 2005, but I’d say he played to the height of his ability last year. That’s not to say he’ll be a liability either in the field or at the plate, everyone should be happy with a WARP around 5.5. He’s athletic and has the arm for right field; his transition should be a smooth one.

David DeJesus and Ryan Shealy round out possibly the AL’s most talented group of young players that will be opening day starters. If not a perfect lead off hitter, DeJesus gets on base at a good clip (.364) and runs well. He’s not a stolen base threat, with a career high of eight (with 11 caught stealing). I’ve always enjoyed watching DeJesus play, and it’s not because of his movie-star good looks. Shealy looks and swings a little like Travis Hafner and is destined to end up a designated hitter once Mike Sweeney bolts town after this season, opening up 1B for prospect Justin Huber. The oft-injured Sweeney has missed at least 40 games over the last 4 seasons so he’ll need to remain healthy this year if he hopes to get a multi-year deal after 2007. He’s a young 33 so breaking the 30 home run barrier for the first time in his career isn’t out of the question. I wouldn’t expect anything approaching his 2000 total of 144 RBIs, but he’ll once again be the centerpiece of the KC lineup.

I don’t know much about Esteban German’s defense at 2B, but it must be pretty awful if they chose to resign aging Mark Grudzielanek instead of giving German and his .422 OBP the job. Third base is crowded and Reggie Sanders has the fourth OF spot, so German will be the first guy off the bench in the infield. I put Emil Brown slightly ahead of Sanders for the starting job in left based mostly on youth over age, but it could easily be the opposite.

The recipient of the inaugural Dewey’s House Worst Regular of the Year award is Angel Berroa. He managed to finish last in the league in both OBP and SLG, which miraculously translates to a last place finish in OPS as well. Somehow his OPS+ is still 48; that’s gotta be a bug in the formula. I think we should rename the DHWROY simply, the Berroa, but I can’t start making decrees just yet. His defense was bad, and his offense could be replaced by anyone not named Tony Womack. The situation at short has moved from an Orange Alert to firmly Red, and it doesn’t get much better from here. Angel Sanchez is the heir apparent, but evidently his power stroke compares more favorably to your sister’s than to Alex Gordon’s. German should be worth a look at short, but that makes way too much sense.

The end of the lineup is easily the worst in the league. Jason LaRue and Berroa’s OPS+ is a respectable 113, when added together. John Buck will be in the mix behind the plate as well, but was only slightly less terrible than LaRue last year.

In one of the most confusing and shortsighted signings of this offseason, Dayton Moore threw $55 million at Gil Meche for league average performance. I wish I could get my salary tripled for being completely average, I think I’ll bring up the case of Gil Meche during my next performance review. For what it’s worth, he’s the “ace,” maybe he’ll find his new title inspirational.

If you’re a chick (doubtful) and you’re ever on plane with Odalis Perez (also highly unlikely) DON’T give him your phone number. There is a story behind that, but maybe Mrs. Odalis reads Dewey’s House and I wouldn’t want to be responsible for any marital difficulties. Let’s just leave it at that. In terms of performance, Odalis also might be league average. When your top two starters have a “solid shot” at an average performance you might want to reevaluate your system.

My sleeper for a breakout season on this squad is Luke Hudson. He’s done a great job at preventing home runs, averaging half a homer every nine innings last year. If he can continue to get his share of groundball outs and keep the ball in the park his .315 BABIP should go down, along with his ERA. The defense (Berroa) behind him has probably hurt him significantly in the past.

The two spots at the end of the rotation are still unclear, but it will be some combination of Zack Grienke, Jorge de la Rosa, Brian Bannister, and eventually 2006 number one overall pick Luke Hochevar. The first two guys on that list are the favorites, as they have the most major league experience, but it will be a trial by fire for the young guys. In KC, even the major league squad is a development team.

After last year’s guy-that-pitched-at-the-end-of-games (I hesitate to call anyone with a S/BS ratio of 18/12 a closer) Ambiorix Burgos was shipped to the Mets for Bannister, Dayton Moore addressed the need in the form of Octavio Dotel. I guess Dotel has a decent chance of coming back, but he certainly won’t be helped by the abuse his arm took with other organizations. Still, it was an uncharacteristically good move at $5 million with valuable bonuses. Dotel will get $200,000 for each five games finished after 15. I’d agree that 20 saves are worth $200k more than 15, and his base salary is right in Joel Pineiro’s tax bracket. After Dotel, Joel Peralta, David Riske, Todd Wellemeyer, and Ken Ray should get the majority of the innings in roughly that order.

The house of David Glass has been on shaky ground lately and this season’s additions won’t prevent the coming disaster. If Hochevar develops as scheduled and Billy Butler and Mitch Maier stay healthy and on track the Royals will have a lot to show for those 100 loss seasons and high draft picks. Right now, everybody’s 0-0, so there’s a little hope. Take solace in the fact that you aren’t the worst team in the league, yet.

Prediction: 65-97

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 3/11/2007 6:43 pm

Projected Lineup:
SS Hanley Ramirez
2B Dan Uggla
3B Miguel Cabrera
LF Josh Willingham
1B Mike Jacobs
RF Jeremy Hermida
C Miguel Olivo
CF Alex Sanchez

Projected Rotation:
Dontrelle Willis
Scott Olsen
Anibal Sanchez
Ricky Nolasco
Yusmeiro Petit

Projected Closer:
Henry Owens

Outlook:
It just doesn’t seem fair, does it? 

The Marlins, an expansion team with ugly uniforms and approximately 17 fans, come into the league in 1993, and 4 years later, they are World Champions.  6 years after that, they are World Champions again.  They have seen several Future Hall-of-Famers, 4 no-hitters, 22 playoff wins, and 33 All-Stars.  And then, just when we think they blew the team up, just when we think they will be rebuilding with dozens of green, unprepared rookies and Rule 5 Draft fodder, they shock the baseball world by hanging in the NL Wildcard race into autumn.

And, of course, adding insult to injury for us Sox fans, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez both have outstanding rookie campaigns, while Josh Beckett is mediocre in his AL debut.  

The Fish actually should have won more games than they did in 2006, as their Pythagorean record was 80-82.  Looking ahead to 2007, there is good news, and there is bad news.  The good news is that they will be returning almost every key player from 2006, most of whom are young and improving.  The bad news is that one of their best pitchers, 23-year-old RHP Josh Johnson, is expected to miss 2 months with an arm injury.  In light of this, Florida still has a decent rotation at their disposal.  The D-Train, Dontrelle Willis, provides the rotation with a durable anchor, although he is slightly inconsistent.  His 4 year career can be divided into 2 parts: superb Dontrelle, and good Dontrelle.  Given his pedestrian strikeout rate, would say the real Dontrelle is closer to the 2006 version (a durable above-average pitcher) than the 2005 version (a lights-out ace).  Young LHP Scott Olsen has the impressive peripheral stats that indicate a possible future ace.  In his rookie year, after making the jump from AA (like several of these lucky…err…talented bastards), Olsen shined with 166 Ks in 180 innings.  His minor league track record suggests this was no fluke, as he average well over a K per inning before getting the call.  He has excellent stuff and is seemingly durable.  Look for Olsen to take ownership of this rotation over the next few years. 

Anibal Sanchez, of course, brought joy to Miami (and bitterness to Boston) with a no-hitter in September, along with a bunch of other decent performances, posting a 152 ERA+ in his rookie season.  One caveat to note: his stellar 2006 performance was over a half-season.  NL hitters are still getting used to our old Portland Sea Dog friend, and his performances should be expected to normalize a bit in 2007.  I’m not saying he won’t be good, I think he will be a decent pitcher.  Just don’t expect a right-handed version of Johan Santana.  His stuff isn’t that good.  24-year-old Ricky Nolasco was the team’s 5^th starter for the majority of 2006, and actually was a closer candidate heading into spring training.  However, the injury to Josh Johnson forces Nolasco back into the rotation.  Ricky looks to improve upon a year in which he was the weak link of the rotation, giving up a 4.82 ERA and having the highest HR rate on the staff. 

The fifth starter in the rotation has yet to be determined, and the battle is among a handful of guys.  A few weeks ago, I would have assumed Sergio Mitre to be the front runner for the gig, but he is again having issues with injuries.  Yusmeiro Petit, the former Met prospect, was recently very impressive against a powerful Red Sox lineup in spring training. With Mitre hurt, Petit look to have as good of a chance as any of the other candidates.  Wes Obermueller, Jose Garcia, and Chris George round out the competition for the final rotation slot. 

While the Marlins rotation seems young and impressive, the bullpen is just plain young.
With Nolasco moving back to the rotation, the closing duties seemed to be bestowed upon 24-year-old LHP Taylor Tankersley.  Taylor impressed in his MLB debut, with a 2.85 ERA and 46 Ks over 41 innings.  However, Tankersley is reportedly out until mid-April with shoulder inflammation.  This would make rookie Henry Owens, with only 4 career innings pitched at the MLB level (and a career 9.00 ERA) the likely closer to start the year.  Why is he the likely closer, do you ask?  Well, in AA last season, his averaged 16.65 Ks per 9 innings.  That is not a typo.  16.65 Ks per 9 innings.  It will be very interesting to see what this guy can do in the National League.  RHP Matt Lindstrom, who has yet to throw a pitch above AA, is reportedly a dark horse candidate for the closer’s job.  Word on the street is that the righty boasts a 100 MPH fastball and a slider to compliment the heat,  but I can’t conceivably see him winning the role over Owens , not without some kind of injury.

Behind the closer candidates is 24-year-old lefty Reynel Pinto, who was very impressive in a brief sample last season, RHP Kevin Gregg, a “veteran” compared to these other guys (he’s been around for 4 years, and RHP Randy Messenger.

We now move onto what is possibly the most promising young infield in the major leagues, especially the left side.  Franchise player Miguel Cabrera is coming of another great season in which he hit .339/.430/.568, and played solid 3B defense (24 FRAR).  Given his age and his offensive trends, this guy could possibly emerge as baseball’s best player in 2007 (he’s already on the short list with Pujols and A-Rod).  At shortstop is last year’s unlikely Rookie of the Year, old friend Hanley Ramirez.  Should Red Sox fans be upset about this? No.  Hanley and Beckett are now two completely independent entities, and his success has nothing to do with Boston (unless, of course, the Sox happen to be playing Florida).  Anyway, a lot of folks really bemoaned this deal with some 20/20 hindsight, but let me remind all of you: nobody expected Hanley to be this good.  In 2005, in AA, Hanley’s line was this: .271/.335/.385.  Next year, in the major leagues, he improves to .292/.353/.480?  I can’t really fault the Sox for this; it just seems like Hanley had a bit of a fluke season.  Expect a regression for Hanley, with numbers closer to that Portland line.  Speaking of fluke seasons, Dan Uggla etched his name into the records of great Rule 5 picks such as Johan Santana and Roberto Clemente.  The second baseman made the All-Star team and finished third in Rookie of the Year voting, while bashing 27 HRs and slugging .480.  Like his double play partner, expect a slight deflation of what appear to be some overly inflated power numbers.  I would not be surprised to see Mike Jacobs out-produce both Uggla and Ramirez in 2007.  The 26-year-old has some genuine power, with a career slugging percentage of .515.  Backing up the infielders will be Aaron Boone (yes, he’s in Florida now…that pick-up basketball game was more damaging that Chris Webber’s TO in the Final Four) and Alfredo Amezaga.

While the Florida infield has some young, proven talent, the outfield picture is a bit cloudier.  Jeremy Hermida, who was expected to be one of the best rookies in the 2006 class, is looking to improve upon what should probably be called a disappointing season.  He hasn’t lit any fires in spring training, going 0-14 thus far, but we’ll wait until April to pass judgment on the kid. Converted catcher Josh Willingham returns to LF after sharing the team lead in homers with Cabrera.  He’s still learning the ropes in the outfield, as his defense I 2006 was sub-par (-11 FRAR), but he is a legitimate power bat, and will provide some much-needed pop.

Their choices in CF are not exactly appetizing.  The #1 contender, Alex Sanchez, is best known for being the first guy suspended from the revamped MLB steroid policy.  Sanchez did play well in 2005 and in the minors in 2006, and could probably outplay last year’s CF, Reggie Abercrombie.  Abercrombie posted a dismal line of .212/.271/.333 in 2006, which isn’t any better than Cody Ross: .212/.284/.396, or Joe Borchard:  .230/.322/.400.  Eric Reed (.098/.178/.098) is also an option (yikes).  Unless a move is made, the Fish could very well be looking at a festering hole in the middle of their 2007 outfield.  Miguel Olivo and Matt Treanor will handle the catching duties.  Oliva does have some pop, and is a decent defensive catcher, but Treanor does not bring much to the table on either side of the ball. 

While the Marlins have a very promising young lineup, and the layperson might look at this and think: “Gosh, these guys are all going to get better”, I can’t help but predict a massive regression to the mean by Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, and to a lesser extent, Taylor Tankersley and Anibal Sanchez.  However, those regressions will likely be offset by improvement from the likes of Hermida, Olsen, possibly Willis, and (as scary as it is) Miguel Cabrera. 

Expect 3^rd place.

Projection: 79-83

Top 10 Prospects:
Chris Volstad, RHP
Taylor Tankersley, LHP
Sean West, LHP
Reynel Pinto, LHP
Henry Owens, RHP
Matt Lindstrom, RHP
Gaby Hernandez, RHP
Chris Coghlan, 3B
Jose Garcia, RHP
Aaron Thompson, LHP