Ellsbury is the type of player who tends to be over-appreciated by the more casual fans, due to things like a high-yet-empty batting average and gaudy SB totals.  This isn’t to say that he’s not important to the team.  Considering all of Jacoby’s contributions to the field last year (offense, defense, baserunning), fangraphs.com valued him at about $8.4 million dollars, compared to his actual salary of $450,000.  And that’s while factoring in his piss-poor UZR in 2009.  Ellsbury is clearly a worthy player to have in our starting lineup, especially at his current cost.

This year will be slightly different for Ellsbury, as he makes the transition from CF to LF in the wake of defensive wizard Mike Cameron’s acquisition.  I’m going to put my word on the line here and predict a career year for Ellsbury in 2010.  There are several factors leading me toward this forecast:

1. Age: Jacoby will be 26/27 during the 2010 season.  He’s just entering his prime now; these are the years that most players tend to have their best performances.
2. Position Change: The difference in difficulty between LF and CF in Fenway Park is larger than Christina Hendricks‘ bosom.  Ellsbury will be far less strained when milling about the tiny left field in Fenway than he would be if he were to stay in CF.  All of the weaknesses he demonstrated in the field last year (weak throwing arm, questionable instincts) will be at least partially mitigated by this position change.  He may also benefit offensively from a less demanding defensive position that will allow him to concentrate on hitting and sprinting around the basepaths.
3. Experience: During his rookie year, it was clear that plate discipline was an area where Jacoby needed to improve.  Well, it looks like he has slowly been maturing at the plate.  In his first full season, Ellsbury’s K/BB ratio was roughly 2 to 1.  Last year, that number improved to 1.5 to 1.  It would be logical to expect yet another improvement in plate discipline from Ellsbury in 2010 after another year of MLB seasoning is under his belt.

Just to prove that I may not be completely insane here, I’ll post the Top 10 projected outfielders by Wins Above Replacement, as projected by CHONE:

Keep in mind, this is among all MLB outfielders, not just CF or LF.

So, it came as a surprise when LoHud issued a hilarious piece arguing that Derek Jeter is the greatest Yankee of all time.  Some reasons for why Jeter is better than Ruth/Gehrig/Mantle/Ford/Alviro Espinosa:

“Jeter has had to contend with a 24/7 media, with paparazzi following him and his girlfriends and reporting about his personal life in addition to his play on the field.”

The paragraph goes on to compare Minka Kelly (yeah, I don’t know who she is either) to Marilyn Monroe.

“In 2009, he passed Lou Gehrig as the Yankees hit leader…”

Gosh, I wonder why that is.  It’s almost as if there was some event that happened in Gehrig’s life that caused him to retire early.  Well, I’m drawing a blank.  Jeter has more hits, that’s the important takeaway here.

And here’s my favorite paragraph:

“His heart and passion (yes…more please) for the game can be found in his spectacular defensive plays (SPECTACULAR DEFENSIVE PLAYS) and clutch hits. Derek Jeter is the most clutch player ever to put on the pinstripes. There are no specific statistics for clutch situations (except for the one called “clutch” I suppose) but his play when the game on the line is incomparable that he has earned the nickname “Captain Clutch.” Jeter also gets credit for one thing that Gehrig, Ruth, DiMaggio or Mantle had to deal with: playing for George Steinbrenner. (Yeah, it has to suck playing for the owner that gave you one of the most lucrative contracts in the history of the game. Like Osama Bin Laden, I’m not even convinced that Steinbrenner is still alive.  And the owners during the 1910’s-1960’s were all notoriously ethical and gracious, I guess).

You can read the whole thing here: http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/02/pinch-hitting-chris-and-trevor-kaftan/

The hysteria over Captain UZR is a welcome sign akin to the Groundhog Day: baseball season is almost here.

While the projections do give Brian Shouse the best 2010 FIP, the system is assuming that he will continue to be used strictly as a LOOGY, which is something the Sox have not done recently.  Joe Nelson’s high walk rate hurts him, landing him with the worst predicted FIP among the group.  For some reason, Marcel really likes Scott Atchison, the enigmatic reliever coming across the Pacific after 2 seasons in the Japanese leagues.

If Boof Bonser is anything close to his former self after missing all of 2009 with a torn rotator cuff, he’s probably the favorite to land the position due to his ability to step into the rotation as an emergency starter (assuming such a move wouldn’t “disrespect” Tim Wakefield).  If Boof is toast, I’ll go out on a limb and say that the job comes down to Nelson or Atchison.  Shouse is too one dimensional, and Ramon A. Ramirez simply isn’t very good.

I’m mostly being a ball-buster here, as there are some similarities between the two players, and it’s only natural that Gary DiSarcina (the guy who made the comparison) would liken Westmoreland to one of his old teammates. Both players are roughly the same size, and if you look at Erstad’s minor league numbers, they aren’t too different from what you might expect from Westmoreland. I just got a chuckle out of the fact that the kid was compared to a player who is most known for garnering the “gritty/scrappy” tag, something we elitist bloggers like to poke fun at every once in a while.

Anyway, I’ll just paste the key excerpts from the above Projo article here:

“makeup”
“play the game the right way”
“like a freight train”
“hard-nosed attitude”

Hey, it could be worse.  He could have been compared to Mark Kotsay.  (If that actually happens, I’ll probably quit following baseball and start a meth lab or hike the Appalachian Trail or something.  If your #1 prospect is the next Mark Kotsay…what’s the point? Of anything?)

Edmonds is an interesting case; a guy who was generally regarded as an excellent fielder by his peers (he’s won multiple Gold Glove Awards in CF), but is sometimes considered overrated by the gatekeepers of advanced defensive metrics.  The one item not up for debate is the quality of his bat, as his career OPS+ of 132 places him squarely among a group of several Hall of Fame outfielders.

I went back and looked at the career Wins Above Replacement Player for a bunch of well-known outfielders. I didn’t have much of a scientific method for picking the names, I was basically aiming for guys who were considered excellent outfielders without being Willie Mays-level elite. Some of them are in the Hall of Fame, the others are in the “Hall of Very Good”.

Here are the results (names in blue are Hall of Famers):

I would never have guessed his case would be this easy, but it appears that Edmonds clearly deserves to be enshrined, if historical consistency is to be maintained. He might have to wait a few years due to some bozos not considering him a “first ballot Hall of Famer”. Seriously, what kind of logic is that? Being a Hall of Famer should be akin to being pregnant: you are or you aren’t. Unless I’m missing something, Jim is.

However, every once in a while, usually when Wakefield’s role is a topic of debate, the team’s senior member will cause a small stir with a quote here and there.  This hasn’t happened in 5 years or so (I don’t think we’ve seen it happen since his run-in with Aaron Boone in 2003), but Wakefield is once again demanding “respect”.

Here’s the most eyebrow-raising portion of his interview with the Herald:

“Hopefully they respect me enough to give me the ball when we get to spring training as a member of this rotation. I think I’ve earned the right to be a full-time starter and go from there,…I did make the All-Star team last year. It seems every year, and I don’t know why, my name gets brought up like this when I don’t feel I need to prove myself every day. I don’t know where the rumors are coming from, but I try not to pay attention. I know my role and I know what my approach is going to be when I get to spring training: be a starter and help us win the World Series.”

Yikes.  I hate to go all Nancy Kerrigan’s Brother on the poor old guy, but let’s break this down.

“Hopefully they respect me enough to give me the ball when we get to spring training as a member of this rotation. I think I’ve earned the right to be a full-time starter and go from there.”

Dude, really?  “Respect”?  You’re a 43-year-old who just posted the lowest innings total and lowest K/9 ratio of your Red Sox tenure last year.  Remember how people responded when Pedro Martinez pulled the “respect” card?  Well, he was a Hall of Famer in his prime.  Maybe rethink the use of that word?

“I did make the All-Star team last year.”

Holy shit.  I honestly had to rub my eyes to make sure I wasn’t hallucinating here.  He did not just say…wait, yes he did.  Everyone knows that the All-Star appointment was charity for a guy who has been underappreciated throughout the bulk of his long yet dwindling career.  The logic was “Hey, Wakefield has a few wins and hasn’t embarrassed himself on the mound this year.  He’s been around forever and has never made an All-Star team.  Look, I know there are a dozen more deserving pitchers, but let’s throw the old guy a bone, shall we?”  There’s no way his All-Star berth should be used as evidence for anything other than the fact that sentimentality is not yet dead among baseball people.

“It seems every year, and I don’t know why, my name gets brought up like this when I don’t feel I need to prove myself every day.”

You are the 6th-best starter currently on the roster, and the rotation can only fit 5 pitchers.  It’s not exactly quantum physics, sport.

“I don’t know where the rumors are coming from, but I try not to pay attention.”

I wouldn’t really classify them as “rumors” per se.  A more appropriate classification might be “the writing on the wall”.

“I know my role…”

Wow, that’s amazing.  You might want to clue your manager into this knowledge.  I’m sure he would be relieved to have a resolution to the dilemma that is Tim Wakefield’s role.

“and I know what my approach is going to be when I get to spring training: be a starter and help us win the World Series.”

You got moxie, kid.  You got fire.  I like that about you.

Hermida, likely Boston’s fourth outfielder to begin the season, was making $2.25 million last year.  His new salary appears to be close to what he would have received in arbitration.

Pedroia’s Premium Salsa.  Because, nothing says “tasty Latin cuisine” like a short white guy with premature baldness.  I’m greatly looking forward to the day Jacoby Ellsbury’s wasabi hits the shelves.

Notes:

• I hate to be yet another guy on the internet shitting on Brett Favre and his apologists, but I’m an unoriginal lemming and I just can’t help myself.  My favorite line from last night’s broadcast, after Favre literally threw the season away: “You play 19 years in this league, you’re bound to have three or four mistakes like that.“  Three or four, hmm?
• That game winning field goal looked like it would have gone 60 yards.
• All is quiet on the Red Sox front, but here’s a nice Projo article on the international prospect development efforts in the organization.

The problem with paying Papelbon elite money this year is that he has one more year of arbitration coming in 2011.  If he has a season similar to his performances in 2006-2009 (and given the consistency he’s displayed, the smart money is on him doing it), he’s going to be commanding a crazy salary in 2011, one that might eclipse the value of his services.

Considering the fact that the Red Sox have the luxury of a cost-controlled power arm in Dan Bard, a guy who Bill James projects to strike out 70 in 54 innings while posting an ERA around 3.00 in 2010, it might make sense to deal Papelbon before the 2011 season and fill a need somewhere else on the roster.  This is especially the case if Papelbon starts to go on his “I want to make history for closers” crusade.

There will be no need to deal with that type of drivel next winter.

Two of the favorites to sign Bay (the Red Sox and the Mets) offered staggeringly different contract terms.  The Sox offered a conservative 2-year deal after becoming suspicious of Bay’s health, while the Mets signed Bay to an aggressive 4-year deal, on that could turn into a 5-year deal if certain incentives are met.  Three or four years from now, it will be rather easy to point at one team and say “smart move” (or, if you are the glass-half-empty type, you can point at the other team and say “YOU FOOLS”).

I can’t help but be reminded of the departure of Pedro Martinez.  The Mets aggressively signed the aging superstar to a 4-year deal despite glaring injury concerns.  It was a mistake, and they paid the price ($50,000,000, to be exact).

When I look at the hobbled Jason Bay in that big ole’ National League park, it’s hard to imagine a different outcome.