Comments (7)

By Zach, 2/11/2008 11:39 am

Cancel the season. The Mets have added the best pitcher in baseball. They’ve transformed their 2007 contenders to Vegas favorites. The rest of the division has faded away or moved laterally. But, wait! Not so fast, obnoxious-NYC-daily-rag-columnist! This race is not over.

Every team would love to add Johan Santana. Will it be enough to put the aging Mets over the top? With another season on the odometer of Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner and Pedro Martinez, their backups: Jeff Conine, Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa; will play a large role. A single injury to one of their ancient porcelin princesses will crack the shaky ice on which Omar Minaya has thrown his chips. Pretty much any doomsday-cliche works here, I guess it’s just salt in the wound at this point. Where the Phillies and Braves are lacking in top flight rotation talent, they make up for in balance and depth. Oh, and the Nationals and Marlins play the punching bags.

New York Mets

2007: Actual 88-74, Pythag 87-75
2008 Projected: 94-68

I really, really wanted to pick someone else to win the East. I wrote several versions of this column, one with a very weak case for the Phillies offense carrying them and another with the Braves possessing just enough depth to win. I think it will be heartbreak-close, but the Mets will pull it out. That is, if they don’t lose 11 of their last 16 and fold like a scared puppy that just peed on the rug, again.

Lineup:
SS Jose Reyes (S)
2B Luis Castillo (S)
3B David Wright (R)
CF Carlos Beltran (S)
1B Carlos Delgado (L)
LF Moises Alou (R)
RF Ryan Church (L)
C Brian Schneider (L)

I guess a 150 OPS+ and 34/5 SB/CS are only good enough for fourth in the MVP voting. Amazingly, David Wright‘s 2007 season was accepted with quiet aplomb. The New York media effect couldn’t put him over the top, even though he had sexier numbers than Jimmy Rollins at an important defensive position. He can’t be blamed for “the meltdown;” his best two months were August and September.

Perception of the other member of the Mets’ left side is skewed in the opposite direction. Jose Reyes collects accolades for his disruption on the basepaths, but his middling OBP and lack of power prevent his ascension into legitimate All-Stardom. Yes, he’s made two mid-summer classics, but it’s absurd that he stole some MVP votes from Wright in 2007. 78 is a lot of stolen bases, but Wright’s success rate was far better. I’d apologize for this “David Wright got robbed” tirade if it wasn’t true. Sorry, Mets fans, but you’ve got the third best shortstop in this division and Yunel Escobar has a fighting chance to move you down another notch. In fact, Escobar (.451) outslugged Reyes (.421) in 2007. Congrats, Jose, Cristian Guzman will never touch you.

Don’t expect as much from the rest of the infield. Luis Castillo and Carlos Delgado have seen better days. Brian Schneider and Church came at the cost of Lastings Milledge, but expectations are for Schneider to work on receiving. Alou should be league average in left and Beltran will earn every bit of his $13.5m.

CL Billy Wagner
RHRP Aaron Heilman
LHRP Pedro Feliciano
RHRP Matt Wise
LHRP Scott Schoenweis
RHRP Duaner Sanchez

When the inevitable catastrophic elbow explosion happens to Billy Wagner, the pen should be able to weather the storm. Heilman would slide into the closer’s role, which he and his 1.07 WHIP are qualified for, and solid lefty Pedro Feliciano would set-up. After that it’s righty Matt Wise (1.45 WHIP) and nearly cooked Scott Schoenweis. The long-anticipated return of Duaner Sanchez from a freak shoulder injury would do wonders to a thin but talented pen.

LHP Johan Santana
RHP Pedro Martinez
RHP John Maine
LHP Oliver Perez
RHP Orlando Hernandez
RHP Jorge Sosa

Pedro and El Duque should be treated as one starter, because they’re all but guaranteed to miss significant time. That means pressure on Maine and Perez to repeat their success in 2007. Jorge Sosa had one magical season in Atlanta, but other than that he has never had a league average ERA. Minaya has been rumored to be after Kyle Lohse. He’s no stud, but another option if Sosa struggles in place of Pedro or the Duke. After an amazing first half, John Maine’s August (6.32 ERA) and September (5.93) are worrisome.

This could be a great rotation, but the question marks are larger than Atlanta’s, Plan B is shaky, and there is no Plan C: Pelfrey isn’t ready (1.70 WHIP, 1.15 K/BB). There are two reasons the Mets will win this divison:

1. Santana will tear through the NL like a Curt Schilling at an Old Country Buffet
2. 2007 Oliver Perez (120 ERA+, 8.85 K/9) started the journey back to the unhittable 2004 version (145 ERA+, 10.97 K/9), if he splits the difference, watch out for the Mets.

Atlanta Braves

(2007: Actual 84-78, Pythag 89-73)
2008 Projected: 93-69, 1 GB

Some argue that juggernaut offenses are the key to regular season success. I say starting rotation depth cures the 162 game grind. Injuries, especially among pitchers, happen. Every time an ancient journeyman starter takes the hill because there’s noone else to go that day, I cringe and immediately blame the general manager for a failure to anticipate the unexpected. Uh, yeah, I guess that makes sense. The 2008 Braves will not have a high scoring offense, but they will hit and they have more rotation depth than anyone.

RHP John Smoltz
RHP Tim Hudson
LHP Tom Glavine
LHP Chuck James
RHP Jair Jurrjens
RHP Buddy Carlyle
LHP Mike Hampton
LHP Jo-Jo Reyes
RHP Anthony Lerew

That, dear reader, is a pile of arms. There are throbbing uncertainties in Glavine, Hampton, and the kids; but the volume of starters available to the Braves is astounding. Jurrjens wasn’t spectacular in seven starts for the Tigers and may require some time in AAA. Jo-Jo Reyes averaged about a strikeout per inning in the minors, so he’ll get another shot after struggling (69 ERA+, 0.9 K/BB, 50.2 IP) in 2007. It may take a few months, but they’ll figure out the best five and come on strong in the second half.

CL Raphael Soriano
LHRP Mike Gonzalez
RHRP Peter Moylan
RHRP Manny Acosta
LHRP Will Ohman
LHRP Royce Ring

The bullpen doesn’t have so much depth, but Soriano is solid at the end. Hear that, Bavasi?! If you don’t remember, Bill Bavasi traded Soriano for Horacio Ramirez (7.16 ERA) in the 2006 off-season. Mike Gonzalez may or may not be back from 2007 elbow-ligament-replacement surgery. And since I’m sick of giving Tommy John getting all that free press, that’s how I will refer to that procedure. Peter Moylan‘s return from the scrap heap is worth mentioning, ambiguous Wikipedia wording aside:

1997, After failing to make the Major Leagues, Moylan left the Major League Baseball system. He then took a job as a pharmaceutical salesman in Australia. At a certain point Moylan improved his pitching and began his comeback.

That certain point was the World Baseball Classic in 2006. Sounds fishy to me. He’s a rare commodity: a sidearmer with some heat. Serious regression should be expected; he caught a lot of people by surprise in 2007. The lefties are led by Will Ohman with Royce Ring and newly aquired Jeff Ridgway. None of those are fantastic options so Gonzalez’s recovery is important.

Lineup:
2B Kelly Johnson (L)
SS Yunel Escobar (R)
1B Mark Teixeira (S)
3B Chipper Jones (S)
C Brian McCann (L)
RF Jeff Franceour (R)
CF Mark Kotsay (L)
LF Matt Diaz (R)

They’ve bid adieu to Andruw Jones and replaced him with Mark Kotsay. In name recognition and merchandise sales that’s a huge downgrade, but in actual offensive production Jones is only about 10% better, using career average OPS+. Defensively, Kotsay gets good jumps and takes good routes which make up for his average speed. The future in the outfield isn’t a big concern for new GM Frank Wren, because Jordan Schaefer (.294/.354/.477 in 106 G) had a breakout season in high-A. He’ll start at AA and may debut opening day 2009. Watch for 2007 draftee Jason Heyward as well. Edgar Renteria was shipped to Detroit for Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez, a nice package facilitated by continued Red Sox subsidization of Edgar’s contract. At least Theo the Gunslinger knew when to fold ‘em. Yunel Escobar (.326/.385/.451 in 319 major league at bats) was ready, and the job is his to lose.

The above illustrates Chipper Jones’ career, in games played and OPS+. It shows that he was an ironman for nine years, but the wear and tear caught up to him in 2003 and 2004. With a reduced workload he has regained his former dominance. He’s thirty-six, so a decline would be natural, but if he’s limited to 120 games he can play another three years. A contract year boost from Chipper or Mark Teixiera and a return to 2006 form from Brian McCann and this offense will be just fine to win in the National League.

Philadelphia Phillies

(2007: Actual 89-73, Pythag 87-75)
2008 Projected: 88-74, 6 GB

Dude, Pedro Feliz is not the answer. The ghost of Mike Schmidt has haunted the hot corner in Philly for a decade, turning likes of David Bell, Abraham Nunez and Wes Helms into quivering piles of ineptitude. Feliz’s range was best in the NL according to zone rating, but his historic ability to make outs is well documented. His .290 (!) career OBP is nothing short of terrifying.

SS Jimmy Rollins (S)
CF Shane Victorino (S)
2B Chase Utley (L)
1B Ryan Howard (L)
LF Pat Burrell (R)
RF Jayson Werth (R)/Geoff Jenkins (L)
3B Pedro Feliz (R)
C Carlos Ruiz (R)

The Phils return the second best offense in baseball (5.51 RPG) missing Aaron Rowand (123 OPS+) in center. The platoon combination of Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins has awesome potential. Hat tip to former Dewey’s House writer Patrick Sullivan at Baseball Analysts. The offense is not the problem.

LHP Cole Hamels
RHP Brett Myers
RHP Kyle Kendrick
LHP Jamie Moyer
RHP Adam Eaton

Solid at the top, but fades quickly. While we were pointing and lauging at old man Charlie Manuel, he actually found a strength in Brett Myers at the end of the pen. Myers is being reluctantly dragged by the hair back into the rotation following the addition of Brad Lidge. There are a few unwritten chapters in this epic drama. Hamels will contend for the Cy Young, but the injury concerns around his 6’3″ 175 pound frame will persist for the rest of his career. In eleven of his twenty-eight starts in 2007, he threw between 110 and 121 pitches. Tread lightly.

Kyle Kendrick had an impressive rookie campaign marred by a disappointing loss in the NLDS to Colorado. Down 0-1 at home, the Phils needed KK to step up and he layed an egg (3.2 IP, 5 ER). Coming out strong will endear him to Manuel and cement his spot in the rotation. Don’t scoff at Jamie Moyer. He’ll take the ball for another 30+ starts at league average production. If the Phils could say the same about Adam Eaton, they’d be in decent shape. Unfortunately, an infusion of young talent isn’t close. Carlos Carrasco had a poor season at AA Reading after a solid first half in the FSL. Kyle Drabek has great stuff, but an elbow injury requiring ligament replacement surgery has halted his development until 2009. The upper minors is a barren wasteland outside of fringe LHP prospect Josh Outman.

CL Brad Lidge
RHRP Tom Gordon
LHRP J.C. Romero
RHRP Ryan Madson
RHRP Scott Mathieson
RHRP Clay Condrey

The Lidge rollercoaster has arrived. Astros’ GM Ed Wade lobbed a meatball to his former team, dealing the talented but inconsistent pitcher for Michael Bourn and Geoff Geary. Lidge’s inconsistency could soon force Myers back to the pen. After losing his closer’s job immediately in 2007, Lidge regained his form and role by midseason with a few minor hiccups along the way. He still strikes batters out at an high rate (11.82 K/9 in 2007) but allows baserunners (1.25 WHIP) and doesn’t “bear down” with runners on (.770 OPS with runners on versus .686 with bases empty).

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies made a run at the division. They should be no worse than third, considering the dreck that’s next. This is turning into a novel, so bear with me.

Florida Marlins

(2007: Actual 71-91, Pythag 72-90)
2008 Projected: 70-92, many GB

Rebuilding? To me, rebuilding happens after some success. The Marlins have bucked the trend and launched into full rebuilding-mode after finishing fifty games out of first. Low standards? Check. I understand that this was the only option, but Dontrelle Willis had far more value two years ago, and it was clear at that point that this wasn’t a playoff team. He should have been dealt long ago for much more, and the Marlins could be two years into this process. It will be a long time before there’s joy in South Florida; at least the return will have an immediate impact. Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and Mike Rabelo will be contributors in 2008, whether they’re ready or not.

Rotation:
LHP Scott Olson
RHP Sergio Mitre
LHP Andrew Miller
RHP Ricky Nolasco
RHP Rick VandenHurk
LHP Mark Hendrickson

Ages: 24, 27, 23, 25, 23 and old man river Hendrickson at 34. There will be growing pains, but there will be progress. Josh Johnson is out until 2009 with ligament replacement surgery, and Anibal Sanchez has yet to throw off a mound after 2007 shoulder surgery. His ETA is mid-season at best. Olson was wildly inconsistent in 2007. The big lefty Miller is polished for his tender age, and would contend for ROY if he were eligible. If you’re wondering, the limits to rookie eligibility are 130 at-bats, 50 IP, or 45 days on a ML roster. Miller threw 64 innings in 2007.

Lineup:
CF Cameron Maybin (R)
RF Jeremy Hermida (L)
SS Hanley Ramirez (R)
1B Mike Jacobs (L)
2B Dan Uggla (R)
LF Josh Willingham (R)
3B Dallas McPherson (R)
C Mike Rabelo (S)

Only if I were running things. The irrational crush on stolen bases will cost the Marlin untold runs because manager Fredi Gonzalez will bat Hanley Ramirez first, twisting a stick in the eye of baseball nerds everywhere. His value isn’t in getting on base, but producing runs in the middle of the lineup. Every aspect of his offensive game improved in 2007.

This isn’t meant to be a projection. It is meant to illustrate how much Ramirez improved from 06 to 07. The 2008 column shows his production if the trend continued into 2008. It would be the best three-year improvement in the history of the game (I have no data to back that up), and unlikely, but if he continues at a rate half of which he showed he’ll still be among the top five players in baseball. He’s a butcher in the field, comfirmed by John Dewan’s zone rating (.786, last in NL). You may be interested to know that he’s superior to one shortstop measured by ZR, Captain Derek Jeter. Hanley’s OBP has been driven by hits, but he’s hit enough. The area of his offensive game that can be improved the most is his patience at the plate.

Maybin struggled (.143 BA) in a short stint in the bigs last year, but he’s a well-developed 20-year-old with power and speed. He’s surrounded by Hermida and Willingham in the outfield, both of whom where productive in 07. Willingham is ancient at 29 and his value has declined since moving from behind the plate. Rabelo, a native Floridian, has his first starting gig. He caught Miller a few times last season with Detroit.

CL Kevin Gregg
RHRP Justin Miller
RHRP Matt Lindstrom
LHRP Taylor Tankersley
RHRP Lee Gardner
RHRP Daniel Barone

The bullpen will miss Henry Owens, out for the first half after shoulder surgery. Kevin Gregg is the highest paid player on this team at $2.5 million. Wait, Craig Hansen has made more money than the highest paid Marlin? Actually, the bullpen isn’t as weak as you’d expect from a team with a payroll in the $15 million range. Miller had his best season last year (1.24 WHIP, 74 Ks, 61 IP) and the kids have some talent.

There’s a lot of potential in the starting eight, but the rotation lacks the experience and depth to contend. It won’t be pretty.

Washington Nationals

(2007: Actual 73-89, Pythag 71-91)
2008 Projected: 66-96, a bazillion GB

About a year ago, I wrote the Gnats team preview for Dewey’s House. I predicted 102 losses. They beat my prediction by 13 wins. Their bullpen was stronger than expected (3.81 ERA) and a couple of players (Shawn Hill, DaMeatHook) had good seasons. They open Nationals Park in 2008, which looks pretty average. Gee, was “Baseball Stadium” taken? The marketing guru behind “Nationals Park” needs to start smoking pot or something.

Rotation:
RHP John Patterson
RHP Shawn Hill
RHP Jason Bergmann
LHP Matt Chico
RHP Tim Redding

It appears that Patterson is fully recovered from elbow problems that have sidelined him since 2005. He threw 100 pitches February 9th with no pain. He was one of the top pitchers in the game in his last full season, and will earn less than $1 million this year. He’s got 4+ years of service, so the motivation of impending free agency should drive him. I think he’ll return to form. Hill had elbow and shoulder problems last year, as well as surgery in October to repair a torn labrum. That sentence has more red flags than a communist rally. Bergmann/Chico/Redding will eat some innings. The Nats success will be inversely proportional to number of starts Mike Bacsik (Back-zit?) gets.

Their minor league system is vastly improved under Jim Bowden. Baseball America sings his praises by launching them from 30th to 9th in their organizational rankings. 22 year old lefty Ross Detwiler could make an impact as soon as the second half of 2008, but their decision to bring him up for one appearance in 2007 is curious. First basemen Chris Marrero hit 14 homers in 54 games at Class A.

Lineup:
SS Cristian Guzman (S)
CF Lastings Milledge (R)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)
1B Dmitri Young (S)
RF Austin Kearns (R)
LF Wily Mo Pena (R)
2B Ronnie Belliard (R)
C Johnny Estrada (S)

This is an odd lineup. Beyond the lack of a true left handed hitter; vets like Nick Johnson, Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca don’t have starting jobs. PLoD (thanks, Capitol Improvement) was signed as a free agent before his implication in the Mitchell report and knee injury. Bowden must not expect much from LoDuca, because he subsequently nabbed Johnny Estrada and relegated Jesus Flores to Columbus. This post on a BBTF message board from a Brewers fan purporting to be in the know, on Estrada, “he is beyond toxic. He drinks nuclear waste for breakfast and pisses hate. That he is bi-lingual only means he can alienate twice as many people twice as fast.” Maybe he can room with Elijah Dukes?

Lopez was shopped all off-season for pitching, to no avail. He’ll be a $4 million backup. Nick Johnson is on his way back from a broken leg, but will have to win the job from Young. Zimmerman broke his hamate late in 2007, a bone injury notorious for lingering and taking away power.

CL Chad Cordero
RHRP Jon Rauch
RHRP Luis Ayala
RHRP Ryan Wagner
RHRP Jesus Colome
RHRP Saul Rivera

Again, no good left handed option. Detwiler could be the answer, but developing a 22 year old in a major league bullpen is stupid. It might work in brief ‘Joba Chamberlain‘ situations, but not over an entire season. Rauch and Cordero are good against lefties so it might work with smoke and mirrors.

The biggest problem is the injury concern at the top of the rotation. The Nats could run through 15-20 starters again before they figure anything out. They’ll be closer to my failed 102 loss prediction than their actual 89.

In Summary:
Mets 94-68
Braves 93-69
Phillies 88-74
Marlins 70-92
Gnats 66-96

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 4/13/2007 9:02 am

With the game rained out last night, there is pretty much nothing Sox related to talk about. So I’ll talk about something that seems to have flown under the national radar…Don Imus!

Actually, due to a stirring combination of school work, and Guitar Hero II, I had a late night last night and have nothing much to say, so I’ll test out our new table feature by giving some hitting stats for the Angels and Red Sox.

Stat Guide:
g – Games
pa – Plate Appearences
ba – Batting average
ob% – On base percentage
slug – Slugging percentage
rc/27 – Runs created per 27 outs
risp – Runs added to offense with hits while runners are in scoring position. This is based on expectation.
mob – Runs added to offence with home runs while men are on base. The is based on expectation.
con – contact rate
bb% – percentage of plate appearences that end with an unintentional walk
k% – percentage of plate appearences that end with strikeout
iso d – Isolated discipline (OB%-BA)
iso s – Isolated slugging (Slug-BA)
DP Rate – Approximate double plays per oppertunity

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 3/28/2007 1:34 pm

2006 Record: 80-82, 3^rd place, AL West

Projected Lineup:
1. CF Kenny Lofton
2. LF Frank Catalanotto
3. SS Michael Young
4. 1B Mark Teixeira
5. DH Sammy Sosa
6. 3B Hank Blalock
7. RF Nelson Cruz
8. C Gerald Laird
9. 2B Ian Kinsler

Projected Rotation:
Kevin Millwood
Vicente Padilla
Brandon McCarthy
Jamey Wright
Robinson Tejeda

Projected Closer:
Eric Gagne

Outlook:
This Texas Rangers franchise has been in a holding pattern for what seems like eons, plagued with the misfortune of playing in an uber-competitive 4 team division and consistently coming up short in September.  However, things have been trending upward for Ron Washington’s crew, as last year’s squad had a Pythagorean record of 86-76.  In addition to this, division rival Oakland might be nearing the end of their magic-carpet ride, and Seattle hasn’t done much to climb out of the cellar this offseason.  By default, Texas could be looking to pick up a few games in their division in 2007. 

The usual Achilles’ Heel down in Arlington is a lackluster starting rotation.  Now that the squad is no longer under the shadow of Chan-Ho Park and his abomination of a contract, GM Jon Daniels has focused on bringing quality, durable arms to the Lone Star State.  The most interesting guy in the rotation this year is Brandon McCarthy, acquired from Chicago in the John Danks trade.  What Texas did was trade a promising “almost-ready” pitcher for a promising “ready right now” pitcher, in the hopes of opening a window for contention.   After the 23-year-old was used primarily as a reliever in 2006, he will begin the season in the rotation.  Anchoring the rotation will be Kevin Millwood, who won 16 games and posted a 3:1 K:BB ratio in his Texas debut season.  It’s hard to believe that the big right-hander is only 32, because he’s been around for quite some time, providing conistent innings for the past decade.  Vicente Padilla is another solid workhorse, whose performance was nearly identical to Millwood’s in 2006. 

Along with McCarthy, another wildcard in the rotation is 25-year-old Robinson Tejeda.  The Dominican native does have potential, but will need to improve his control (career 4.7 BB per 9 innings) to stay out of trouble in the offense-happy Texas ballpark.  Veteran right-hander Jamey Wright is the favorite to begin the season as the 5^th starter.  Wright does have a knack for preventing the long-ball, which will come in handy in his new surroundings.  However, like Tejeda, he will need to keep the walks under control to avoid dangerous situations.

While the rotation looks to be somewhat improved in the wake of the John Koronka Era, Texas will once again boast a strong bullpen.  Of course, the highlight of the relief corps is a seemingly healthy Eric Gagne, who could prove to be a steal for Jon Daniels as the closer in 2007. 

Texas does have a bevy of other hard-throwing relievers who should be ready to step in if/when Gagne goes on one of his DL vacations.  Gagne will be treated with kid gloves, and a few save opportunities will likely go to last year’s closer, Akinori Otsuka, who dazzled the Dallas area with 32 saves and a 2.11 ERA in 2006.  RHP Frank Francisco (who is best known as the guy who smashed a female White Sox fan with a chair a few years ago) has been plagued by elbow problems since his Mick Foley impersonation, only throwing 7 innings since 2004, but does still have powerful stuff and could prove to be a solid set-up man once again.  Joaquin Benoit had impressive strikeout numbers in 2006 (9.6 per 9 innings), and will be counted on when the rotation can’t make it into the later innings.  Left-hander C.J. Wilson was murder on lefty hitters last season (.155 OBA), and former Red Sox Ron Mahay is still effective against hitters from both sides of the plate.  RHP Kameron Loe appears to be the loser of the spring 5^th starter battle, and will likely be used as a long/mop-up man.

The main strength of the Rangers (as always) will be their offense.  One of the biggest surprises of the spring has been the performance of a guy who was seemingly cast into baseball purgatory, Sammy Sosa.  Sosa has belted to the tune of .409/.426/.773 in spring training, and while Cactus League performances should always be taken with a heaping mound of salt, the legendary slugger certainly seems determined to go out with a bang, perhaps eradicating some of the negativity surrounding his rumored steroid use.

Along with Sosa, the Rangers infield will provide 4 decent bats for the middle of the order.  First baseman Mark Teixeira looks to improve from his “off” year in 2006, when he hit .282/.371/.514 while playing excellent defense. Teixeira actually had a 2^nd half surge last season (.998 post All-Star break OPS), and is a solid bet to be one of the most productive hitters in the AL in 2007.  At third base, Hank Blalock is also looking to improve in 2007, after playing hurt most of last season.  At age 29, All-Star shortstop Michael Young improved the one hole in his game last season: defense.  Young went from -15 FRAA in 2005 to +23 FRAA in 2006, while playing in all 162 games and smacking over 200 hits for the 4^th straight season.  Young second baseman Ian Kinsler is a potential 20 HR/20 SB guy, and with Young, should combine to form one of the best offensive middle-infields in the game.  Utilitymen Jerry Hairston Jr. and Matt Kata will serve as the primary infield backups. 

While the infield is stocked with powerful bats, the outfield picture isn’t nearly as bright, after the departure of the $100 Million Dollar Man, Carlos Lee.  Ancient speedster Kenny Lofton, whose primary skills are declining faster than the stock market, should see most of the starts in CF, with Brad Wilkerson backing him up (as well as playing the occasional 1B to spell Teixeira).  26-year-old Nelson Cruz is having a good spring, and will start in RF this season.  He does have potential, hitting .302/.378/.528 with 17 SBs in AAA Nashville, and could be a surprise producer in this lineup.  Red Sox killer Frankie Catalanotto will occupy left field, and should provide a solid top-of-the-order bat (career .362 on-base percentage).  The departure of Rod Barajas leaves longtime Texas backup Gerald Laird the starting catcher.  Laird hit very well in a reserve role in 2006, and can also provide a solid mitt behind the plate.  He’ll be backed-up by one of Chris Stewart and Miguel Ojeda this season (yet to be determined, as of this writing).

While the Texas pitching staff has improved and the infield is chock-full of young, promising stars, the team still has glaring weaknesses.  Unless Nelson Cruz breaks out, that outfield could be one of the worst in the league.  The catching corps is unproven, and the strong bullpen does have some serious injury risks.  This team will once again be looking at limbo, unless there are some miraculous comeback performances from DH and the bullpen.  Looking at the way certain guys are looking this spring, it certainly could happen.  This crystal ball shows a 2^nd place finish, and a pat on the back for new manager Ron Washington.

Prediction: 85-77.

Comments (5)

By Zach, 3/27/2007 6:18 am

2006: 67-95, Last in NL East

Lineup
2B Felipe Lopez (S)
SS Christian Guzman (S)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)
RF Austin Kearns (R)
1B Dmitri Young (S)
C Brian Schneider (L)
LF Ryan Church (L)
CF Alex Escobar (R)

Rotation
RHP John Patterson
RHP Jerome Williams
RHP Shawn Hill
LHP Matt Chico
RHP Jason Simontacchi

Closer
Chad Cordero

What a f*cking mess. The temptation to put “a bunch of bums” after John Patterson in the rotation was nearly too great to resist, and it would do as much to describe the drivel assembled here as their given names. The lineup is mildly terrible at best, Zimmerman is a good player but on any other team he’d be part of the supporting cast. Jim Bowden is like the studio exec that saw Mark Wahlberg in The Departed and decided that he could reprise his role as leader of the the funky bunch in “Shooter.” Well, he can’t carry a movie any better than Kearns and Zim will carry this offense.

If an “ace” is defined as the most talented pitcher on a team, Patterson qualifies. However, many believe that an ace must measure up to the elite of rotations across the league, if you’re of that school of thought Patterson is probably closer to Gil Meche than Brandon Webb. The strategy for filling out the rotation went something like this:

1. Collect inexperienced kids
2. Find a few journeymen with their tank just above empty
3. Audition everyone in spring training before hitters have their timing
4. Make a decision based on bad information
5. See who sticks in the bigs
6. Repeat

So the winners are Hill, Chico, and Williams. Simontacchi might miss some time with a strained groin, opening up the last spot for the struggling Tim Redding (16 H, 11 ER, 8.2 IP). Williams has the most experience, he started 17 games in 2005 with some success. While talented, he’s had as much trouble staying healthy as I have paying my Upper East Side rent. Hill has 9 career starts and Chico has never thrown a pitch in the bigs, so this rotation could be completely different two weeks into the season. They should shatter the record of 37 pitchers used by the 2002 Padres. I’ll put a sawbuck on the over, you game?

It looks like Nick Johnson might not play this season, creating a giant hole at first base. Don’t expect much from the 2007 version of Dmitri Young. How the mighty have fallen. It seems like just yesterday Dmitri was whimsically whacking some poor college kid in a bratwurst suit with a bat during the 5K sausage race in Milwaukee, today the former All-Star (albeit he was a Ken Harvey-esque selection) has dried out since his domestic violence charge last year. Apparently Dmitri had a little too much to drink and took out his frustration on his girlfriend. Its a good thing there are franchises like this to sponsor Dmitri Young during his rehabilitation, the Nats are like baseball’s halfway house. With all the uncertainty at first, someone like Larry Broadway might see significant time. He sounds like a cool guy and I bet he looks really boss in a leather jacket, but he’s never cashed in on his potential as a player. He’s in the right place at the right time, this team doesn’t care about his 116/45 K/BB ratio in AAA. For even more first base “depth,” Travis Lee has reappeared in Washington. When your veteran mentor couldn’t hang on the Devil Rays, you might start thinking about a new strategy for bench players. Hey, maybe Manny Acta can squeeze in some at bats for Robert Fick or Tony Batista! It isn’t called depth when none of the options are any good.

Roster flexibility is a product of foresight and usually makes a GM’s job easier. If there’s a little breathing room for a useful Rule 5 pickup thats always a nice boost to a farm system. However, there should never be enough room for TWO Rule 5 picks Jesus Flores will backup at catcher and Levale Speigner is in the mix for the starting rotation. Not even perennial Cy Young candidate Johan Santana was a starter as a Rule 5er. Jim Bowden is a pioneer in the poor roster management department. Has any team ever carried two 5ers for the duration?

Felipe Lopez had a nice season in 2006, and there’s little pressure on him this year. He’s part of the rare breed of hitters that have the same OBP(.362) as slugging (.365), also known as the Tony Womack All-Stars. Lopez is a serviceable leadoff guy and will steal bases every chance he gets with Cristian Guzman hitting behind him. Also an atypical hitter, Guzman has struck out 567 times in his career, while only drawing 191 walks and hitting 43 home runs. Basically, he doesn’t do anything right at the plate or in the field. He cost the Nats 13 runs on defense in 2005, his last full season, and makes $4.6m. He’s the clubhouse leader (in golf-speak) for the Angel Berroa Award as the worst regular in baseball after the namesake got demoted to AAA last week. Best of luck, Cristian.

The Kearns/Lopez deal was a rare stroke of Bowden genius. The relievers he sent won’t be missed this year and this team would be nothing without the offense he got in return. From all reports Bowden has attempted to pull the wool over some more eyes when unloading Chad Cordero; he is asking for numerous top prospects or major league ready players. Cordero’s stuff is questionable, over the last three seasons his WHIP and BABIP have been highly correlated. I’m sure this is true for most pitchers, but closers are generally not reliant on defense. He won’t get many opportunities to close games for this team, Bowden would be wise to trade him for whatever he can get.

As bad as the Jason Varitek contract looks right now, his one-time heir apparent, Brian Schneider, looked far more inept at the plate last year. Schneider’s $4m salary is no deal, but is the difference in slugging (.329 vs. .400) worth $6m? The trade talks involving Schneider were probably designed to manipulate Scott Boras through the media, but after the terms of Varitek’s contract were announced it was clear this strategy was ineffective. Schneider is praised for his defense and work ethic, certainly valuable skills for a catcher, but this team needs offensive depth more than a savvy backstop.

Left and Center field will be populated by a mix of Ryan Church (best offense), Alex Escobar (best defense), and Nook Logan (fast). As you can see, incompetence is widespread on this team.

The lone bright spot in the lineup, Zimmerman had the best rookie season since someone named Pujols. If he can avoid the sophomore slump he’ll solidify his reputation as a premier third basemen. PECOTA can be somewhat conservative when projecting young players, but in this case it’s predicting he’ll double his VORP to 47.9. That seems optimistic, he’ll be lucky improve marginally on 2006.

A general rule: when a rotation is terrible, the bullpen is unlikely to be any good. Surprise! The Nationals have some decent options after Chad Cordero! 6’11” Jon Rauch turned down a spot in the rotation to continue in the pen, and Luis Ayala and Saul Rivera did a great job keeping the ball in the park in significant innings. Sinker-baller Ryan Wagner walked a batter every two innings, which miraculously only resulted in a 4.69 ERA. When pitching to contact walks are far more detrimental, but Wagner must have been adept at squeezing out of jams or benefited from favorable double play timing. The aforementioned Speigner will be the long man, and lefties Michael O’Connor and Brandon Claussen will get their feet wet in the pen after returning from injury.

Keep an eye out for RHP Collin Balester around mid season. He’s barely cracked AA, but they could develop him with the big club if (when) the sh*t hits the fan. His minor league numbers are underwhelming, but he’s been impressive this spring. “I have no fear. I will challenge anybody. I’m not afraid to fail. Failure is not a thing I’m scared of.” Excuse the dangling preposition, he sounds like he means business.

This will be the first of many rebuilding years for this franchise. They’re still playing a football facility, but by 2008 they are scheduled to open a new park. The ship won’t be righted, but by then at least a course will have been set.

By the way, the tagline for Shooter is “Yesterday was about honor. Today is about justice.” For the Nats, yesterday was about honor, but today is about beating my co-ed work softball team.

Prediction: 60-102.

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 3/26/2007 9:41 am

2006: 90-72, 3^rd in AL Central

Projected Lineup:
1. LF Scott Podsednik
2. 3B Joe Crede
3. DH Jim Thome
4. 1B Paul Konerko
5. RF Jermaine Dye
6. C A.J. Pierzynski
7. 2B Tadahito Iguchi
8. CF Darin Erstad
9. SS Juan Uribe/Alex Cintron

Projected Rotation:
Jose Contreras
Jon Garland
Mark Buehrle
Javier Vazquez
John Danks

Projected Closer:
Bobby Jenks

Outlook:

Thank God for Ozzie Guillen. 

Honestly, if it wasn’t for Crazy Ozzie ordering beanings, tossing around insensitive slurs, and pledging allegiance to Hugo Chavez, this version of the Pale Hose would be one of the most boring congregations of professional athletes ever assembled outside of the PGA Tour.  They really need to spice things up a bit.  Maybe Paul Konerko could grow a 6-inch beard like Jeff Bagwell (or Jim “The Anvil” Neidhart, for you fans of the 1980’s squared circle)?  Maybe Jermaine Dye could start breaking bats over his knee when he strikes out?  Maybe Scott Podsednik could start producing runs?  Meh.  At least Juan Uribe is trying to spice things up a by “letting his gat go pop-pop-pop”. 

While I can bemoan their style, I certainly can’t bemoan their results.  After winning their first championship since Shoeless Joe Jackson roamed the outfield, the Sox had a decent season in 2006, winning 90 games (4 more than the real Sox) but finishing behind the surprising Tigers and Twins.  Were it not for the Detroit team shocking the league with their pennant run, the Sox would have likely returned to the playoffs in 2006. 

Their strengths?  The long-ball (1^st in the American League with 236) and some durable starting pitching (their 5 starters averaged 206 innings pitched).  Four of those five pitchers will return, the exception being Freddy Garcia, who was traded away for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez. 

None of the South Side starters are really going to overwhelm you.  Their best pitcher is probably Old Man Forkball himself, Jose Contreras.  Behind the most well received illegal alien in history are a couple of workhorses who should continue to benefit from solid run support: Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland.  Buehrle’s K rate is declining, but he still has outstanding command and durability, and he still has the most misspelled last name this side of Joel Pineiro.  Javier Vasquez, on the other hand, still possesses the killer stuff, and still frustrates fans and fantasy teams everywhere, by continuing to yield large amounts of extra-base hits to go along with his great peripherals.  He did give up less HRs at Comiskey (that’s right, Comiskey), and could conceivably be the best pitcher in this rotation in 2007.

An interesting wildcard is the new kid in town, John Danks.  Never before having thrown an MLB pitch, Danks has already been anointed a starting pitcher by Guillen, after having a decent (but by no means great) season between AA and AAA last year.  The kid will be put to the test, facing some very tough teams on a regular basis in the AL Central.  He might hold down the fort and pick up some wins behind a steady offense, but if you’re looking for a Rookie of the Year candidate, you might consider looking elsewhere.  The team also has former Phillies prospect Gavin Floyd along with knuckleballer Charlie Haeger waiting in the wings, should a starter go down or should Danks perform terribly.

On to the bullpen, where GM Kenny Williams has added strength by taking part in one of the most-loved activities in baseball: robbing Dayton Moore.  Kenny went in and stole young promising lefty Andy Sisco from Moore, and he isn’t even a lock to make the team.  The Sox have several young hard throwing relievers to handle the late innings.   Closer Bobby Jenks returns to the pivotal role, along with the cannon-armed Mike MacDougal, one of the league’s most feared pitchers.  David Aardsma, the former high-profile draft pick, has come into his own as a solid middle reliever, along with occupying Page 1 of Baseball Encyclopedias everywhere.  Nick Masset is yet another right-hander who can blow hitters away with his high-90’s heat, while 30-year-old lefty Matt Thornton provides effective relief against hitters from both sides of the plate.  The final bullpen spot will likely go to left-hander Boone Logan, leaving the towering Sisco to work on his command in AAA.

As we take a look at the White Sox offense, I’ll start with one of baseball’s more interesting stories: Juan Uribe.  The SS may or may not have shot someone in the Dominican Republic last fall.  The trial has been postponed until July, so the Sox should have his services until at least that time.  Should Uribe need to go to court or the clink, the versatile Alex Cintron should step in to the role.  Cintron might actually be more productive at the position, so perhaps Sox fans should hope for a guilty verdict.  Tadahito Iguchi proved to be one of the most productive offensive second basemen in the league in 2006, and third baseman Joe Crede broke out with a .506 slugging percentage.  At first base, the Sox have the quietest 40 HR guy in baseball history, Paul Konerko.  The Providence native is healthy, only 32 years old, and coming off of his best season.  He has been crushing the ball this spring, and all indications point towards another excellent year.  Newly acquired DH Jim Thome was a monster in his first year in Chicago last season, belting 42 HRs and posting an OPS+ of 156.  He is a remarkably consistent hitter, but has been slowed by the back problems which are obligatory for big guys his age.  Those PA and G totals will continue to dwindle over the coming years, but he is still one of the most feared hitters in the game when he laces them on. 

While Chicago’s infield looks to be at least well above average, their outfield paints a different picture.  We have Jermaine Dye, who was one of the best hitters in baseball in 2006, returning to RF.  The gargantuan slugger is in his contract year, so he will have some tangible motivation for having another healthy, productive season.  However, 2006 was, by far, his best year in the majors, and he is now 33 years old.  Do not bank on a repeat performance near the top of the MVP voting columns, but he can perhaps be counted on for something in the ballpark of .280/.350/.500.  The rest of the outfield is a vast wasteland of offensive impotence.  Darin Erstad will get most of the time in CF.  I won’t spend any time ripping on him (Rob Neyer should take care of that for me), but the most Chicago can hope for is a modest improvement over Brian Anderson’s abortion of a season last year.  Scott Podsednik, out until mid-April, will be spelled by backup Rob Mackowiak until he is ready.  Podsednik will continue to be one of the most unproductive MLB starting outfielders, but he can, of course, steal a base or two.  AJ Pierzynski, 30, returns after a stellar season behind the plate.  The most hated catcher in baseball will have a solid backup in longtime Devil Ray starter Toby Hall.

Chicago is a team which should benefit from a few things: a durable, consistent rotation (a rare thing in today’s game), a lineup dotted with patient boppers, and an electric bullpen.  With the Detroit Tigers looking at a probable decline, Chicago might take advantage and earn a few more wins.  Then again, they still need to deal with Minnesota and Cleveland. 

Prediction: 90-72   

Comments (2)

By Zach, 3/23/2007 8:22 am

2006: 66-96, Last in NL Central

Projected Lineup
CF Alfonso Soriano (R)
SS Cesar Izturis (S)
1B Derrek Lee (R)
3B Aramis Ramirez (R)
RF Jacque Jones (L)
C Michael Barrett (R)
LF Matt Murton (R)
2B Mark DeRosa (R)

Projected Rotation
RHP Carlos Zambrano
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Mark Prior
LHP Rich Hill
RHP Jason Marquis

Projected Closer
RHP Ryan Dempster

The Cubs enter the 2007 season with expectations of a championship.  After a dismal 2006 campaign they spent $300 million on free agent acquisitions and, most importantly, will be reunited with a healthy Derrek Lee.  The pressure on this team will be greater than any of their peers; only the Red Sox  approached Cubs’ noise this offseason.  As you know, this isn’t the AL East, the Cubs don’t have the Yankees to blame if they struggle; Lou Pinella won’t be making excuses in an August press conference after being swept by the Brewers.  They have undoubtedly improved, but is it enough to put them over the top?

“Later, Dusty, don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.”  I don’t know how Cubs fans put up with him for as long as they did.  How could they sit back and watch Dusty destroy Mark Prior’s career without calling for his head?  I had a college  roommate that was a casual Cubs fan, whenever I mentioned Dusty he would smile and nod, acknowledging the fact that he was hurting the team, but at the same time he was fine with the fact that they were keeping him around because he was a lovable character.  Well, baseball managers aren’t meant to be lovable.  Joe Torre and Tony “Well, officer I’m just resting my eyes” LaRussa aren’t known for a jolly Santa Claus act, they’re successful because they can balance the attitude of the clubhouse and the wishes of the owners.  I suppose Jim Hendry deserves as much blame as Baker after he let him run wild with Prior in 2003.

If anyone is skeptical of Derrek Lee’s return after missing most of last season with a fractured wrist, he’s 22-43 (.512) with a couple of homers and 6 doubles so far this spring.  Welcome back.  In other news, I’m a founding member of the Alfonso Soriano Sucks Society (ASSS).  We might have gone a click too far, he’s overrated (.325 OBP), but he certainly doesn’t suck; 40/40 is certainly nothing to scoff at.  I found his attempts at the 40th steal hilarious.  He certainly took the “green light” literally, every time he reached first even the hot dog vendors knew he was going on the first pitch.   The offense is improved, but Lee is still the lynch-pin.  Soriano will be out of position twice over, batting leadoff and roaming centerfield.  At the same time, I don’t care if he is below average defensively.  He’ll make the routine plays and hit 35 homers.  Grady Sizemore can’t say that.

So, the best parts of this lineup are superior to the cream of other offenses, but Cesar Izturis (.631 OPS) is batting second?  This is a rare case where the whole is less than the sum of the parts.  Everyone’s right-handed, except Cliff Floyd (injured) and Jacque Jones (career .328 OBP).  Yeah, Aramis Ramirez is a good player and Mark DeRosa had a career year, but from one to nine this lineup looks pretty average.   Why did Matt Murton have to go in the Nomar trade?  I don’t think he’s more than a platoon player at this point, but I never understood why he was included in that deal.  Please explain it to me.  If the Cubs had a legitimate lead off hitter and Soriano was hitting fourth I might be convinced, but this lineup doesn’t scare me.

They didn’t give Big Z his contract, which is probably a smart move.  He reeks of contract year overachiever syndrome, so I’d proceed with caution in the fall.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s been a top 10 starter over the last three years, but his career numbers should determine his next deal.  Backhanded complement summary: he’ll be NASTY in 2007.

After Z the rotation is split between steady vets and high ceiling kids.  Ted Lilly’s three year 4.52 ERA should go down due to weaker opponents in the senior circuit and expectations are marginally above league average performance, no better, no worse.  He and Marquis are depth guys, while Rich Hill and Mark Prior have the talent to dominate.  If the kids get hurt or regress this team isn’t going anywhere.  When an analysis includes “if Mark Prior gets hurt” then maybe its time to scale back expectations a bit, mmmkay?  By June 1 Hill is their number two.  He’s 6’5”, left-handed, and his K rate was over 8 per nine in just under 100 IP last year.

The sooner Ryan Dempster loses the closer’s job, the better.  I (and my fantasy team) can’t wait for Kerry Wood to start unleashing that high heat in the ninth.  Projecting Wood as a reliever is a waste of time, but Dempster has been a ticking time bomb, surrendering 85 walks in 167 innings over the last two years.  Wood may not be ideal for the closer’s role, but he certainly has the stuff.  The rest of the pen is a mirror of the rotation.  Bob Howry struck out 71 in 76 innings while only walking 17, and Will Ohman held lefties to a .158 average.  Neal Cotts fell apart against righties last year, allowing a .579 slugging in 121 at bats versus .209 in 110 at bats in 2005.  Left-hander Scott Eyre had a reverse split, although he wasn’t particularly good against anybody last year.  If Cotts and Eyre return to form, this pen goes from a liability to a strength.

Sweet Lou has his work cut out for him.  A power-laden lineup that won’t get on base matched with a solid but risky rotation and a talented bullpen with ambiguous roles equal a season long headache.   Let me draw it up for you:

[(HOMERS–baserunners)+(Zambrano–Prior in the trainer's room)]/Ryan Dempster  = ?

On the other hand, if anyone can do it, Lou can.

Projection: 93-69

Comments (1)

By Zach, 3/20/2007 3:11 pm

2006: 78-84, 4th in AL West

Jimmy, where do you get those fancy pictures?

Projected Lineup
CF Ichiro (L)
3B Adrian Beltre (R)
DH Jose Vidro (S)
LF Raul Ibanez (L)
1B Richie Sexson (R)
RF Jose Guillen (R)
C Kenji Johjima (R)
2B Jose Lopez (R)
SS Yuniesky Betancourt (R)

Projected Rotation
RHP Felix Hernandez
LHP Jarrod Washburn
RHP Miguel Batista
RHP Jeff Weaver
LHP Horacio Ramirez

Closer
RHP J.J. Putz

It’s midnight in a Philadelphia hotel, and the only thing I want to happen in the next five minutes is the dude in the next room to realize the porn preview is A) on repeat or B) extremely loud. If he’s dead am I a witness? Gross.

It’s teams like the 2007 Mariners that give me hope. They give me hope that I’m not just some shmuck waxing and waning on the internet with words that no one particularly wants to read. They give me hope that this magical game isn’t run by a group of super-powered geniuses turned CEOs. They give me hope that someday I’ll have my happiness in the palm of my hand instead of trusting it to strangers. Why? Because I know I could run a better baseball team.

Career OBP: .328
2004 OBP: .388

Career SLG: .457
2004 SLG: .629

Career High HR (other than 04): 25
2004 HR: 48

2007 Salary: $11.5 million

Pencils down. If I have to tell you whose numbers these are, you’re coming to the wrong site. Of course, he’s only one in a long line of those who have made Bill Bavasi look like a fool. Do you think the baseball ops interns ever have to leave a conference call during fit of the giggles because Bavasi started comparing pitchers based on wins or third basemen on batting average? He’s clearly not mentally sound, someone please call a doctor.

Then there was the Rafael Soriano deal. And the Jose Vidro signing. And the Miguel Batista contract. Every general manager makes mistakes, perfection is impossible in a business based on guessing opinions, but to fail at such a consistent and obvious level is unprecedented. Even keeping Mike Hargrove manning the wheel, a guy that hasn’t had a winning season since 1999, is cause for concern. Put down that coffee, Seattle, and have an old fashioned witch hunt with Bill Bavasi the target.

He must see something I don’t in Horacio Ramirez. He’s left-handed, but his upside is around league average and he has regressed the last two seasons. Money was thrown at Jarrod Washburn and Batista like they were the last pitchers available, while both have shown flashes of brilliance they are far from sure things. Jeff Weaver is back in the AL, and probably has the most raw talent out of any of these guys. I expect Safeco to be on his side more than most and emerge as the most reliable starter in this group. Wow, I never thought I’d be endorsing Jeff Weaver.

Like a middle school crush, PECOTA is enamored with Felix Hernandez, projecting a 3.75 ERA and 8 K/9. Its certainly not an unreasonable expectation but the kid is still learning how to pitch and I can’t imagine the tone of a Johjima-Felix mound conversation. I tend to agree with Keith Woolner’s research on the lack of impact a catcher has on his pitchers’ performance, except in extreme situations. I’m about to go off on a tangent here, but after watching Varitek for the last 10 years (holy shit it’s been that long?) I think an excellent game calling catcher provides more than simply pitch selection, but a mental edge based on trust. A pitcher is always told to “trust his stuff” but how is that possible he perceives the guy the behind the plate as incompetent? I’m not saying Johjima can’t call a game, but everything I’ve heard suggests he doesn’t attempt to develop a relationship with his pitchers. A catcher that’s one step ahead of batters will be a calming influence on any hurler. Give Felix a few weeks with a guy like ‘Tek and his performance improves, guaranteed.

You can count me out of the J.J. Putz fan club. Did you suddenly realize that it was easier to get outs when the guys didn’t hit the ball? Why did your strike out numbers double last year while your innings increased marginally? Did someone just now explain that three strikes is the same as a groundout? I’m just not making the connection here. Thirty year old pitchers don’t have the drastic about-face like that you experienced in 2006. If I’m your GM, I wait at least a half a season before I trade your best set-up man and injury insurance for half his value. Oh wait, that already happened. What could Rafael Soriano have netted the M’s in June? Well, if the Red Sox closer situation shakes out like our worst fears, Craig Hansen and David Murphy could have been in teal before the summer sun is at its peak. Good thing we don’t have to worry about that.

For the record, I’m not panicking about the Sox closer sitch. I think the need will be addressed as soon as its clear that it is a need. Cool as a cucumber. That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it.

After Putz (and maybe even including him) the pen is pretty average. Chris Reitsma is looking to bounce back but his previous best was underwhelming. Julio Mateo had the makings of a decent season before he dropped a stack of weights on his non-throwing hand, he should be full strength. Jon Huber had a very nice debut in the bigs last year, after his transition to the bullpen in the minors in 2004 he has adjusted well and achieved some demonstrable success. Arthur Rhodes and George Sherril are the lefties, and Cha Seung Baek will be the long man and first to step into the rotation. Baek wasn’t as good as his 3.67 ERA suggests after his call up from Tacoma last fall, Tristan Cockcroft should maybe look at his home run and strikeout numbers before declaring him a suitable replacement for Jeff Weaver.

From the Commissioner’s office: I’ve been asked by King Selig to take it easy on ole Bavasi for the next few paragraphs. Don’t worry, I’m not selling out.

I like the Mariners’ outfield. Raul Ibanez was very good again last season, if not providing good defense he complemented the other hitters in the lineup to the tune of 123 RBI. He loves hitting at lefty-friendly Safeco, his OPS is 120 points higher, but still can’t figure out LHP. It would make a lot of sense to have a capable right handed hitting fourth outfielder to spell Raul against LHP, unfortunately none of those words describe Jeremy Reed. Some of the best moves are the ones you never make, eh Theo? RHH Adam Jones might be up by midseason if Reed tanks again.

The addition of Jose Guillen moves Ichiro to center. Look for a number of frozen ropes from the gap in right to third base with these two guys fighting over doubles. Nobody has tremendous range, so balls will get down, but they’ll make up for it with obscene assist numbers. Guillen will provide nice value, I don’t care if he’s a bad clubhouse guy and has played on 7 teams since 2001. There’s no way he repeats his legendary 23 bombs/21 doubles in 315 at-bats, but a one-year $5.5m deal isn’t terrible. Ichiro is in his walk year, but an improvement is unlikely just because he’s set the bar so high. His 2004 is one of the greatest seasons of this decade, so I’d expect somewhere between last year’s .370/.416 and that .414/.455. He’s never hit for power in the states like he did in Japan, maybe his looming free agency will inspire him to hit the weights. Truly a one of a kind player, no one else gets on base with such frequency without displaying much patience at the plate.

Poor fielding second basemen suddenly deserve jobs as designated hitters? Jose Vidro has hit a total of 14 home runs over the last 2 seasons so he’s not exactly suited for cleanup, but that’s where he’s penciled in as of today. His value is probably halved or worse when he’s moved out of position. I find it very hard to believe that an offensive output comparable to Vidro’s couldn’t be found in the scrap heap of some roster if position isn’t a factor. Jose Lopez is no wizard out there either, PECOTA says he cost the team 18(!) runs last year on defense, so this roster is handcuffed by two poor fielding second basemen, both of whom are middle of the pack offensively. Give this GM a raise.

That deep left field gap in Safeco is a graveyard for Richie Sexson homers. He hits to all fields, but loves to unleash his long, slow swing and pull the ball into the gap in left. He’s just 32 and will produce up to his career averages, but don’t expect any more 45 homer campaigns when he plays 82 in Safeco.

The M’s are going to pay quite a bit for each win in 2007; there are a lot of overpaid bums enjoying the laid back lifestyle in the Pacific northwest. Ichiro’s pending contract negotiations will be a season long distraction as this team determines its direction and I’m very interested in how these talks play out. They have clearly built a fan base around him and their owner is Japanese so they have a vested interest in him, but the way money has been thrown around the last two offseasons might make them pause before a nine-figure deal. As much as I’d like to watch him in Boston, I can’t see him anywhere but in a Mariner’s uni. They’ll get it done.

EDIT: I just realized I forgot to include my record prediction.

Projected finish: 75-87

Comments (1)

By Zach, 3/15/2007 2:38 pm

2006: 96-66, 1st in AL Central, swept by Oakland Athletics in LDS

Projected Lineup
2B Luis Castillo (B)
3B Nick Punto (B)
C Joe Mauer (L)
RF Michael Cuddyer (R)
1B Justin Morneau (L)
CF Torii Hunter (L)
LF Rondell White (R)
DH Jason Kubel (L)
SS Jason Bartlett (R)

Projected Rotation
LHP Johan Santana
RHP Boof Bonser
RHP Carlos Silva
RHP Ramon Ortiz
RHP Matt Garza

Closer
RHP Joe Nathan

“Contraction is coming. There will be at least two fewer teams in the major leagues next year. Is it the answer to all the ails baseball? Absolutely not. Is it a proper step in attempting to restructure the economic foundation of the greatest game in the world? Absolutely.”
- Karl Ravech, February 8, 2002

If Bud got his wish back in 2001, maybe Justin Morneau would be be wearing a B on his cap instead of the interlocking TC.  Then again, maybe Joe Mauer would work in the Bronx.  The lowly Twins of eight straight sub-.500 finishes were being circled by the vultures known as the Major League Baseball attorneys, destined for the guillotine, or so King Selig would like us (and the Players’ Association) to believe.  Well Bud, your “competitive imbalance” and “economic crisis” have changed quite a bit since then.  Les Expos Neauvoux are now drawing on the wealth of Washington and the Twins stadium deal will go through, eventually.  Owner Carl Pohlad has expressed a commitment to the Twin Cities, reaching deeper into his pockets to make the stadium deal work than he’s put into the payroll in years.  Across the board, owners are making record profits and salaries have skyrocketed.

Every team has a flaw.  In Minnesota, it’s a thin rotation in which two young pitchers are expected to improve.  While the lineup will come close to their 801 runs scored last year, the pitching staff will undoubtedly surrender more than 683.  The loss of wunderkid Fransisco Liriano will be felt to the core.  Carlos Silva must return to his 71/9 K/BB form of 2005 for the Twinkies to contend in 2007.

I still chuckle every time I hear “Boof Bonser.“  In my mind he’s some twisted Biff Tannen/Cliff Claven doppleganger.  I hope you realize there is no greater praise than being compared to those two American heroes; by the way, John Ratzenberger is on the new season of “Dancing with the Stars.”  I think I’ll go tango with my mailman to show my support.  The Pohlad grandkids are rooting for Boof to catch Marty McFly this time around, hoverboard and all.  Two-plus years in AAA?  An 18 start tryout on a team that didn’t care if you failed?  It’s put-up or shut-up time Biff, I mean…Boof.  Really though, he was pretty damn good last year, a 4.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are worth a “Good job, Rook, now carry my luggage and put on that tutu.”  If not a “thank you” or “nice legs” afterwards.

What happened to you, L’il Pedro?  You used to scare my socks off when I saw you in the Pitching Probables against Frank Castillo.  It certainly didn’t look like you were juicin’, you couldn’t have been more than 165 back in 2002.  You’ve bounced from Cincinatti to Les Expos Neauvoux and now you’ve landed in the Hefty (TM) bag.  An ERA around 5.00 is approximately the upper boundary on success from Rrrrrramon Ortiz.  P.S. I keep rolling my rrrr’s like a latino porn star and inadvertently gleeking all over my keyboard. Try it, I’m sure the intern in the cube next to you will think its totally sexy.

It turns out that parts of California are NOT on the beach.  I know, I was floored as well.  I was ready to launch into a tirade about how lucky Matt Garza was for sailing through a few years at Fresno State, striking out over-matched opponents and hangin’ out on the beach with a bevy of buxom beauties, but there are no beaches in Fresno according to Google Maps.  Well, at least he’s got all that talent to fall back on.  The 2005 top draft pick has been nothing but successful since joining the professional ranks, I only question his ability to increase his innings over a long schedule.  Thankfully, the Twins organization has been historically adept at keeping young starters healthy (save Liriano).  If he continues on the same trend he’ll be no worse than the third best pitcher on this team.

Everyone’s favorite rowdy Aruban, Sidney Ponson, will be there to eat some innings in the event of injury.  Scott Baker also provides some depth, and wasn’t as bad as his 6.37 ERA suggests.  His April 14th start against the Yankees is evidence enough of his ability.  Another hot prospect, Glen Perkins, is waiting in the wings.

So, the Radke era is over.  (Tear.)  He was a bastion of consistency, unfortunately he wasn’t consistently excellent.  The Twins have successfully reloaded with young starters, but there won’t be time for development in a strong and balanced division.  Last year the offense underwent a similar transition.  No longer is Torii Hunter the centerpiece of the lineup, my MVP, Joe Mauer, and his sidekick Justin Morneau emerged to no one’s surprise as elite hitters.  I’m confident that Mauer will be similarly good, if not win another batting title, but I have my doubts about More-No.  For all the praise heaped on young Joe, little is uttered about Justin.  My hesitance to proclaim him the next Todd Helton is based on instinct more than reason, everything about his numbers suggests continued success.

From the “holy shit, I didn’t see that coming” department we’re joined by Michael Cuddyer.  He doubled his previous best home run and RBI totals, which is no doubt remarkable, but his 130 Ks don’t bode well.  He walked a fair amount (62), but I hate swings and misses nearly as much as I hate the NCAA selection committee right now.  This team is very left-handed, they need a guy like Cuddyer to produce for everything to jive.  No pressure, kid.  Cut down those Ks and we’ll talk.

The top of the lineup did its job reasonably well last year, but regression should be expected.  Luis Castillo is no spring chicken, he’ll be 32 by the end of the season, and his talent for getting from point A to point B faster than the average player will wane with every step.  He’s never been a five tool guy, but he’s a patient hitter (3.98 P/PA) and usually provides solid defense.  Nick Punto is a Gardenhire favorite, but also lacks any semblance of power.  He’s slotted for the two hole, but he’s a bottom of the barrel corner infielder.  His range is adequate for second base and he has experience there, so look for him to take over for Castillo in 2008.  I can definitely see Mike Lowell in a Twins uni next year.

Outfield defensive skill is very difficult to measure, and perception (usually of centerfielders) is often skewed by what I like to call The Griffey Effect.  I know you remember when Ken Griffey Jr. was basically the co-host of Sportscenter, making catches over the Kingdome wall nightly like it was old hat.  People like myself saw this and drew the conclusion that he was a fantastic defensive CF.  Well, obviously a player that has a wall just high enough to jump over in his home stadium will be better at making those catches, have more chances to do it, and therefore save a few more home runs.  I’m not saying Griffey is a poor centerfielder, but fans and experts alike jumped to the conclusion that he was the best based on a bad sample.  Torii Hunter is another beneficiary of the Griffey Effect.  It’s his walk year, so he should be in money-making shape.

The left field situation is shaping up to be a battle.  Incumbent Rondell White is still making a go of it, but he’s got  old friend Lew Ford, Jason Tyner, and another Gardenhire favorite in Josh “Broccoli” Rabe contending for the job.  DH Jason Kubel might get some time there as well.  Matthew LeCroy is back in Minny after a quick jaunt to our nation’s capitol, look for him spelling Kubel at DH against tough lefties.  Let’s hope, for everyone’s sake, he doesn’t get any time behind the plate.  If you’ve forgotten there was an ugly incident that involved a few dozen passed balls one fateful afternoon last summer.

Jason Bartlett is the shortstop by default, but Red Sox Rule 5 pick Alejandro Machado might see some time.  Gardenhire has said the Punto won’t be used at short, but I don’t exactly understand why.  Veteran Jeff Cirillo will be a pinch hitter and utility infielder.

The Twins had the best bullpen in baseball last year.  After Joe Nathan they were Jesse Crain (3.52 ERA), Dennys Reyes (0.89!), Matt Guerrier (3.36), and Juan Rincon (2.91).  I know ERA is a poor judge of a reliever’s ability, but when a bullpen has five guys under 3.52 something is working.

Brian Sabean and his masterful acquisition of A.J. Pierzynski has laid the groundwork for a bright future in Minnesota.  This season will be moderately frustrating, but after some of the fat is trimmed next offseason, Liriano comes back strong, and the kids get another year of seasoning the Twins are poised to contend for years to come.  There’s also some dude named Johan Santana.

Prediction: 85-77

Comments (3)

By Zach, 3/12/2007 7:59 am

2006: 62-100, 5th in AL Central

Lineup
CF David DeJesus (L)
2B Mark Grudzielanek (R)
RF Mark Teahen (L)
DH Mike Sweeney (R)
1B Ryan Shealy (R)
3B Alex Gordon (L)
LF Emil Brown (R)
C Jason LaRue (R)
SS Angel Berroa (R)

Rotation
RHP Gil Meche
LHP Odalis Perez
RHP Luke Hudson
LHP Jorge de la Rosa
RHP Zack Greinke
Closer
Octavio Dotel

In continuation of the “soft stuff in the middle” phase of the Dewey’s House previews, I present your 2007 Kansas City Royals!

Over the last three seasons the Royals have allowed more than 905 runs and scored less than 757, which has translated to a pitiful best of 100 losses. Since winning 83 in 2003 there has been little joy on the banks of the Missouri River, with Mike Sweeney the biggest loser in this disaster. After making it clear during 2003 contract negotiations that he would remain loyal as long as the Royals were committed to winning, his stipulation of a .500 finish in 2003 locked him into the final three years of the deal. He should have been more aggressive in his winning demands, since then he has languished on a miserable team, watching his prime years slip away due to injury.

In five of the six major team pitching categories, the Royals were dead last in the league in 2006. If you’re curious, they managed 12th place in saves. It would be too easy to recap the things that went wrong in 2006, and after all, this is a preview not a review. In the great words of the Bart and Lisa’s overlord Kang “We must move forward… not backwards, not to the side, not forwards, but always whirling, whirling, whirling towards freedom” (Treehouse of Horror VII). I’ll do us all a favor and move on.

Hope rests in the talent of third basemen Alex Gordon. The second overall pick in the 2005 draft tore through the system like his pants were on fire, tossing up a AA 1.015 OPS and stealing 22 of 25 bases in 2006. He’s had a bit of a sore shoulder this spring after diving for a ball, but should be out no more than a week. Rarely does a young player move a team’s best hitter out of position, but Buddy Bell has said that Gordon will push Mark Teahen to the outfield. Teahen made a vast improvement over his poor effort in 2005, but I’d say he played to the height of his ability last year. That’s not to say he’ll be a liability either in the field or at the plate, everyone should be happy with a WARP around 5.5. He’s athletic and has the arm for right field; his transition should be a smooth one.

David DeJesus and Ryan Shealy round out possibly the AL’s most talented group of young players that will be opening day starters. If not a perfect lead off hitter, DeJesus gets on base at a good clip (.364) and runs well. He’s not a stolen base threat, with a career high of eight (with 11 caught stealing). I’ve always enjoyed watching DeJesus play, and it’s not because of his movie-star good looks. Shealy looks and swings a little like Travis Hafner and is destined to end up a designated hitter once Mike Sweeney bolts town after this season, opening up 1B for prospect Justin Huber. The oft-injured Sweeney has missed at least 40 games over the last 4 seasons so he’ll need to remain healthy this year if he hopes to get a multi-year deal after 2007. He’s a young 33 so breaking the 30 home run barrier for the first time in his career isn’t out of the question. I wouldn’t expect anything approaching his 2000 total of 144 RBIs, but he’ll once again be the centerpiece of the KC lineup.

I don’t know much about Esteban German’s defense at 2B, but it must be pretty awful if they chose to resign aging Mark Grudzielanek instead of giving German and his .422 OBP the job. Third base is crowded and Reggie Sanders has the fourth OF spot, so German will be the first guy off the bench in the infield. I put Emil Brown slightly ahead of Sanders for the starting job in left based mostly on youth over age, but it could easily be the opposite.

The recipient of the inaugural Dewey’s House Worst Regular of the Year award is Angel Berroa. He managed to finish last in the league in both OBP and SLG, which miraculously translates to a last place finish in OPS as well. Somehow his OPS+ is still 48; that’s gotta be a bug in the formula. I think we should rename the DHWROY simply, the Berroa, but I can’t start making decrees just yet. His defense was bad, and his offense could be replaced by anyone not named Tony Womack. The situation at short has moved from an Orange Alert to firmly Red, and it doesn’t get much better from here. Angel Sanchez is the heir apparent, but evidently his power stroke compares more favorably to your sister’s than to Alex Gordon’s. German should be worth a look at short, but that makes way too much sense.

The end of the lineup is easily the worst in the league. Jason LaRue and Berroa’s OPS+ is a respectable 113, when added together. John Buck will be in the mix behind the plate as well, but was only slightly less terrible than LaRue last year.

In one of the most confusing and shortsighted signings of this offseason, Dayton Moore threw $55 million at Gil Meche for league average performance. I wish I could get my salary tripled for being completely average, I think I’ll bring up the case of Gil Meche during my next performance review. For what it’s worth, he’s the “ace,” maybe he’ll find his new title inspirational.

If you’re a chick (doubtful) and you’re ever on plane with Odalis Perez (also highly unlikely) DON’T give him your phone number. There is a story behind that, but maybe Mrs. Odalis reads Dewey’s House and I wouldn’t want to be responsible for any marital difficulties. Let’s just leave it at that. In terms of performance, Odalis also might be league average. When your top two starters have a “solid shot” at an average performance you might want to reevaluate your system.

My sleeper for a breakout season on this squad is Luke Hudson. He’s done a great job at preventing home runs, averaging half a homer every nine innings last year. If he can continue to get his share of groundball outs and keep the ball in the park his .315 BABIP should go down, along with his ERA. The defense (Berroa) behind him has probably hurt him significantly in the past.

The two spots at the end of the rotation are still unclear, but it will be some combination of Zack Grienke, Jorge de la Rosa, Brian Bannister, and eventually 2006 number one overall pick Luke Hochevar. The first two guys on that list are the favorites, as they have the most major league experience, but it will be a trial by fire for the young guys. In KC, even the major league squad is a development team.

After last year’s guy-that-pitched-at-the-end-of-games (I hesitate to call anyone with a S/BS ratio of 18/12 a closer) Ambiorix Burgos was shipped to the Mets for Bannister, Dayton Moore addressed the need in the form of Octavio Dotel. I guess Dotel has a decent chance of coming back, but he certainly won’t be helped by the abuse his arm took with other organizations. Still, it was an uncharacteristically good move at $5 million with valuable bonuses. Dotel will get $200,000 for each five games finished after 15. I’d agree that 20 saves are worth $200k more than 15, and his base salary is right in Joel Pineiro’s tax bracket. After Dotel, Joel Peralta, David Riske, Todd Wellemeyer, and Ken Ray should get the majority of the innings in roughly that order.

The house of David Glass has been on shaky ground lately and this season’s additions won’t prevent the coming disaster. If Hochevar develops as scheduled and Billy Butler and Mitch Maier stay healthy and on track the Royals will have a lot to show for those 100 loss seasons and high draft picks. Right now, everybody’s 0-0, so there’s a little hope. Take solace in the fact that you aren’t the worst team in the league, yet.

Prediction: 65-97

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 3/11/2007 6:43 pm

Projected Lineup:
SS Hanley Ramirez
2B Dan Uggla
3B Miguel Cabrera
LF Josh Willingham
1B Mike Jacobs
RF Jeremy Hermida
C Miguel Olivo
CF Alex Sanchez

Projected Rotation:
Dontrelle Willis
Scott Olsen
Anibal Sanchez
Ricky Nolasco
Yusmeiro Petit

Projected Closer:
Henry Owens

Outlook:
It just doesn’t seem fair, does it? 

The Marlins, an expansion team with ugly uniforms and approximately 17 fans, come into the league in 1993, and 4 years later, they are World Champions.  6 years after that, they are World Champions again.  They have seen several Future Hall-of-Famers, 4 no-hitters, 22 playoff wins, and 33 All-Stars.  And then, just when we think they blew the team up, just when we think they will be rebuilding with dozens of green, unprepared rookies and Rule 5 Draft fodder, they shock the baseball world by hanging in the NL Wildcard race into autumn.

And, of course, adding insult to injury for us Sox fans, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez both have outstanding rookie campaigns, while Josh Beckett is mediocre in his AL debut.  

The Fish actually should have won more games than they did in 2006, as their Pythagorean record was 80-82.  Looking ahead to 2007, there is good news, and there is bad news.  The good news is that they will be returning almost every key player from 2006, most of whom are young and improving.  The bad news is that one of their best pitchers, 23-year-old RHP Josh Johnson, is expected to miss 2 months with an arm injury.  In light of this, Florida still has a decent rotation at their disposal.  The D-Train, Dontrelle Willis, provides the rotation with a durable anchor, although he is slightly inconsistent.  His 4 year career can be divided into 2 parts: superb Dontrelle, and good Dontrelle.  Given his pedestrian strikeout rate, would say the real Dontrelle is closer to the 2006 version (a durable above-average pitcher) than the 2005 version (a lights-out ace).  Young LHP Scott Olsen has the impressive peripheral stats that indicate a possible future ace.  In his rookie year, after making the jump from AA (like several of these lucky…err…talented bastards), Olsen shined with 166 Ks in 180 innings.  His minor league track record suggests this was no fluke, as he average well over a K per inning before getting the call.  He has excellent stuff and is seemingly durable.  Look for Olsen to take ownership of this rotation over the next few years. 

Anibal Sanchez, of course, brought joy to Miami (and bitterness to Boston) with a no-hitter in September, along with a bunch of other decent performances, posting a 152 ERA+ in his rookie season.  One caveat to note: his stellar 2006 performance was over a half-season.  NL hitters are still getting used to our old Portland Sea Dog friend, and his performances should be expected to normalize a bit in 2007.  I’m not saying he won’t be good, I think he will be a decent pitcher.  Just don’t expect a right-handed version of Johan Santana.  His stuff isn’t that good.  24-year-old Ricky Nolasco was the team’s 5^th starter for the majority of 2006, and actually was a closer candidate heading into spring training.  However, the injury to Josh Johnson forces Nolasco back into the rotation.  Ricky looks to improve upon a year in which he was the weak link of the rotation, giving up a 4.82 ERA and having the highest HR rate on the staff. 

The fifth starter in the rotation has yet to be determined, and the battle is among a handful of guys.  A few weeks ago, I would have assumed Sergio Mitre to be the front runner for the gig, but he is again having issues with injuries.  Yusmeiro Petit, the former Met prospect, was recently very impressive against a powerful Red Sox lineup in spring training. With Mitre hurt, Petit look to have as good of a chance as any of the other candidates.  Wes Obermueller, Jose Garcia, and Chris George round out the competition for the final rotation slot. 

While the Marlins rotation seems young and impressive, the bullpen is just plain young.
With Nolasco moving back to the rotation, the closing duties seemed to be bestowed upon 24-year-old LHP Taylor Tankersley.  Taylor impressed in his MLB debut, with a 2.85 ERA and 46 Ks over 41 innings.  However, Tankersley is reportedly out until mid-April with shoulder inflammation.  This would make rookie Henry Owens, with only 4 career innings pitched at the MLB level (and a career 9.00 ERA) the likely closer to start the year.  Why is he the likely closer, do you ask?  Well, in AA last season, his averaged 16.65 Ks per 9 innings.  That is not a typo.  16.65 Ks per 9 innings.  It will be very interesting to see what this guy can do in the National League.  RHP Matt Lindstrom, who has yet to throw a pitch above AA, is reportedly a dark horse candidate for the closer’s job.  Word on the street is that the righty boasts a 100 MPH fastball and a slider to compliment the heat,  but I can’t conceivably see him winning the role over Owens , not without some kind of injury.

Behind the closer candidates is 24-year-old lefty Reynel Pinto, who was very impressive in a brief sample last season, RHP Kevin Gregg, a “veteran” compared to these other guys (he’s been around for 4 years, and RHP Randy Messenger.

We now move onto what is possibly the most promising young infield in the major leagues, especially the left side.  Franchise player Miguel Cabrera is coming of another great season in which he hit .339/.430/.568, and played solid 3B defense (24 FRAR).  Given his age and his offensive trends, this guy could possibly emerge as baseball’s best player in 2007 (he’s already on the short list with Pujols and A-Rod).  At shortstop is last year’s unlikely Rookie of the Year, old friend Hanley Ramirez.  Should Red Sox fans be upset about this? No.  Hanley and Beckett are now two completely independent entities, and his success has nothing to do with Boston (unless, of course, the Sox happen to be playing Florida).  Anyway, a lot of folks really bemoaned this deal with some 20/20 hindsight, but let me remind all of you: nobody expected Hanley to be this good.  In 2005, in AA, Hanley’s line was this: .271/.335/.385.  Next year, in the major leagues, he improves to .292/.353/.480?  I can’t really fault the Sox for this; it just seems like Hanley had a bit of a fluke season.  Expect a regression for Hanley, with numbers closer to that Portland line.  Speaking of fluke seasons, Dan Uggla etched his name into the records of great Rule 5 picks such as Johan Santana and Roberto Clemente.  The second baseman made the All-Star team and finished third in Rookie of the Year voting, while bashing 27 HRs and slugging .480.  Like his double play partner, expect a slight deflation of what appear to be some overly inflated power numbers.  I would not be surprised to see Mike Jacobs out-produce both Uggla and Ramirez in 2007.  The 26-year-old has some genuine power, with a career slugging percentage of .515.  Backing up the infielders will be Aaron Boone (yes, he’s in Florida now…that pick-up basketball game was more damaging that Chris Webber’s TO in the Final Four) and Alfredo Amezaga.

While the Florida infield has some young, proven talent, the outfield picture is a bit cloudier.  Jeremy Hermida, who was expected to be one of the best rookies in the 2006 class, is looking to improve upon what should probably be called a disappointing season.  He hasn’t lit any fires in spring training, going 0-14 thus far, but we’ll wait until April to pass judgment on the kid. Converted catcher Josh Willingham returns to LF after sharing the team lead in homers with Cabrera.  He’s still learning the ropes in the outfield, as his defense I 2006 was sub-par (-11 FRAR), but he is a legitimate power bat, and will provide some much-needed pop.

Their choices in CF are not exactly appetizing.  The #1 contender, Alex Sanchez, is best known for being the first guy suspended from the revamped MLB steroid policy.  Sanchez did play well in 2005 and in the minors in 2006, and could probably outplay last year’s CF, Reggie Abercrombie.  Abercrombie posted a dismal line of .212/.271/.333 in 2006, which isn’t any better than Cody Ross: .212/.284/.396, or Joe Borchard:  .230/.322/.400.  Eric Reed (.098/.178/.098) is also an option (yikes).  Unless a move is made, the Fish could very well be looking at a festering hole in the middle of their 2007 outfield.  Miguel Olivo and Matt Treanor will handle the catching duties.  Oliva does have some pop, and is a decent defensive catcher, but Treanor does not bring much to the table on either side of the ball. 

While the Marlins have a very promising young lineup, and the layperson might look at this and think: “Gosh, these guys are all going to get better”, I can’t help but predict a massive regression to the mean by Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, and to a lesser extent, Taylor Tankersley and Anibal Sanchez.  However, those regressions will likely be offset by improvement from the likes of Hermida, Olsen, possibly Willis, and (as scary as it is) Miguel Cabrera. 

Expect 3^rd place.

Projection: 79-83

Top 10 Prospects:
Chris Volstad, RHP
Taylor Tankersley, LHP
Sean West, LHP
Reynel Pinto, LHP
Henry Owens, RHP
Matt Lindstrom, RHP
Gaby Hernandez, RHP
Chris Coghlan, 3B
Jose Garcia, RHP
Aaron Thompson, LHP

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 3/8/2007 9:01 pm

2006 Record: 57-95, 5^th place NL Central

Projected Lineup:
3B Freddy Sanchez
CF Chris Duffy
LF Jason Bay
1B Adam LaRoche
RF Xavier Nady
2B Jose Castillo
C Ronnie Paulino
SS Jack Wilson

Projected Rotation:
Ian Snell
Zach Duke
Paul Maholm
Tom Gorzelanny
Tony Armas

Closer:
Salamon Torres?

Outlook:
We here at Dewey’s House encountered a bit of a dilemma while preparing for the upcoming season.  We had some difficulty deciding which of us should be rewarded with the task of previewing the 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates.  So, like any group of sophisticated gentlemen, we decided to settle it the proper way: via a Royal Rumble.  You know, three men enter the ring, one man leaves? 

Well, I was the first man tossed out of the ring.  So, without further ado, your 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates!

We understand the gloom in Pittsburgh, to an extent.  I see somewhat of a parallel to our Boston Celtics franchise: an historic, once-proud organization currently stuck in a quagmire of failure, due mostly to front-office ineptitude.  The last time the Pirates had a winning season, Tim Wakefield was a brash 25-year-old rookie starter (just to put things in perspective).

The Bucs did cause quite a stir recently by making the first significant trade of 2007 with the Atlanta Braves.  Now, when we hear that Dave Littlefield just consummated a trade with John Schuerholz, we will tend to assume that it’s some sort of package involving Jason Bay for Ryan Langerhans.   However, that wasn’t the case.  The Pirates sent closer Mike Gonzales and minor league shortstop Brent Lillibridge to Atlanta, for 27-year-old slugger Adam LaRoche.  2006 was a breakout year for LaRoche, who hit .285/.354/.561 with 32 HRs in 492 at-bats while playing first base for Atlanta.  In Pittsburgh, he takes over a position held primarily by Sean Casey (before he was traded) and Xavier Nady.  LaRoche brings some much needed pop to a Pirates lineup that was seriously devoid of it: Pittsburgh was dead last in the NL in slugging percentage, home-runs, and runs scored in 2006.  If LaRoche comes close to his 2006 production, his bat will be a significant improvement over the likes of Jeromy Burnitz and Jose Bautista (Nady will move to RF, Bautista will have a reduced role).

The main question is: do the Pirates need LaRoche more than they needed Mike Gonzales?  They will be involved in more than a few close games, and Gonzales was clearly the only shut-down swing-and-miss arm in an otherwise serviceable bullpen. He will likely be replaced by the likes of Damaso Marte or Salamon Torres, who can both hold their own in the late innings, but neither are dominant. Will the loss of Gonzales’ 10.67 K/9 be worth the acquisition of LaRoche’s .915 OPS at first base?  Dave Littlefield has gambled that it will.

If there is one thing that should stop the Steel City fans from weeping in their yellow towels for 5 minutes, it is the potential of a young, interesting starting rotation.  They may not have anybody in the King Felix/Verlander stratosphere, but they do have a decent 25-and-under quartet, four guys who are healthy, can keep the team in the ballgame, and should improve on their 2006 performances.

The youngest of the group, Zack Duke, could be the best starter in the rotation at this point. The left-hander set the NL afire with a mid-season 2005 debut, going 8-2 with a 1.82 ERA, and finishing 5^th in the Rookie of the Year voting.  His 2006 performance was much more pedestrian, starting 34 games with a 4.47 ERA (100 ERA+, “average”, in other words).  He has shown remarkable durability, good control, and he keeps the ball in the ballpark (career 0.6 HR/9).  He does have a bit more trouble with right-handed hitters, but if he refines his changeup, he’ll become a more complete pitcher.  Duke will never be a swing-and-miss guy, he’ll need to rely on pitch location.  A performance somewhere in between 2005 and 2006 should be expected.

This next guy, Ian Snell, is perhaps the exact opposite of Zach Duke.  A right-hander, Snell relies on his mid-90’s fastball and hard curve, and fanned over 8 batters per game in 2006, leading the team in strikeouts.  He has difficulty facing left-handed hitters, he’ll occasionally have control problems, and has trouble with the long ball (1.40 HR/9).  Snell also made a bit of a stir when he admitted his dislike for the city of Pittsburgh on ESPN radio in October.  He then went straight to Bill Cowher’s house and shaved off the coach’s sacred mustache while he slept.  If Snell can improve his command against lefties (and fire Derek Bell as his PR consultant), he could easily emerge as the staff ace, given his overpowering stuff.  Reports indicate that he will indeed start on Opening Day.

Paul Maholm, a big lefty who was the 8^th overall pick in the 2003 draft, is more in the mold of Duke: a pitcher who will need to rely on impeccable command to succeed in the majors.  He does have an arsenal of four pitches, but his fastball is usually in the high 80’s.  He hasn’t been able to fool right-handed hitters as of yet; they hit .313 of Paul in 2006, compared to the paltry .233 from left-handers.  Like the two pitchers above, Maholm still has time to work on his off-speed pitches and location, and hopefully reduce that nasty L/R split.  Despite being the most highly regarded pitcher of the four on draft day, Maholm now has perhaps the lowest ceiling of the group, and will likely end up in the bullpen if he can’t eventually figure out right-handed hitters.

The last, but not least (and maybe the most interesting) of the four is the guy who was drafted one round after Maholm: Tom Gorzelanny.  Although his name is not quite Dickensian, Gorzelanny became a household name with prospect enthusiasts in 2006 by plowing through AAA Indianapolis, and pitching well in 11 games for Pittsburgh.  He has a hard fastball and slider, and a changeup to compliment them.  While only allowing 3 HRs, he stuck out 40 in 60 innings in the majors, a strikeout rate of 6 per game, which should improve over a full season in 2007.  The one knock against Tom is stamina; he averaged less than 6 innings per start in 2006 between AAA and the NL.  Since the bullpen looks significantly weaker after trading away their best pitcher, the team will need Tom to go deeper in games.

The final rotation spot will go to newly acquired Tony Armas Jr.  The 28-year old right-hander had a lousy season in 2006, with an ERA over 5.00 while pitching in a renowned pitcher’s environment at RFK stadium.  Still, Armas is a solid favorite to win the final rotation spot, and will likely get only mild competition from the 6^th starter and likely long-man in the bullpen: Shawn Chacon.
 
We’ve already touched on Marte and Torres, the two likely candidates to win the closer role in Pittsburgh, now let’s see what else the bullpen has to offer.  The Pirates do have 2 promising young right-handed relievers in their organization, both just about ready to contribute to The Show: 23-year-old Matt Capps and 26-year-old Jonah Bayliss.  Capps was already a significant pitcher in the MLB pen last season (3.79 ERA in 81 innings), and could get some save opportunities if Torres sputters during the year.  Bayliss was dominant in AAA (58 innings, 37 hits, 67 Ks, 2.17 ERA) and should also be considered a dark horse to earn the closer’s duties.  LHP John Grabow is deadly against left-handed hitters, and will see a ton of high-leverage one-out situations in the later innings.  Former Milwaukee closer Danny Kolb will find himself in unfamiliar territory: he’ll be fighting for the final spot in the bullpen this spring.

On to the outfield.  All-Star and franchise player Jason Bay will return to his post in LF, after pounding out a .928 OPS and 50 VORP in 2006.  Bay is a jewel in this dark, cavernous coalmine of a lineup, a guy who does just about everything well (power, speed, defense, patience).  At age 28, don’t bet on him slowing down, especially since he’ll have a legitimate power threat behind him in LaRoche.  Look for him to represent the Yellow and Black in the Mid-Summer Classic once again.  If the Pirates win a few more games, he might even get some love in the MVP debates.

After Bay, there really isn’t much else in the outfield.  Chris Duffy is a speedy centerfielder who should be a lock for 30+ steals, but the scrappy Vermont native doesn’t bring much offense to the plate, and he isn’t exactly a Gold Glover.  Xavier Nady, slated to start in right field, should be a decent source of offense (expect an OPS around .800), but the converted 1^st baseman is a bit of a liability in the outfield.  Aside from versatile utilityman Jose Bautista, who can play just about any position, there will be a bit of a spring battle for the reverse outfield spot on this roster.  Former Oriole Luis Matos was invited to camp as a non-roster player, and has been impressive thus far in the Grapefruit League.  Matos had an abominable season in 2006, and will battle speedy returnee Nate McLouth.  Since both guys are viable defensive and pinch running options, and Matos hits from the right side of the plate while McLouth hits from the left, Jim Tracy may just decide to keep both players.  Jody Gerut, who continues to cement his place in history as the 21^st century Joe Charboneau, was recently cut from the team. 

In addition to LaRoche, third baseman Freddy Sanchez looks to give the Pirates a decent offensive corner infield combo.  Last season’s batting champion, 29, is currently suffering from a sprained knee, but he should be ready to go by Opening Day.  I wouldn’t count on him winning another batting title, but a batting average over .300 and OPS around .800 should be expected.  Nifty defender Jack Wilson, also 29, won’t embarrass himself at the plate these days, and second baseman Jose Castillo has a good amount of pop, and could shock the league with 25 homers.  37-year-old SS Jose Hernandez, he of the many strikeouts, is a long-shot to make the team.  In addition to backup 1B/C Ryan Doumit, the team will likely go with Humberto Cota to back up starting catcher Ronny Paulino.  Paulino brings a nice offensive element to the lineup, and could break out in 2006, similar to the likes of Brian McCann and Russ Martin.

The Pirates have endured a long-standing streak of futility, having not finished with a winning record since Season 2 of The Simpsons.  With a beautiful new stadium, the Bucs need to start winning some games to put this historic franchise on the path to redemption.  Perhaps 2007 will be a small step in that direction.  Or, perhaps I’m just overly optimistic, to the point of idiocy.

Prediction: 80-82

Top 10 Prospects
Andrew McCutchen, OF
Neil Walker, C/3B
Brad Lincoln, RHP
Todd Redmond, RHP
Shelby Ford, 3B
Brian Bixler, 2B
Mike Felix, LHP
Josh Sharpless, RHP
Yoslan Herrera, RHP
Jim Negrych, 2B

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By Jimmy, 3/7/2007 9:06 am

2006 Record: 88-74, 2^nd place AL West (Wildcard)

Projected Lineup:
CF Juan Pierre
SS Rafael Furcal
1B Nomar Garciaparra
2B Jeff Kent
LF Luis Gonzalez
RF Andre Ethier
3B Wilson Betemit
C Russell Martin

Projected Rotation:
Jason Schmidt
Derek Lowe
Brad Penny
Randy Wolf
Chad Billingsley

Projected Closer:
Takashi Saito

Outlook:
There are several names of people throughout history which will make a man’s veins boil like geothermal vents.  When spoken, these names evoke intense feelings of anger and hatred, molten daggers that pierce our hearts like skewers through a pig. 

Just a few examples:  Osama-Bin Laden.  Justin Timberlake.  Ho Chi-Min.  Rosie O’Donnell.  Derek Jeter.  On one fateful October night in 2003, another person became immortalized in the Hall of The Hated: manager Grady Little.

In light of this, GM Ned Coletti’s hiring of Little to pilot the 2006 Dodgers caused quite a stir around these parts.  In full disclosure, I personally didn’t get too fired up over Grady, I always thought he took an unfair brunt of blame for the 8^th inning debacle in New York.  But, even I was surprised at LA’s decision, with several other qualified managerial candidates still available.  Still, Little did an adequate job (with a few hiccups, of course) and piloted a team with several of his ex-Red Sox to the playoffs last season.

This year, the Dodgers will have similar strengths and weaknesses to their cross-town Angel cousins: lots of pitching, but not a whole lot of offense to compliment the promising rotation.

Gone from LA is outfielder JD Drew.  A quick note on Drew: from listening to some media reports and casual fan rantings, you would think this guy was spending his free time in LA running over babies with his lawnmower.  The lesson here: don’t listen to most media reports and casual fan rantings.  Say what you want about Drew: his .300+ EqA will be missed from this lineup.  Some other notable departures: Bill Mueller, Kenny Lofton, Julio Lugo, Eric Gagne, Greg Maddux, and Toby Hall.  While this may seem like a huge exodus of veteran talent, LA has been very busy in the off-season, acquiring pieces to their 2007 puzzle.

The biggest piece of all is front-line starter Jason Schmidt.  One of the biggest bounties from the volatile 2007 free agent market, the 34-year-old brings a durable power arm to a rotation which was already considered one of the strongest in the league.  Schmidt was 11-9 last year, but don’t let the record mislead you: he was one of the best starters in the league, with 213 innings pitched and an ERA+ of 125.  After Schmidt, we find a familiar face: fun-loving Derek Lowe.  Lowe has found a bit of rejuvenation is the hot California sun.  No, I’m not talking about his sexual escapades with sports anchorwomen.  I’m talking about his sinker grounding hitters to the tune of a 3.63 ERA in his Dodgers tenure.  Lowe has averaged 209 innings per year in his 5 seasons as a starter, and he can be counted on to maintain consistency is this favorable environment.  Expect a season similar to his last 2 in LA.  Last season’s All-Star Game starter Brad Penny hopes to accomplish a task which tends to elude him: staying healthy.  While the two guys above him are studies in the art of durability, Penny has only averaged 167 innings in the past 5 seasons.  The right-hander will be 29 this year, and is reportedly healthy, so another All-Star caliber campaign is not out of the realm of possibilities.  However, there have been grumblings of Penny being a possible closer candidate, if the situation warrants such a change later in the season.  For now, pencil him into the rotation.

Randy Wolf is one of my favorite off-season acquisitions; someone I wished the Red Sox made a play for this winter.  The lefty suffered an injury-plagued 2006, and was acquired on a 1-year, 8 million dollar contract by Ned Coletti.  Considering some of the other money given to free-agent pitchers this season (I’m looking at you, Mr. Meche), this 1 year contract could turn out to be a steal, if Wolf manages to stay off the DL.  Rearing up the rotation is one of the most promising young pitchers in baseball, Chad Billingsley.  Chad was impressive in his 90 inning rookie season last year, but did have some frightening control issues (a 1/1 K/BB ratio).  Look for that ratio to improve, and Chad to perform as one of the better 5^th starters in the league, capping of what is arguably the best rotation in the National League. 

The bullpen in LA is also looking strong, anchored by Japanese import Takashi Saito.  Saito filled in nicely for injured closer Eric Gagne in 2006, saving 24 games and striking out 107 batters in 78 innings.  Saito has been hampered by a calf strain this spring, but a young gun who is ready to step into a crucial bullpen role in Jonathan Broxton.  Like Saito, Broxton was overpowering in his MLB debut in 2006, fanning 97 batters in 76 innings.  A primary lefty in the bullpen will likely be Hong-Chih Kuo, a power pitcher who has an even split against hitters from both sides of the plate.  The bulk of LOOGY situations will likely go to veteran lefty Joe Beimel, who held left-handed batters to a line of .234/.270/.351 last season.  Mark Hendrickson has been used almost exclusively as a starter for his long career (primarily in Tampa Bay – take that for what it’s worth), but that looks like it will change in Los Angeles in 2007, as the starting rotation is booked solid.  Look for either Hendrickson or Kuo to see the long relief duties and the occasional spot start.  Veteran right-hander Brett Tomko will likely get most of the mop-up duty.  He’s basically an average National League pitcher at this point, but when Brett Tomko is the weakest arm on your entire pitching staff, you are probably in decent shape.

Now we move onto the outfield, and this is where I get to do one of my favorite things: crapping all over a GM (I am a hollow, bitter, shell of a human being).  With the departure of Drew and Lofton, Ned Coletti needed a center-fielder.  What he could have done was to elevate prospect Matt Kemp into the position, thus putting a power bat into a lineup in need of some pop, and saving the franchise a few million clams.  Alas, Ned instead chose to pay Juan Pierre and his career .377 SLG% to come to town.  It’s not Pierre I have a problem with; he’s a decent little player, with strengths and weaknesses just like everyone else.  My beef is the amount Pierre was paid: $45,000,000, over 5 years.  For a 30-year-old player with absolutely no power (12 career homers), this amount is staggering.  Well, we’re all armchair GMs, so let’s see if Coletti can’t prove us wrong.

In left field will be veteran bopper Luis Gonzalez.  The hero of the 2001 World Series is a fraction of the player he once was in Arizona, but he still has some gap power, as he managed to smack 52 doubles last season.  Promising sophomore Andre Ethier looks to carry the momentum from his outstanding rookie season, where he hit .308/.365/.477 in 441 plate appearances.  Most projections would seem to indicate that he was playing a bit over his head in 2006, and will come down to earth a bit in 2007.  While that may be the case, expect Ethier to still provide some quality offense, while hopefully improving on his lackluster RF defense.

On to the infield, where the Dodgers boast one of the best offensive tandems in the league.  At first base stands Mia Hamm’s obedient husband, Nomar Garciaparra.  He is, of course, an injury risk, but as of now, he is healthy and happy in Vero Beach.  You know the story: as long as he’s in the lineup, he’ll probably be the best hitter on the team.  In the event that Nomar goes down, the Dodgers have young James Loney waiting in the wings.  Loney was extremely impressive in a brief trial last year (.901 OPS in 110 plate appearances), squelching most of the concerns about his ability to hit for power in the majors.  39-year-old Jeff Kent is winding down what should be a Hall of Fame career, and the motorcycling daredevil is still one of the better offensive second basemen in the league, as he will likely bat cleanup in this lineup. 

The speedy Rafael Furcal, who hopefully invested in one of those new cell phones that gives you a breathalyzer test when you speak into it, will provide excellent SS play both offensively and defensively, and give the Chavez Ravine fans their money’s worth.  Furcal has been bothered by a minor injury this spring, but should be fine by Opening Day. 

Former Atlanta prospect Wilson Betemit is finally going into Opening Day as a probably starter at 3B, but only because the Dodgers have no other option.  His 3B defense leaves much to be desired, and he’s basically average offensively, flashing occasional power while whiffing at an alarming rate.  Ramon Martinez (the infielder) will serve as the primary backup at 2B/SS, while Olmedo Saenz will vie for a roster spot as a backup corner infielder. 

Russell Martin returns to his post behind the plate, and heads into this season as one of the most promising young catchers in baseball, on a tier occupied with Atlanta’s Brian McCann.  The 24-year-old Canadian should be a solid bet to produce an .800 OPS with good defense and heads-up baserunning.  Backing up Martin is familiar veteran and former All-Star Mike Lieberthal, who will fill in nicely once a week, and provide quality pinch at-bats.

The Dodgers have certainly lost some offense in the hot stove season, and made a questionable acquisition to fill a hole in CF, but their pitching staff should be even better this year.  With a boatload of young, improving talent and a deep roster, Los Angeles appears primed to make a run at the division title. 

I’m not sure even Grady can stop them. 

Prediction: 91-71

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Andy LaRoche, 3B
2. James Loney, 1B
3. Scott Elbert, LHP
4. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
5. Chin-Lung Hu, SS
6. Blake DeWitt, 2B
7. Preston Mattingly, SS
8. Cory Dunlap, 1B
9. Jonathan Meloan, RHP
10. Tony Abreu, 2B

Comments (1)

By Zach, 3/6/2007 10:23 am

Last year: 88-74 1st in NL West, Lost to STL in LDS, 1-3

Projected Lineup
2B Marcus Giles (R)
RF Brian Giles (L)
1B Adrian Gonzalez (L)
CF Mike Cameron (R)
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (R)
C Josh Bard (S)
LF Terrmel Sledge (L)
SS Khalil Greene (R)

Projected Rotation
RHP Jake Peavy
RHP Chris Young
RHP Greg Maddux
RHP Clay Hensley
LHP David Wells

Closer
RHP Trevor Hoffman

The aptly named Padres are a baseball team from my father’s era. They’ve got solid starting pitching with a balance of wise veterans and talented youth, a deep bullpen anchored by a hard-nosed stopper of yesteryear, and a lineup full of holes. Their division no longer carries the “worst” moniker with its’ new pitching-heavy rosters and the Pads’ strength is suddenly common.

“Write me up a ticket and I’ll pay for it.” That hardly seems like disorderly conduct to me, but an Alabama airport cop’s manhood was challenged when Jake Peavy decided he was too important to bother with the parking lot for regular folks. First of all, I didn’t even know they have airports in Alabama. Secondly, I’ll give him a mulligan; millionaire celebrities shouldn’t be inconvenienced with such trivialities. Fire lane…HA! I laugh at your fire lane!

It’s difficult to judge his performance in 2006. His BAPIP for the last three years has been .307, .281, and .307; suggesting he’s been prone to solid contact. There’s little doubt his success was due to high K rates, and nothing in his peripheral stats suggests a dramatic jump in ERA like he experienced, so your guess is as good as mine. Maybe the Ks just didn’t come at the right time.

He’ll be better this year, but not approaching his 2004 numbers. His previous dominance looked pretty convincing and he still has the obscene K rates, but his bad luck on balls in play is a trend. At some point it’s no longer luck.

Baseball Prospectus compares Chris Young to Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan in the same sentence, albeit cautiously. If you hadn’t noticed, he’s 6’10”, so thank god B-P is there to drop that knowledge bomb. What would we do without you? They suggest his dominance should be attributed to the Petco Park dimensions, but did they fail to notice her ERA was more than two runs lower on the road? Oh, he’s very tall, but he was lucky last year (.232 BABIP). By the way, B-P only mentioned Ryan in comparing Young’s indifference to baserunners.

Rounding out the youngsters is Clay Hensley. I like this kid, and Petco helps him significantly. A groundball pitcher that’s capable of a strikeout when he needs it can have a long, valuable career in the middle of the rotation.

Grandpas Maddux and Wells won’t have much pressure in what is likely a swansong for at least one. Boomer has been threatening retirement for a few years and his one-year contract suggests this might be it. Maddux is guaranteed $6 million next year with a club option for an additional $5M. He’d be leaving a lot of cash on the table if he hangs it up, so look for Maddux in 2008. As far as performance, these two will each regress slightly due to age and are increasingly fragile. It’s all but guaranteed that one misses a chunk of starts.

The closer torch is about to be passed. Trevor Hoffman and arguably Billy Wagner and Mariano Rivera are all that’s remaining of the great generation of 90s closers. As the old guard fades away a few guys from the new generation will emerge, but this remains to be seen. Hoffman had another dominant season, but how long can they keep this up? It’s hard to imagine a guy like J.J. Putz putting up similar numbers for 15 years. Durability from such a taxing role may be a thing of the past.

There’s no way Cla Meredith repeats his 2006. Right? Right?! The kid with the funky delivery will be good against righties and should face very few lefties, but his most improbable performance last year was his best professional season by a mile. How many guys beat their minor league numbers in their rookie year? The continued success of the Scotts (Linebrink and Cassidy) will be increasingly important with some regression by Cla. Doug Brocail, Royce Ring and Heath Bell will probably round out the pen, and the other part of the Barfield/Kouzmanoff trade, Andrew Brown, will be there if someone gets hurt.

The offense was firmly in the bottom half of NL squads last year, and scoring hasn’t been made a priority in the off-season. Its nice that someone finally figured out seats are filled with Ws, not Rs, but the Pads may be a little one-dimensional to challenge anyone in the American League for a title. This team is built for Petco, take them away for a short series and they’ll falter. They won’t even get that far if the Dodgers and Giants remain healthy.

Minor league stud Kevin Kouzmanoff is at the top of my “players to watch” list after his acquisition from the Indians for Josh Barfield. Kevin Towers was wise to sell high on Barfield and I’m certain Josh was happy to leave Petco for Jacobs Field. While Kouz doesn’t fill their need for a leadoff hitter following the departure of Dave Roberts, his ceiling is somewhere between all-star and superstar.

In a cost cutting move by the Braves, Marcus Giles wasn’t offered a contract and has joined his brother in San Diego. Giles was regarded as one of the biggest busts of 2006, but in reality he wasn’t as bad as some believed. His average was ugly, but he got on base at a .341 clip and wasn’t far off his doubles and home run numbers of two years ago. The Braves were worried about further regression, but Giles will have a prominent role on the Padres. He’ll either hit leadoff or second if someone else proves capable. New manager Bud Black would like to make the lineup a little longer and Terrmel Sledge might be there by the end of spring training.

Still a threat to walk 100 times, Brian Giles isn’t ready to be led out to pasture. The Padres would love a renaissance from both Giles brothers, but they are counting on Brian performing above his 2006. PECOTA has him at a .394 OBP; I think the team would be very happy with a number in that neighborhood. He doesn’t have much protection in Adrian Gonzalez and Mike Cameron.

Gonzalez is a good player, but not a guy you build an offense around. His 2006 was the definition of a breakout season, but a sophomore slump wouldn’t surprise anyone. In a rare statistical anomaly, Cameron’s OPS went up while his BA fell last year. He still struck out 142 times; that’s a lot of swings and misses. Kouzmanoff could end up hitting cleanup by May, or replaced by Russell Branyan if things go in the opposite direction.

I need Josh Bard to suck. Look for me in the “irrational anger” support group twice a week if both of the chips they traded for the corpse of Doug Mirabelli continue to dominate. The upside of George Kottaras tempers my rage a bit, but he’s no lock. Someone tell me Bard came in to camp overweight. For my sanity, please Josh, mail it in this season just like I half-assed my Braves preview last week.

Web Gem mainstay Khalil Greene will make some spectacular plays, get his face on television, and be average offensively. The National League has evened out the talent at shortstop in recent years with the emergence of Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and maybe Troy Tulowitzki; on the other hand, guys like Adam Everett, David Eckstein, and Jack Wilson still have their jobs.

On the bench will be old friend Todd Walker and Geoff Blum providing sub-par defense around the infield and Jose Cruz Jr. ready to jump in if Sledge falters in left.

The Padres just didn’t keep pace with their opponents this off-season. The Diamondbacks and Rockies are young and only going to get better, and the Dodgers and Giants have deep pockets and weren’t afraid to spend. This division might be the most balanced top-to-bottom in baseball, but I don’t see the Padres repeating their playoff appearance. The team with the healthiest pitching will win the West and Maddux and Wells are the biggest injury risks. I see a second place finish in my Cristal ball.

Projection: 83-79

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 3/5/2007 8:54 am

Before I take a look at the 2007 Angels, one quick note:  the current version of Boston Celtics may be an inexperienced and poorly coached basketball team, but they just squeaked out a double-overtime win against Minnesota, and some of their young guys looked good doing it.  West, Gomes, Jefferson, Green.  Those 4 guys are fun to watch.  Hopefully they stick around for a few years. 

Now, on to our national pastime…

2006 Record: 89-73, 2^nd place AL West

Projected Lineup:
CF Gary Matthews Jr.
SS Orlando Cabrera
RF Vladimir Guerrero
LF Garret Anderson
DH Shea Hillenbrand
1B Casey Kotchman
C Mike Napoli
2B Howie Kendrick
3B Chone Figgins

Projected Rotation:
John Lackey
Kelvim Escobar
Jered Weaver
Ervin Santana
Joe Saunders

Projected Closer:
Francisco Rodriguez

Outlook:
The Los Angeles Angels (the name I will use to identify this baseball team; I guess I’m a purist) came into 2006 with lofty expectations, and hung in the AL West picture despite a slew of injuries and regressions.  In the end, all the small-ball and Disney karma in the world could not elevate Mike Scioscia’s squad past the Oakland Athletics, as the Halos fell short of their bid to bring home a third straight division championship.

The offense was particularly underwhelming last season, and with the broken leg suffered by the talented Juan Rivera and the retirement of Tim Salmon, the team will be counting on a new overpriced (and questionably conditioned) free-agent addition, as well as several young bats to score a few more runs this season.

While the bats may have sputtered in 2006, the pitching was surprisingly excellent, with another strong campaign from emerging staff ace John Lackey, and a performance from rookie Jered Weaver which exceeded even the gaudiest projections.  The bullpen was no exception, as “K-Rod” continued to dominate the 9^th inning, and perhaps emerge as the best closer in the major leagues outside of New York.

The 2007 rotation looks to be one of the most promising in the major leagues, as John Lackey returns from a year in which he finished 5^th in the AL in ERA, and 3^rd in strikeouts.  Lackey impressed in just about every area last season, and the big right-hander looks to continue that trend at age 28.  At age 31, Kelvim Escobar will be the oldest member of this upstart rotation to begin the year.  The Venezuelan veteran enjoyed a solid 2006 season with pinpoint control and a 121 ERA+.  If he can stay healthy, Escobar will be a solid mid-rotation guy, providing quality innings with his blistering stuff.  The most highly-anticipated starter, and a guy with one of the higher ceilings in the league, is towering right-hander Jered Weaver.  The 24-year-old phenom will be hard-pressed to repeat his 2006 rate stats, but could possibly become the ace of the staff, especially if he manages to curb the gopher-balls.  Once Weaver becomes more accustomed to some of the lefty sluggers in the AL, he should decrease his HR rate and possibly emerge into an All-Star. 

Another young starter with an extremely high ceiling is 24-year-old Ervin Santana.  A right-hander with a filthy slider and mid-90’s fastball, Santana was solid and reliable in 2006, with 16 wins, 204 innings pitched, and a 4.28 ERA.  Santana will likely improve in 2007, as his K rate should increase from the pedestrian 6.22 of last season.  The youngster has shown a knack for durability, and another 200 innings of sub-4 ERA is not out of the realm of possibilities.  The April rotation will be rounded out by Joe Saunders, who looks to improve upon his 2006 rookie season.  Saunders displayed flashes of talent during his debut year, and the Virginia native will be holding a place in the rotation for the mountainous Bartolo Colon, as the horizontally-challenged pitcher recovers from a partially torn rotator cuff.  Since Colon is not expected to return to action until May at the very least, Saunders will have a few starts to audition for a long-term spot in the Angels rotation. 

On paper, the Angels bullpen looks to be one of the strongest in baseball, as they have added a key piece to compliment their phenomenal closer.  Justin Speier, acquired via free-agency from Toronto, will bring his forkball and his 9.7 K rate to southern California.  Speier could be a closer on most teams in baseball, as could versatile sinkerballer Scot Shields.  The 31-year-old Shields sports a career ERA of 2.81 and has averaged 71 games pitched in the past 3 seasons.  These two guys look to form one of the strongest set-up corps in the AL, a formidable addition to Francisco Rodriguez himself.  The All-Star closer had the best year of his young career in 2006, striking out 12 guys per 9 innings and posting a dominant ERA+ of 254 while saving 47 (leading the league in saves for the second straight year).  Yet one more solid right-handed arm to add to the bullpen mix: 37-year-old veteran Hector Carrasco (full name: Hector Pacheco Pipo Carrasco).  Carrasco, a long-man and occasional spot starter, returns to the fold after a season in which he pitched 100 innings and held opposing batters to a sub-.300 OBP. 

Following the gaggle of right-handed power arms is a couple of ex-Red Sox lefty hurlers, one of whom is a promising hurler who never got much of a chance to crack the Sox bullpen (Phil Seibel), the other is a guy who I am absolutely shocked is still pitching in the major leagues (Darren Oliver).  The 36-year-old Oliver had a surprising career revival in 2006 for the NL East champion New York Mets, after missing the entire 2005 campaign.  Boston fans might remember Oliver as a guy who was hit hard and often back in 2002, but the lefty could find some use as a situational reliever for the Angels, as he managed to hold left-handed batters to a .208 average last year. 

The Los Angeles Angels lineup will have one major addition in 2007, Gary Matthews Jr., acquired via a contract which epitomizes the insanely inflated free agent market.  In addition to the exorbitant 5 year $50,000,000 contract is the fact that Matthews has been in the current headlines more often than Anna Nicole Smith and that guy from Detroit who butchered his wife.  In light of the recent illegal performance-enhancing drug allegations surrounding the Angels newest outfielder, I’m guessing that GM Bill Stoneman is feeling at least some slight buyer’s remorse.  If “Little Sarge” is able to pull a Giambi and skate away from these allegations, the 32-year-old will bring a steady bat to a lineup in desperate need of a boost.  At this point, Angels fans have to be worrying about this guy’s lack of a track-record in tandem with these recent roid rumors, as 2006 was his only decent year.

Flanking Matthews in the outfield will be two longtime Anaheim institutions, the aging Garrett Anderson, and the franchise superstar Vladimir Guerrero.  The once durable Anderson has seen his production slowly plummet towards mediocrity, and the 34-year-old left fielder will try to provide league-average play in 2007.  He has become particularly weak versus left-handed pitching, posting a miserable .280 OBP against southpaws last season.  While Anderson is declining, Vladimir Guerrero’s bat has shown very few signs of slowing down.  While the 31-year-old isn’t as dominating quite to the same degree as he was circa 2002, the cannon-armed slugger and future Hall of Famer is a likely bet for around 8 RC/27 (in layman’s terms: he’s still f***ing nasty).  Backing up the 3 outfielders will be the versatile Robb Quinlan (career .805 OPS), who should also see time at 1B, especially if Casey Kotchman can’t return to form.  The final OF spot will most likely be won by speedy switch-hitting outfielder Reggie Willits (31 SBs, .448 OBP in AAA last season). 28-year-old rookie Tommy Murphy (.804 OPS in AAA last season) is a long-shot.

The Angels infield, on paper, will be the same as it was in 2007.  However, southern California is expecting better things from a couple of their young phenoms on the right side of the infield this season.  Casey Kotchman had a lost season in 2006, primarily due to suffering from mono.  He appears to be back and healthy, as he is in the spring training lineup in the Cactus League.  If healthy, he should be able to produce decent contact and moderate power numbers, in addition to solid 1B defense.  The Angels also have Cuban defector Kendry Morales available, and the fist baseman raked in a half season in AAA before struggling in the majors in 2006.  Old friend and notorious unpleasant bastard Shea Hillenbrand figures to see most of the DH at-bats, and could see time at 1B or 3B if one of the starters needs a rest. 

At second base is the highly-touted Howie Kendrick, who made a name for himself by producing Wade Boggs-type numbers in the minor leagues as a second baseman for the past few seasons (.361/.401/.570).  Howie, at any moment, could break out and begin to climb up the batting leader board at any time, and a 2007 emergence would help this languishing offense quite a bit.  Red Sox fan-favorite and notorious Daisy Buchanan’s patron Orlando Cabrera will return to SS.  Cabrera is a safe bet for solid defense at the infield’s most crucial position, but shouldn’t be counted on to produce quite as well as he did in 2006.  Brandon Wood’s placeholder will likely switch spots in the batting order with Kendrick, once the 2B starts to rake to his potential.  The speedy Chone (pronounced “Shawn”) Figgins, 29, looks to bounce back from his sub-par offensive year in 2006.  Expect on OBP around .350 for Figgins, who will play 3B after the acquisition of Matthews.  Backing up the infielders is the promising Erick Aybar, who will also see time in CF, and Macier Izturis will also compete for a spot.

The catching situation is an interesting one in Anaheim, as there appear to be three catchers vying for two spots on the roster.  The favorite to win the starting job (and not by a wide margin) is Mike Napoli, who impressed former catcher Scioscia with solid defense and a .455 slugging percentage in 2006.  Longtime Angels backup Jose Molina will compete with offensive-minded prospect Jeff Mathis for the final spot on the roster.  Molina’s bat certainly won’t win him any points, and Mathis hasn’t raked as advertised, as of yet.  As of now, I expect Mathis to start the season at AAA Salt Lake, until he forces his way onto the major league roster with his bat.

While the Angels seemed to take a step back in 2006, much of that was due to injuries to several key players, as well as the annual suckitude of players like Darin Erstad and Dallas McPherson.  They did improve their offense a bit (albeit by questionable long-term methodology), and their pitching looks to be just as good as last year.  Coupled with a decline from their rivals in Oakland, the Angels should once again make a play for the division title.

Prediction: 91-71

Top 10 Prospects:

1. Brandon Wood, SS
2. Nick Adenhart, RHP
3. Erick Aybar, SS
4. Hank Conger, C
5. Stephen Marek, RHP
6. Jeff Mathis, C
7. Sean Rodriguez, 2B
8. Sean O’Sullivan, RHP
9. Tommy Mendoza, RHP
10. Young-Il Jung, RHP

Comments (4)

By Zach, 3/1/2007 8:34 am

2006: 79-83, 3rd in NL East

Lineup
2B Kelly Johnson (L)
SS Edgar Renteria (R)
3B Chipper Jones (S)
CF Andruw Jones (R)
C Brian McCann (L)
RF Jeff Francoeur (R)
1B Craig Wilson (R)
LF Ryan Langerhans (L)

Rotation
RHP John Smoltz
RHP Tim Hudson
LHP Chuck James
LHP Mike Hampton
RHP Kyle Davies

Closer
RHP Bob Wickman

This team has fallen far. Fifteen years of divisional dominance ended last year with a third place finish and a sub-.500 record. The most telling evidence of their plummet to obscurity was demonstrated when the staff here at Dewey’s House was drafting teams for these previews, and I got stuck with the the Braves as the last pick. Apparently the Royals and Brewers are more exciting to write about than Atlanta. Compelling intro, eh?

Here’s a quick recap of key changes. Adam LaRoche was shipped to the ‘Burg for leftie Mike Gonzalez, and Craig Wilson was added. Rookie Scott Thorman will get time at first while Wilson spells Ryan Langerhans in left. Marcus Giles was fired and youngster Kelly Johnson will compete with Martin Prado and vet Chris Woodward for the second base job. Mike Hampton will return from injury and Rafael Soriano was stolen from the Mariners for Horacio Ramirez.

The bullpen is a force to be reckoned with after the offseason additions. Bob Wickman has two guys looking over his shoulder for that closer’s job in Gonzalez and Soriano. The latter had an absurd 1.08 WHIP in 60 IP last year. Gonzalez is no slouch either with 24 saves and a 2.17 ERA. 31 BB in 54 IP sucks, but 64 Ks will hide some mistakes. It’s safe to say the Ken Ray closer experiment will not have a sequel. Oscar Villareal was the toughest and smartest vulture in the pack, with a 9-1 record in 92.1 IP. Chad Paronto was another contributor at a 1.27 WHIP and 41 Ks in 56.2 IP. Leftie Macay McBride should only face his own kind; right-handers tee off to the tune of an .835 OPS versus a miniscule .547. His K/BB split is 30/9 versus 16/23. Are you listening Bobby? Anyway, few teams have such a clear view of their bullpen at this point in the pre-season.

If only the rotation was so cut-and-dry. The question marks are large and numerous. Mike Hampton is scheduled to return from Tommy John surgery, but he hasn’t had a good year since 2000. If he’s better than league average, sign me up for TJ surgery and I’ll give it a shot next spring. Chuck James has some sexy stats, but his peripherals (1.5 HR/9, 1.94 K/BB) don’t support his ERA (3.78) and WHIP (1.24). The bottom line: he was lucky (.250 BABIP). He is intriguing, but what 25-year-old lefty isn’t? Kyle Davies’ line last year: 3-7, 8.38 ERA 1.94 WHIP. Someone must see something in this kid; I might understand the fifth spot earmarked for him if he was left-handed. He’ll be on a short leash, but the departure of Ramirez and John Thomson eliminates any semblance of depth from the starting rotation.

Leading the pack among very average starters was Tim Hudson. At 31 I expect him to improve; he is still in the peak of his career and should have learned that veteran savvy. Don’t expect vintage Hudson K rates (7-8/9 IP), but if he can prevent homers like he did in 03 (.4/9 IP) and 04 (.5/9 IP) he should be closer to his career 3.31 ERA. He’s going to have to change his game and become more of a strategic pitcher if he hopes to pitch another 6-8 years. I don’t know much about his work ethic, but reinventing himself won’t be easy.

When age will be relied on exclusively, all signs point to a collapse. John Smoltz must repeat his 2006 effort and remain healthy if the Braves hope to avoid embarrassment. They picked up the final year of his contract (an $8 million option) for 2007, and it would be nice if he decided to go out on top and ride off into the sunset. At least he didn’t pull a Schilling and bring it into the media before camp.

I’ve penciled in Kelly Johnson as the favorite for the second base job because they’ll need a lead-off hitter from this position and he has shown the best ability to get on base throughout his career. Still, this is no small feat for a rookie that missed nearly all of 2006 with an elbow-injury and hasn’t played a major league inning at second base. His defensive inexperience shouldn’t count against him; he was a shortstop coming up and was blocked by Furcal and Giles in 2005. That effort was by all accounts a success with 24 XBH, 4.12 P/PA and 40 BB in 290 ABs. Chris Woodward is the veteran backup and Martin Prado is hanging around training camp for motivation. Clearly they can’t carry four middle infielders, Prado is the odd-man out.

Edgar Renteria’s Red Sox-subsidized contract has turned into a deal. The Sox are paying Edgar at least another $4 million this year, so the current Red Sox shortstop budget is $13 million. Hey, its still about $30 million less than the Yankees are paying their shortstops. Can we agree to forget about Edgar’s existence? Great.

Regarding Andruw Jones, two words: contract year.

Andruw’s cousin Larry returned to his mid-90s form, if he can stay off the DL I expect the same. Don’t expect 40 home runs, but he’s a professional hitter. I’m not one to ride a valuable hitter because of defense, but this team would be better if Chipper could handle left field. Better evidence of the intricate mental nature of baseball I haven’t seen. Common sense would suggest he would be comfortable in the cooler corner, but that wasn’t the case.

Going into 2006 we were looking at one of the thinnest crops of elite catchers in memory. The old guard had gotten older and the new kids on the block were named Victor Martinez. Well, Brian McCann is this year’s Victor Martinez. A catcher with a .960 OPS is one of the most valuable commodities in baseball. Did I mention he’s 23? I don’t know anything about his ability to work with pitchers, but if he’s within 100 points of that OPS he’ll still be the best catcher in the National League.

Jeff Francoeur has two things going for him: power and youth. His 29 dingers and 22 years will give him another chance to develop some patience, but if he expects to turn into Vlad Guerrero he’ll be rudely awakened. A P/PA around 3.3 is okay if you still walk more than you strike out (Vlad: 61/48), but Francoeur is merely a hacker (23/132). Pitchers figured this out in 2006 and his 2007 will be worse, barring an adjustment on his part.

Left field and first base will be shared by Craig Wilson, Ryan Langerhans and Scott Thorman until one of these guys forces Bobby Cox’s hand. Wilson provides the flexibility and will move back and forth. My vote is Wilson and Thorman off the bat, I only have Langerhans in there because he’s the incumbent. “Tick…tock…tick…tock” is all Thorman can hear. He’s had two solid years in AAA and is entering his year 26 season. He has to make it happen soon.

In the end, the rotation will lose more games than the bullpen can win. The offense will miss LaRoche and I don’t see McCann repeating. They’ll be closer to 800 runs scored, and they’ll allow around 850.

Prediction: 76-86

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By Jimmy, 2/28/2007 9:06 am

2006 Record: 80-82, 3rd NL Central

Projected Lineup:
CF Ryan Freel
2B Brandon Phillips
RF Ken Griffey
LF Adam Dunn
3B Edwin Encarnacion
1B Scott Hatteberg
C Dave Ross
SS Alex Gonzalez

Projected Rotation:
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Eric Milton
Kyle Lohse
Elizardo Ramirez

Closer:
David Weathers

Outlook:
Like Colorado, the Red Legs were one of baseball’s nice little surprises in 2006. Manager Jerry Narron seemed to push all the right buttons last season, as his squad outperformed their Pythagorean record of 76-86 by 4 wins, and actually contended for a good portion of the year. In 2006, GM Wayne Krivsky made two notable trades: one turned out spectacularly, the other made the baseball world shake its collective head in disbelief.

Shortly before the 2006 season began, the Reds dealt promising yet flawed OF Wily Mo Pena to the Boston Red Sox for starter Bronson Arroyo. At first glance, this trade seemed to be a bit of a coup for Boston: Wily Mo was a 24 year old athletic slugger with an explosive bat and tons of upside. Arroyo was viewed as a 6th arm in the Boston rotation, a 29-year-old guy with a 98 ERA+, essentially your typical league-average right-handed pitcher. However, much to the chagrin of Boston fans, Arroyo shocked the National League with an All-Star performance. Wily Mo, meanwhile, produced reasonably well in a limited role for Boston, but made a few gaffes in RF which drew the ire of the unforgiving Fenway crowd, and caused the relentless WEEI-nation to pine for the guitar-strumming hurler.

That was the good trade. The trade which baffled fans and analysts everywhere occurred in mid-season, when Krivsky sent away 3 promising young players (Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner) to the Washington Nationals, in exchange for 2 young relievers (Gary Majewski and Bill Bray), the mummified corpse of Royce Clayton, and some flotsam and jetsam. Bray is a useful lefty arm, but Majewski is currently suffering shoulder pains. The two make an interesting tandem, as Majewski is effective against right-handers, while Bray is stronger versus lefties. However, the trade of Kearns and Lopez leaves a void on the roster today, as Cincinnati was forced to overpay for the likes of Alex Gonzalez to occupy SS, and forced to rely on 37-year-old Scott Hatteberg at first base.

We’ll get to the lineup later, let’s take a look at the starting rotation.

As you probably know, the art of ranking starting pitchers 1 through 5 is arbitrary, and doesn’t carry a whole lot of water.  Barring serious injuries, a #4 starter will receive just as many starts as the Opening Day starter, and the rotation will be inevitably shuffled, due to rain-outs and minor injuries, among other things.  When I rank starting pitchers here, I am simply raking them in the order that they will most likely be used at the beginning of the year.  In some cases, the #1 starter may not be the best starter.  However, not in this case: if I had to pick between Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang to start one game, I would choose Harang.  He has much better peripherals and better stuff than our old co-ed dormitory-invading friend.  Thus, he is my #1 here.  Despite Harang having an ERA a half-run higher than Bronson, he was the better pitcher in 2006; better K/9, better K/BB, and almost an identical HR rate.  He led the league in strikeouts, starts, and shutouts in 2006, we well as wins.  The Reds recently made a very smart move, inking the 28-year-old ace to a four-year, $36.5 million deal.

Arroyo returns to the rotation after a career year, leading the league in innings pitched, finishing 4^th in ERA, and pitching in the All-Star game.  Perhaps it’s my Boston bitterness coming through here, or perhaps it’s the fact that Bronson had Lady Luck on his side in 2006 (a .262 BABIP from a flyball pitcher), but I see a rude awakening for Arroyo in 2007.  Expect a few of those fly balls to carry a little bit farther this year, expect him to give up roughly 35 homers, and expect that ERA to rise at least 1 full run.  Which isn’t to say he’ll have a bad season…his performance will simply normalize, relative to his true abilities.

After Harang and Arroyo, the quality of Reds pitching falls off a cliff.  Their 3^rd starter, Eric Milton, gives up more homers than the CPU pitcher in Nintendo’s Baseball Stars.  Thanks to one of the more questionable contracts in recent history, Milton will be making nearly $10,000,000 next year, and he is a lock to give up 40 HRs if healthy.  Per 200 NL innings pitched, Milton averages 43 home runs allowed.  Unless Reds ownership decides to bulldoze the walls at the Great American Ballpark and create an actual MLB stadium, Milton will have a long, tortuous season.  Expect an ERA around 6.00. 

After Milton is yet another Minnesota ex-pat: Kyle Lohse.  The infamously inconsistent Lohse does show some promise: he has decent stuff, and performed relatively well as a starter in Cincinnati after a mid-season trade.  He’s only 28 (I know, it feels like he’s been around forever), so I suppose there is a chance the right-hander could break out.  He has strong peripherals (7.3 K/9, 1 HR per 9 innings, 2.7 K/BB in Cincy) and a live arm.  I would wager my soul that Lohse will outperform Eric Milton in the rotation in 2007.  However, even at his best, Lohse is just about average.       

Bringing up the rear of the rotation to begin the season will be Elizardo Ramirez.  The young Dominican was in the Cincinnati rotation for much of 2006, as was frustratingly inconsistent.  At times, he could dominate (striking out 7 straight batters in one game), but he mostly proved to be very hittable in his rookie campaign.  In 2007, Elizardo will be looking over his shoulder, as uber-prospect Homer Bailey will be drawing some serious attention in AAA.  If he pitches in AAA anywhere near as effectively as he pitched in AA, the Cincinnati media and fans will be clamoring for the debut of the big Texan.  Newly acquired Kirk Saarloos (check out my Oakland preview, which was written before they sent him here) will also be making a bid to unseat Elizardo, although Kirk will likely start as a long reliever. 

The Reds bullpen picture is not quite as dreary as the back-end of the rotation.  Although the roles have yet to be defined, the Reds boast a decent combination of quality veterans and promising youngsters.  Their closer, Eddie Guardado, is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, and will not be ready to contribute until mid-season.  In his stead, the closer position is not exactly set in stone.  David Weathers handled the duties in 2006, pitching fairly well (3.54 ERA in 74 innings), and looks to be the best bet to open the season as the team’s primary 9^th inning option.  Veteran lefty Mike Stanton returns to the Reds, after proving to still be useful in 2006.  Since Weathers and Stanton will be turning 38 and 40, respectively, the Reds would be wise to have a Plan B available, in case the wheels were to fall off of the geezers.  Rounding out the geriatric faction of the pen is old friend Rheal Cormier.  The wily lefty is essentially the Jamie Moyer of relievers, a guy with a fastball in the 80’s who is still chugging along, way past his expiration date.  Rheal is not a LOOGY (nor are any of the Reds lefties), and I wouldn’t put much stock into his future in the MLB.  He did have a 2.44 ERA last season, so it is not improbable that he will be once again effective in 2007, despite my bearish predictions.

The young arms in the bullpen include Matt Belisle (righty, 26), Bill Bray (lefty, 23), and Todd Coffey (righty, 26).  If I were assigning bullpen roles for the Red Legs, Coffey would be my choice for closer.  3.58 ERA last season despite a high BABIP, decent control and stuff.  I cannot realistically envision David Weathers out-pitching Coffey under normal circumstances, at this stage of their careers.  Belisle is a guy who can start, and he does have an outside shot at that 5^th rotation spot.  Bray in the most promising player acquired in the Kearns/Lopez deal, and can pitch effectively to both left and right-handers. 

Except for the SS position, the Cincinnati starting lineup will be just about the same as it was when the 2006 season ended.  The one newcomer, Alex “Seabass” Gonzalez, will bring his flashy glove-work and heads-up brand of play from Beantown to the National League.  Alex will not be reminding anyone of Arky Vaughan, with a career OPS of .684 (among the lowest in the league).  He will, however, be challenging Omar Vizquel for the 2007 Gold Glove Award, and will provide more than a few “ESPN Moments” while patrolling the infield.

Joining Seabass in the middle infield will be second baseman Brandon Phillips.  Phillips and I have something in common: we both put on 10 pounds in the off-season.  However, while I put on ten pounds of doughy office-flab, Brandon added 10 pounds of lean muscle.  If there is one player in the Reds lineup who will break out this season, Phillips is the safest bet to be that guy.  The 24-year-old looks to continue a promising jumpstart to what was once a floundering career, after hitting 17 homers and stealing 25 bases in 2006.

At the corner infield positions stand Scott Hatteberg (1B) and Edwin Encarnacion (3B).  Hatteberg’s strengths are well known to most of us, but alas, our old friend is getting a bit long in the tooth.  The converted first baseman still has the eye of an osprey, drawing 77 walks and only 41 strikeouts.  However, he will not be improving at this stage, and the Reds put themselves at a disadvantage without a more productive hitter at such a key position.  While Hatteberg sails toward the sunset of a respectable career, Encarnacion sails in the opposite direction.  The 24-year-old posted an .832 OPS in his first full season, and will look to improve this summer, particularly in the power department.  While his defense can be described as lackluster, he is young enough to improve in this area (as Hatteberg did not too long ago).

The Reds added some veteran leadership to their bench this off-season, acquiring racquetball king Jeff Conine from the Baltimore Orioles.  Even at age 40, Jeff can still hit a little, and will serve as a bat off the bench and defensive replacement for Scott Hatteberg at first.  Juan Castro, the sure-handed middle infielder, will return in a utility role, backing up Gonzalez and Phillips.  Another familiar face, discriminating swinger Mark Bellhorn (One Of The 25), has agreed to a minor league contract, and will vie for a spot on the bench.

Catcher David Ross will assume the bulk of the backstop duties after a career year in 2006, in which the 29-year-old crushed 21 HRs in only 247 at-bats.  If I had to use one word to describe Ross, it would be “Mirabelli”.  Honestly, Ross’ game is identical to Mirabelli’s (when Dougie was younger).  Dangerous power, huge holes in his swing.  Lots of strikeouts.  Crushes left-handers, gets torn apart by right-handers.  Slow as hell. Decent arm.  The only differences between Ross and Belli are their age and the batting gloves.  Since Jason LaRue was dealt to Kansas City, Javier Valentin looks to inherit the #2 role behind Ross.  The switch hitting backstop is one of the better backup catchers in baseball, and will provide value both offensively and defensively while giving Ross the occasional rest.

The strength of this Reds team, once again, is their outfield.  Ken Griffey, shockingly, is recovering from an injury (broken hand), but he should be playing in Spring Training games by the Ides of March, at the very latest.  Word on the street is that the future Hall of Famer will finally make the move to right field, and the speedy Ryan Freel will take over in center.  This has yet to be confirmed, but since it seems like the logical move, it probably won’t happen.  Griffey can still hit, obviously not like the Kingdome version, but an .800 OPS over 130 games can be expected.  Freel is an interesting little player: he can run (career 77% in SB attempts), he gets on base (.367 career OBP), and his slugging percentage almost cracked .400 last season.  All things considered, Freel is a fine leadoff option.

Finally, we get to the towering monstrosity in left field, Adam Dunn.  Dunn possesses what John Sickles would describe as “old player skills”: power and patience, size and strength, but zero agility.  Dunn is still young, only 27, but the trends in his offensive production present more red flags than a Chinese government office.  His last 3 SLG% totals: .569, .540, .490.  His last 3 OBP totals: .388, .387, .365.  Last season, he stuck out in a whopping 35% of his plate appearances (this is among the highest in baseball history).  Perhaps a full-time move to LF will be good for Dunn, and he’ll be able to think more about his offense, rather than dwelling on picking throws out of the dirt.  To me, however, it looks like he is simply slowing down.

Backing up the outfielders will be the promising 26-year-old Wheaton College graduate, Chris Denorfia.  When Griffey makes his obligatory trip to the DL this year, the slap-hitting Denorfia will get the bulk of the playing time.  A dark-horse candidate to land a backup job is the speedy Hopper Norris, last year’s International League batting champion (.347).  One other name I will note, only because it is a good story, is Rule 5 selection Josh Hamilton.  The former #1 draft pick has made a remarkable comeback from drug addiction, but the odds of him making the 25-man roster are close to zilch, as the Reds outfield is more crowded than a Tokyo subway.

The Reds do have some promising young talent, but I have 3 problems with this team:

1) They overachieved last season.
2) It does not appear that they have improved.  Any surges by guys like Phillips and Encarnacion will likely be washed by a decline from the likes of Dunn and Arroyo.
3) The rest of the NL Central (with the possible exception of Houston) has improved.

Unfortunately for Baseball’s First Franchise, this team looks to be one of the weaker squads in an already weak division.

Prediction:  75-87

Top 10 Prospects
Homer Bailey RHP
Jay Bruce OF
Joey Votto 1B
Johnny Cueto RHP
Travis Woods LHP
Drew Stubbs OF
Paul Janish SS
Milton Loo SS
Sean Watson RHP
Chris Dickerson OF

Comments (3)

By Zach, 2/27/2007 9:16 am

2006: 61-101, Last in AL East

2007 Projected Lineup
CF Rocco Baldelli (R)
LF Carl Crawford (L)
1B Ty Wigginton (R)
DH Jonny Gomes (R)/Jorge Cantu (R)
RF Delmon Young (R)
2B Akinori Iwamura (L)
3B B.J. Upton (R)
C Dioner Navarro (S)
SS Ben Zobrist (S)

Rotation
LHP Scott Kazmir
LHP Cassey Fossum
RHP Tim Corcoran
RHP James Shields
RHP Jae Seo

Closer
RHP Seth McClung/RHP Dan Miceli/???

I’m bad luck. Going into August 2006, the Red Sox were hangin’ tough with the Yankees, ready to contend for a playoff spot.

So Dad says, “Hey Zach, let’s go to Tampa and check out the Sox next weekend, I just found some seats behind home plate.” I pondered the idea for a moment, and then he drops the all-important: “My treat.”

“Deal.”

I had a bad feeling from the beginning. First of all, Florida has crocodiles. Second, I knew the Trop was a dump. I don’t make a point of visiting dome stadiums so I don’t have much to compare, but I can say that it’s a barren, sterile pile of sweaty concrete. Its saving grace: Boddington’s at the concession stand. Maybe my Dad and I are spoiled Fenway snobs, but our first impression was “Damn, this place feels like a mall.”

“I’m gonna go get a beer. You want anything at Eddie Bauer?” Dad was pretty proud of himself after that gem. I’m sure you don’t need to be reminded, but after dropping two of three to the Rays, the Sox were swept by the Royals and massacred at the Fens by the Yankees. I take full responsibility for the disaster that was 2006. My presence in Tampa triggered the avalanche. You see, I’ve witnessed an inordinate amount of season ending injuries, blowout losses, rain delays, and other general shittyness. I learned two things on that trip to Tampa 1. Don’t get between a retiree and the Sunday buffet and 2. The Rays have some fire. They showed a lot of resolve, they stuck with it and played hard even though they were out of it when they broke camp.

Tell Nana and Pop-pop on the Gulf Coast that there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. The Rays have a young, cheap core with some major league experience. They have the best group of prospects, ever. The offense should be productive and Scott Kazmir is a stud-in-training. They have some very valuable commodities that could be traded before opening day for a starter. Put this team in the 2006 NL West and they run away with the division.

This is optimism in the most cautious sense. There are also a boatload of problems with they way the roster is constructed. Beyond the obvious infield clusterf*ck and bullpen ineptitude, they don’t have a true leadoff hitter. Nobody in the starting nine had an OBP over .350; those who were close are more valuable driving guys in. Rocco “The Woonsocket Wonder” Baldelli is the choice of conventional baseball stupidity, but he outslugged Gomes and Cantu (AKA “the sluggers”) by a significant margin. Honestly I don’t know how much stock to put into this, but he is far more comfortable batting first (1.005 OPS) than third (.803 OPS) and strangely his power explodes when he gets first crack (.639 vs. .476 SLG). While he seems to favor it, Rocco just isn’t programmed to leadoff. He can certainly hit; if he learns where the strike zone is he’ll be a star. A .533 SLG isn’t ideal for a leadoff guy, but no reason to complain. This is purely masturbatory; if he sticks in Tampa he’ll be hitting first.

I have a hopeless man-crush on Carl Crawford. After leading the league in triples for three years in a row, its safe to say he’s electrifying. His OPS trend since he became an everyday player in 2003 is pretty awesome: .671, .781, .800, .830. Although it’s slightly irrelevant, in 2004 he grounded into two double plays in 626 at bats. Not bad for the second hitter in a lineup. While unfashionable, maybe blazing speed at the top is more valuable than we post-Moneyball nerds sabermetricians believe.

Jonny Gomes looks more like he belongs on a fan boat in the Everglades more than batting third for the Devil Rays. He’s going to have to prove himself again this spring. I wouldn’t guarantee him a starting spot, he should battle Jorge Cantu. Jorge had a breakout in 2005 (.808 OPS) he fell of a cliff last year (.699). His versatility is nice but he won’t get many chances in the field. Barring a slew of injuries or a trade, he’ll be a DH. Ty Wigginton is sure to be in there after his career high 24 home runs and .828 OPS. He’s proven himself in the AL East after three years of obscurity in the NL. That old “change of scenery” line sometimes holds true. Bossman Junior Upton will make throwing errors at a record pace (13 in 139 chances in 2006) until they figure out a way to get him to the outfield. If Rocco gets dealt than Upton moves to left, Crawford to center, Wigginton/Iwamura to third and Cantu to first. A deal with the Phillies for Jon Lieber plus a prospect or two and a pile of cash would be a good fit. Lieber is bad, but a veteran in the rotation could be invaluable.

The right field mess has been cleaned up by Delmon Young. He averaged nearly one extra base hit every 10 at bats after getting the call in late August. As long as he doesn’t pull another Izzy Alcantara he’ll be in right for the duration and a huge improvement over the Damon Hollins/Russell Branyan/Greg Norton monster.

As I wrote in my first post at Dewey’s House, it’s going to take Akinori Iwamura at least a season or two to adjust. His value is largely dependant on where they play him (chill out, nerds). At second a .750 OPS is acceptable, but at third it’s near the bottom of the league. He’s going to need some time and the infield is crowded now, if he doesn’t find it by mid season he’ll find himself on the bench.

Does anyone else feel like recent advertising has stolen all your favorite songs and commercialized them to the point of nausea? Ben Zobrist should agree, during my aforementioned trip to Tampa I discovered Ben and I had favorite tune in common – The Chemical Brothers’ “Galvanize.” Well, for me its more of a guilty pleasure, but Ben was so fond it played before each of his at bats. Since then Budweiser has stolen this song from us, as well as Geico with Royksopp’s “Remind Me” and half a Goldfrapp album (Verizon, Alltel, Motorola, L’Oreal, Diet Coke, ABC, F/X, and Target all use Goldfrapp tunes, thanks http://adtunes.com). Anyway, Zobrist couldn’t sniff a league average OPS+ (46) in 2006, but his 2006 minor league OPS was .984; there’s clearly some potential. Dioner Navarro will get the majority of the time behind the plate and Josh Paul is there to back up.

By the end of the season, we could be adding a name to the short list of major league aces, and its not Victor Zambrano. Is anyone else surprised Jim Duquette hasn’t been drawn and quartered in Flushing? Maybe he’s the part of the General Manager Protection Program. Kazmir was an All-Star last year and managed a mere 144 ERA+. The success is due to his reduced walk totals. After throwing up a BBenjamin in 2005 he cut the free passes to 52 last year and maintained his strikeouts. If he continues on that pace he’ll waltz into the Cy Young.

After Kazmir there’s some talent, but it’s thinner than Cassey Fossum’s waistline. You remember The Blade…he’s still not a reliable starter. Jae Seo threw up a 162 ERA+ in 90 IP in 2005, but was inconsistent last year. James Sheilds had a nice June in 2006 (4-1, 3.60), unfortunately he followed it with July (0-4, 6.49). If I had to bet on any of these bums to impress this year, it would be Tim Corcoran. He carried a very respectable 3.96 ERA into a mid-September contest with the Yankees, but left it bruised and battered after one third of an inning and seven earned. I think Tim would agree, he just didn’t have it that day.

Rumor has it they’re looking at Dustin Hermanson for the bullpen. He’d join some combination of Seth McClung, Dan Miceli, Scott Dohman, Al Reyes and possibly former uber-prospect Edwin Jackson at the end of the pen. J.P. Howell is still left handed, so he’ll be employed. Shinji Mori may never come back from a 2006 torn labrum, but remains property of the Rays – look for him in June. Chad Orvella will be back, as well as “doesn’t rhyme with Buddy,” Ruddy Lugo. Every time I hear “…and Shawn Camp is warming in the pen” I still hope it’s a fat dude in a Sonics Jersey suckin’ on a pint of SoCo. If Gerry Hunsicker finds someone with a name similar to “Detlef Schrempf” a la NBA Jam (Tournament Edition of course) I’d probably giggle myself to death. It’s a good thing that’s unlikely. The pen is a terrible mess and a glaring weakness, I get the feeling Joe Maddon will be picking names out of a hat.

The new owners have been promising change in the W column; unfortunately they’re in the wrong division to get make significant progress there. I guess they bought Lucifer out, because in 2008 they’re planning on dropping the Devil and becoming the Tampa Bay Rays. I understand their hesitance to be associated with the Antichrist, but it doesn’t exactly roll off the tougue. As long as they lose the strange color scheme they’ll be winners in my book.

Looking into the future, in 2008 they only have around $13 million committed, leaving them enough flexibility to add some payroll before the start of that campaign. Much like North Korea, they will focus on arms. Baldelli, Crawford, Iwamura, and Young are signed; while Elijah Dukes, Gomes, Upton and Zobrist will remain at the minimum ($380k). Arbitration costs (Kazmir and Cantu) will be significant and Hunsicker would be wise to lock up Kaz for his remaining arbitration years. The future is bright for the young Rays, as their star-studded farm system pours its talent into the bigs the main difficulty will be getting playing time spread around. They’ll have a number of big trading chips; building the value of these guys at the ML level will only make Hunsicker’s job easier.

If Maddon can find a few serviceable bullpen arms and some starters overachieve the Rays could challenge third place. I’m about to sound like a pathetic homer, but it will take a remarkable changing of the guard in the next five years for the playoff door to open. The Red Sox and Yankees have first and second all but locked down, and if they falter the Blue Jays are poised to contend. Don’t count out the deep pockets of Peter Angelos in Baltimore either. The East is incredible.

Prediction: 69-93

P.S. Nice win on Senior Night, Orangemen. Who wants to dance?

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 2/26/2007 9:35 am

2006 Record: 76-86, 4th place NL West

Projected Lineup:
CF Willy Taveras
RF Brad Hawpe
1B Todd Helton
3B Garrett Atkins
LF Matt Holliday
C Chris Iannetta
SS Troy Tulowitzki
2B Kaz Matsui

Projected Rotation:
Jeff Francis
Aaron Cook
Rodrigo Lopez
Josh Fogg
Jason Hirsh

Closer:
Brian Fuentes

Outlook:
The cool mountain air of the Rockies spawned many surprises last year. No, I’m not talking about the CEO of Coors being arrested for DUI.  I’m talking about a team that finished, amazingly, with 1 more run scored than run yielded.  As they usually are, Colorado’s lineup consisted of a few power hitters, a few bad contracts, and some decent pitchers (these pitchers must be kept in cages, heavily sedated, or else they will run away). 

Franchise pitcher Jason Jennings led a gritty staff in 2006, throwing 212 innings and posting a 3.78 ERA.  I don’t have to tell you that this type of performance is no small feat in Denver.  Behind him, Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook also provided steady performances on the mound, keeping the Rockies in ballgames.  However, the biggest surprises came from the hitters.  Even in their infamous hitters’ environment, the likes of Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, and Jamey Carroll all broke out in a major way.  This couldn’t have come at a more needed time, since franchise hitter Todd Helton had a relatively down year, due in part to a nagging stomach illness. 

In the off-season, the Rockies made quite a few moves, both via trade and free-agency.  The biggest move was the trading of their #1 starter, Jason Jennings, to the Houston Astros.  In return for Jennings, they receive speedy outfielder Willy Tavares, a decent pitching prospect in Jason Hirsh, and inning-eater Taylor Buchholz.  While this move may not help the rotation much in 2007, Hirsh will likely prove to be a useful starter in a couple of years.  Colorado also singed free agents LaTroy Hawkins (RP), Brian Lawrence (SP), Rodrigo Lopez (SP), and Javy Lopez (C).  I have to give GM Dan O’Dowd credit here; he certainly kept himself busy this winter.  A few of these guys might not contribute much (I honestly can’t see Javy Lopez doing anything useful anymore, after watching him drag his bloated, decomposing carcass around Fenway for a month), but the moves are low cost and low risk, with a potential upside.  

2007 looks to be another difficult year for Colorado starting pitchers.  The Jennings trade leaves a quasi-hole in the rotation, since Jason Hirsh may not be ready to pitch effectively.  He was lit up in his big-league debut in Houston, and might need some more AAA time before he is ready to grip the humidor-enhanced baseballs at Coors.  (Side note: How is the whole “humidor” thing even legal?  I think Fenway Park should store their baseballs in an oil drum. Or, maybe the pitchers should light the baseballs on fire before each pitch.  It wouldn’t hurt to explore the rules a bit, would it?)

In Jennings’ absence, Jeff Francis takes over as the Rockies’ #1 starter.  Francis improved greatly in 2006, and began to show why he was one of the most ballyhooed pitching prospects in baseball before getting the call.  In 199 innings, Francis posted an impressive 1.286 WHIP, while only yielding 18 homers on the year.  Behind him, Aaron Cook returns from a year in which he started 32 games, pitched 213 innings, and posted a respectable ERA of 4.23 (114 ERA+).  Cook is a nice story, recovering from blood clots in 2004 to have a healthy and successful season in 2006.  He relies on a heavy sinker, and has had success in the Coors environment, yielding lots of hits, but not a lot of homers.

After Francis and Cook, the outlook begins to get murky.  Newly acquired Rodrigo “The Red Sox Killer” Lopez will probably slide into the 3^rd spot in the rotation.  Lopez was rather atrocious in the American League in 2006, causing more pain and suffering in Baltimore than those crack-dealers from “The Wire”.  Lopez had the worst season of his career, losing 18 games and posting a 5.90 ERA.  Now, a large reason for his failures was the gopher-ball: 32 HRs allowed, and this is a bit of a red flag, considering his new home.  His K/9 and K/BB peripherals are all solid, but Rodrigo will need to keep the ball a bit lower in the zone to avoid getting pounded in Colorado.  He will have the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor, so expect a season at least slightly better than the egg he laid in Camden Yards last year.      

The final two spots in the rotation will be decided in spring training, and right now my Magic 8-Ball is trying the best it can to decipher this mess.  My money is on veteran innings-eater Josh Fogg filling the 4^th spot in the rotation.  If you were to look up “mediocrity” in the dictionary, a photo of Fogg’s mug would be staring at you.  If anything, the right-hander is consistent: his last 5 ERA+ are 88, 85, 89, and 81.  The standard deviation on his ERAs is lower than the number of laptops I own.  One thing working in Fogg’s favor: he doesn’t yield very many homers in Colorado.  In fact, his HR/9 actually decreased from his days at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.  Best case scenario: Fogg can keep them in enough games, and let the dangerous lineup out-slug the other team.

Now, for the final rotation spot, I have highly-touted prospect Jason Hirsh penciled in.  As I mentioned above, his pitches were not treated very kindly by opposing bats in 2006, but as a general rule, I don’t put much stock in the results of September cups-of-coffee.  Too much variability and pressure involved.  Beginning a fresh slate in Denver, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hirsh pitch similarly to the way Jeff Francis pitched in his rookie season (getting occasionally smacked around, but likely ending the year with numbers just as good as Fogg).  There are 4 more viable candidates for the 5^th slot, two of whom I would consider likely contenders, and the other two I would consider long shots.  Taylor Buchholz was another piece acquired from Houston is the Jennings deal.  Buchholz saw some time in the Houston rotation last season, and actually showed flashes of brilliance (including a complete game shutout), as well as flashes of incompetence (yielded 1.67 homers per 9 innings).  Old friend Byung-Hyun Kim started 27 games in the Rockies rotation in 2006, and enjoyed his usual high K rates and occasional control spasms.  While I personally would have Kim in the rotation over either Lopez, Fogg, or Hirsh, the grumblings out of Denver are that management likes him in the bullpen.  Ubaldo Jimenez and Brian Lawrence round out the long-shot candidates for the final starting spot.  Jimenez is a promising hard-throwing right-handed rookie, and Lawrence is a veteran who was out last season, recovering from surgery.  Both will need to impress this spring, in tandem with a miserable spring from the likes of Kim, Buchholz, and Hirsh. 

There will be one new face in the Colorado bullpen to compliment the rock-steady lefty closer, Brian Fuentes (who has made the last 2 All-Star teams). Free agent LaTroy Hawkins will join his fellow former-Oriole Rodrigo Lopez, and will likely serve as the set-up man in a serviceable bullpen.  25-year-old Ramon Ramirez returns after an outstanding rookie season in which he posted an ERA+ of 139 to go along with an impressive 8.10 K/9.  Former Royal Jeremy Affeldt will likely see most off the LOOGY situations in the bullpen.  The lefty was spanked with authority last season (6.91 ERA), but did hold lefties to a .212 batting average.  Another rookie, 24-year-old Manny Corpas, will likely join the big-league bullpen to begin the season.  Corpas was impressive in a brief trial in 2006, and provides more youth to a group of promising arms who have shown the ability to weather the high altitude.  Veteran lefty Tom Martin provided yeoman’s work in the Colorado bullpen last season, and will return as a reliable mop-up guy and token lefty, and insurance just in case Affeldt is ineffective.  One of Kim or Buchholz (whichever guy does not join the rotation) will serve as a spot starter or 12^th pitcher.

Before I move onto the infield, let me just say this: about 20 minutes ago, someone pulled the fire alarm in my building.  I performed my due diligence, making sure there was no actual fire (I opened my door and sniffed).  So for the past 20 minutes, I‘ve been typing this review with toilet paper jammed in my ears, and hatred in my heart.  Kids, don’t pull fire alarms, because I just might come looking for you some day.

On to the infield…

Todd Helton, the heart of this fledgling franchise, will return to his familiar post at first base (so we think).  I’m sure you’ve heard the countless trade rumors surrounding Helton, most of which had him going to the Red Sox in exchange for pitching.  You can see my analysis of a hypothetical deal here.  It is conceivable that a deal could still happen, but the talks have certainly cooled down of late, and the season is rapidly approaching, so we’ll assume Helton remains in Denver.  In 2006, Helton saw a noticeable drop-off in production, as his OPS shrank from .979 to .880.  Some of this could be attributed to the nagging stomach illness, but given his age (33), a drop-off in production should not be a surprise.  It would be unfair to expect Helton to put up the astronomical offensive digits that Mile-High fans had enjoyed for the better part of the 21^st century.  If Helton remains healthy, he’ll likely continue to hit well, but not like he did in 2003.

Kaz Matsui will begin the season as the regular second baseman.  “Mothra” played excellently after his mid-season acquisition from the Mets, hitting .345/.392/.504 in 123 plate appearances, and creating about 8 runs per 27 outs.  While his defense is not spectacular, Matsui fielded the position extremely well in his short trial with the Rockies.  His presence at second base will prevent Colorado from trying to rely on another fluke season from Jamey Carroll, the 33 year old who broke out last season.  Carroll will most likely become a utility man, and one of the first bats off the bench. 

The left side of the infield in Colorado is among the most promising in the league.  At SS, Troy Tulowitzki looks to inherit the starting job, after taking over for the deposed Clint Barmes in late 2006.  The young infielder is among a handful of prospective NL Rookie of the Year candidates, and PECOTA predicts him raking to the tune of .291/.349/.461 in 2007.  If “Tulo” comes even close to approaching those numbers, he would be a gigantic improvement over Barmes’ anemic performance of 2006.  I shall be rooting heavily for Tulowitzki, simply because he has a great baseball name, and it would make my All-Polish team just about complete. 

To the hot corner returns one of the biggest breakout stories of 2006: Garrett Atkins.  Atkins’ diet consisted mostly of hapless opposing pitchers, as he tore through the NL with an OPS+ of 138 and a VORP of 62.7.  The 27-year-old returns healthy and hungry, and should be expected to once again serve as the cornerstone of the Colorado lineup, most likely hitting third.  Garrett isn’t exactly Brooks Robinson with the leather; he’ll likely end up at first base eventually, perhaps as soon as this season if Helton is dealt.  However, his gaudy offensive production will certainly mitigate his defensive shortcomings. 

The catching situation is similar to the SS situation in Colorado: the team has the option of going with a weak-hitting guy with a decent glove and experience, or a highly touted rookie with a solid bat, a suspect glove, and not much experience.  In this chapter, Yorvit Torreabla plays the role of the weak-hitting incumbent starter, and Chris Iannetta stars in the role of the hot-hitting rookie.  Given Torreabla’s horrendous plate discipline (49/11 K/BB ratio, .293 OBP), the smart money is on manager Clint Hurdle giving Iannetta the nod, barring a horrid spring training.  While Iannetta isn’t as savvy behind the plate as Torreabla, he should hit exceptionally well in the mountain air, perhaps around .300/.375/.475.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see both Iannetta and Tulowitzki is Rookie of the Year conversations come September.  Javy Lopez will likely serve as a backup 1B, third catcher, and DH in AL parks, assuming he shows that he can still play this spring. 

The Colorado outfield will return two breakout stars from 2006, as well as a new addition up the middle.  Willy Taveras, 25, is the most exciting off-season addition to this team.  Acquired in the Jason Jennings deal, Taveras brings excellent defense and speed to a team that is devoid of both.  Taveras shined in the tricky Minute Maid Park centerfield last season, adding 17 fielding runs above average (FRAR), and was also a terror on the basepaths, stealing 33 bases in 42 attempts (79 %).  The knock on Taveras is his lack of power and plate discipline.  Even considering his new atmosphere, Rockies fans would be wise to not expect much from an offensive standpoint, except for some electric running down the first base line, resulting in more than a few infield hits and bunt singles.  Despite his OBP deficiencies (career .329 OPB), Tavares is as good of a choice as any to lead off in this lineup of heavy hitters.

At left field stands perhaps the Rockies best offensive player, and perhaps most unlikely hero in 2006, Matt Holliday.  At 6’4” and 235 pounds, Holliday saw his HR total jump from 19 in 2005 to 34 in 2006, as he led the team in homers, slugging percentage, and stolen bases.  Like several other players in this lineup, Holliday will come into 2007 at that magic age, 27.  If Todd Helton can manage to improve only a little from his “off” season, Holliday will have even more protection that he did last season, and will likely have another All-Star caliber season.  Along with his dangerous bat, Holliday actually improved defensively in 2006, and with the help of Taveras, should be able to cover plenty of ground in the vast Colorado outfield.

The other corner outfield spot will be occupied by the electrifying Brad Hawpe.  Brad is essentially Trot Nixon West, a gritty fan favorite who crushes right-handed pitching, but looks like me versus left-handed pitching.  A guy with good pop, sound plate discipline, a strong throwing arm, but not too much range.  Hawpe will likely (“should” will probably be more appropriate) hit near the top of the order versus right-handed pitching, and will likely see some days off against tough lefties.  In his stead, Jeff Baker will likely get a few at-bats.  The 26 year old will see time in the corner outfield positions, as well as 3^rd base.  In a small sample (101 PAs), the righty has mashed to the tune of .305/.347/.653.  While that gaudy slugging percentage will not be sustainable, he does have a career slugging percentage of .511, and thus can be counted on for some power off the bench.  Rounding out the reserves is Cory Sullivan. A centerfielder, Cory Sullivan, is another lefty hitter, but he has a less severe L/R split than Hawpe.  Sullivan can run, and will be used to spell Taveras, Holliday, and Hawpe on occasion, especially in the late innings.

It would seem that the fans of the Purple have hope on the horizon.  On paper, the team certainly has the young talent, and manager Clint Hurdle will be on the hot-seat this year.  Aside from arguably the Dodgers, there isn’t a clear cut favorite in the NL West.  The Colorado lineup does not have one easy out, their bullpen is stocked with live arms and competent role-players, and their bench is strong.  As usual, the one challenge facing the team is their starting pitching.  Cook and Francis should be able to win a few games, but the rest of the rotation can not be counted on for much more than league-average pitching.  There will be quite a few slugfests in the mountains this season. 

A few more will go their way this time around.     

Prediction:  84-78

Top 10 Prospects
Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Chris Iannetta, C
Ian Stewart, 3B
Dexter Fowler, OF
Franklin Morales, LHP
Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
Jeff Baker, OF
Joe Koshansky, 1B
Greg Reynolds, RHP
Manny Corpas, RHP

Comments (5)

By Zach, 2/22/2007 8:34 am

Last year: 85-77, 2nd in NL East

Lineup
SS Jimmy Rollins (S)
CF Aaron Rowand (R)
1B Ryan Howard (L)
LF Pat Burrell (R)
2B Chase Utley (L)
3B Wes Helms (R)
RF Shane Victorino (S)
C Rod Barajas (R)

Rotation
Brett Myers
Freddy Garcia
Jamie Moyer
Cole Hamels
Adam Eaton

Closer
Tom Gordon

Remember the Vet? Yeah, I’m trying to forget it too. I saw Nomar’s 6-6 (all singles) game only to leave with my Rudy Seanez (version 1.0) voodoo doll burned in effigy. In case you forgot (lucky!) Rudy can indeed fail, and did that afternoon, giving up a bomb to Todd Pratt in extras for the L. Beyond the trauma, the only other thing I remember about that game is the idiotic player-themed fan groups: “Thome’s Homies,” “Pat’s Bats,” “The Wolf Pack.” Ok, “The Padilla Flotilla” was kind of clever.

There was one different from all the rest. Far away in the furthest reaches of the 700 level there was one shining beam of truth cast upon the astroturf. I squinted, even got up from my seat so that I could be sure the letters weren’t deceiving me, and there…spray painted on a giant bed sheet…was the most genuine and hilarious of clubs: “GENERIC FAN GROUP.” A few dudes were standing around drinking domestic beer and high-fiving at random.

The Phillies have come a long way since then, in both architecture and player development. The offense scored 865 runs and they matched their Pythagorean projection in 2006. If their improved starting pitching comes as advertised, 2007 might be the year they turn the corner.

“Chase Utley” is a pretty good baseball name. It’s no “Enos Slaughter” or even “Raul Casanova” (cue Stu Scott), but it’s certainly sold a few jerseys. However, if I were a Phillies fan I would be a little worried. If my sanity depended on the success of a second baseman signed into his year 35 season I might be concerned. Oh wait, that already happened. The old “hey, its not my money” excuse is bunk. You’re right; it ISN’T your money, but its money that’s not going to be spent elsewhere. Does anyone think that because they locked Utley up until 2057 they’re going to increase total payroll? Will he turn into Rogers Hornsby? Maybe. Will he turn into Carlos Febles? It’s possible. Chase is 28, we all know what happens to players in their thirties. Why a seven year deal? A contract that long would make sense if he’s going to be commanding more than $12 million a year when he’s 35. He’s a helluva player now, but what’s the last seven year contract that wasn’t a mistake? Oh right, they’ve all been mistakes.

My friend Spastic Ric had a significant amount of coin riding on Ryan Howard and the under on 50 dingers in 2006. It looked like a lock at the beginning of the season and he was trumpeting it to the hills throughout the first half. After the All-Star break he slowly quieted down, eventually descending into the depths of depression and by August was routinely observed stomping around Bethlehem, Pennsylvania in the wee hours of the night cursing every man in the Charles Thomas Hall of Fame. Rumor has it he took out his anger on Donovan McNabb’s knee, Kerrigan-style (Nancy, not Joe). Double or nothin’ Ric?

Gillick hasn’t shown Howard the money yet, so he’s still got that fire. In a perfect world, an unnamed Giants jackass player collides with Howard as he’s rounding first base after unnamed jackass player knocks his 713th homer. Unnamed jackass player suffers debilitating and career ending ego injury; Howard goes on to whack 74 dingers in 2007. (Audible sigh)

Jimmy “Do it for the Hoes!” Rollins is also doin’ it for the dolla-dolla-bills ya’ll. He’s wondering why he didn’t get a piece of that Utley pie. Last year he signed a 4/40 contract but if Julio Lugo gets 4/36, Jimmy could have had 4/50 in the new market. You lookin’ for representation Jimmy? Charlie Manuel will bat him leadoff, and Rollins will hack at first pitches on a regular basis. Watching a leadoff hitter with a penchant for swinging at bad pitches (early and often) is a cruel form of torture. On the bright side, Rollins cracked the Top 100 (#99) in P/PA at 3.70. Congrats James.

The outfield is going to be a weakness. Aaron Rowand is still living off his .905 OPS in 2004, but his sixth-sense fielding in center will pay his checks for a few more years. If you’ve never seen him play in person you’re missing out. The next era of media had better include interactive television so I can make the center field camera zoom out to get him in the frame; it seems as though he starts moving before the ball is hit. His injury last year was nothing but a fluke and a return to 2005 form is expected. In right, Shane Victorino is cheap, 27, and last year was his first full season, so an improvement is probable. He had only 33 extra base hits, and in that ballpark a .414 slugging is amateur. An outfield upgrade might need to be addressed mid-season, depending on the fate of their much-maligned left-fielder.

Reason #324 why no-trade clauses are a bad idea: Pat Burrell. If Gillick is able to dump Burrell and his contract ($13m for 2007, $14m for 2008) for any discount he’ll jump at the chance. I mean, for that kind of money he could get a Gil Meche!

The lineup after Rollins gets a little messy. The two-hole could be Rowand or Victorino, neither of which is suited for such an important role. Utley makes sense here, but Howard must bat third and they could be neutralized by a LOOGY late in games. Their most pressing offensive need is a good right-handed corner guy for that two-hole.

Wes Helms is going to get the chance he deserves this year, and could be the right handed hitter Charlie Manuel needs. After Abraham Nunez’s miserable ‘06 campaign Helms will get the majority (if not all) of the at-bats at third. Helm’s OPS (.965) was 4th in baseball last year among third basemen with 200 ABs; ahead of a couple of bums named Alex Rodriguez and David Wright. He’s 30, and has only had one season of 300+
at-bats. Expect big things from him in 2007.

From the cozy humidity of Arlington comes Rod Barajas. The dimensions of Citizens Bank Park shouldn’t worry him much.

Whoever designed that park in Philadelphia was an idiot.
-Peter Gammons

When I own a baseball team, I’m going to put the fences 500 feet away so I can sign all the best pitchers as a discount. Who cares if I’m turning my lineup into 9 Sal Fasanos (sorry Sal’s Pals, salt in the wound)? Everybody plays in the same stadium.

I digress, Gillick’s hands were tied, Barajas was bad last year but the other FA options (Mirabelli, Javy Lopez, Sandy Alomar, Jr.) are filling out their AARP cards. Chris Coste will back-up. Ok former Sal’s Pals, vote on the following: “The Barajas Bananas,” “The Barajas Piranhas” or “Rod’s Wranglers” (if anybody picks Rod’s Wranglers I’m hangin’ it up).

The list of starters should really include Jon Lieber, because he’s still under contract. I foresee an end of spring training dump in typical Gillick panic mode. The little bird is whispering in his ear, “I know you’re getting ants in your pants, but hang onto Jon a little longer that you should, Pat, at least for Eaton insurance.” A lot of teams will be looking for a veteran starter in June, dumping him for bullpen help in April would be a mistake. He won’t turn into Wily Mo Pena, but last year the Sox prematurely shot their wad on Bronson Arroyo, and then they had a mess on their hands (R.I.P. Tobias Funke).

Brett Myers needs to step up and grow up. He’s made at least 31 starts a year since 2003, and averaged around one home run allowed per start. He’s going to have to cut down the dingers if he’s going to break through into the upper echelon of starting pitchers. The 2007 Phillies success will be directly proportional to Myers’. Adam Eaton is a big question mark but was 9-1 with a 3.18 ERA on the Padres in 2005 before he got hurt. Gavin Floyd needed to move on and he brought in Freddy “More Durable than Barbaro” Garcia; few pitchers have been more more consistent than Garcia since 1999 and a move to the National League should boost him slightly. Jamie Moyer is closer than anyone to hitting his age on the radar gun; he’ll be 45 by the end of the year. His preparation and strategy are better than anyone in the game (yes, even Maddux) and he’ll get guys out with the kitchen sink well into his sixties. Entering his third decade in baseball, there’s little reason to believe he’ll be any worse than the first two. Twelve wins and an ERA around 4.50 will be a very nice contribution. Cole Hamels pitched much better after the break last year, increasing his K/BB from 1.83 to 4.21. The skinny lefty looks a little like Casey Fossum, except with an entourage of chicks and enough talent to fill an oil tanker. Every team needs a solid lefty in the rotation; the Phils have two.

The rotation will be better than last year. After the deadline they were Myers, Moyer, Lieber, Hamels and Eude Brito. They’ve added Eaton and Garcia and will have full seasons from lefties Hamels and Moyer with Brito as the long man.

Flash is 39 but he’s only been a full-time reliever since he was 31. Eckersley made the transition at the same age and was an effective (if not dominant) closer until he was 42. With Gordon’s injury history and high stress motion, comparable durability is unlikely. His peripherals have been all over the map but were solid last year. He might have one more season in that 5’9” frame.

The six-fingered man joins Gordon in the bullpen. No, Antonio Alfonseca didn’t kill Inigo Montoya‘s father, and he isn’t “prepared to die.” Although he might be prepared to choke in a big game and throw a few to the backstop, as he’s been known to do. He’ll join Ryan Madson and Geoff Geary in the seventh and eighth. Arthur Rhodes has moved on to the Mariners; leaving Fabio Castro (31.2 career IP) and Matt Smith (20.2) as their only available lefties in the pen. I was shocked to learn that Rule 5-er Jim Ed Warden hails from Tennessee; if Tank Johnson can have his first name on his jersey, then Jim Ed should be able to as well. PhuturePhillies makes a good case for his use as a situational righty, but he sounds like a shot in the dark to me. When I hear “situational righty,” I think “waste of roster spot” so look for his return to whence he came.

The Phillies have improved markedly from last season’s solid campaign. The additions of Garcia, Eaton and Moyer will equal 4-6 more wins. If Myers finally puts it all together and Hamels continues on his second half pace the Phils will win the division.

Projection: 93-67

JRoll agrees with me.

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 2/21/2007 9:07 am

2006 Record: 93-69, 1 place AL West 

Projected Lineup:
C Jason Kendall
RF Milton Bradley
LF Nick Swisher
3B Eric Chavez
DH Mike Piazza
1B Dan Johnson
SS Bobby Crosby
CF Mark Kotsay
2B Mark Ellis

Projected Rotation:
Dan Haren
Rich Harden
Joe Blanton
Esteban Loaiza
Joe Kennedy

Closer:
Huston Street

The 2006 version of the Oakland Athletics did what one would expect from a modern A’s team: started off slow, caught fire in the second half, exceeded expectations, won the AL West, and lost in the playoffs.  Despite having an offense that was barely mediocre (9^th out of 14 in runs scored), the A’s won 93 games, fueled by strong pitching and defense. 

Their pitching staff was anchored by the ever-durable (and now very wealthy) Barry Zito, and their offense was led by a surprise monster season from veteran bopper Frank Thomas.  The bad news for the 2007 A’s: both of these players are gone via free-agency.  Barry Zito left for greener pastures, signing the largest pitching contract in baseball history with the cross-town Giants (the dirty hippie just couldn’t leave the Bay Area, could he?), and Frank Thomas left for colder pastures, joining the Toronto offensive juggernaut.

The good news for the A’s: just about every other significant player from the 2006 squad will be returning this year, several of whom had injury shortened or disappointing seasons in 2006, and can be expected to improve.  On the other hand, the A’s are again counting on a couple of players who simply aren’t very good.    

The biggest hole on the 2006 Athletics roster is the void created by my fellow paisan, pitcher Barry Zito.  In his 6 full seasons with Oakland, Zito had averaged 35 starts (!), 223 innings, and a 3.61 ERA; somewhat phenomenal considering the era.  The A’s hope to fill his absence with a guy who wasn’t around too often in 2006: Rich Harden.  Harden’s young career has been highlighted by high expectations, flashes of brilliance, and a boatload of injuries.  He’s sort of the pitching version of JD Drew, without the bad press.  According to manager Bob Geren, Harden will be ready to begin Spring Training in February.  If completely healthy, the 25 year old, carrying a career ERA+ of 123, would fill in adequately for Zito.  However, expecting Harden to make 30+ starts in 2007 is akin to expecting Britney Spears to put on some underwear before leaving the trailer. Probably won’t happen.    

Oakland has another stud in their rotation, and he’s no longer a secret:  Danny Haren, who returns for his 3^rd year with the A’s.  Like Zito, Dan has proven to be remarkably durable, and unlike Zito, Haren has great control and command of three quality pitches.  As the 26 year old right-hander enters his prime, Haren may emerge as the anchor of the rotation with a breakout All-Star caliber season.  If he can keep his HR totals to a reasonable number, expect Haren to enter the Cy Young discussion in 2007.

One of Oakland’s two major disappointments last season was pitcher Joe Blanton.  Blanton, a product of the “Moneyball” draft (i.e. he’s chunky but has good plate discipline), followed up a tremendous rookie year in 2005 with an off-year in 2006, in which his WHIP increased from 1.22 to 1.54.  The good news is Blanton managed to stay relatively healthy and win 16 games, but the bad news is his K rate was a paltry 4.96.  Judging by the BABIP for 2005 and 2006 (.241 and .320 respectively), there is some serious evidence that his 2005 success was a tad fluky.  Blanton does have good stuff, a fastball in the low 90’s and a plus 12-6 curve, but he will have to keep the ball out of the zone a bit more and start missing more bats to thrive as a solid MLB starter.

Bringing up the rear of the rotation, we have Esteban Loaiza and Joe Kennedy.  Loaiza, as he always is, will be a wildcard in 2007.  In the past 5 years, his yearly performances have been terrible, outstanding, poor, pretty good, and mediocre, respectively.  Interestingly, his K rate seems to fluctuate accordingly: (5.18, 8.23, 5.75, 7.18, 5.64).  While it would be silly to expect a repeat of the 2003 season in which he finished 2^nd in AL Cy Young voting, it would not be hard to imagine the 35 year old veteran pitching close to 200 above-average innings.  He sports a decent cut-fastball as well as 3 other pitches, and manages to throw strikes without yielding many HRs. 

Joe Kennedy, when he wasn’t busy vacationing at the family complex in Hyannis, pitched well for the A’s out of the bullpen in limited action in 2006.  Kennedy was recently signed to a 1 year deal worth $2.8 million, and is the favorite to win the final rotation job as of this writing.  Kennedy’s left-handedness is a point in his favor, as Zito’s departure leaves the rotation without another lefty.  His primary competition, Kirk Saarloos, held down the fort as a spot starter in 2006, but the general consensus is that Kennedy has the better stuff and potential.

The biggest strength of the 2006 A’s looks to remain strong in ’07, a bullpen anchored by 9^th inning phenom Huston Street.  The 23 year old boasts a 180 ERA+ in his 149 MLB innings.  Street struggled a bit against lefties in 2006 (.761 OPS against, compared .512 versus righties), but he is still learning to handle the strike zone when facing the left-handed boppers of the AL.   Despite ending the season on an embarrassingly sour note: yielding a historic season ending HR to Magglio Ordonez to end the 2006 ALCS, look for the closer to come back with numbers somewhere in-between his rookie and sophomore campaigns.   

The Oakland bullpen is equipped with more arms than a Hindu god.  In addition to their closer, the A’s have a trio of right handed relievers who managed an ERA+ over 130 last season: Justin Duchscherer (152), Chad Gaudin (143), and Kiko Calero (130).  Duchscherer, 29, was drafted originally by the Red Sox in 1996, but was dealt for Doug Mirabelli (Part I).  In his career with the A’s, he has emerged as one of the best middle relievers in the AL over the past 3 years.  In fact, if I really felt like playing the role of the pathetically miserable Red Sox fan, I could argue that the best middle relievers in each league were both traded by the Sox for Doug Mirabelli, on two separate occurrences.  Well, we did get some value from Mirabelli in his first tenure, but I digress.  Point is, Duchscherer can throw.

On the surface, 23 year old Chad Gaudin’s 2006 numbers look impressive: 55 games, 64 innings pitched, a 3.09 ERA. However, there is one major red flag here: 36/42 K/BB.  That’s not a typo, he walked more people than he struck out.  The control issues are uncharacteristic; he never displayed any serious issues in his brief major league career, or in the minors.  Look for him to come down to earth a bit in 2007, but nothing too drastic; the crazy peripherals appear to be an outlier.

Kiko Calero, one of the treasures acquired when the A’s sacked Busch Stadium, barbarically raping and pillaging the St. Louis front office in December of 2004, is perhaps the foremost swing-and-miss reliever on the roster.  With a career K/9 of 10.1, and an arsenal featuring a hard cutter, hard curve, and deceiving changeup, Calero forms an ominous bridge to Huston Street in the 9^th inning.

The lefty situation in Oakland is an interesting one.  Assuming Joe Kennedy makes the rotation, 26 year old Brad Halsey will be the lone returning lefty in the bullpen.  However, the A’s also signed 37 year old veteran reliever Alan Embree to a minor league contract.  Assuming the A’s go with 11 pitchers, one of these two will be the odd man out.  Embree’s performance is generally tough to predict, as he is rather old, and not the most consistent fellow, but he was very effective for San Diego in 2006. Brad Hasley was barely average in the pen and as a spot starter in 2006, and should not be considered an effective lefty-specialist candidate.  He actually had a bit of a reverse split last season (.924 OPS vs LH, .750 vs RH), and his 3 year splits against lefties are nearly as ugly as those against the right-handers.  One more variable to add: a dark horse.  Jay Marshall was selected by the A’s in the Rule 5 draft, from the White Sox.  Marshall is a bit of a long shot, considering he’s never pitched above high-A ball, but he is a left-handed reliever.  His numbers last year in high-A Winston-Salem are all fairly impressive, but one stat in particular stands out: Marshall held left-handers to a .096 batting average in 2006.  The 23 year old will get a look this spring, in the event that both Embree and Halsey are unimpressive. 

In his first and only season with the Oakland Athletics, Frank Thomas mashed to the tune of .270/.381/.545 with 39 HRs, sending a giant “F.U.” to his embittered ex-GM Kenny Williams in Chicago.  While the loss of Thomas leaves a giant, gaping, festering wound in the roster, Billy Beane replaces one future Hall of Famer with another Future Hall of Famer: Mike Piazza.  The longtime NL superstar signed a 1 year $8.5 million dollar deal, and is coming off a year in which he posted an .843 OPS while spending 99 of his 126 behind the plate for the Padres.  Piazza, who probably should have been converted to 1B at age 25, will be used strictly as a DH in Oakland.  While he shouldn’t be counted on to produce like the Big Hurt, it is reasonable to expect him to produce at roughly the same level as he did last year, perhaps with a slight improvement on 2006, considering he will no longer be donning the tools of ignorance.

Speaking of the tools of ignorance, Jason Kendall will return as the primary catcher for Oakland.  Kendall is a unique type of catcher, a guy who hits singles and occasionally steals bases, but has virtually no power.  He is a contact hitter with decent plate discipline, and could lead off.  However, his lack of power has become a bit of a crutch, as Kendall has posted 3 straight seasons with an on-base percentage higher than his slugging percentage.  Vying for the backup role is Adam Melhuse, the 35 year old incumbent who led the mutiny against ousted manager Ken Macha last season, and 27 year old Jeremy Brown, who was immortalized in Billy Beane’s epic literary masterpiece (sic).  Jeremy could likely out-hit Melhuse at this point, but Melhuse is much more experienced, and obviously more familiar with the current pitching staff.  Typically, the old salty Crash Davis type tends to win the backup catching job over the young unproven stud, but it will still be an interesting little spring subplot. 

The starting infield from 2006 will return intact, a tandem of 4 players who all had very disappointing seasons last year.  Eric Chavez hit .241, his lowest batting average in the majors, and posted a mediocre 106 OPS+ for the second straight season.  The carnage was the worse at SS, where the oft-injured Bobby Crosby had a disgustingly abysmal season.  Crosby, apparently possessed by The Ghost of Jackie Gutierrez, hit .229/.298/.338 in limited action.  Second baseman Mark Ellis came off a surprisingly productive 2005 campaign only to sputter in 2006 (.249/.319/.385), and Dan Johnson also slipped from a decent rookie year in 2005, posted a sub-par OPS+ of 85.  What can we expect from these guys in 2007?  All are healthy, and all appear to be a safe bet to improve upon their 2006 totals.  Both ZiPS and PECOTA are projecting significant improvements in 2007 for all 4 infielders (both projections systems yield similar results, except in the case of Bobby Crosby: PECOTA is a bit more bullish on the SS). 

Backing up the middle-infielders in 2006 was Marco Scutaro, who provided above average play as a stand-in for both Crosby and Ellis.  It is likely that the A’s begin the year with Scutaro as the only backup option at 2B, SS, and 3B, and use him in the likely event of an injury up the middle.  Piazza or Nick Swisher could be used to occasionally spell Johnson at 1B.  Daric Barton, the organization’s top hitting prospect, will be showcased this spring, but will be best served with a full season in the PCL, and a taste of The Show in September.

While Oakland’s infield suffered a serious power outage in 2006, the outfield did their best to pick up the slack.  Nick Swisher followed up a solid rookie year with a breakout season, slamming 35 HRs with an OBP of .372.  Although Swisher played a bunch of games at 1B in 2006, Billy Beane has gone on record with his plan to use the slugger primarily in left field this season.  Mark Kotsay will once again patrol CF in the shadow of Mount Davis (assuming the Lastings Milledge trade rumors don’t come to fruition.)  Kotsay is normally an average offensive outfielder, but his offense has been gradually declining: OPS+ in 2004-2006: 114, 95, 89.  Kotsay is 32 and has been increasingly brittle in recent years, making CF possibly the most glaring weakness on the team.  If Kotsay can provide replacement-level offense at the bottom of the order and competent defense up the middle, Oakland should be satisfied.  Oakland will be counting on a full healthy year from their volcanic right fielder, Milton Bradley.  When healthy, Milton can provide similar numbers to Nick Swisher: solid power with excellent plate discipline.  If he can avoid the DL and the wrath of the umpires, Milton could be a crucial cog near the top of the A’s lineup. 

The A’s will likely begin the season with 5 outfielders, with Bobby Kielty and yet another Rule 5 selection, this one from Cleveland: Ryan Goleski.  Kielty has proven to be a very useful backup, a replacement-level switch hitter who saw significant time in both corner outfield spots last season.  Goleski split the 2006 in between A and AA in the Indians system, combining for 27 HRs and an OPS around 1.000.  He is 25 years old, so there’s no risk in rushing him.  However, he did have wrist surgery in 2006, and may not be ready for spring training.  A DL stint would allow Oakland to hang onto him without keeping him on the roster (the Adam Stern rule), so don’t expect him back in Cleveland anytime soon. 

Last year, the Oakland A’s were remarkably successful, given the various setbacks to the team in 2006.  Considering this, one might assume that they should be able to waltz to 90+ wins with normal luck in 2007, even after losing Zito and Howard.

Not so fast.  Perhaps the A’s weren’t as unlucky as we would like to think in 2006.  Their Pythagorean record was 85-77, which they outpaced by 8 wins.  Their manager, Ken Macha was dismissed (primarily for personality reasons) after leading an overachieving team to the second round of the playoffs.  He is replaced by Bob Geren, a 45 year-old bench coach with zero MLB managing experience.  Can Geren duplicate Macha’s success with a roster which is, on paper, weaker than that of last season?  The team was hurt by devastating injuries in 2006, but will 2007 be any different? 

This year will be an interesting one for the Athletics.  The Angels and the Rangers both look tougher than they were in 2006.  Oakland has young talent all over the field, but there are health-related question marks, and there are performance-related question marks.  Can Rich Harden actually stay healthy?  Can Peter Gammons’ version of Bobby Crosby come back?  Is Eric Chavez now a JAG (Just Another Guy)?  Like every pre-season, Oakland will have their doubters.

I’m one of them. 

Prediction: 83-79

Top 10 Prospects:
Daric Barton 1B
Travis Buck OF
Jermaine Mitchell OF
Mac Suzuki C
Matt Suletnic OF
Trevor Cahill RHP
Javier Herrera OF
Craig Italiano RHP
Marcus McBeth RHP
Justin Sellers SS