Now that the rosters have expanded and the minor league season is winding down, this is as good a time as any to rank our prospects.

My definition of prospect is the generally accepted rookie definition: fewer than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.  Under this criteria, most of the younger guys promoted throughout the year (Kalish, Doubront, Reddick, Bowden) still qualify at this point.  Daniel Nava is only 13 at-bats away from reaching non-rookie status, and he’ll probably hit that milestone next week, so I’ll leave him off the list.

Ryan Kalish came into 2010 as a bit of an afterthought after names like Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, and Josh Reddick, but now he has a foothold in the crowded 2011 outfield picture after hitting .294/.382/.502 between AA and AAA and holding his own in a considerable MLB stint.  His presence may even allow the Sox to consider trade possibilities that would have been unheard of prior to this year.

I’m probably higher on Jose Iglesias than others, but there’s just something I find appealing about the prospect of stellar shortstop defense coupled with decent contact hitting.  Of course, the lack of power and plate discipline is a concern, and while the former will likely never fully develop, the latter could certainly be improved upon with another year of seasoning in the minors.  All in all, 2010 was a decent showing for a guy getting his first taste of professional baseball in America, and it appears as though he’s on track to take over for Marco Scutaro in 2012.

It’s really difficult to compare Anthony Rizzo and Lars Anderson at this point.  Both seem to have All-Star first baseman potential, but Rizzo has been rising quickly, while Anderson’s stock has been stagnant after he was a tad over-hyped in his first pro season.  Both players are young for their current levels, and both will likely repeat in AA and AAA next season, respectively.  While neither player’s overall numbers are eye-popping, it should be noted that Anderson hit .286./376./486 on the road in AAA, while RIzzo has his .268/.356/.497 after the All-Star break.

Casey Kelly came into the year as the consensus top pitching prospect in the organization, but he has been overmatching a bit in Portland this season after being aggressively promoted (like Anderson and Rizzo).  Right now, his fastball sits at around 91-92 MPH, so he’ll need to add some velocity if he is to reach his full potential.  Still, Kelly has shown excellent command of multiple pitches, and was one of the youngest starting pitchers in his league this season.  He has lots of time to develop.

With Iglesias receiving a lot of hype after his impressive debut, Yamaico Navarro is probably the most underrated prospect in the organization.  It appears that a lot of folks are fogetting that Iglesias isn’t the only decent SS prospect in the system.  Navarro, still only 22-years-old, has been very impressive since being promoted to Pawtucket, and even flashed competence during a brief trial in Boston.

Anthony Ranaudo is a 2010 bonus baby with a very high potential, albeit at a high risk.  He was the best pitcher in college baseball before suffering an elbow injury, and has yet to return to form.  Theo Epstein, as he is prone to do, shelled out top dollar for the high-upside arm in hopes that his potential will one day be realized.

Perhaps no other prospect saw his stock fall further (not including injured guys like Ryan Westmoreland and Junichi Tazawa) than Josh Reddick.  However, Reddick has been hitting very well lately, raking at a .363/.385/.643 clip since the All-Star break.  He still has the potential to be a decent starting outfielder at the Major League level, and his recent play has been very encouraging.

My favorite catcher in the system is the big-hitting Yalie, Ryan Lavarnway.  A lot of folks discount him due to his defensive shortcomings, but honestly, I cannot remember the last time the Red Sox employed the services of a strong throwing defensive catcher on a regular basis (as a starter).  The most recent guy I can think of would be Tony Pena, and I’d rather not see a return to those days.  It’s time to accept that a team can win with an all-bat/no-arm catcher.

The left-handed Felix Doubront (along with his RHP counterpart, Michael Bowden) has found a role on the major league staff by lending his arm to a decimated bullpen, and he has performed somewhat impressively there.  However, I think he still may have a career in the back-end of a major league rotation in his future, barring injury.  His potential is similar to the injured Junichi Tazawa.

All in all, it seems like a fairly deep minor league system, with a lot of new talent added via a strong draft and the Manny Delcarmen trade.  We’ll keep an eye on things as the Arizona Fall League and the winter leagues kick into gear.

In return for Manny Delcarmen and an undisclosed amount of cash, the Red Sox receive a 21-year-old A-ball pitcher by the name of Chris Balcom-Miller.

Just from eyeballing Balcom-Miller’s peripheral statistics this season (and not knowing anything about him from a scouting standpoint) I would guess that he might crack the bottom of the organization’s top 20 list.  His K/BB ratio certainly deserves some attention.

There will be no post-season in Boston this year.

I’ll have a more appropriate eulogy posted later on.  It’s too difficult to really delve into such a frustrating topic on a Monday morning.

So, how would his presence have helped the Red Sox?  The answer: probably not as much as you think.

Damon’s days as a competent center fielder are long behind him, and he is strictly a LF/DH now.  While he is a left-handed batter, he would ironically serve as a left-handed platoon role while here, since David Ortiz and Daniel Nava both crush right-handed pitching and would be occupying DH/LF against RHPs.  Here is how he compares to Darnell McDonald against left-handed pitching:

Johnny has had difficulty hitting for power against lefties, which would haunt the pull-hitter in a place like Fenway Park, where straight-away RF is very deep.  McDonald is also a better defensive player than Damon at this point in their careers.

Damon would be an improvement over David Ortiz as a DH against left-handed pitching, however, the Sox do have the option of playing Jed Lowrie or Jarrod Saltalamacchia at first base while DH’ing Mike Lowell, who can hit left-handers well when he’s healthy.

There is no question that Damon would improve depth on a team that has been incredibly snake-bitten in the injury department.  However, the euphoria over his possible return to the Red Sox was largely based on emotion and nostalgia.

Elitist Rant Warning:

Now that I’ve analyzed the on-field aspect of the Damon issue, it’s time for me to address “Red Sox Nation” (most of it, anyway).

We really need to stop treating professional athletes like they owe us something.  Johnny Damon was raised in Florida, and spent the majority of his pro career in the Kansas City Royals organization.  He came to the Red Sox in 2002 as a free agent in a lucrative deal (at the time) worth over $30 million dollars, ripped away from the small market Moneyball-era Oakland A’s in Dan Duquette’s final coup before his criminally underrated front-office career came to a close.  Before this contract was signed, Damon had absolutely no ties to the Red Sox organization.

While on the Red Sox, Damon provided the franchise and its fans with some of it’s finest moments.  Actually, as I write this, I can say that his grand slam in Game 7 of the ALCS might have been the happiest moment of my life (yes, I am a loser).  He almost single-handedly caused a riot of euphoria on the streets of Boston that night.

In return for his efforts, Damon was treated like a child molester when he returned to Fenway Park in another team’s uniform two years later.  His crime? Accepting a mega-contract valued at $12 million more than the next highest bidder.  $12 million dollars.  The Yankees overpaid a slightly past-his-prime Damon, a tactic they’ve been using somewhat successfully for quite some time now.  Let me be clear.  If you claim that you would turn down an extra 12 million dollars just to pacify a group of people with whom you have no familial connection, you are the fraud.  Not Damon.  You are.

And now, we fast-forward another four years.  Damon is a shell of the player he once was.  Now, his priority is the same as most aging athletes with multiple championship rings; to play in as many games as possible before his career ends.  For the reasons I outlined above, that would not happen in Boston.  So, he vetoed the deal, and now the reactionary idiots are again coming out of the woodwork with chants of “fraud” and “Judas”.   This is an ugly black-eye for Red Sox fandom.  This type of hysteria directly contradicts the “smartest fans in baseball” tag.

Take off the cheerleader’s outfit and try putting yourself in Damon’s shoes.  He has no reason to come here.

Side note:  does the Boston Globe seriously pay this guy?  This drivel sounds like it’s coming from some drunken frat boy outside of the Cask N’ Flagon, puking all of his plaid shorts and Birkenstocks in between Sweet Caroline chorus line chants.  Yes, bloggers are killing the newspaper industry, but this clown is doing it Trojan Horse style.

Our spirits are up after yet another Red Sox win due to a stellar effort from Clay Buchholz, whose ERA+ now sits at 194.  For some perspective on that, only two other AL pitchers have finished with a higher single-season ERA+ in the 21st century.  One of them, Zack Greinke, did it last season.  The other did it several times, and you can probably guess who that is.

Notes & Takeaways:

A sobering thought: Baseball Prospectus has the probability of the Red Sox making the postseason at 18.5%.  However, I don’t think this analysis includes the assumption that Dustin Pedroia may not return to the field this season.  Given this, I’d discount that number a bit, maybe to around 10-15%.  Now, try something for me.  Reach into your pocket and dig out a coin.  Try to flip “heads” three times in a row (you only get one chance, do not flip more than three times).  It probably didn’t happen, right?  Not to piss in your corn flakes, but the odds of you successfully pulling that off are roughly the same as the odds of the Red Sox playing baseball in mid October.

The Red Sox continue to dominate the 2010 iteration of the 21st century rivalry they’ve developed with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  Boston moves to 8-0 against the Angels this season after another terrific effort from Clay Buchholz, who now leads the American League in ERA.

Here’s a quick snapshot of the AL Cy Young race (the top 6 candidates in my opinion, sorted by innings count):

While King Felix should be in the discussion, his W/L record will disqualify him among the out-of-touch dinosaurs in the journalism community who cling to bubble-gum card statistics like an old teddy bear.  Buchholz has the Pedro-esque ERA+, but his relatively low innings total and low K rate will hurt his cause.

Jon Lester has a strong argument to be the leader here with strong numbers across the board, which is amazing given the streak of inconsistency he’s experienced recently.  I’m trying to be as objective as I can, but I think my vote would go in this direction if the season were to end today.

Notes and Takeaways:

• If you see throngs of chain-smoking, mildly attractive 23-year-old women sobbing outside of Fenway Park, it probably has something to do with this news.  Wicked sad.
• I kid around about Ellsbury, but his injury (another broken rib) is legit.  Just a terribly unlucky lost year for a guy who should be entering his prime.  A pet peeve of mine is when fans who have trouble walking up a flight of stairs without gasping for air decide to comment on the mental toughness of professional athletes.
• The starting outfield from here on out, barring a waiver wire deal, should be Nava-Kalish-Drew, with Darnell McDonald available as a defensive replacement.

Lost in the static of another frustrating defeat is the fact that Daisuke Matsuzaka once again pitched well, much better than his line score would indicate.  Two of his four earned runs crossed the plate when Michael Young took Manny Delcarmen deep with 2-outs in the 7th inning.

The Sox have blown come opportunities to keep up with/gain ground on the Wild Card leading Tampa Bay Rays, but unfortunately, the team can’t really find much consistency in the bullpen aside from one Daniel Bard.  In the last three Red Sox losses, the bullpen has done this:

Notes and takeaways:

• Some relief on the injury front: All-Star second baseman Dustin Pedroia should return to the lineup tonight.
• On the other side of the rehab spectrum; don’t start penciling Carlos Delgado into the roster just yet.  He left yesterday’s Pawsox game after the third inning with stiffness in his hip (an area he has had multiple surgeries on in the past).  Delgado has hit three singles in 13 at-bats thus far, with 6 Ks and no walks.

A while ago, I wrote a piece on outfielder Jim Edmonds, discussing whether or not he was Hall of Fame worthy.  Ultimately, I decided that he should eventually be enshrined in Cooperstown.  I’ll be conducting the same type of analysis on the newest member of the Red Sox organization.

This one will be a little trickier than the Edmonds analysis, due to Delgado’s position.  There have been a lot of 450-550-HR first baseman/corner outfielder types in MLB over the past 20 years, and not all of them are necessarily Hall of Fame worthy.

I’ll post my analysis and decision when I get a chance.

I’ve been following this baseball team closely for 22 years.  I can say, without hesitation, that this is the unluckiest Red Sox team of my lifetime.

I’m not usually a Chicken Little type, but with the Red Sox now 6.5 games behind a the wild card leader, their two best position players out for the next two weeks, and a 4-game series in Yankee Stadium on deck, this could very well be the killing blow for the team’s playoff hopes.

Update: 98.5 FM is reporting that Youkilis has torn a muscle in his thumb.  It could require surgery, and if it does, Youkilis is done for the year (as are his 24 teammates).

For fuck’s sake.